2008 Giants: September PQS

This post has the Giants Pure Quality Start scores for the month of September 2008, PQS as defined in Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster annual book and they published the details here. I wrote on this first in 2006 and have compiled their stats on a regular basis, so I'm continuing it this season for continuity and historical comparison (there is the "PQS" label that you can click to see the old posts on this).

This is the Quality Start with a sabermetric DIPS twist, and it gets really easy to calculate once you get used to it. I don't think it's the end all or be all, but then nothing really is that. It is, as I like to say, another piece of the puzzle. A dominating start is scored a 4 or 5 and a disaster start is scored a 0 or 1. DOM% is the percentage of starts that are dominating, DIS% is the percentage of starts that are disasters (any start under 5.0 IP is automatically a 0, or disaster).

Basically, you want to see a pitcher's DOM% to be over 40% and ideally over 50%, and you want their DIS to be under 20% and ideally under 10%. For example, Johan Santana has a 76% DOM and 3% DIS in 2006 (2.77 ERA), whereas Orlando Hernandez had a 52% DOM and 28% DIS (4.66 ERA), and Adam Eaton had a 31% DOM and 31% DIS (5.12 ERA). See my explanation down below on methodology plus read the link, there's a nice chart there showing the combination of high DOM% and low DIS%, and particularly how low DIS% is so important.

Giants Starters' Final PQS for 2008 Season

Matt Cain - (56% DOM, 9% DIS; 19:3/34): 3, 0, 4, 0, 5, 2, 4, 4, 3, 4, 5, 5, 3, 4, 5, 5, 3, 5, 3, 5, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 5, 3, 4, 2, 3, 0, 4, 4, 3

Kevin Correia - (37% DOM, 26% DIS; 7:5/19): 4, 4, 4, 1, 3, 1, 4, 2, 0, 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 0, 4, 2, 0 (did not count start where injured)

Brad Hennessey - (0% DOM, 33% DIS; 0:1/3): 3, 3, 0, 3

Tim "The Kid" Lincecum - (79% DOM, 3% DIS; 27:1/34): 4, 5, 4, 4, 3, 5, 4, 5, 4, 5, 3, 3, 5, 5, 2, 3, 5, 4, 3, 5, 4, 5, 5, 5, 4*, 5, 5, 5, 4, 5, 5, 5, 0, 5 (didn't count relief outing as start; * start where he was injured by batted ball, just 2 outs away from DOM 4 game so I gave it to him.)

Pat Misch - (38% DOM, 38% DIS; 3:3/8): 4, 0, 4, 4, 2, 0, 2, 0 (counted relief after Zito since 6 IP)

Matt Palmer - (0% DOM, 67% DIS; 0:2/3): 0, 3, 0

Jonathan Sanchez - (45% DOM, 31% DIS; 13:9/29): 0, 5, 2, 3, 5, 3, 0, 0, 5, 3, 5, 5, 4, 2, 5, 5, 5, 4, 0, 3, 0, 0, 3, 4, 5, 0, 5, 0, 0

Barry Zito - ( 28% DOM, 34% DIS; 9:11/32): 1, 1, 3, 3, 0, 0 (Skip), 4, 3, 2, 4, 4, 0, 1, 1, 0, 4, 2, 5, 2, 3, 2, 3, 1, 3, 3, 3, 0, 4, 5, 0, 5, 4

Giants season overall - 48% DOM, 22% DIS out of 140 games counted (78:35/162)

Giants Month of April - 43% DOM, 32% DIS out of 30 games counted (12:9/28)

Giants Month of May - 63% DOM, 15% DIS out of 28 games counted (17:4/27)

Giants Month of June - 48% DOM, 22% DIS out of 27 games counted (13:6/27)

Giants Month of July - 40% DOM, 12% DIS out of 26 games counted (10:3/25)

Giants Month of August- 45% DOM, 17% DIS out of 29 games counted (13:5/29)

Giants Month of September - 50% DOM, 31% DIS out of 25 games counted (13:8/26)

First, some procedural notes. I didn't count Lincecum's relief session as a start, nor did I count it as a start for Valdez, in the D-gers game. I also didn't count Correia's injury start where he only pitched a third of an inning. However, I did count Misch's first outing, in relief of Zito, as a start because he went 6 innings and I felt he deserved it. And I counted Lincecum's start as a valid scoring start when he was injured by a batted ball, as he was dominating up to that point and only needed two more outs to reach 5 IP and get a DOM 4; procedurally, he should have gotten a 0.

In September, it was all Lincecum, all the time, again. But Zito was also dominating as well, his extra velocity started paying off and he had 4 DOM starts, one behind Lincecum's 5. Cain and Sanchez had 2 each, and only Sanchez had more than 2 DIS starts; he had 3.

Zito appears to be well on his way back, unlike last year's season ending spurt which gave false hope. However he has done it - finally letting go of the contract amount, getting advice from his former pitching coach who was fired earlier mid-season, whatever - he has been able to up his velocity back up to the 88 MPH range where he was previously when younger and where he appears to need to be in order to be successful with his stuff. This was evidenced by his ability to strike out at least the innings pitched minus 2 necessary to qualify for a DOM point, plus get at least twice as much strikeouts as walks, through most of September.

Strikeouts are very important to DOM starts. Strikeouts are a key component to two DOM points - K >= IP minus 2 and K >= twice BB - making it a critical element of a dominating game, PQS-wise. It also makes it harder overall for hits (less AB's to get hits in) and thus is affecting whether the pitcher can keep his hits total equal to or less than his IP. The last two points are not related at all to strikeouts, IP >= 6.0 and HR <>

What's Good and What's Not

A DOM at or above the 40% mark is indicative of good pitching; above 50% is great; above 70% is elite. A low DIS is also indicative of good pitching, just look at the table in the link above showing DOM% and DIS% on the axes. Thus what Correia has done so far in limited starts is still good, and that's why he earned a spot in the starting position for the 2008 season.

If you had to chose a high DOM% or a low DIS%, pitchers tend to have a lower ERA when you have a low DIS% vs. a high DOM% (obviously if you combine both, you have a much better chance of having an elite pitcher). That's how Lowry was able to pitch well last year, keeping his ERA low while still recovering from his strained oblique and being unable to strike out hitters as much as before, he had very few disaster starts until he had his arm problems and got bombed in September, he had a good ERA, in the high 3's until those starts.

2008 Season Comments

Overall, our rotation was top-notch in 2008. Lincecum's DOM is still up among the elites of the majors, if not the best in the majors, Cain is up among the best in the majors, even Sanchez is up among the good pitchers in the league, and maligned Correia is up among the OK pitchers of the league. Overall, our rotation is, as a whole, ranked almost among the best pitchers (best pitchers have DOM 50% and higher). Few teams have a couple of starters who can be as dominating as 50% DOM and yet our rotation as whole is capable of doing that, led, of course, by Lincecum.

But Cain was very good too. Despite the many fans who think that Cain is not worth keeping or think that he's not very reliable or consistent, Cain was very good, as only very good pitchers have a 56% DOM and only among the best of the best can also keep their DIS down below 10% like Cain did as well. What he did in 2008 would be worthy of Ace status on almost any other staff other than the Giants, Lincecum's feats put Cain's in a long, dark shadow that hid his accomplishments away from some fans. Hopefully this will help illuminate his prowess and give him the credit that should be due him.

Obviously, Lincecum and Cain are the aces of the staff, but Sanchez when he was going good, was pitching at a level of an ace, he had 8 DOM starts out of 11 starts with no DIS starts, when he was going good. In fact, after his first 19 starts, he had 10 DOM starts, 3 DIS starts for a 53% DOM and 16% DIS overall, which is excellent for a pitcher over a full season, and he was about two-thirds through. Unfortunately, the wheel went off the cart at that point, and he had 6 DIS starts out of 11 after that (though still with 3 DOM starts), and he had a 45% DOM for the season, which is good for a starter; his downfall was his 31% DIS.

The best keep their DIS under 10%, the better ones keep it under 20%; 31% is plain horrible. That's what he needs to fix, but given his great 19 starts to start the season, it appears that his lack of conditioning for starting previously led to a dead arm for much of the rest of the season, as evidenced by the 6 DIS starts out of 11. In all likelihood, he should be much better in 2009.

Then there was Zito. He was horrible for much of the season, but slowly improved, with two steps forward, one or two step back, until he had his wonderful month of September. If he can continue throwing like he did in September, our top 4 of the rotation will be top notch in all of the majors. But after two years of mis-starts and bad pitching, we will have to wait and see if he can finally deliver.

Lastly, the #5 starter spot was horrible this season, though Correia pitched in a lot of bad luck, his DOM was up there among OK starters, which is great for a #5 back of the rotation starter. However, it has been speculated that he will be too expensive to keep and might get released. Given how poorly he did, he can't be expecting a raise, so perhaps he an stick around for around $1M for 2009. We will see, but if he's healthy and starting like he has shown he can do, our rotation will be excellent, best in the majors, as Correia can pitch like a middle rotation guy at times, like a good starter at other times, which is excellent coming from the back of the rotation.

Amazingly enough, if Lowry can come back and pitch like he used to, taking over the #5 rotation spot, our rotation could potentially (if Sanchez and Zito can continue to do well) not have many weak points during the season as Lowry is capable of at least mid-rotation performance. That's what gets me excited about the Giants future, most teams have a lousy #5 starter and a lot have a lousy #4 starter as well, but the Giants could potentially fill the rotation with pitchers capable of #1 and #2 type performances, all with ERA's under 4.00.

40 Man Rostering

Ran across some roster moves by the Giants during the month of September that might not have gotten much press as the season waned:

• Guillermo Rodriguez was released, apparently to add Scott McClain to the 40 man roster. G-Rod's days were numbered once Pablo "Kung Fu Panda" Sandoval came up and started hitting from the beginning and never stopped.
• Clay Timpner was removed from the 40-man roster in order to add Conor Gillaspie. It appears that no team picked up Timpner, a classic Giants prospect: great defense but can't really hit.
• Matt Palmer and Brian Horwitz were both removed from the 40-man roster. It appears that neither was picked up on waivers, so they are both still in the system. I'm not surprised by Palmer, but Horwitz I thought might be picked up by an AL team, he would be a natural as a DH, that is, if the power he showed this season can be duplicated at the MLB level, as his defense apparently was pretty bad.
• Vinnie Chulk was granted free agency. No more jokes using his last name for Giants fans. Not sure how or why he outgrew his welcome, he did pretty well for them last season but not so much this season, and from what I recall, he did not go down to the minors quietly either, which Brian Sabean does not like, vocally negative players (or was that Messenger?). I suppose it also has to do with his age (he'll be 30 next season), his lack of a strikeout pitch, his lack of control (didn't have a very high K/BB ratio, meaning his walk rate was too high for his K-rate), and his probably being arbitration eligible, which would mean a payday boost from the $396,000 he got this season to probably somewhere between $750K and $1M. Thanks for the 2006 and great 2007 seasons, good luck whereever you land.

The 40 man roster, however, is basically full right now, there are 41 players listed, with Valdez and Lowry not counting because of the 60 day DL list. Vizquel and Aurilia will clear out spots when they become free agents. It has been rumored/speculated in various Giants water coolers that Correia, Hennessey, Taschner, and/or Walker will be released because of their salaries. None of them are scheduled for big raises, so I don't agree, but this is a possibility so I note it.

Alfonzo could be part of that as well, particularly with Sandoval and Holm around. Plus Yabu is 40 now, so he could possibly go as well. And McClain could be dropped as well. And if the Giants finally decide to go with Schierholtz in RF, they will gain a spot when Winn gets traded to open a spot for Schierholtz. Lastly, Ishikawa, I am pretty sure, is out of options, and if he took a bench spot behind Sandoval, he would be there as defense at 1B in late game situations and a power lefty bat off the bench, which is not what Sabean has looked for in his bench players, he prefers flexibility in positions played, so Ishikawa could be gone as well.

Giants Bonuses Among Top 10 for International Signings

According to Baseball America data, the Giants have two of the Top 10 highest bonuses paid ever to international amateur free agents and five of them were paid in 2008 (and one in 2006, Villalona). The rest were around the turn of the millenium when I guess teams were flush with cash before the tech bubble burst:

1. Michel Inoa (2008): RHP Athletics, age 16, Dominican Republic, $4.25 million
2. Rafael Rodriguez (2008): OF Giants, age 16, Dominican Republic, $2.55 million
3. Yorman Rodriguez (2008): OF Reds, age 16, Venezuela, $2.5 million
4. Wily Mo Pena (1999): OF Yankees, age 17, Dominican Republic, $2.44 million
5. Joel Guzman (2001): SS Dodgers, age 16, Dominican Republic, $2.255 million
6. Byung-Hyun Kim (1999): RHP Diamondbacks, age 20, South Korea, $2.25 million
7. Chin-Hui Tsao (1999): RHP Rockies, age 18, Taiwan, $2.2 million
8. Angel Villalona (2006): 3B Giants, age 16, Dominican Republic, $2.1 million
9. Tied. Juan Duran (2008): OF Reds, age 16, Dominican Republic, $2 million
   Tied. Adys Portillo (2008): RHP Padres, age 16, Venezuela, $2 million

As much as we should be buoyed by the fact that Villalona has been highly rated in most prospect rankings, and has done well in the minors thus far, the highly paid bonus babies have been pretty highly lousy busts: Wily Mo Pena, Joel Guzman, Byung-Hyun Kim, and Chin-Hui Tsao.

• Wily Mo Pena: His talent, as well as his lack of major league success, is demonstrated by the fact that he has been with four different organizations already and probably will be with another soon while getting the highest bonus at that time, and which held as the highest until three bonuses beat him in 2008. He made the majors in 2002 by age 20 with the Reds, a year after the Yankees traded him to the Reds, after hitting 26 homers the season before in Advanced A-ball with a .794 OPS and 11 homers in 2002 but .732 OPS in AA. Frankly, he never really had much success in the minors other than in 2001 at age 19 in Advanced A-ball, and has not really played much in the minors since 2002. The Reds from 2003 to 2005, gave him a lot of chances to stick in the majors, and he actually did OK with them, compiling OPS+ of 70, 115, and 105 with them, before being traded to the Red Sox for Bronson Arroyo just before the 2006 season - the Reds did real well with him, trading Drew Henson and Michael Coleman to the Yankees for him, then getting Arroyo in return. Serves Boston right, Arroyo had just signed a cheaper contract with a home discount before getting dealt off, they could have used his pitching since then. Meanwhile, Pena posted a 110 OPS+ in 2006 but regressed badly in 2007 before rebounding when the Red Sox traded him to the Nationals, where he had a 124 OPS+. However, he regressed horribly in 2008 with a 34 OPS+, so he's probably going to be let go, though somebody will probably give him a chance, like Florida, who actually picked up Todd Linden from us and gave Dallas McPherson a chance too (people complained about not getting him, but he chose not to deal with the Giants). His main problem was his inability to hit RHP and his penchant for strikeouts, but he could mash LHP!
• Joel Guzman: Signed by the D-gers in 2001 for the then second highest bonus, he has done little in the majors, getting a short callup with the D-gers in 2006 and Rays in 2008, showing little each time, who picked him and Sergio Pedroza up in a trade of Julio Lugo to the D-gers. Unlike Pena, Guzman has had some good years in the minors, struggling initally like Pena, but then breaking out with a great year in Advanced A and AA in 2004 at age 19. He showed it was not a fluke in 2005 at age 20 in AA, then had another good year in 2006 at age 21 in AAA while with the D-gers, though struggling once traded to the Rays. He has continued to struggle in 2007 and 2008, posting basically 700 OPS, though slugging 20 homers in 2008. Seems like the trade really messed him up, but in any case, he'll be 24 next season, don't hit for average, no walks, strikes out a lot, no speed, just swings for the fences.
• Byung-Hyun Kim: He has been the biggest success, by far, but given how much he was given - the highest bonus given to any amateur until beat by Pena a month or two later - he is still a disappointment. He did really well early on, becoming the D-backs closer at age 21 in 2000, saving 14 games, the 19 games in 2001, then 36 games in 2002, with sterling ERAs in the 2's. However, he really felt that he was a starter, not a closer, so in 2003, they acquiesed and after 7 games, where he did OK as a starter, he was traded to Boston for the Shea Hillenbrand, where he did well in starts too, but was thrust in a closer role again. However, not sure what happened in 2004, perhaps an injury, but he didn't play much for the Red Sox, ending up getting 20 starts in the minors but doing horrible there. Then in spring training 2005, he was traded to the Rockies for the aging Charles Johnson and Chris Narveson. He pitched a lot for the Rockies, starting 49 games in 2005 and 2006, but also relieving a few games too. In 2007, he was shipped to the Marlins for Jorge Julio, then was selected off waivers by the D-backs in late 2007 before getting released again and signing with the Marlins, who also released him and he signed with the Pirates for 2008 but let go before the season started, his career over at age 29. He did not make the majors in 2008. Overall, he has been a huge success relative to the others here, but he had three good seasons, from 2001-2003, but mostly bad seasons, particularly after 2003. Perhaps his differentiator - he was known as one of the hardest throwing submarine pitchers ever - was his downfall, taking a toll on his arm and body, as he lost velocity, affecting his control as his walks went up and strkeouts went down.
• Chin-Hui Tsao: He has had extended cups of coffee in the majors from 2003 to 2007, but nothing to write home about other than his short 10 games stint in 2004 as a reliever. He did very well in 2000 at age 19, but must have had an injury as he didn't play much in 2001, however, he appeared to recover as he did well in 2002 in both levels of A-ball, and continued to do well in 2003 at AA. However, that was his last good extended season in the minors, as he hasn't played much in the minors since, it appears he sat on the bench a lot in the majors, could have missed much of 2006 due to injury, before he became a free agent and signed first with the Dodgers in 2007, then the Royals for 2008, before getting dropped fast as he wasn't doing well. He played in the 2008 Olymjpics for Taiwan.

Obviously, the first thing to note is that Villalona is not any of these people, everybody is a different person. That said, each got a large bonus and yet did not produce much at the major league level, so before people automatically write his name into the lineup for 2011 and beyond, they should realize that he has a lot of development to go before he makes it to the majors, as prospects could do well in the minors and not make it. Same for Rafael Rodriguez.

However, Angel was only 17 and already in A-ball, none of the above did that (Pena reached the Sally League late in his age 18 season, Guzman at the start of his age 18 season, Kim was already 20 when he signed, and Tsao was already 18 when signed), and he was among the leaders in homers hit, as well as doing OK in OPS, his .747 OPS compared favorably with the league OPS of .707, though obviously at 1B, he should be a lot better as 1B need to deliver more offense (Neither Pena nor Guzman did well early on, not until they were 19).

Then again, given how poorly Giants firstbasemen have delivered for so many years, including JT Snow once Pac Bell Park (then SBC then AT&T) opened up, even a league average OPS firstbaseman would be great.

In addition, he got better as he progressed. He did not do very well his first four months in A-ball but in August, he figured things out and hit .308/.363/.529/.892 with 5 homers in 104 AB. Unfortunately, he still struck out a lot, 22 strikeouts for a 78% contact rate in August (when 85% is the minimum to be a good rate), and only walked 3 times, though getting hit 6 times. And after hitting into 5 DP in April in 80 AB, he only hit into 3 more in the next 388 AB (about 400 PA).

Last word of caution here: while Villalona made many of Baseball America's writers Top 50 list for the 2008 season, so did Joel Guzman for the 2006 season, and he was similarly ranked. Jim Callis had him 29th, Will Lingo had him 12th, and Allan Simpson had him 18th; must give John Manuel his due, he did not list Guzman in his Top 50. Potential is a large portion of this ranking, and sometimes players never reach their potential.

Angel Villalona will probably be at San Jose for 2008, his age 18 season, and could get jumped to AA if he does well there, though most probably he won't get promoted unless he is totally dominating the pitchers there. Most probably will be left there because if he does well, he would then move to AA in 2009 when he's 19, then AAA in 2010 when he's 20. If he's still rocking the pitchers, then he could get a call-up in September 2010 or even be the starting 1B or 3B for the 2011 season. Or he could get derailed, as most minor leaguers do, somewhere in AA and AAA, and flopping like his fellow high bonus babies. It will be an interesting next 2-3 seasons.

P.S. If the list was extended, the following two high bonus prospects would have showed up, Chien-Ming Wang and Miguel Cabrera, and they both were high bonuses at the time of their signing, probably in the Top 5. So not every high-priced bonus baby flops; however, a high bonus does not automatically mean success.

P.S.S. I had previously noted the Giants signing of RHP Luis Mateo - he had gotten $625,000 which was among the Top 20 bonuses paid this season - but the Giants voided his contract in August when they discovered bone chips in his elbow and thus he is a free agent once again.