Now that Posey is in charge, I thought it would be interesting to see what the Giants are trying to do this season, which, to me, is very much like last season. And dig into where they are going to put all these pitchers.
{Note: wrote most of this before Opening Day; obviously, the pitching has been pretty good so far}
ogc thoughts
Below I collected the Fangraph Depth Chart forecasts for the unproven starting pitchers who are in their 20’s or just unproven (Bivens):
|
SP Projected ERA (FG DC) |
2024 |
2025 |
|
Prior season NL SP ERA |
4.56 |
4.26 |
|
Landen Roupp |
4.11 |
3.85 |
|
Tristan Beck |
4.46 |
3.94 |
|
Jordan Hicks |
3.90 |
4.06 |
|
Ethan Small |
4.55 |
4.03 |
|
Sean Hjelle |
4.50 |
3.87 |
|
Kyle Harrison |
4.15 |
4.07 |
|
Carson Whisenhunt |
4.25 |
3.97 |
|
Carson Seymour |
4.64 |
4.00 |
|
Trevor McDonald |
4.98 |
4.13 |
|
Carson Ragsdale |
5.13 |
4.06 |
|
Mason Black |
4.23 |
4.22 |
|
Keaton Winn |
4.20 |
3.98 |
|
Hayden Birdsong |
4.78 |
4.23 |
|
Spencer Bivens |
- |
4.32 |
Again, the Giants are relying on a ton of pitching prospects with some proven performances in the minors that they need to prove now in the majors, what their actual MLB performance is. And I didn’t include others like Whitman and Choate, who had good minor league seasons last year, or Spencer Howard, who was good in spots.
But based on the above projections, they have 13 pitchers in their 20’s who are projected (50/50 chance of beating their projection) to beat the average 2024 NL SP ERA of 4.26. Which is good since the rotation has a lot of question marks.
The only non-question mark is Logan Webb.
- Robbie Ray is entering his second recovery post-TJS season and should be ready to return to his normal standards, but now he needs to do it, and likely will, especially with his new pitch he learned, but everyone recovers differently, so he will need to show he can.
- Justin Verlander appears to know his body well, thinks he has solved his physical problems of last season, he actually pitched well, with an xERA of 3.78 per StatCast, but he’s 42 YO and maybe something else that he didn’t anticipate (like he did last season) goes wonky and he misses games. The good news is he has looked great so far.
- Jordan Hicks has built up his body to be ready for a full season of starting, which started out spectacularly last season but ended in fatigue, but he’s a diabetic and he misjudged what he needed last season, plus has only 109.2 IP (last season) as his max IP, so the question is whether he can last a full season of at least 150 IP (to up to 180 IP if he’s averaging 6 innings per start).
- Then there’s the 5th starter. Roupp only had 107.1 IP as his max, and only 76.2 IP last season. Harrison had his max last season with 124.1 IP, and so 150 innings is likely his max. Black is in a similar situation with a similar max IP. Birdsong is being extended after being a reliever in college, but is at a max 129.1 IP last season, a jump of 29 innings. Whisenhunt has been limited by injuries, as have Winn and Beck. And the rest likely has been slow played under Zaidi.
So it’s pretty clear that the Giants are likely to not get through this season with just five starters, or even six. And that’s okay, most teams go through a lot of AAAA or worse pitchers at the back of the rotation.
Moreover, at the same time, they have over a dozen pitchers who are projected to be above average ERA with their ERA in 2025. So they look like they can go very deep into this group of young pitchers and find the ones who can perform this season.
And that can be a strength if the Giants can figure out who are the performers by midseason, as most teams struggle to field a credible MLB starter in the back of their rotation, that’s the norm. Even the Dynasty Giants had issues with their 5th starter, and as much as Zito was hated for his contract, he was a steady performer in the 4th spot for us, which saved us from the ups and downs while cycling through a bunch of lousy options there (and he wasn’t lousy except when injured or his final season, he was decidedly around average or slightly below). Many teams' seasons died because they could not find a reliable 4th starter to stabilize the back of the rotation.
Who’s on First?
So the question I wanted to explore here is where they will stash all these pitchers? There’s only so many SP in the majors and presumably they want to keep them all extended and SP, so how will that work out in AAA?
The MLB roster looks mostly set. The SP are Webb, Verlander, Ray, Hicks, and one of Roupp, Harrison, Birdsong, with the two others ending up in AAA starting rotation.
The bullpen is comprised of Walker, Doval, Rogers, Miller, Lou Trivino (who played under Melvin before with the Oakland Athletics), Rodriguez, Bivens (who earned himself the long relief role with what he did last season, plus he’s 31 YO for this season, need to see what he can do), with Birdsong as the surprise last reliever.
Birdsong is a surprise, as it cost Hjelle his position, which he earned last season. However, Hjelle made this possible with a poor spring, while Birdsong pitched very well, and the Giants clearly wanted to reward him somehow, since Roupp was given the 5th spot. As Posey noted, they will still pitch Birdsong multiple innings, and undoubtedly, will be sent to AAA to get extended as a starter, because he's not a reliever, and clearly part of their future rotation, because of his great stuff. I expect Hjelle to brought back up at that point, assuming he does as well as I expect him to do.
And while Birdsong had a bad last spring start, the Giants could have chose him based on what he had done before in spring. This is where the Giants have to prioritize opportunities. Roupp is already 26 YO, if it doesn't happen this season, he might be worth much, but if he breaks out, he's very valuable. Meanwhile, Birdsong (and Harrison) are only 23 YO, and getting another year of control (since they will not be in the majors much in 2025, if all goes well) during the (hopefully) competitive era that might be springing forth this season.
AAA Conundrum (A great problem to have)
So the Sacramento Wildcats will have a loaded rotation. First, Harrison and eventually Birdsong will be in the rotation, and they will likely be MLB quality starters already. Then there’s Winn and Beck, as well.
Then there’s the other pitchers. Black has proven himself in the minors, enough such that projections for two seasons have been a good 4.22-23, which means another MLB quality pitcher in the rotation. Then there's Whisenhunt who has been rated the best MiLB changeup (70 on scouting scale per MLB Pipeline) the past two seasons, and while his 2024 season looks horrendous, his ERA at home in Sacramento, which plays more neutral, was a great 2.34, which is a great performance, and he just needs to get things working in less than ideal conditions. And he’s projected at 3.97 ERA in majors this season.
With him, that’s potentially 5-6 starting pitchers, and we haven’t gotten to Bivens, Small, McDonald, Seymour, Ragsdale, all of whom are projected to be about average NL SP by ERA.
So that’s what piqued my interest, reading the comments about this situation. The starting rotation could be Harrison, Birdsong, Winn, Beck, Black, Whisenhunt, which could be a MLB level rotation, but is sitting in AAA.
Harrison has an elite 4-seam fastball, but he might be better served serving time in AAA working on his other pitches, which he will need if he is to become the ace he appeared to be rising up the minors. Birdsong has a high velocity fastball that he can keep high deep into games, but still has some things to work on. Especially his new kick change pitch, which could make him elite. Winn and Beck showed that they could be quality average MLB SP in 2023. Black and Whisenhunt have done great in the minors, enough to be projected as average or better NL SP.
So what happens to the others? Bivens appears to be the long reliever in the majors, once Birdsong goes back to AAA to start. Small has been pitching in AAA well enough for an opportunity, so he could be traded to a team that needs a back of rotation starter. Seymour and Ragsdale should be in AAA, but there are so many there now. McDonald, similarly, could be swapped, but given his lack of experience due to injuries, he might not fetch much.
Of course, not every pitcher will meet or beat that projection. So the Giants should keep the surplus going into 2026, by which time, hopefully we will have a better handle on who are the keepers. This is a great problem to have, and hopefully it pays off in a great rotation in the back half of this decade, as well as trades to refill the prospect pipeline or fix a MLB position.
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