NBC Sports collated a number of mock drafts in an article. Both Baseball America and CBS had the Giants picking Hunter Bishop. Probably the first time BA got it right with a pick beyond the Top 5 overall. Not that it is easy to do, I'm not denigrating them for that, just noting, mostly because they usually figure out 60-80% of the Top 10 picks and a fair number into the teens, but the Giants under Sabean's lead was inscrutable even for BA.
Other mocks I saw had Bryson Stott SS as the selection (he was available, so they were definitely wrong; he fell to #14), some had Josh Jung 3B (including MLB.com's Mayo) but he was nabbed earlier, #8 by Rangers, so we'll never know, and Fangraphs had C.J. Abrams HS SS, but he was grabbed by Padres at #6, though they did say Bishop in their final mock draft.
ogc thoughts
This was the opposite of the draft where the Giants selected Bumgarner, I had been wanting a hitter (as were many others) but when Sabean and Tidrow spoke right after and said that they expect him to reach the majors in two years, while not sold, was holding that to them, and damn if they weren't right.
This draft, I was hoping for a starting pitcher, as I think we need more and better pitching, but, as I'm probably writing out at some point, Zaidi seems to have another strategy he's following. Nick Lodolo LHP was one name that caught my eye but Reds got him with #7. Alek Manoah RHP was another one that caught my eye, but Zaidi/Holmes passed on him, and he was grabbed #11 by Blue Jays. But Hunter Bishop seems like a great pick.
Bishop Evaluations
Jim Callis of MLB.com reported: Bishop is the first player taken who wasn't a consensus first-round talent coming into the year. He's a tremendous athlete with one of the better power-speed combinations available, and he did a better job of tapping into that power by adopting a more disciplined approach this spring. He also proved he could handle center field and has one of the higher ceilings on the college side in this Draft.
MLB Pipeline: Hunter Bishop was ranked 7th overall.
MLB Pipeline Profile: Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 60 | Run: 60 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50 | Overall: 55
The younger brother of Mariners outfielder Braden Bishop, Hunter was an intriguing yet inconsistent prospect coming out of the Northern California high school ranks, one who headed to Arizona State rather than sign with the Padres, the team that took him in the 24th round of the 2016 Draft. For his first two years, Bishop showed glimpses of tools, but with the same issues that plagued him as a prepster. His junior year, however, has been a revelation, and he's put himself near the top of the college bats eligible to be drafted.
Bishop's transformation came soon after he returned from his stint in the Cape Cod League, showing a new stance and rhythm at the plate during fall ball he has stuck with since. The left-handed hitter has always had tremendous raw power, but there have been questions about his ability to hit enough to tap into it. There will be some swing and miss, but he's shown bat speed, strength and loft consistently, with majestic home run power to his pull side, but also the ability to drive the ball to all fields. He runs very well for his size, regularly recording plus times down the line. That speed works in center field, with many scouts thinking he can stick there, even though this is the first time he's played there full-time.
The only negative at all with Bishop now is a lack of a track record of success. His ability to stick to his gameplan consistently this season, to go along with his natural tools, has nearly everyone believing it's for real, lining him up for an early first-round selection.Fangraphs: Bishop has star tools and joins an org whose new leadership comes from an org that was good at extracting the most out of hitters. Per their draft board, two better players were available, Brett Baty and Corbin Carroll, who were picked #12 and #16, respectively.
Fangraphs Draft Board: TLDR: Super athletic XL-framed corner outfielder who turned the corner at the plate. Rare power/speed combo.
Fangraphs Draft Board: Full Report: Bishop changed his college commitment late (he was originally going to play two sports at Washington), and headed to ASU. After struggling as a freshman and sophomore, he arrived for his junior season with a better body and quieter swing. He sent many non-conference pitches rocketing into Phoenix's midnight sky before he started seeing -- and swinging over top of -- lots of Pac-12 breaking balls. Whether this is fixable has been the subject of many debates in draft rooms in the early first round. Bishop has rare physical tools for a college hitter. He's a plus runner and will post 70 run times to first on occasion with solid feel for center field and huge, playable power, so there's a chance for stardom here even if Bishop ends up with a below-average hit tool. It's unclear why Bishop's arm strength and accuracy became issues this year after they were assets earlier in his career, but it's such a small aspect of his skillset that it shouldn't be a concern unless his medical indicates it's a chronic issue. Less stable than the college hitters ranked above him, Bishop has as much upside.
Eno Sarris (The Athletic podcast and Twitter) Notes:
- Twitter/Podcast: some evaluators had Bishop Top 3-5 overall
- Noted that Bishop worked with a Matt Lyles, internet hitting guru hired by White Sox, might explain homer/power uptick this season
- Some didn't like his swing and miss, which made him fall in their eyes
- College is viewed like minor leagues by some, maybe low-A ball (makes sense, Bart was started in San Jose, whereas Hjelle and Wong were placed in Augusta).
- Strikeout rate one of better predictors: walk rate based on pitcher and umpire (and catcher), so there's less noise with strikeouts
- Likes Bishop, might not take much time to reach majors
With the 10th overall pick, the Giants selected Hunter Bishop, a power-hitting outfielder from Serra High School and Arizona State, the same combination of schools that once got Barry Bonds ready for professional life. The Giants have missed on several local stars over the past decade, but they're betting that Bishop's raw left-handed power will turn him into a middle-of-the-order star in San Francisco.
Bishop, 20, certainly isn't shying away from the challenge. On an energetic conference call shortly after the pick, he said he grew up watching Bonds blast homers into McCovey Cove and would mimic them with wiffle balls in his backyard. Asked what kind of player he is, Bishop said he likes to think he's a mix of Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich, who just so happen to be the two best players in the National League right now.
"I think my swing is more like Cody Bellinger, but I run like Christian Yelich and play defense like Christian Yelich," Bishop said. "Obviously those guys are really talented, but I think in the future I can grow into a player like that."
Bishop shot up the draft board with a huge junior year at Arizona State, batting .344 with a .482 on-base percentage and .757 slugging percentage. He hit 22 homers in 56 games, and while scouts say he has some swing-and-miss in his swing, he did walk 50 times to counteract 59 strikeouts.
MLB Pipeline ranked Bishop as the seventh best player in the draft, and the Giants landed him despite a historic run on position players in the top 10. The MLB Pipeline scouting report noted Bishop has "tremendous raw power" and has "shown bat speed, strength and loft consistently, with majestic home run power to his pull side, but also the ability to drive the ball to all fields."
Former Oregon State coach Pat Casey, who was at MLB Network for the draft, said the thing that always stood out in conference play was that Bishop's "tools are off the charts."
The Giants drafted more than tools, though. They believe strongly in the character of a young man who has joined his brother, Mariners outfielder Braden Bishop, in raising awareness for Alzheimer's through the 4Mom foundation, which Braden started after their mom, Suzy, was diagnosed.
Braden and Hunter grew up going to Giants games with their dad, and the younger son is now on a path to Oracle Park, where he hopes to one day resume his impersonations of Bonds -- this time with a real baseball, against big league pitchers.
"I definitely know it's a big ballpark, but you see guys like Barry hit it out all the time," Bishop said. "If you've got power, you can hit it out anywhere. I'm looking forward to one day playing at that ballpark, but I know I've got a lot of work to do to get there."Draft Analysis
From my draft data, 23.4% of #10 ended up being good (a difference maker), but that's randomness at work, as the average for 7-14 is 15.6%. In other words, the odds are greatly against Hunter Bishop ever amounting to much in the majors, just based on the population of draft talent in the past. Maybe another 10%-ish turn out to be a useful major leaguer. (FYI: for the second round pick, #51, for picks 41-60, roughly 4.5% become a good major leaguer). So be excited to have essentially another nice lottery ticket, but don't feel like things have necessarily changed, we need to see what he does in pro ball this season, to have a better feel for yeah or nay.
That said, there's a lot to like about Bishop, besides his first name. On Twitter, someone looked at Bishop's swing and noted the similarity to Bellinger, so that's something he has done that is noticeable to others. Barry Bonds always advocated for a short swing. And as much as the draft leadership changed, Hunter Bishop played well in Cape Cod, which was an area the Giants under Sabean loved to mine for draftees.
I like that he's a big guy who is so athletic that he can play CF with a speed/power combo, with strong tools. My first baseball loves was Bobby Bonds, so I've always look for those speed/power guys. Even if he doesn't stick in CF, Duggar is elite defensively in CF, such that even if he never learns to hit MLB pitching, if Bishop and Ramos can continue to develop, and take LF and RF, respectively, that would be great to have a homegrown OF of Bishop, Duggar, Ramos, as the corner hitting would help make up for the lack in CF. But as noted above, that's to dream on, we need to see how Bishop does this season and next before we can truly dream on such an outfield configuration (but Ramos is hitting the crap out of the ball, and should be in AA sooner than later, maybe even jump a level, if the front office feels like challenging him some; doesn't take long to put a prospect into play).
Swing and miss is not a big deal if he's doing a lot when he's making contact, people always forget that. He was able to keep his BB/K ratio close to 1.0, so that shows good swinging skills. But, yes, if he can't avoid strikeouts, he'll have a harder time staying in the majors full-time. But I view that as a given, any hitter who can't avoid strikeouts will fail. Unlike most, he has huge power, and the body to supply it, and that can make up for a lot of other issues.
His hit tool is the one that could hurt. But that's the profile of what are called "Three True Outcome" players, who hit for power and strike out a lot, but also walk a lot, to make up for their lack of hits. So he has a lot that we fans can dream on. But he also seems to have a trait we Giants fans are all too familiar with: power hitters who have trouble with breaking balls. So this is something to watch out for going forward.
I think that he was underrated because he's probably behind developmentally than other hitters since he did not commit to baseball until college, playing both football and baseball in high school (he was a wide receiver, like Samardzija; much like Kyle Crick, who did not start pitching full time until his senior year in high school). Also because this was his first season with his new swing, he might still have some things to improve still. So, yes, his hit tool needs to be improved, but evaluators are probably viewing him from the viewpoint that he's as developed as others his age, when he's likely to be a year or two behind others because he was playing football half the time while in high school.
Hence I can see why some evaluators might then bump him from Top 10 ranking overall in this draft, to Top 3-5. And while even the #2 pick overall only become good a little under 30% of the time and #3 at 24%, that's much better than 15-20% of the time that his draft range has experienced. Every little edge you can get, you take.
So, overall, I like the pick. You are never getting a sure thing in the baseball draft, except maybe once in a generation or two (though Strasburg and Harper were, and they were in consecutive drafts; how fortunate the Nats were to be the big losers those seasons, getting to pick them). Each draft prospect has to develop something to become major leaguers, and even more to become a good player, but Hunter has speed and power, those are two great ingredients for a good major league player.
There's a lot to dream on with Hunter Bishop, as well as to root for, given he grew up a Giants fan. I love that he grew up a Giants fan. Always will be rooting for those guys, like Brandon Crawfrod, Andrew Susac, and now, hopefully, Hunter Bishop. There is a lot to like about Hunter.
Hopefully this pick will work after the dozens of picks in recent years that, to say the least, have not panned out. There's a dearth of young talent in this organization that will take years to fix.
ReplyDeleteI guess you are new to my site, given your comment.
DeleteThe reason I say this is because one of my main foci in the 15 or so years I've been blogging on the Giants here has been about the fact that when a team is playoff competitive, as the Giants were from 2009-2016, the odds of finding a good player via the draft drops exponentially, making it extremely hard to find a good player while winning (not impossible, but very hard).
Based on the odds of finding a good player in the 21-30 overall draft pick range (and really, into the teens too, just not as bad, but still very bad), you are talking that, in a random process, based on the success rate for draft picks in 21-30 in the history of the draft, on average you find one good player over a 14 year draft period, if you can be in the playoffs over those 14 years. And that's for your first round pick, by the second round, the odds have dropped to finding one good player every 20-25 years, roughly. And so on. If you add the odds all up, you are probably in the 14% range, meaning that if you draft and sign all 40 picks (usually only sign somewhere in the 25-30 range), it should still take you about 7-8 years of drafting just to find that one good player.
Then, there's the development involved with that good player. Then if he's HS, that might add a couple years on top of that, depending. That's another 4-6 years, probably, on average. So it could be 10-15 years before you find ONE good player, via the draft,since the odds are so bad.
And you say recent years, but we have a number of good prospects from recent drafts, Bart and Ramos in particular, but also Webb, Miller, Menez, and there are others I'm probably overlooking, as I've not been as engaged with our minor leagues this season, as I've been dealing with my own personal issues.
So it drives me crazy to see a comment like you just posted. There's a very good and well-known, at least to my readers, reason why there's a dearth of young talent: we were winning from 2009 to 2016 regularly, and that means bad drafts.
It does not help that Evans traded away players like Reynolds and Crick who have done well after being traded, either.