Friday, April 06, 2018

Your 2018 Giants: Offense Greatly Improved

After the Giants early offensive struggles (albeit, against one of the top rotations in the majors in one of the more extreme pitcher's parks in the majors), many were shouting, "The Giants Offense sucks!  The offense sucks!"  I disagree.

ogc thoughts

And this post won't really assuage them, as they probably don't care to know that adding two good hitters (Longoria and McCutchen), and having another two return (Belt and Crawford), makes for a really good lineup.

I like using the Lineup Calculator.  Some saber long ago did a linear regression of lineups by lineup position, with OBP and SLG (during the so-called steroids era), and I've been using it for over the past ten years, and when I test it against the majors overall numbers, it still comes out pretty close.  Apparently each lineup position contributes a certain percentage of runs depending on the OBP and SLG that hitter attains.   So I believe in the numbers the calculator generates.

Giants Lineup:  Calculated Using ZiPS

For this lineup, which I had done before Spring Training, soon after ZiPS' projection was released, the Giants averaged 4.73 runs scored with a lineup of (that's the way I would bat them if I had to stick with one lineup):
  1. Panik
  2. Belt
  3. Posey
  4. McCutchen
  5. Longoria
  6. Pence
  7. Crawford
  8. Duggar

In 2017, the average NL team averaged 4.58 runs scored per game.  4.73 runs scored would have ranked the Giants 7th in 2017, basically in the middle, but slightly above average.  This used overall projections for 2018.  Using Fangraph's Depth Chart projections by playing position, and inserting unoptimized into the above lineup, the team still averages 4.53 runs per game (for example, Tomlinson playing 2B, and batting leadoff as above or Blanco playing RF and batting clean-up, very unoptimized), which is basically the NL average.

Giants Lineup:  Calculated Using 3 Year vs. LHP

Now I'm going to look at the lineup using each players' 3 year (2015-2017)  batting line  against LHP:
  1. Jackson:        .360/.453/.813
  2. Panik:           .335/.342/.677
  3. McCutchen:  .394/.545/.939
  4. Posey:           .407/.517/.926
  5. Longoria:      .333/.462/.795
  6. Pence:           .326/.441/.767
  7. Belt:              .355/.454/.809
  8. Crawford:     .308/.391/.699
Two things pop out from this.  First, Panik should not be batting second based on his historic 3- year numbers.  Second, Belt should not be batting 7th based on his 3-year batting line.  If anything, they should be swapped, and then look at the OBP for the first four hitters!

Still, even with the obviously bad mis-alignment, this lineup averages 4.93 runs scored per game, which would rank 5th in the NL last season.  If the Giants had the same runs allowed as last season's disaster, 4.79 runs allowed, with this offense, it would win at a 83 win rate.  But it only needs to reach 4.55 runs allowed to reach 87 win rate (Colorado's win total for second Wild Card spot) and 4.20 runs allowed to reach 93 win rate (D-backs win total for first Wild Card spot).  In 2016, the Giants allowed 3.90 runs on average, and that would result in a 98 win rate.  The average runs allowed rate for 2016-2017 was 4.34, and that would result in a 90 win rate.

Giants Lineup:  Calculated Using 3 Year vs. RHP
  1. Panik:             .348/.445/.793
  2. Belt:               .377/.483/.860
  3. McCutchen:   .360/.447/.807
  4. Posey:            .369/.432/.801
  5. Longoria:       .315/.461/.776
  6. Crawford:      .330/.449/.779
  7. Pence:            .336/.421/.757
  8. Blanco:          .349/.374/.723
Here Belt is where he belongs, batting second in the lineup, no matter who is pitching, and if anything, he should be batting 4th (but showing how little changing the lineup means to overall run production, switching Belt and Posey would only add one run per season, and thus average the same per game;  however, swapping Panik and Belt vs. LHP would reap an addition four runs, raising to 4.96 run scored per game average).  This seems actually pretty ideal, as research has found that placing your best hitter batting 2nd is good for the offense, which is good because roughly 75% of all AB's are against RHP, overall.

Though not as potent, this lineup still averages 4.75 runs scored per game, which would rank tied for 6th in the NL last season, with the Dodgers.   The implication of this is that since that's LA's overall batting line, and both lineups above are at or above LA's and thus is comparable in strength with the Dodger's offense (assuming some downward effect of using the bench, as what happened above with the ZiPS projections of starters vs. positional totals. 

If the Giants had the same runs allowed as last season's disaster, 4.79 runs allowed, with this offense, it would win at a 80 win rate (only time with this lineup analysis where the Giants end up under .500).  Presumably, the Giants have better pitching and fielding than they did in 2017.  But the team only needs to reach 4.40 runs allowed to reach 87 win rate (Colorado's win total for second Wild Card spot) and 4.05 runs allowed to reach 93 win rate (D-backs win total for first Wild Card spot).  In 2016, the Giants allowed 3.90 runs on average, and that would result in a 95 win rate.  The average runs allowed rate for 2016-2017 was 4.34, and that would result in a 88 win rate.

Offense Good Enough to Win Wild Card Spot

From the above, the Giants look like they are going to easily be an over .500 team, assuming health and production.  And look like they will probably earn a wild card spot, and perhaps even the NL West Division Title.

Obviously, the Giant starting pitching should be better than 2017, as there is no obviously bad starter like Cain or Matt Moore were, both Stratton and Blach look like they can keep things under 5.00 easily (Blach, for example, had 4.78 ERA in 24 starts and 10 relief appearances, 163.2 IP), plus Samardzija was hurt by BABIP in 2017, his peripherals were much better than his ERA would suggest.   But obviously 2018 should not be as good as 2016, as both Bumgarner and Cueto were aces to the core, though one should also noted that Moore and Cain in 2017 did a pretty good imitation of Peavy and Cain in 2018.  Plus the bullpen looks better than 2017 as well.  Overall, one should be able to easily say that the 2018 Giants should be somewhere in-between, and perhaps closer to 2016 than 2017.

If you say that the 2018 is exactly in-between, that would be 4.34 runs allowed, and works out to roughly 89-90 wins, which should be enough to win the second Wild Card spot.  If the Giants average 4.12 runs allowed, that gets them to 94 wins, and the first Wild Card, and potentially the NL West Division title, as the Dodger's starters averaged 0.52 runs lower ERA relative to their FIP.   Adding that many runs to the 2017 Dodgers would push their Pythagorean Wins to 92 wins.

How 2018 Giants Compares with 2016 Giants

How might the 2018 Giants be closer to the 2016 Giants, especially considering Bumgarner is out to June, sometime?  First off, as mentioned above, neither Peavy and Cain were that good in 2016, both in the mid-5 ERA range.  Second, Cueto looks like he's back to 2016 form.  Third, Blach did pretty well last year, much better than either Peavy/Cain in 2016, lessening the need for the other starters to match 2016 performances.  Fourth, Stratton has demonstrated a great curveball and, even better, good results, was killer for 9 starts at the end of 2017, and his first start of 2018 would have been a 4 PQS DOM start (old definition; 3 newPQS DEC or decent start, but even that is actually pretty good). 

Holland is the unknown factor here.  It depends on how long the Giants allows him to stink up the rotation before he is moved into the long relief role.  As I noted in recent analysis, Holland has actually had a very good ERA for good parts of the start of the past few seasons, but his arm strength would eventually give way and he's horrible.  Kind of like Blach last season, he was decent for 19 starts (122.1 IP in those starts, 128 total IP including relief) in 2017, after being placed in the rotation, with a 4.12 ERA/3.79 FIP, and then his arm gave out and he had 5 bad starts, 7.90 ERA. 

Holland's ERA was okay to the middle of 2017, and probably will give way again sometime around the All-Star Break.  I'm hoping that either he gets made the long reliever when Bumgarner comes back, or the Giants recognize the fatigue and put Blach back in, or better maybe have Holland and Blach take turns in the rotation, pitching every 10-11 days, and being the long reliever for the other in-between.   But even if he's bad, as long as he's in the same ballpark as Peavy/Cain in 2016, we are okay as long as the other starters are doing as well as expected. 

In addition, the bullpen had a 3.65 ERA in 2016, only 4.34 ERA in 2017, and as I noted in my bullpen post, the bullpen is looking like it can be in the low 3 ERA range, and thus matching the 3.65 ERA of 2016 looks easy as long as they are healthy enough (plus, Moronta, Johnson, and Osich look like they might be okay, Okert too).  The main thing is the bulk of the reliever innings will go to Strickland, Watson, Dyson, Gearrin, and probably Smith, so the bullpen ERA should be pretty good (their 3.65 ERA in 2016 would have ranked second in 2017, and these guys overall should beat that, while others will bring back towards 2016 average).

Finally, the goal here is to be closer to 2016 than 2017, not to beat 2016.  The above suggest that the 2018 Giants are closer to 2016 than 2017, and in some ways, could be better than 2016.  Even exactly in between would bring the team to the upper 80's in wins.  I think the Giants are in good shape for the playoffs because of their offense helping to bring the pitching over the hump, and then hopefully all the key pitchers are healthy and performing at year's end, and we should have a good chance in the playoffs.

Belt (and Giants) Kershawed:  How Giants Can Beat Kershaw

A final addendum to the above about Belt.  As noted, Belt's actually a pretty good hitter vs. LHP, but I learned something new over Twitter in the past week:  we all know that he sucks against Kershaw but never really understood what that means overall.  Taking Belt's 3-year vs. LHP batting stats, and taking out his putrid results against Kershaw (oh-fer-24, with a HBP; yeah, it's that bad), I ended up with Belt hitting vs. LHP not named Kershaw of .273/.372/.481/.853.  His OPS vs. RHP is .860!!!

So if Bochy had just sat Belt for every Kershaw start (and, say, bat Hundley, lifetime .260/.315/.300/.615, which is not good, but way better than the zero Belt has, and play him at 1B, so we got Posey's defense behind the plate, as we need every edge we can get), Belt has been hitting as well vs. LHP as he did against RHP the past three years, and .850+ OPS is very  good.

And this could be significant in Kershaw starts, with Belt being such an automatic out, maybe that is why the Giants have lost all those games to him during his career.   Dropping Belt's bat out of the lineup, and replacing it with zero, ends up costing the Giants around 1 run scored per Kershaw start.

If you take his 22-10 record (.688 winning percentage) and his 1.87 runs allowed average per 9 inning games, you get the Dodgers scoring 2.90 runs per game on average in his starts against the Giants using Pythagorean.   Apparently our best pitcher was up against Kershaw a lot (and that would be Bumgarner). 

Adding in Hundley's career numbers against Kershaw into the lineup in the 7th spot adds 0.83 runs over what Belt was providing (and assuming Belt was in every Kershaw start vs. the Giants; he was roughly in only 7 of the last 15 over the past 3 years, though), that would have changed Kershaw's record from 22-10 (.688) to 17-15 (.532).   Adjusting for half time usage would drop it only to 19-13 or so, though.

And the Giants apparently noticed that, as well, because Belt did not start one of the Kershaw's starts in 2017, missing all five (of course, he was injured in the latter two months, and probably miss 2-3 there, but still).  And that didn't help the Giants all that much, as he went 4-1 against them in 2017 (though I would note here that the Giants offense was crippled by a lot of poor performances besides Belt, in 2017).

Still, I think the concept holds, for the most part.  Just give Belt a rest on the day that Kershaw starts, and his numbers are great, whether LHP or RHP.

Though, oddly, he was not shut out in 2011-12, just not very good, still worse than Hundley.  And actually got a hit this year, and has his best OPS, .667, against him in any season (albeit, 1 for 3);  if he can do at least that much each time, it is better to have him in there than Hundley, it is just the zeros that really hurt the Giants offense.   But for the most part, Kershaw has had a ton of ownage on Belt over his career, and it is better for the Giants to give Belt a rest on Kershaw starts.

Final note:  I wouldn't sign anyone just for ownage on one player, but McCutchen has a lifetime .333/.375/.533/.908 batting line against Kershaw in 32 PA.  Just noting.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Labels

1984 Draft (1) 2007 Draft (15) 2007 Giants (52) 2008 Draft (22) 2008 Giants (53) 2008 season (6) 2009 Draft (18) 2009 Giants (87) 2009 season (24) 2010 Decade (12) 2010 Draft (11) 2010 Giants (137) 2010 NL ROY award (1) 2010 season (19) 2010's (3) 2011 Draft (9) 2011 Giants (84) 2011 season (8) 2012 Draft (11) 2012 Giants (93) 2012 season (11) 2013 Draft (3) 2013 Giants (39) 2013 season (5) 2014 (1) 2014 draft (5) 2014 Giants (79) 2014 season (16) 2015 Draft (4) 2015 Giants (50) 2015 season (10) 2016 Draft (1) 2016 Giants (45) 2016 season (6) 2017 Draft (3) 2017 Giants (27) 2018 Draft (8) 2018 Giants (45) 2018 Season (7) 25 man roster (10) 25th man fallacy (1) 3B (1) 40 Man Roster (10) 49ers (1) 6-man rotation (3) 89 Quake (1) 89 World Series (1) A-Ball (1) A-Gon (1) A-Rod (3) A's (6) AA-Ball (1) Aaron Rowand (25) accomplishments (1) ace pitcher (1) Adalberto Mejia (6) Adam Duvall (5) AFL (4) aggression (1) Albert Suarez (5) Alen Hanson (2) Alex Hinshaw (3) Alex Pavlovic (1) Alexander Canario (1) All-Star Game (1) almost perfect game (1) Alonzo Powell (1) Amphetamine (2) analysis (20) Andre Torres (14) Andres Torres (2) Andrew McCutchen (2) Andrew Suarez (5) Andrew Susac (11) Andy Baggerly (2) Andy Sisco (1) Andy Suarez (4) Angel Joseph (1) Angel Pagan (17) Angel Villalona (30) Anniversary (1) appendicitis (1) Aramis Garcia (2) Arbitration (19) Armando Benitez (5) Armando Gallaraga (1) art of failure (1) Asia-Pacific signing (1) assessment (1) Astros (2) At the Rate They Are Going (1) ATT Park (1) Aubrey Huff (20) Austin Jackson (2) Austin Slater (4) Award (4) BABIP (3) Bam Bam Meulens (1) Barry Bonds (30) Barry Zito (77) baseball (1) Baseball America (3) Baseball Prospectus (3) Baseball Prospectus Bias Against Giants (3) baseball strategy (6) Baseball Study (17) baserunning (2) batting peripherals (1) batting stance analysis (1) batting title champion (1) Beat LA (9) bench players (4) Bengie Molina (14) Benjamin Snyder (1) Bert Blyleven (1) best manager (2) best practices (2) Beyond the Box Score (1) Bias Against Giants (1) Big 6 (9) Bill Hall (1) Bill James (1) Bill James Handbook (2) Bill Mueller (1) Bill Neukom (21) Billy Beane (3) Blog Philosophy (2) Bob Howry (2) Bob Mariano (1) Bobby Evans (3) Boston Red Sox (1) Brad Hennessey (5) Brad Penny (2) Brandon Bednar (1) Brandon Belt (50) Brandon Crawford (25) Brandon Hicks (1) Braves (5) breakout (2) Brett Bochy (4) Brett Pill (9) Brian Anderson (1) Brian Bocock (2) Brian Cooper (1) Brian Horwitz (3) Brian Ragira (2) Brian Sabean (46) Brian Wilson (14) Bridegrooms (6) Bruce Bochy (35) Bucky Showalter (1) bulllpen (5) Bullpen (33) Business Plan (14) Buster Posey (102) Byran Reynolds (2) Byung-Hyun Kim (1) Cained (4) call-ups (3) Candlestick Park (1) Cards (13) Career Prospects (4) Carl Hubbell (1) Carlos Beltran (4) Carlos Gomez (1) Carney Lansford (2) Carter Jurica (1) Casey McGeHee (3) catcher injury (5) catching (3) CBT penalty (1) CC Sabathia (1) censorship (2) CEO (2) Chad Gaudin (5) Charles Culberson (5) Charlie Culberson (3) Chase Johnson (3) Chillax (1) Chris Brown (1) Chris Gloor (1) Chris Heston (19) Chris Lincecum (1) Chris Marrero (1) Chris O'Leary (1) Chris Ray (4) Chris Shaw (4) Chris Stewart (4) Chris Stratton (25) Chris Strattton (1) Christian Arroyo (7) Christmas (1) Christopher Dominguez (4) Christy Mathewson (1) Chuckie Jones (2) Clay Hensley (3) Clayton Blackburn (10) Clayton Tanner (3) Closer (9) closer by committee (3) Coaches (4) coaching changes (1) Cody Hall (2) Cody Ross (8) Col (1) Comeback Award (1) Commissioner (1) comparison (1) competitive advantage (1) Competitive Balance Tax (2) competitiveness (2) Connor Nurse (1) Conor Gillaspie (25) contender (1) contract extension (3) contract negotiations (2) contract signing (7) core competency (1) Core Rotation (1) Cory Gearrin (5) Cory Guerrin (1) Cory Hart (1) Craig Whitaker (2) Curt Young (1) cuts (1) Cy Young Award (5) cyber-relief (1) D-backs (15) D-gers (36) D-Rocks (3) D-Rox (17) D.J. Snelten (3) Dallas McPherson (1) Dan Ortmeier (11) Dan Otero (2) Dan Runzler (6) Dan Slania (3) Dan Uggla (1) Daniel Carbonell (1) Daniel Slania (2) Darren Ford (1) Dave Righetti (1) Dave Roberts (11) David Aardsma (1) David Bell (1) David Huff (2) David Loewenstein (1) Decade of the Giants (11) decline (1) Defense (8) Deferred Money (1) deleted comment (1) Denard Span (3) depth (1) Dereck Rodriquez (2) Derek Holland (12) Derek Law (10) Detroit Tigers (1) DFA (3) DH (2) Dick Tidrow (2) dictionary (1) Dirty (1) DL (3) dodgers (14) Donald Snelten (1) Draft (10) Draft Analysis (18) Draft Bonus (7) draft list (3) draft philosophy (1) draft signing (3) Draft Strategy (11) Draft Study (3) Draft Success (3) drafting (3) Dres (16) DRS (1) Dynasty (2) Edgar Renteria (13) Eduardo Nunez (4) Edwin Escobar (5) Ehire Adrianza (26) Eli Whiteside (4) Elimination game (1) EME (2) Emmanuel Burriss (18) epic season (6) era (1) Eric Byrnes (1) Eric Surkamp (6) Erik Cordier (1) Eugenio Velez (12) evaluation (2) Evan Longoria (3) extension (7) fan outrage (1) fan rants (1) fanfest (1) FanGraphs (2) felony conviction (1) Fielding (4) Fielding Stats (4) finger injury (3) first post-season press conference (3) Francisco Peguero (4) Fred Lewis (3) Freddie Lewis (17) Freddie Sanchez (4) Freddy Sanchez (7) Free Agency (7) Free agent possibilities (24) Free agent signing (17) Free agent signings (21) front office (2) Game Score (3) gamer-tude (1) Garrett Williams (1) Gary Brown (26) Geno Espinelli (1) George Kontos (10) Ghosts of Giants Drafts (2) Giants (9) Giants Announcer (1) Giants blogs (3) Giants Chat (4) Giants Defense (2) Giants Draft (15) Giants Drafts (2) Giants Farm System (32) Giants Franchise record (2) Giants Future (64) Giants GM (5) Giants Greats (3) Giants hitting manual (1) Giants No-Hitter (5) Giants Offense (30) Giants Offseason (21) Giants Pitching (3) Giants Strategy (36) GiDar (1) Gino Espinelli (1) glossary (1) Gold Glove Award (1) good will (1) Gorkys Hernandez (2) Graphical Player (1) Gregor Blanco (18) Gregor Moscoso (1) Guillermo Moscoso (2) Guillermo Mota (2) Guillermo Quiroz (1) Gustavo Cabrera (4) Hall of Fame (9) Hall of Shame (4) Hank Aaron (5) Happy Holidays (2) Hate mail (1) healthy (1) heart-warming (1) Heath Hembree (8) Heath Quinn (1) Hector Correa (1) Hector Sanchez (12) Heliot Ramos (5) Henry Sosa (8) HGH (1) Hidden Game (1) high expectations (1) high school focus in draft (1) high velocity hitters (1) high velocity pitchers (1) Hitter's League (1) Hitting (18) Hitting Coach (1) hitting mechanics (3) hitting pitchers (2) hitting streak (1) Hitting; (1) Home Run Career Record (7) Home Run Hitting Contest (1) Hunter Pence (25) Hunter Stickland (1) Hunter Strickland (9) Ian Gardeck (1) Idea (4) IFA (1) improvement (2) Indictment (1) Infield (1) injury (7) instant replay (2) instructor (1) Interesting Question (1) International Free Agent Pursuits (5) International Signings (5) interview (4) Investment (1) Ivan Ochoa (2) J2 (1) Jack Taschner (4) Jackson Williams (3) Jacob Dunnington (1) Jacob Gonzalez (2) Jacob McCasland (1) Jae-gyun Hwang (1) Jake Dunning (2) Jake Peavy (39) Jake Smith (1) Jalen Miller (1) Japanese Starters (1) Jarrett Parker (10) Jason Heyward (1) Jason Maxwell (2) Jason Stoffel (1) Javier Lopez (5) JC Gutierrez (3) Jean Machi (6) Jeff Kent (1) Jeff Samardzija (23) Jeff Suppan (1) Jeremy Affeldt (12) Jeremy Shelley (2) Jerome Williams (1) Jesse English (2) Jesse Foppert (1) Jesus Guzman (4) Jimmy Rollins (1) Joaquin Arias (14) Joe Panik (18) Joe Torre (1) Joey Bart (2) Joey Martinez (2) Johan Santana (1) John Barr (1) John Bowker (22) John Thorn (1) Johneshwy Fargas (2) Johnny Bench (1) Johnny Cueto (28) Johnny Monell (1) Johnny Rucker (1) Jonah Arenado (1) Jonathan Mayo (1) Jonathan Sanchez (49) Jordan Johnson (1) Jose Canseco (1) Jose Casilla (1) Jose Guillen (3) Jose Mijares (3) Jose Uribe (2) Josh Osich (9) JT Snow (1) Juan Perez (6) Juan Uribe (9) Juggling Monkey (1) Julian Fernandez (7) Julio Urias (1) jury (1) Just Say No (1) Kelby Tomlinson (5) Kendry Flores (2) Keury Mella (2) Kevin Correia (2) Kevin Frandsen (22) Kevin Pucetas (10) KNBR (1) Kung Fu Panda (30) Kyle Crick (16) Larry Baer (2) Larry Ellison (1) Lead-off (2) leadoff (1) left-handed (1) Lew Wolff (1) LHP (1) Lineup (17) lineup construction (4) Lineup position (1) links (1) Lon Simmons (1) long relief (2) Long-Term Contract (22) long-term planning (3) losing streak (1) Lucius Fox (3) luck (2) Luis Angel Mateo (2) lunatic fringe (1) Mac Marshall (1) Mac Williamson (11) Madison Bumgarner (177) Mailbox (1) Malcolm Gladwell (1) management change (3) management issues (5) managerial value (5) Manny (1) Marc Kroon (2) Marco Scutaro (12) Mark DeRosa (8) Mark Gardner (1) Mark Melancon (4) Marlon Byrd (1) Martin Agosta (7) Marvin Miller (1) Masahiro Tanaka (1) Mason McVay (1) Matsuzaka (1) Matt Cain (160) Matt Downs (2) Matt Duffy (8) Matt Graham (1) Matt Holliday (1) Matt Krook (2) Matt Moore (15) Matt Morris (2) Mechanics (4) Media (16) Media Bias (17) Media Trade Idea (3) Medical (1) Mediocy (10) Mediots (5) Melk-Gone (1) Melky Cabrera (14) Melvin Adon (1) memories (1) mental (1) Merkin Valdez (8) Message in a Bottle (1) methodology (2) MI (1) Michael Main (1) Michael Trout (1) middle infield (1) Miguel Cabrera (2) Miguel Gomez (1) Miguel Tejada (5) Mike Fontenot (3) Mike Ivie (1) Mike Kickham (9) Mike Leake (11) Mike Matheny (1) Mike Morse (10) milestone (1) minor league (1) minor league contract (4) minors (11) mismanagement (1) misnomer (1) mistakes (2) MLB (2) MLB stupidity (2) MLB Success (7) MLB Trade Rumors (1) MLBAM (1) MLBTR (1) MLE (1) Mock Draft analysis (8) MVP (2) Natanael Javier (1) Nate Schierholtz (45) Nathanael Javier (1) Nationals (1) Naysayers (1) Negotiations (1) Neil Ramirez (1) NewPQS (5) Next Gen (1) Nick Hundley (2) Nick Noonan (27) Nick Pereira (1) Nick Vander Tuig (2) NL Champions (2) NL West (27) NL West Division Title (19) NL West Future (1) NLCS (22) NLCS MVP (2) NLDS (8) Noah Lowry (14) non-roster invitees (2) non-tenders (2) Nori Aoki (4) NPB (1) NRI (1) Oakland A's (4) OBP (1) oddities (1) Offense (3) offensive era (1) ogcPQS (4) Omar Vizquel (3) one-run games (3) Opening Day (5) opening day pitcher (3) opening day roster (10) Optimism (1) Osiris Matos (2) Outfield (3) overturned (1) Ownership (7) Pablo Sandoval (97) Padres (1) Panda (6) Pandoval (1) passing (1) Pat Burrell (15) Pat Misch (5) Payroll (11) PECOTA (1) Pedro Feliz (12) PEDS (10) Perfect Game (2) perjury trial (1) Personal Reminiscence (2) Pessimism (1) Pete Palmer (1) Pete Rose (3) Peter Magowan (2) Phil Bickford (3) Phillies (7) philosophy (1) Phoenix Theory of Rebuilding (1) Pierce Johnson (2) Pitch Count (3) pitch framing (1) pitch value (1) Pitcher hitting 8th (1) Pitchers League (1) Pitching (21) pitching analysis (2) Pitching Rotation (83) pitching staff (5) plate discipline (1) platoon players (1) Play Ball (1) player budget (2) player development (2) playoff (2) playoff analysis (1) playoff hopes (37) playoff roster (2) playoff rotation (5) Playoff Success (21) Playoffs (41) postmortem (2) PQS (102) press conference (2) pressure (2) priorities (1) Projected Record (6) projection (2) projections (2) promotion (2) prospect (3) prospect analysis (4) prospect handling (1) Prospect of Note (3) prospect study (1) Prospects (44) quality starts (1) questions (1) radio great (1) Rafael Rodriquez (8) Rajai Davis (2) Ralph Barbieri (1) Ramon Ramirez (3) Randy Johnson (10) Randy Messenger (2) Randy Winn (14) Rangers (5) Ranking (4) rant (1) raspberry (1) Ray Durham (5) re-sign (2) Rebuilding (4) Rebuilding Myths series (1) rebuttal (1) Reds (5) rehab (1) reliever (2) Relocation Concession (2) Research (2) resource scarcity (1) rest for starters (1) Retired (3) Retirement (2) return (1) Reyes Moronta (3) RHP (1) Ricardo Genoves (1) Rich Aurilia (7) Rick Peterson (1) Rickie Weeks (1) Ricky Oropesa (3) right-handed (1) risk mitigation (2) risk profile (1) Roberto Gomez (1) Rockies (1) Rod Beck (1) Roger Kieschnick (13) Roger Metzger (1) Ron Shandler (2) Ron Wotus (1) Ronnie Jebavy (1) Rookie of the Year (1) Roster (4) rosterbation (2) ROY (2) Royals (3) Rule 5 (2) Rule 5 Draft Pick (4) rumors (9) run production (1) runs support (1) Russ Ortiz (11) Russell Carleton (1) Ryan Garko (2) Ryan Klesko (4) Ryan Rohlinger (2) Ryan Theriot (3) Ryan Vogelsong (93) Ryder Jones (2) Sabean Naysayers (7) Sabermetric Thoughts (6) sabermetrics (5) SABR (1) Salary speculation (3) SALLY (1) Sam Dyson (7) Sam Wolff (1) San Jose Giants (1) San Jose Relocation (3) Sandro Fabian (2) Sandy Rosario (1) Santiago Casilla (9) Scott Boras (1) Scott McClain (2) Scott Shuman (1) Scouting (1) Sean Hjelle (2) secret sauce (1) Sergio Romo (17) Seth Corry (2) SF Giants (2) Shilo McCall (1) Shohei Ohtani (1) Shohei Otani (2) Shooter (1) shutouts (1) Signature Song (1) signing (13) Silly-Ball (3) South Atlantic League (1) South Bay Rights (1) SP usage (1) spin rate (1) splits (2) Sports Illustrated (1) Spring Training (16) stabilized stats (1) standings (1) starting CF (1) starting lineup (19) starting pitching (88) Statcorner (1) State of the Giants (1) statistics (2) STATS (1) Steamer (1) Steroids (6) Steve Edlefsen (4) Steve Johnson (3) Steve Okert (8) Steven Duggar (7) strikeout rate (2) Sue Burns (1) sunk costs (1) superstition (1) Tax (1) team culture (1) Team of the 2010's (1) Team of the Decade (3) Team Speed (1) Team Support (1) Thank You (1) The Evil Ones (tm) (1) The Giants Way (1) The Hardball Times (1) The Hey Series (15) Thomas Joseph (3) Thomas Neal (9) Tigers (4) Tim Alderson (17) Tim Hudson (39) Tim Lincecum (195) Todd Linden (3) Todd Wellemeyer (6) Tommy Joseph (3) Tony Watson (4) Top Draft Position (3) top player list (1) top prospect list (5) Trade (11) Trade Analysis (20) Trade Idea (9) Trade PTBNL (2) Trade Rumors (30) trading (1) training staff (2) Training Tool (1) Travis Blackley (1) Travis Ishikawa (47) Trevor Brown (5) tribute (1) turning point (1) Ty Blach (21) Tyler Beede (8) Tyler Cyr (1) Tyler Horan (1) Tyler Rogers (1) Tyler Walker (2) umpire mistake (3) Umpires (3) USA Today (1) utility (1) Voros McCracken (1) Waldis Joaquin (5) walks (1) Wall of Fame (1) WAR (2) Warrior Spirit (1) Wendell Fairley (10) What-If Scenario (3) wild card (1) wild card race (1) Will Clark (1) Will Smith (7) Willie Mac Award (1) Willie Mays (1) winning on the road (1) Winter League (1) winter meetings (2) World Series (26) World Series Champions (12) WS Ring Bling (1) xBABIP (1) xwOBA (1) Yusmeiro Petit (40) Zack Wheeler (9) ZiPS (1) Zito Role (1)