- Belt: Asking for $7.5M, with the Giants offering $5.3M. He made $3.6M last season.
- Kontos: Asking for $1.35M, with the Giants offering $850K. He made $517,500 last season.
CSNBA's Pavlovic recently reported that Kontos has come to an agreement with the Giants for $1.15M.
The Giants historically has avoided arbitration with all their players (except one who shall not be named) by offering something around the mid-point between their offer and the player's ask. The mid-point for Belt is $6.4M, for Kontos is $1.1M. MLBTR had forecasted early on that Belt would get $6.2M, Kontos $1.0M.
On a ratio basis, Belt is asking for 42% more than what the Giants offered, while Kontos asked for 59% more than what the Giants offered.
And Kontos signed for slightly above the mid-point, $50K above the $1.1M midpoint. MLBTR had estimated a $1.0M signing, so he got above that as well. Not a big deal, but we are over the threshold already, so that $50K added $15K in penalties over what I had already projected for the whole roster. Total penalty is $1.078M per my calculations, a rough ballpark estimate of where the Giants should be given Baer's public remarks regarding the tax, plus the report on how much the Giants paid last season ($1.3M) allowed me to estimate how much benefits and others outside of the payroll that the MLB includes for the purposes of the tax threshold, their so-called Actual Club Payroll.
Thoughts on Belt
Under the old 40%/60%/80% of market valuation rule for arbitration signings, Belt was valued at $9M last season, and if that continues, he would get $5.4M this season. Clearly, he's getting above that, most likely. His asked salary works out to a $12.5M market valuation and the mid-point works out to $10.7M.
Even with his injuries and time missed, and poor 2014, he had 9.6 fWAR/9.0 bWAR in the past 3 years, 3.0-3.2 WAR per season, which works out to roughly $25M value produced each year. I'm hoping that the Giants can get him signed to a long term deal like they did Crawford, but I don't expect it to happen because I think his agent is waiting for him to have his breakout season and get a bigger contract done.
I think that he will have that breakout season if he can stay healthy. But it's not like he's been injuring himself, it's been more about bad circumstances, like Scutaro's ball hitting him in the head, or getting kneed in the head last season, or the broken fingers he has suffered twice due to bad pitches. Yet, it happens often enough that you have to wonder if he's injury prone.