If he doesn’t qualify for Super 2 status, he’ll make $750,000 in 2013, $3.75 million in 2014, $6.75 million in 2015, $9.75 million in 2016 and $11.5 million in 2017.Shea also noted that according to SFX, which represents Bumgarner, this is the biggest guarantee for a pitcher with just one-plus years of service time.
If he does qualify as a Super 2 (by being among the top 22 percent in service time among players with two-plus years), the numbers would be $3 million in 2013, $5.5 million in 2014, $7 million in 2015, $10 million in 2016 and $12 million in 2017.
He gets a $1 million signing bonus with a $1.5 million optional buyout.
Bumgarner is signed through his first year of free agency, and the deal includes two option years: a club/vesting option for 2018 and a club option for 2019.
Baggarly noted in addition:
The contract also includes two club options for $12 million in 2018 and ’19, and both have escalators based on the Cy Young Award. If Bumgarner wins the Cy Young at any point during the contract, both option years would be worth $16 million. If he has a second- or third-place finish in the Cy Young balloting at any point, the options would be worth $14 million.
Two more things about the option years:
The Giants have a buyout of $1.5 million that can apply to either option year. And the first option can become guaranteed (not a player option) if Bumgarner throws 200 innings in 2017 or 400 innings between 2016-17.
Doing the math: If Bumgarner is a super-two, he maxes out both options and the Giants exercise them, the total value of the contract could be worth as much as $70.5 million.
Oh, and Bumgarner has a limited no-trade clause in which he can name eight teams annually to which he cannot be dealt. The no-trade takes effect this season.
And two more things about the contract in general:
Bumgarner’s $560,000 contract for this season, which was signed in March, remains unchanged. Except he gets a $1 million signing bonus in the extension, half of which is payable this year and half next year.
Wow, I had written a post talking about the odds of signing our starters to a long term deal (never published), and I thought Bumgarner had low odds of signing a long term deal, mainly for two reasons. One was that his family is very linked with where they live, they call it "Bumtown" because of their presence there, he bought a farm there with his wife, so I thought that he would want to move on to Atlanta as a free agent as soon as he is able. Not only are his arbitration years covered by this deal, but also his first free agent year and potentially his second and third years as well.
Second, he and the Giants had that disagreement over how much money he was to get in 2011, and the Giants went ahead and renewed his contract at their offer, as was their right, but Madison could not have been happy about that. I thought that would cost the Giants in any future negotiations.
Then again, this is $35M for 5 years ($7M per season), $40M if he is Super-Two ($8M per season), covering 5 seasons should his arm or body gives out at any point, so it is a bit of coin as well. Remember, one of the worries about Bumgarner when he was drafted was that his arm motion was cross-body and apparently there are potential future injury concerns regarding that. That is why he had horrible starts to his first pro season, the Giants tried to change his mechanics, or so the hearsay I read at some point, and he just couldn't get it to work, but once he went back to his original delivery, his arm was golden. I have to guess the Giants medical staff gave his arm a good bill of health in spite of the stress on his arm up to now.
Still, the contract "only" covers to age 27 plus possibly 28 and 29 if the options are picked up or vested, so he will still be very young when the time comes for him to turn free agent.
I think this is a great deal for the Giants, with a modicum of risk, but that probably was necessary to get a long term deal signed. I'll take it, because Bumgarner can be one of the premiere starters in the league once he gets a few more seasons under his belt, and he's already pretty good as is right now. After his bad start to the 2011 season, in 29 starts, he had 187.2 IP with 2.79 ERA, 182 K's and only 36 BB for a 5.1 K/BB ratio (best starters are above 2.2 and ideally over 2.4; yes, he's that far above). And in 2010, after his first bad start, in 17 starts, he had 104.0 IP with 2.86 ERA, 81 K's and only 25 BB for a 3.2 K/BB ratio. So if Madison can get his early season struggles under control, he could end the season with an under 3 ERA with a lot of strikeouts and few walks.
The only negative that I never noticed before is that his BABIP for the above two sequences was .323 BABIP in 2011, .322 BABIP in 2010. Pitchers that are that bad with BABIP usually get flushed out, but because Madison walks so few plus strikes out so many, he is more than surviving that negative. Of course, the DIPS rule is that he should regress to .300 BABIP, and hey, that just means that he'll be even better than he has been doing. Scary good.
Good Core Set of Young Players
Now the Giants have Sandoval, Cain and Bumgarner signed for long term contracts. Lincecum is covered for 2012-13. This is mostly what I had been hoping for this past off-season, getting our young core players signed long term, hopefully Lincecum is serious about wanting a longer term deal beyond the two year deal. I can wait for next off-season for that to happen.
I still would like to see Buster Posey get signed to a long extension sometime in the next year or so. I understand the reticience not to before, since we don't know how his body would respond and how he would come back. Probably not going to get something done this season, but hopefully by next off-season. According to an MLB Trade Rumors post I just ran across, the Giants are looking into signing Posey and Lincecum long-term (check here for that post for more info on that pearl from Bobby Evans) and both sides expressed interest in such a deal.
And I know it is early, but as I noted as a possibility during the offseason, if Melky Cabrera looks pretty good, we should look into signing him up long-term before he becomes a free agent. The Giants don't have to do that now, but I hope they are at least letting Melky's agent feel some love and at least greasing the wheels for such a move before the season ends, so that we can get him signed before he goes free agent, once that decision is made by Giants management. With only Gary Brown (especially with his scuffling in Richmond right now) and Francisco Peguero looking good in the minors (though Roger Kieschnick is renewing his prospect status with a great start this season in AAA, which shows what he can do when he isn't injured, as he was in prior season).
As it is, the Giants have a pretty good core set of players that they are relying on to lead them to future championships and titles. Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner in the rotation, and Bumgarner is potentially the best of the group if he can get it all together. Posey, Sandoval, Cabrera in the middle of the lineup, plus Belt (I still think he'll be good eventually; remember, Matt Williams took a few seasons to figure it out in the majors, he used to strike out a lot too). And despite his early struggles, I think Gary Brown will eventually be leading off for us and terrorizing pitchers and catchers across the majors and Joe Panik will be a good hitter up top for us too, in the #2 spot.
This is why I still feel good about my prediction/proclaimation of the Giants being the team of the 2010's, it will be their decade, and now that they have Cain and now Bumgarner signed into the second half of the decade, it is looking like a lot better prediction than it did pre-2010, when I was saying that for a few years already. This is why I've been saying that we should stay the course and keep the current management in place, at least until they screw up something badly, like not signing Cain or Bumgarner to long-term extensions. Check and check.