- Tim Lincecum: the only news up to now had been that the Giants proposed a 4 year extension and Lincecum's camp suggesting a 1-2 year deal or an 8 year deal. It was announced today that Lincecum asked for $21.5M and the Giants offered $17M. The Giants offer set a record and Lincecum's asking price was just short of Clemen's $22M asking salary a while back. MLBTR sez $19.2M estimated, and the mid-point for the two is $19.25M. DrB suggested on his blog that Tim would do as last time and sign a two year deal for $17M in 2012 and $21.5M in 2013, and that sounds right. I wonder if the Giants might use the mid-point for 2012 (so around $19M) and then around $21.5M ($21M? $22M?) for 2013. I still expect the Giants to sign him to a 5 year deal in the $120M range, maybe $127M to be symbolic as the largest contract ever by Giants, though that would probably mean a team option for year 6 plus, say, a big buyout for the 6th year: $19M, $21M, $23M, $25M, $27M plus $12M buy out (for $127M) or $30M salary.
- Angel Pagan: MLBTR estimated $4.7M and he signed for $4.85M plus up to $150K in PA incentives.
- Melky Cabrera: MLBTR estimated $4.4M and he signed for $6.0M. The salary works out to $7.5M level of production (the saber-assumption that 3rd year arb cases earn roughly 80% of the going rate of production). Plus that amount is roughly what Cody Ross got in arbitration last season, and what he produced in his career, mid-to-high 700 OPS, is what Melky has produced over his last three seasons, .282/.332/.420/.752, roughly, just slightly less. Ross got $6.3M, Melky slightly less. By that standard, Cabrera looks like he got roughly what he should have gotten, that estimate seems off by a lot, perhaps including his 2010 stats in the calculations.
- Pablo Sandoval: MLBTR estimated $3.2M, but luckily, in the series of posts explaining the methodology, it noted that Pablo's estimate was based on his 2011 PA, which as we all know was reduced significantly by his hamate bone breakage. Using a full season 650 PA, they stated that his estimated salary would have been $4.7M. I would also point out that the methodology noted that the system was within $320K of the actual about 50% of the time for their test data, so it is not like the estimate is the final word, nor a sign of over/under paying, just a good guidepost to compare against. That $4.7M works out to a $11.25M free market salary, and applying the 40%/60%/80% rule, that adds up to $21.15M for the three years. Maybe sign him to a $18M contract for 3 years ($4M, $6M, $8M) plus a 4th year team option at $10M (Giants get a slight discount for guaranteeing him all that money and committing to him) If they went to a 5th year option, maybe $12M. Oops, just got news that the Giants just signed him to a 3 year contract (Schulman), Shankbone noted on DrB the dollar values: $3.2 million this year, $5.7 million in 2013, $8.25 million in 2014, or 3 years, $17.15M. If Sandoval has another good season in 2012, I wouldn't be surprised if they extend him another couple of seasons on top of that contract.
- Ryan Vogelsong: MLBTR estimated $2.5M and the Giants signed him to a two year, $8.3M contract, I believe $3M for the first year and $5M for the second, and $300K buyout if the Giants don't pick up the team option for a third year. I don't recall seeing what that third year salary was for.
- Santiago Casilla: MLBTR estimated $1.9M and he signed for $2.2M, with $200K in incentives.
- Sergio Romo: MLBTR estimated $1.3M.
- Mike Fontenot: MLBTR estimated $1.3M and he signed for $1.05M, which I think was his salary from last season too.
- Nate Schierholtz: MLBTR estimated $1.2M, and I would remind that this is based on part time play, he should get more if he were a starter based on their methodology, so he might have big escalators put in place in case he does become a full-time starter in 2012. Schulman in the blog link above noted that Nate signed for $1.3M.
- Emmanuel Burriss: MLBTR estimated $600K. He is signed but no reported figure has been released. The minimum salary in the new CBA is $480K, so I think he'll be closer to that than the $600K.
The Giants, as per their M.O., tries to avoid arbitration like the plague. They have settled almost all the above arbitration cases, except for the tough ones, Lincecum and Romo (I had Sandoval here too but his signing was announced while I was writing).
I expect the Giants to try to sign Lincecum to multi-year contracts, per my speculation above.
I assume Romo's agent is playing hardball because of how historically great Romo's season was last season. Or maybe he's also hoping to cash in on a multi-year deal as well, though given Romo's arm problems, that would be risky on the Giants part unless he signs a 3 year deal for around $4M. Based on the MLBTR estimate, Romo's 3 year should be around $5.85M, +/- $1M. So maybe as high as $5M for the 3 years of arbitration.
And looking at the signings the Giants did with Affeldt and Lopez, that $1.3M looks low for Romo, I think $1.6M is closer to what he should be looking for 2012. Still, $5M for 3 years seems pretty good to offer, that's roughly one year worth of good relief, so he could be injured and out for two years and still pay off with one good season.