Friday, April 16, 2010

Your 2010 Giants are 7-2: Beat LA! Beat LA! Beat LA!

The Giants have won all three series they have played in so far.  They have been lucky to some degree so far, as Astros have been terrible and, well, the Pirates are the Pirates, plus they avoided Lance Berkman in Houston and Chipper Jones against Atlanta.

Still, they have faced a pretty good string of pitchers:  Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez, Brett Myers, Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami, plus Maholm and Charlie Morton.  They have all had sub-4 ERAs in recent years.  Only Burres was easy, but he was an emergency starter, so what would you expect (and the pitcher he replaced, Ross Ohlendorf, had a sub-4 ERA in 2009).  And taking out Burres start, the Giants have still averaged 5.6 runs scored in those 8 games against, again, pretty good starting pitching (at least they were in recent years).

And one thing I like to do to analyze how well an offense is doing is count the number of games where the offense scored 4 runs or more.  To me, when the offense has scored 4 runs or more, the team should win most of the time, so it did its job.  The Giants were 66-15 last season when they scored 4 runs or more (they were 12-7 when they scored exactly 4).  And that was with the lousy 4.0 average runs scored per game team of 2009.  The Giants have scored 4 runs or more 7 times in 2010 so far, which matches their 7-2 record.

Similarly for the defense - pitching and fielding - if they keep the runs allowed to 4 and under, I count that as doing their job, and that they should win most of the time.  The Giants were 81-30 when they keep their runs allowed to 4 runs or less (they were 12-12 when they scored exactly 4; as to be expected when they averaged 4 runs scored per game).  The Giants have allowed 4 runs or less 7 times in 2010 so far, which also matches their 7-2 record.

And now they face the hated D-gers.  The D-gers are 3.5 games behind us, and it has been their pitching, or lack thereof, that has dropped them to 3-5.  To show how desperate they are, they have Russ Ortiz, yes, that Russ Ortiz, in their bullpen (Colletti is one GM who loves ex-Giants, a small club including Billy Beane, the Pirates, Orioles, and I think Toronto might be one soon as well).

Game 1:  Todd Wellemeyer vs. Vicente Padilla

Wellemeyer had a nice first 6 innings, but unfortunately, possibly due to the use of the entire bullpen in the game before, Bochy brought him out for the 7th, whereupon he was beat upon.  His 6th was a bit shaky, as the announcers noted it, where he gave up a homer, flyout, then a deep flyout, and I was hoping he would go out.

However, another good reason NOT to bring him out, besides the bullpen, is that unless Bochy puts Wellemeyer into such situations where he's struggling a little, he won't ever know what Wellemeyer is capable of.  His opinion would become a self-fulfilling prophesy.  And that is something many fans don't seem to understand, particularly in the early parts of the season, or even mid-season:  sometimes you take the chance to stretch him out to see what he's capable of.  Then later, you can make a better decision on what the right decision should be.  Hence why Bochy sometimes makes decision that "anybody" can see is wrong;  sometimes, you need to take that risk/chance to learn about your player.

Padilla is not his late-2009 LA self:  2 starts, 11.42 ERA.  But that is mainly the 14 hits in 8.2 IP, as he struck out 8 and walked "only" 4, which is high but when a pitcher's K/BB ratio is 2.0 or better, he is doing well.  And he is pitching in LA, home of one of the most consistently extreme pitcher's park of the past 50 years.  That's why Jeff Weaver comes back here all the time, he looks good here, and then signs for big money elsewhere based on that, then ends up back here because he looks horrible there.

Still, this is Padilla, who, aside from pitching incredibly well for LA in late 2009, has been a mediocre to poor starter for the past 6 seasons, and it is that performance that I expected him to regress to this season, and his poor start to this season only confirms that expectation.  And he got beat up by Pittsburgh, who, as we saw this week, does not have as good an offense as the Giants do.

With a well rested pen and a pitcher's park, I think Wellemeyer can do OK to the 6th inning, whereupon our now well-rested pen can come in and shut down the D-gers the rest of the way.  And Padilla will make enough mistakes that we make him pay for it, and the Giants should sneak away with a win, despite our #5 starter facing their #1, but it's not a gimme.

Game 2:  Tim Lincecum vs. Charlie Haeger

Well, the way Lincecum has been pitching, while there is never an automatic win, we do expect days where Lincecum starts to be one in the win column.  However, this is not one of them.

Not that I think Haeger is all that good.  Looking at his historical performance, Lincecum should win this battle.  However, Haeger is a knuckleballer, and the only way to beat one is to have a lineup of patient hitters unwilling to swing at the slop unless it is a strike.

And as any Giants fan knows, our lineup is the antonym of patience, and Haeger in his first start of the season made the Marlins look silly with 12 strikeouts in 6 IP.  They are a bunch of free swingers, striking out 22% of their AB's in 2009.  The Giants, while better this year, is still a bit of a free swinging team, though as recent articles by Schulman showed, they are now in the middle, with some good at taking pitches (Renteria, Huff, DeRosa) and others not so much (and you know who they are).  Still, they are still last in the NL in pitches per PA with 3.61 (average of 3.84); Florida has a 3.98 pitch per PA.

Still, despite his good performance, he still gave up 4 runs (3 ER).  So it is not like the Marlins did no damage,.  However, they did that with only 3 hits (1 homer) and 4 walks.  Not every team can score 4 runs on 3 hits and 4 walks.  But the Giants have been pretty good at manufacturing runs this season by stringing together key walks and hits to get runs, so there is that.

I'm going to have to call this a push, it can go either way basically depending on which Haeger shows up, the one that did that to the Marlins or the one who has been showing up for the prior four seasons.

Game 3:  Barry Zito vs. Clayton Kershaw

Zito is probably off to his best start ever, certainly best as a Giants and the first time he won the first two starts in the season since 2003.  He didn't even do that in 2002, his Cy Young season, where he didn't win two games until his first start in May, and last year he didn't win his second until June 5th.  He has been known to be a slow starter and typically have a better ERA in the second half of the season, where his fanaticism with working out benefits him by him being stronger than others relatively as the season drags on.  He has also done well in D-ger Stadium, compiling a 3.86 ERA there over the years.

Still, Clayton "The Craw" Kershaw is not chopped liver himself.  He has a 2.51 ERA at home for his short MLB career (1.83 last season), and is their (so far) better version of Madison Bumgarner.  However he has had a tough 2010 season so far, only got to the 5.1 IP mark once in two starts, and had 6 walks and 5 walks, respectively in those two starts.

If he's the 2010 version, then we got this game easily, but if he the 2009 version, then we don't got a chance.  It can go either way, and I have no idea. But the good news is that he has no clue what the problem is.

Giants Thoughts

Any D-gers series is always tough.  Especially since we only have one of Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez facing them, so they get off relatively easy.  Still, Zito has been on a roll and Wellemeyer shut down the Braves for 6 IP.  This series can go either way, but with the Giants pitchers generally doing very well and the D-gers pitchers have NOT been doing very well, particularly the bullpen, I would have to think that they can pull off a series win here as well but there are two many question marks about the D-gers starting pitching to say that definitively.

Go Giants!

2 comments:

  1. Padilla pitched the game I thought Wellemeyer would pitch and vice-versa. But if it wasn't for the bullpen's leakiness, the Giants actually could have won this game instead of coming up just short, 10-8, as Wellemeyer gave up 7 runs early.

    At least it shows that the offense does not lie down and take it, down 7 runs is pretty daunting and they did the biggest portion of the comeback in the 9th.

    It also shows that if the Giants starter can only keep the score close, the D-gers bullpen should be flameable enough to enable us to win.

    With Rowand HBP and broken bones in the face and a slight concussion, but no DL yet, that means one less on the bench plus perhaps Velez getting the shot to show what he got in CF. Though against LHP, Torres could play there and Schierholtz maybe in RF (I don't think he has played RF yet, Velez, that is). Luckily with Lincecum starting, we won't need as much offense, plus against a knuckleballer like Haeger, Rowand is probably not the right guy to face him anyhow, though Velez and Schierholtz wouldn't be much better either.

    Speaking of which, Bowker appears to be blowing his chance, if he doesn't perk up offensively by mid-May, that's about when Bochy's patience is gone and the clock is ticking to replace (both Ishikawa and Lewis last year were put on notice around then).

    ReplyDelete
  2. What a game! Both ways, Lincecum pitched quite a game, and the offense scored at will, led by Lincecum's 3 hits and 3 RBI's!

    The Giants were unfazed by the knuckleballer, and now has scored 17 runs in two games in pitcher park D-ger Stadium. Plus, they did it mostly without extra-base power, a lot of the scoring happened with walks and singles.

    Hopefully Zito can keep it going and take on Kershaw.

    Rowand put on DL, time out could be 3 weeks, but surgery would probably add one week, though that probably would be better healed.

    Matt Downs was called up because he's been swinging the hot bat lately more than Rohlinger.

    ReplyDelete

Labels

1984 Draft (1) 2007 Draft (14) 2007 Giants (52) 2008 Draft (22) 2008 Giants (53) 2008 season (6) 2009 Draft (18) 2009 Giants (87) 2009 season (24) 2010 Decade (10) 2010 Draft (11) 2010 Giants (137) 2010 NL ROY award (1) 2010 season (19) 2010's (3) 2011 Draft (9) 2011 Giants (84) 2011 season (8) 2012 Draft (11) 2012 Giants (93) 2012 season (11) 2013 Draft (3) 2013 Giants (38) 2013 season (5) 2014 Giants (19) 2014 season (8) 25 man roster (7) 3B (1) 40 Man Roster (4) 6-man rotation (1) 89 Quake (1) 89 World Series (1) A's (6) A-Ball (1) A-Rod (3) AA-Ball (1) Aaron Rowand (25) accomplishments (1) Adalberto Mejia (4) Adam Duvall (1) AFL (4) Alex Hinshaw (3) All-Star Game (1) almost perfect game (1) Amphetamine (2) analysis (3) Andre Torres (14) Andres Torres (2) Andrew Susac (4) Andy Baggerly (1) Andy Sisco (1) Angel Joseph (1) Angel Pagan (9) Angel Villalona (29) Anniversary (1) appendicitis (1) Arbitration (12) Armando Benitez (5) Armando Gallaraga (1) art of failure (1) ATT Park (1) Aubrey Huff (20) Award (4) BABIP (2) Barry Bonds (28) Barry Zito (77) Baseball America (2) Baseball Prospectus (2) Baseball Prospectus Bias Against Giants (3) baseball strategy (5) Baseball Study (12) baserunning (2) batting peripherals (1) batting stance analysis (1) batting title champion (1) Beat LA (6) bench players (1) Bengie Molina (14) Benjamin Snyder (1) Bert Blyleven (1) Beyond the Box Score (1) Bias Against Giants (1) Big 6 (7) Bill Hall (1) Bill James Handbook (2) Bill Neukom (21) Billy Beane (1) Blog Philosophy (2) Bob Howry (2) Bob Mariano (1) Bobby Evans (1) Brad Hennessey (5) Brad Penny (2) Brandon Bednar (1) Brandon Belt (36) Brandon Crawford (17) Brandon Hicks (1) Braves (5) breakout (1) Brett Bochy (2) Brett Pill (9) Brian Anderson (1) Brian Bocock (2) Brian Cooper (1) Brian Horwitz (3) Brian Ragira (2) Brian Sabean (40) Brian Wilson (14) Bruce Bochy (22) Bucky Showalter (1) bulllpen (1) Bullpen (20) Bumgarner (1) Business Plan (13) Buster Posey (89) Byung-Hyun Kim (1) Cained (4) call-ups (1) Cards (8) Career Prospects (3) Carl Hubbell (1) Carlos Beltran (4) Carlos Gomez (1) Carney Lansford (2) Carter Jurica (1) catcher injury (4) catching (1) CC Sabathia (1) censorship (2) CEO (2) Chad Gaudin (5) Charles Culberson (5) Charlie Culberson (3) Chase Johnson (2) Chillax (1) Chris Gloor (1) Chris Heston (2) Chris Lincecum (1) Chris O'Leary (1) Chris Ray (4) Chris Stewart (4) Chris Stratton (8) Christian Arroyo (3) Christmas (1) Christopher Dominguez (3) Christy Mathewson (1) Chuckie Jones (2) Clay Hensley (3) Clayton Blackburn (5) Clayton Tanner (3) Closer (7) closer by committee (3) Coaches (3) Cody Hall (1) Cody Ross (8) Col (1) Comeback Award (1) Commissioner (1) competitiveness (1) Conor Gillaspie (22) contender (1) contract negotiations (1) contract signing (4) Cory Hart (1) Craig Whitaker (2) cuts (1) Cy Young Award (5) D-backs (14) D-gers (31) D-Rocks (3) D-Rox (16) Dallas McPherson (1) Dan Ortmeier (11) Dan Otero (2) Dan Runzler (6) Daniel Slania (2) Darren Ford (1) Dave Roberts (11) David Aardsma (1) David Huff (2) David Loewenstein (1) Decade of the Giants (10) decline (1) Defense (6) Deferred Money (1) deleted comment (1) Derek Law (4) Detroit Tigers (1) DFA (3) DH (2) Dick Tidrow (1) Dirty (1) DL (1) dodgers (2) Donald Snelten (1) Draft (1) Draft Analysis (7) Draft Bonus (7) draft signing (2) Draft Strategy (11) Draft Study (2) Draft Success (2) drafting (1) Dres (16) Edgar Renteria (13) Edwin Escobar (4) Ehire Adrianza (12) Eli Whiteside (4) Elimination game (1) EME (2) Emmanuel Burriss (18) epic season (6) Eric Byrnes (1) Eric Surkamp (6) Eugenio Velez (12) extension (6) fanfest (1) Fielding (3) Fielding Stats (3) first post-season press conference (2) Francisco Peguero (4) Fred Lewis (3) Freddie Lewis (17) Freddie Sanchez (4) Freddy Sanchez (7) Free Agency (3) Free agent possibilities (17) Free agent signing (4) Free agent signings (21) gamer-tude (1) Gary Brown (22) Geno Espinelli (1) George Kontos (3) Ghosts of Giants Drafts (1) Giants blogs (1) Giants Chat (2) Giants Draft (7) Giants Drafts (2) Giants Farm System (29) Giants Franchise record (2) Giants Future (62) Giants GM (4) Giants Greats (2) Giants hitting manual (1) Giants No-Hitter (4) Giants Offense (21) Giants Offseason (21) Giants Strategy (34) GiDar (1) Gino Espinelli (1) glossary (1) good will (1) Graphical Player (1) Gregor Blanco (11) Gregor Moscoso (1) Guillermo Moscoso (2) Guillermo Mota (2) Gustavo Cabrera (3) Hall of Fame (7) Hall of Shame (3) Hank Aaron (5) Happy Holidays (2) Hate mail (1) heart-warming (1) Heath Hembree (6) Hector Correa (1) Hector Sanchez (8) Henry Sosa (8) HGH (1) high expectations (1) high school focus in draft (1) Hitting (15) Hitting Coach (1) hitting mechanics (3) hitting pitchers (2) hitting streak (1) Hitting; (1) Home Run Career Record (7) Home Run Hitting Contest (1) Hunter Pence (17) Hunter Strickland (1) Idea (4) improvement (1) Indictment (1) injury (1) instant replay (2) instructor (1) Interesting Question (1) International Free Agent Pursuits (3) International Signings (5) interview (3) Investment (1) Ivan Ochoa (2) Jack Taschner (4) Jackson Williams (2) Jacob Dunnington (1) Jacob McCasland (1) Jake Dunning (1) Japanese Starters (1) Jarrett Parker (5) Jason Stoffel (1) Javier Lopez (5) JC Gutierrez (2) Jeff Kent (1) Jeff Suppan (1) Jeremy Affeldt (9) Jeremy Shelley (1) Jerome Williams (1) Jesse English (2) Jesse Foppert (1) Jesus Guzman (4) Joaquin Arias (7) Joe Panik (9) Joe Torre (1) Joey Martinez (2) Johan Santana (1) John Bowker (22) Johneshwy Fargas (2) Johnny Bench (1) Johnny Monell (1) Johnny Rucker (1) Jonah Arenado (1) Jonathan Mayo (1) Jonathan Sanchez (48) Jose Canseco (1) Jose Casilla (1) Jose Guillen (3) Jose Mijares (3) Jose Uribe (2) Josh Osich (3) JT Snow (1) Juan Perez (4) Juan Uribe (9) Juggling Monkey (1) Just Say No (1) Kendry Flores (1) Keury Mella (1) Kevin Correia (2) Kevin Frandsen (22) Kevin Pucetas (10) Kung Fu Panda (29) Kyle Crick (10) Larry Baer (2) Larry Ellison (1) Lead-off (2) left-handed (1) Lew Wolff (1) LHP (1) Lineup (17) lineup construction (1) Lineup position (1) Long-Term Contract (21) long-term planning (3) luck (1) Luis Angel Mateo (2) Mac Williamson (5) Madison Bumgarner (107) Mailbox (1) Malcolm Gladwell (1) management change (3) management issues (5) managerial value (2) Manny (1) Marc Kroon (2) Marco Scutaro (10) Mark DeRosa (8) Martin Agosta (6) Marvin Miller (1) Masahiro Tanaka (1) Mason McVay (1) Matsuzaka (1) Matt Cain (107) Matt Downs (2) Matt Graham (1) Matt Holliday (1) Matt Morris (2) Mechanics (4) Media (15) Media Bias (17) Media Trade Idea (3) Medical (1) Mediocy (9) Mediots (3) Melk-Gone (1) Melky Cabrera (14) mental (1) Merkin Valdez (8) Message in a Bottle (1) Michael Main (1) Michael Trout (1) Miguel Cabrera (2) Miguel Tejada (5) Mike Fontenot (3) Mike Kickham (8) Mike Matheny (1) Mike Morse (5) milestone (1) minor league contract (1) minors (10) mismanagement (1) mistakes (2) MLB (2) MLB stupidity (2) MLB Success (6) MLB Trade Rumors (1) MLBAM (1) MLBTR (1) MLE (1) Mock Draft analysis (3) MVP (1) Natanael Javier (1) Nate Schierholtz (45) Nathanael Javier (1) Naysayers (1) Negotiations (1) Nick Noonan (25) Nick Pereira (1) Nick Vander Tuig (2) NL Champions (2) NL West (21) NL West Division Title (15) NL West Future (1) NLCS (15) NLCS MVP (1) NLDS (7) Noah Lowry (14) non-roster invitees (1) non-tenders (1) NPB (1) Oakland A's (4) OBP (1) oddities (1) Offense (3) offensive era (1) Omar Vizquel (3) one-run games (1) Opening Day (4) opening day pitcher (1) opening day roster (3) Optimism (1) Osiris Matos (2) Outfield (1) Ownership (7) Pablo Sandoval (84) Panda (5) Pandoval (1) passing (1) Pat Burrell (15) Pat Misch (5) Payroll (8) Pedro Feliz (12) PEDS (10) Perfect Game (2) perjury trial (1) Personal Reminiscence (2) Pessimism (1) Pete Rose (3) Peter Magowan (2) Phillies (7) Phoenix Theory of Rebuilding (1) Pitch Count (3) pitch value (1) Pitching (14) Pitching Rotation (50) pitching staff (1) plate discipline (1) Play Ball (1) player budget (2) player development (2) playoff (2) playoff hopes (23) playoff roster (1) playoff rotation (3) Playoff Success (18) Playoffs (26) postmortem (1) PQS (53) press conference (1) pressure (2) priorities (1) Projected Record (3) projection (2) promotion (1) prospect (2) prospect analysis (1) Prospect of Note (3) prospect study (1) Prospects (42) questions (1) Rafael Rodriquez (8) Rajai Davis (2) Ralph Barbieri (1) Ramon Ramirez (3) Randy Johnson (9) Randy Messenger (2) Randy Winn (14) Rangers (5) Ranking (4) raspberry (1) Ray Durham (5) re-sign (2) Rebuilding (4) Rebuilding Myths series (1) Reds (5) Relocation Concession (2) Research (2) resource scarcity (1) Retired (3) Retirement (1) return (1) RHP (1) Rich Aurilia (7) Rick Peterson (1) Rickie Weeks (1) Ricky Oropesa (3) right-handed (1) risk mitigation (2) risk profile (1) Rod Beck (1) Roger Kieschnick (13) Ron Shandler (2) Rookie of the Year (1) Roster (4) ROY (2) Rule 5 Draft Pick (3) rumors (9) runs support (1) Russ Ortiz (11) Ryan Garko (2) Ryan Klesko (4) Ryan Rohlinger (2) Ryan Theriot (3) Ryan Vogelsong (52) Ryder Jones (2) Sabean Naysayers (4) Sabermetric Thoughts (5) sabermetrics (3) Salary speculation (3) SALLY (1) San Jose Giants (1) San Jose Relocation (3) Sandy Rosario (1) Santiago Casilla (8) Scott McClain (2) Scott Shuman (1) Scouting (1) Sergio Romo (13) SF Giants (2) Shilo McCall (1) Shooter (1) shutouts (1) Signature Song (1) signing (12) Silly-Ball (3) South Atlantic League (1) South Bay Rights (1) Spring Training (15) standings (1) starting lineup (14) starting pitching (40) STATS (1) Steroids (5) Steve Edlefsen (4) Steve Johnson (3) Steve Okert (1) Sue Burns (1) sunk costs (1) superstition (1) Team Speed (1) Team Support (1) The Giants Way (1) The Hey Series (15) Thomas Joseph (3) Thomas Neal (9) Tigers (4) Tim Alderson (17) Tim Hudson (4) Tim Lincecum (143) Todd Linden (3) Todd Wellemeyer (6) Tommy Joseph (3) top prospect list (4) Trade (9) Trade Analysis (15) Trade Idea (7) Trade PTBNL (2) Trade Rumors (28) trading (1) training staff (2) Training Tool (1) Travis Blackley (1) Travis Ishikawa (39) turning point (1) Ty Blach (2) Tyler Horan (1) Tyler Rogers (1) Tyler Walker (2) umpire mistake (3) Umpires (3) USA Today (1) Voros McCracken (1) Waldis Joaquin (5) walks (1) WAR (1) Warrior Spirit (1) Wendell Fairley (10) What-If Scenario (3) wild card (1) wild card race (1) Will Clark (1) Willie Mac Award (1) Willie Mays (1) Winter League (1) World Series (18) World Series Champions (10) WS Ring Bling (1) Yusmeiro Petit (6) Zack Wheeler (9)