Pablo Projections

Grant at McCovey Chronicles is running a Pablo Sandoval projection thread, and below is what I wrote, with new stuff, as I am wont to do:

Projections: Ceiling and Floor

Here is what Baseball Forecaster currently projects for Kung Fu Panda:

AB: 415
BA: .294
OBP: .319
SLG: .482
OPS: .801

HR: 14
Runs: 73
RBI: 85

If Pablo ended up with, say, 625 AB instead (playing a full season), his counting stats would be the following, at the same rate per AB:

HR: 21
Runs: 110
RBI: 128

CHONE's projection, I think, would make a nice floor for what Pablo can achieve in 2009. The authors of The Book determined that CHONE had the best projection system in 2008, and CHONE projects:

AB: 477
BA: .283
OBP: .315
SLG: .426
OPS: .741

HR: 11
Runs: 64
RBI: 68

In 625 AB, roughly 15 HR, 85 Runs, 90 RBI.

I would say that these numbers are pretty good floors and ceilings for what Sandoval could do in 2009, both part-time and full-time. Given his youth, great strikeout rate (it's real, he's been doing it like that in the minors, so the league won't catch up with him as some suggests; a low walk rate does not mean that he has a hole waiting to be exploited, it could mean he's hyper aggressive in swinging the bat), and his breakout in 2008, which was due to his power kicking in, he is about as sure a prospect as any player, and I would lean more towards the high end of the projections, in terms of power.

Power is Key Indicator Here

Because his power actually kicked in in 2007, looking at his spray chart, it is not like 2008 was a fluke power year, he was already displaying it in 2007, only under different circumstances. He had 23 batted balls that traveled over 350 feet in 2007, but 9 of them were to straight-away center for outs and hits (mostly outs) but no homers. In 2008, looking at his Connecticut spray, all his long hits were pulled for homers, and in SJ, he either pulled them or hit them out further into center, making them no doubts, many of them were over 400 ft, some approaching 450 ft.

Thus, his power definitely kicked in during the 2007 season, and he then adjusted to pull them more to make them pay off in homers in 2008. So, each season was a year of growth and development, first in learning to hit for more power, second in learning how to take advantage of that power by pulling the balls more. He grew and adjusted, whereas the league was unable to counter him.

In addition, his 2008 MLB stats were skewed because he didn't hit very many flyballs while in the majors. He had a much higher flyball rate in the minors than he had in the majors in 2008, and thus, if he is able to hit more flyballs in 2009, more of them should go out for homeruns. Lastly, his HR/FB rate was only 8% when the average major leaguer is around 10% (the 10% mean pitchers are suppose to regress to; hitters have their own HR/FB rate), and given his bodyshape and weight, one would think that he would have a higher HR/FB rate than the average hitter.

Defensively OK at 3B, Not So Much at C

CHONE projects -3 runs for his defense at 3B, which seems right to me. Despite his girth, most reports I've seen on his defense is that with experience there, he will be OK there defensively.

Whereas I have not seen any scouting reports that were optimistic enough to think that Sandoval can play catcher decently as a regular. So any plus offense he might do there, he could be negating a lot of it via his play behind the plate. And that is in spite of his strong arm that caught a lot of base stealers, so that means the other parts of his defense there has to be much worse.

People who think he can be a catcher is dreaming. The thing is, people point out that he hasn't played 3B since 2006, but the fact is that he was a 3B when we signed him, he only converted to be a catcher while with us, and clearly he not only has a lot more to learn as a catcher, there are scouts who think that he won't ever learn it enough (unlike Posey, who is projected by some to win a Gold Glove eventually).

BA thought he can be average at 3B with experience in 2006, but noted this last season: Though he has arm strength and threw out 46 percent of basestealers with San Jose, his hands and lack of agility work against him at catcher. They also quoted scouts who had seen him catch and they said that they didn't believe Sandoval could play at catcher regularly in the majors. Plus, two managers said Sandoval had problems just physically squatting behind the plate. McKamey wrote in his 2007 book that as a catcher, poor agility prompted his move to the corner infield where Pablo can be average defensively with his soft hands and arm strength. So stop thinking that he can be a decent catcher if only the Giants would trade Molina and play him instead.

And it is not like 3B is a sure thing for Sandoval either. I've read a lot of complaints about him playing 3B. But I think there is at least a chance he can figure things out there defensively, based on what I've read from scouts, and we can take 2009 to have him figure that out since that is a position of need for us.

At least he would have had a year in the majors and we would have a much better idea what type of MLB hitter he is. If he is a good hitter but poor defensively anywhere he goes, then maybe he can be a super-utility player who can be our backup catcher, 1B, and 3B, while still seeing a lot of games, plus be our DH when the time comes for that. That could give him up to 75-100 starts plus a good bat off the bench. That would be an advantage for us, assuming he's the hitter he appears to be, because then he could be the DH for us in the World Series, should we be lucky enough to get that far.

Or he could be traded to an AL team and get us another good position prospect, perhaps for SS since that is a place we are lacking.