Tuesday, June 05, 2007

ChiSox and Dye Rumor

A recent Chron article noted that "If the White Sox decide to sell, the Giants might be interested. Two of general manager Brian Sabean's top talent evaluators, Paul Turco and Ted Uhlaender, scouted the Sox in Chicago and Toronto last week. Outfielder Jermaine Dye is a free agent after the season and could be on the block. "

This was brought up at MLB Trade Rumors, and I am posting the comment I put there here:

I didn't understand why Dye was mentioned in the Chron article on the Giants. Bonds isn't going anywhere, Roberts just signed as a free agent, and Winn has a no-trade contract, so he won't play in the OF for the Giants.

The only place he could conceivably play is 1B, where he has played only once in his career. And as nice as Dye is as a hitter, Klesko has a much better OPS than Dye right now, despite Dye hitting 10 homers already. Plus Klesko has been on a tear since the start of May, his OPS since then is around 950, about 200 points better than Dye. Plus Dye's stats are inflated by playing at his hitter friendly home.

Seems like Dye was only mentioned because he's a free agent. This is like the joke of looking for the quarter under the street light when you lost it over there in the dark.

Now, I can see the Giants talking to the ChiSox about SS. Williams wanted to sign Vizquel but the Giants beat him to him. The Giants appear to not be ready to re-sign Omar, who will be a free agent after the season.

The Giants could swap Vizquel for Uribe and get younger in the process. Both have been struggling, so it could be an even swap or maybe the ChiSox could throw in a reliever, they just sent down Aardsma, a former Giants prospect, since Vizquel is probably still a superior defensive SS over Uribe and thus a bit more valuable. Plus is still a better hitter even though he's over 40 now and Uribe is under 30.

The Giants could also use relievers or an upgrade at 3B, perhaps pick up Crede and Josh Fields is promoted by ChiSox to be starting 3B. Not sure who the Giants would give up in that scenario, the ChiSox wouldn't want Feliz in return, so it could mean trading away Sanchez or other prospects. However, I would rather trade Sanchez for Fields instead.

Best trading chips, since Sabean said the starting rotation is not available (i.e. Lowry and Morris is not going anywhere), is Sanchez plus maybe Lewis since he is doing so well in majors thus far. I saw Nick Pereirra's name mentioned as a top prospect by one analyst, so he could be in the mix as well.
And I'm not saying the Giants are looking to trade them or that I would want to trade them, these are all just possibilities, assuming you make the leap that the Giants are interested in getting someone on the ChiSox.

Should also have noted that Dye was born in Vacaville, CA so he does have local roots, and so might be interested in staying long-term, if that is the Giants idea. Our new OF in 2008: Roberts, Winn, Dye? Plus he brings a balanced bat to the lineup, as well as his power, and he brings right-handed pop that we don't really have, Feliz and Durham is the best we got. And he has hit well in AT&T Mays Field, except for no homers in just 25 ABs here, though .983 OPS.

The main problem is just: where does he play? I suppose he could play 1B, but then Klesko and Aurilia are displaced. Aurilia could become the MI reserve, which would shove Frandsen to AAA. Or he could take 3B, which would displace Feliz into his uber-utility role again; I suppose he could start playing RF again with Winn playing CF when Roberts sits against LHP. Although if Vizquel is part of the trade, then that frees SS for Aurilia unless we get Uribe in return as I suggested above (but I like this better, getting Dye to play 1B and trading Vizquel to start Aurilia at SS). Klesko, in any case, would then become Bonds LF replacement plus tough righthanders for Dye at 1B, and get a lot less ABs than he was hoping and thinking, given that he's healthy now.

More of concern, though, is Dye has not been a healthy player since he turned 28, he has missed at least 16 games per season over the past 5 seasons, nearly 100 in 2003. And he is 33 now and health can only get worse. But he has had great pop in Chicago the past 2 and a part seasons so he would be a great upgrade offensively, the only question is where to put him, there is no spot in the outfield, so 1B is the best place, and he has never played there regularly.

I have to believe the Giants are looking at other players other than Dye in their scouting.

7 comments:

  1. If Sabean acquires Dye for Sanchez, Misch, or the likes, then he will be digging his own grave. The move of Armando was finally made due to Magowan and Co. really feeling the heat from the fans (and possibly the clubhouse). If Sabean moves youth for a guy with an injury-riddled (recent) past, the fans will only get louder. Except this time, it'll force Magowan to make the desperate move of firing his GM.

    I say no to Dye. Uribe could be an interesting acquisition, but do the ChiSox really want Vizquel now, two years after the fact? Thats something that I somewhat doubt.

    With Erstad a part of their OF (who is on the DL) and Podsednik on the DL, they could look to outfield help. I seem to remember hearing that their bullpen could use some help as well. So perhaps the Giants can deal Ortmeier and a AAA pitcher (or two) not named Misch or Sanchez for Uribe?

    This is not to say that I really want Uribe, I'm just stimulating discussion with possibilities. A trade for Uribe would significantly reduce the feasibility of acquiring an IF this offseason (other than perhaps re-signing Klesko). I don't know if I'd want that.

    Uribe's "slump" isn't just something thats been going on this season. Since his first season with the White Sox, his OPS has progressively dipped. I don't know if it's just a prolonged slump, or it's a sign of the badness that will continue to follow. He has a sizeable contract for someone who's OPS looks like it can dive below .600.

    I think that the Giants could afford to roll the dice this season and see if ARod opts out of his contract. If he does, then the team can make a run for him and fill SS with either Aurilia (not my first choice really) or Frandsen next season.

    Fields could be an interesting option. How do people perceive the potential of his bat? In his limited work with the big league club last year, he appeared to be overmatch (looking at stats) with 8 Ks in 20 ABs with a .150 average. He did have 5 walks, which kept his OBP above .300. Sanchez for Fields? It depends on how his bat projects, I suppose.

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  2. Hello Martin -
    Your comments about Uribe prompted some thinking about where the Giants might be going with their middle infield. They seem to have concentrated on that in the draft the past 2 years, looking for defensively gifted, fast (potential base stealers) the past 2 years. They have Omar signed thru this year, Durham thru next year. I took a look at the minor system middle IFs and this is what we have:

    SS
    name age lvl avg/obp/slg/obs
    Figueroa 33
    Ochoa 24 AAA 287/324/386/710
    Sw hitter, can't hit RHs
    Wald 26 AA 246/319/365/684
    Minc'zi24 AA 212/250/307/557
    Bocock 22 A+ 281/344/404/747 26/8 SBs; promoted from low A
    Burris 22 A- 165avg SJ, 385 in Aug. demoted to Aug

    The real prospects, as I see it, are Ochoa (only 24) who hasn't won the starters job (looks like a back up), Bocock, Burris. Minnicozzi has been disappointing this year. Bocock/Burris at least 2 years away. So, starting SS IS a position that needs to be adressed for next year, probably the year after as well. For 2010, Boccok, Burris, even Ocoa could all be in the mix, but they will have to do as well as Bocock has done this year.

    2B
    Bergolla 24 AAA 283/325/363/688
    Velez 25 AA 365/377/481/858 (52ABs) Wasn't Velez the guy who was hurt in the collision is ST? He just came up a few weeks ago from EX ST.
    Contreras 24 A+ 257/279/316/594
    Sanders 22 A- 313/432/426/858 16/2 SBs But demoted after poor 06 in SJ
    Shoop 20 A- 248/294/316/610

    Velez was an allStar at Aug last year and doing very well, but just started, in AA. Bergolla? Haven't heard much about him, but young and putting up steady numbers. But, between Frandsen, Velez, then 2 years later, Sanders and Shoop I don't think the Giants are REQUIRED to get a FA - unless they want power in the mold of Kent/Durham. But, if speed and D are what Sabean is looking for, Sanders, Shoop, Velez (at 2b) and Bocock and Burriss (at SS) provide it.
    If the Giants are looking for a 260 avg/ 320 OBP good defense SS, I am not sure they have that until '10 (It looks like Omar is no longer that guy - good D, but inadequate O). I still don't see where Uribe provides enough of anything to bring him in over Omar.

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  3. I was mainly trying to find a connection between the Giants and ChiSox for a possible trade. I'm not that enamored with Uribe either but then the Giants signed Neifi when I was glad that they released him...

    Thanks for the great stats for comparison Allfrank!

    The way I see it, only Frandsen is a legit MI in our farm system. Basically everyone else has disappointed this season, though it is encouraging that Burris is killing the ball in Augusta, but at one level a year, he won't make the majors until 26, which is OK but not great.

    Bocock is not doing that well, Cal League is a hitter's league. I would wait until we see how these hitters do in AA and AAA before we start penciling in anyone in the majors, our prospects seem to die on the vine there.

    Yeah, sfgfan, I would have to agree, if they trade for Dye, Sabean will probably have "Armandoed" himself with the fans. Fields is probably not going anywhere, if I were the ChiSox, I would trade Crede first.

    I have also wondered if the Giants will go with Aurilia or Frandsen at SS in 2008 as a transition year (Bochy said that Frandsen could be a starting SS in the future, but not now). Same for 3B, either could play there as well in 2008.

    It could also depend on A-Rod, if we are lucky enough to sign him, we could tangle a return to SS to get him to come, if that is an incentive for him.

    However, I've read that the Angel's billionaire is going to open his giant purse and sign A-Rod at any cost. Hard to beat that.

    But then Brandon Wood would have no place with Cabrera at SS and A-Rod at 3B and Kendrick at 2B, perhaps we can get him with package of Sanchez and others, we could clear out some Latin prospects for him, Waldis Joaquin, Sharlon Shoop (I thought he was a SS?). Just speculating out loud.

    Uribe brings youth plus better hitting going forward than Vizquel, given how lost Vizquel has been this season, it smells like Finley's last two seasons, he's just not hitting at all.

    Again, I'm not advocating for Uribe, I'm trying to understand how and/or why the Giants might want him.

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  4. Well, the Giants do have a quandry. They're set at 2b next year, principally with Durham who is adequate with the glove and well above average with the bat. They also have Frandsen.
    They do have a hole at SS. Actually, just like this year, they have problems all around the IF except for 2b. I am quite OK with an Aurilia/Klesko platoon at 1b. But Aurilia nor Frandsen can play on the left side everyday - not on a team with good pitching, but not many strikeout pitchers. They do not have the range. Aurilia is even a huge downgrade from Feliz at 3b; he is OK at 1b or as a utility guy.
    So, I think, they need a big upgrade at either SS or 3b. They could stay with Omar and a 240 BA if they get a lot more hitting from 3b - but I do not see them getting a defensive liability there. 3b has to be at least average defensively, and to downgrade your D to average at that position, you have to get a LOT of offense in return. Hence, no Aurilia, no Frandsen. It is all really interesting, but I think, for next year, they can go into the year with what they have at: C, 1b, 2b, CF, RF. Probably LF, as I think Bonds will be back in a much more part time role (350-400 ABs), so they are going to need a significant 4th OF (Shierholtz, anyone?). Given contracts and the acceptably performance from these 6 postions, really the upgrades almost certainly must come from SS and 3b. It is disappointing as I really would like to see Frandsen get a chance, but, realistically, he is blocked by Durham and cannot really give what is needed at SS, 3b. One could almost make a case that he is trade bait, along with pitching prospects, because what we really need is SS and 3b and Frandsen would only be in a utility role, which Aurilia can fill.
    Having said that, I am surprised they are not playing Ochoa full time in AAA to see if he might be the answer (he's only 24, getting on base, with a bit of power). Why waste playing time on 33 yr old Figueroa?

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  5. Having said all of that, I wonder "why bring in Dye?" God, I would hate to give up much to bring in a rental. And why give up anything to just get more of what we have (meaning, we are adequately covered in CF, RF w/ Roberts and Winn, and Dye doesn't seem clearly superior). I mean, this year more than most, I think you look at what you will have next year, meaning what we really need is SS, 3b, not an OF unless he is a huge upgrade an 850+ OPS and somewhat above average D. How hard are they to find?

    ReplyDelete
  6. Someone brought up on MCC at some point earlier in the week that maybe the Giants were just scouting White Sox weaknesses? Perhaps the Giants are just doing their "due-diligence" in seeing what teams need what. Perhaps Sabean is preparing for a shipment of a veteran to bring in some young potential.

    ReplyDelete
  7. I wonder why there isn't a lot of talk/interest/speculation regarding T Hunter or A Rowand. Those guys would be upgrades. Rowand, especially, I think would be affordable. Again, tho, the price would be pitching and, once Roberts gets back, we are pretty well set in the OF.

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