Friday, February 23, 2007

A Lesson About the Net

I just saw this prospect website - and I'm not linking to it, one, so as not to embarrass them, two, so as not to provide them help in their google ranking by linking to them - and I was aghast at who they list for the Giants Top 10 for 2007:
  1. Tim Lincecum
  2. Nate Schierholtz
  3. Jonathan Sanchez
  4. Kevin Frandsen
  5. Dan Ortmeier
  6. Emmanuel Burriss
  7. Benj (SIC) Copeland
  8. Fred Lewis
  9. John Bowker
  10. Eddy Martinez-Esteve
Where do I begin to rip this list? I don't have as good a feel for the farm system like past years because I was busy dealing with my mom's passing, but I think I know it enough to see that this list is lousy. I like Frandsen, but where's Villalona? I also like Ortmeier but his star has fallen and even I wouldn't put him on the Top 10 list, though in an ideal world I would give him a chance to make the roster, competing for the 5th spot in the outfield (unless Linden totally stinks, he's got that, plus Lewis is in the mix too). "Benj" Copeland is also nice but his offense isn't enough to put him on the Top 10 period, particularly since he was old to play in low-A ball last season, let alone above, say, Brian Wilson, Billy Sadler or Brian Anderson, and certainly not above Villalona or EME or even Fred Lewis.

Then there's Bowker. Boy.... First, he hasn't done much of anything in the minors, he has been a disappointment since his promising first season. But then to put him above EME and Villalona? I am not even sure Bowker would even make most Giants knowledgeable Top 30 lists It boggles my mind!!!

For example, I'm looking through my copy of Baseball America's 2007 Prospect Handbook and Ortmeier is near the bottom of their Top 30 list, Copeland is only 3 spots above Ortmeier, he is not even close to making the teens, and Bowker is not even on the list. I don't have their list from 2006, but I would bet that he wasn't on that Top 30 list either. In my copy of Minor League Baseball Analyst, none of them makes the Top 15 list of that book, and Bowker does not even get a mention in the player section, where there is about 25-30 Giants prospects listed.

Even a Giants fan who knows nothing about the team's minor league system, but who looked through all their minor league teams and picked out players with outstanding performances could have picked a better Top 10 list, so I have no idea how this guy created his top 10.

4 comments:

  1. allfrank, I know you didn't intend to do this and just innocently stepped into a bit of history, but I've purposefully have not been going to McCovey Chronicles and just posting here and other places because I don't want to see his moniker since it upsets me greatly.

    If you want to see why, then you (or anyone else) can look at my last comments on McCovey Chronicles when I was last active there or even research the history of me and him there and in Fanhome and find out why I simply don't care to see his name anywhere anymore. It might be hard but it's not impossible, someone else did it and kindly offered me his support.

    I do this to enjoy myself, but I get very upset seeing his name, so I'm probably going to be deleting your post at some point so that I don't have to see his name in my blog now. But I won't do it before answering your question, once I have time.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I like Sanchez too, but from what I read in an article from the Chronicle, it doesn't sound like he's going to break the rotation this year. It also doesn't seem like he's going to be sent to Fresno to work toward coming to the rotation.

    The little blurb at the bottom of the article had Bochy saying he doesn't want to juggle Sanchez between starter and relief. So if he starts the season in the 'pen, he's going to stay there.

    The good news is that Bochy says he's throwing a pretty good breaking ball right now. Maybe when the dust settles at the end of March, it'll be Russ Ortiz that's in the pen. I, somehow, find that very unlikely.

    Ortiz has fifth starter written all over him. He's an "ex-Ace" who is trying to re-establish himself as a serviceable starting pitcher. If he uses the fire that should be in him to succeed, I don't see why he doesn't show Bochy that he's a fully capable fifth starter.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Good points, sfgfan.

    Allfrank asked and I deleted: Sorry, Martin, this is off topic, but it has been on my mind. Initially, I thought the Giants scouts had to see something pretty significant before the team would spend even the minimun on him. Then I read in some blog today that he thought if he did reasonably well in ST he would get the 5 spot. I also read [someone’s] analysis of Sanchez on [somewhere]. He says Sanchez only has a FB and change up, that his slider is very, very inconsistent. He hopes they send Sanchez to Fresno to develop the slider, the third pitch he would need as a starter. He also thinks they may just need him in the pen and/or decide his future is in the pen and not as a starter. I have really high hopes for Sanchez, but it is looking to me like the organization may be thinking he is not starter material. Thoughts?
    (Friday, February 23, 2007 11:51:00 PM)

    Allfrank, I agree with sfgfan, Ortiz is the 5th starter barring him imploding like he had the past couple of seasons - and thus far everyone is raving about his returned velocity and stuff. Barring injury or Sanchez blowing the socks off everyone, Ortiz is probably the 5th starter.

    Thinking about it, I've read before that the dry air in Arizona does things to pitches (don't remember exactly what), and perhaps Ortiz screwed up his mechanics trying to compensate for his home park (a la what I've been complaining about Dodd and the Defenders' prospects).

    Anyway, back to subject, I think the Giants see Sanchez as a starter because from what I've read about him, he's unusual in that there (for some reason) is rarely a LHP with velocity so I think they will work with him to become a starter. Just because they decide to use him as a reliever on the MLB team this season does not mean that they won't try again next season.

    The Orioles and Earl Weaver was known to use pitchers in reliever roles to acclimate them to the majors, before they put them into the starting rotation, and I assume Dobson imparted that to our organization before his untimely death.

    This also allows Righetti and the coaches time to work with Sanchez to pick up the 3rd pitch he needs to be a starter, on the side since he'll be traveling with the main club. In the minors, Righetti wouldn't be there to work with him, and Righetti as a former lefty starter, one would think he would have something to teach Sanchez.

    The problem might be what the Giants need, starters or relievers, next year. Next year, we could have Zito, Cain, Lincecum, Lowry, Morris, Ortiz, and Sanchez battling for a spot in the rotation. This, of course, assumes Ortiz is back to at least #5 starter productivity.

    This can be a good thing, however, because a team can experiment with pitchers in the #5 spot and not hurt their team's chances for the playoffs. Thus the Giants could choose to start Sanchez in the #5 spot and could trade away any starting pitcher they deem expendible (I assume Lowry, Morris, and Ortiz) to get a young position prospect who is a good hitter (I assume it will be a package to get a good young hitter, not just that pitcher, our pitchers are not that good by themselves, unless Lowry has a standout season in 2007 after curve tips from Zito).

    I think the potential upside of Ortiz is being a #2/3 starter and he could bring something of value in trade if he is back. At worse, we owe him $300K+ and took a spot in spring training. Given all the comments I've heard, him returning to #2/3 status is not far-fetched, though still yet to be proven. Even his return to 3/4 status would mean that he has value in trade, as we only have him for this season. And I don't think it impossible that he does well in Spring Training while Sanchez also does well, resulting in trading Ortiz somewhere for prospects.

    With Threets and Taschner as lefties in the pen, for the future, I would bet on the Giants making Sanchez a starter. Here's what BA says in their prospect book (great buy for understanding prospects!): "Sanchez profiles as a quality starter."

    Oh, here's another reason why the Giants might bullpen him. BA notes, "The Giants aren't sure if Sanchez is ready to shoulder a full-season workload. He never has thrown more than 126 innings in a season and he has trouble maintaining his velocity when he's used on consecutive days." That would indicate that maybe the Giants might start him in the minors to build up arm strength for 2008.

    In any case, whereever Sanchez ends up, I would not take that as an indication the Giants think less of Sanchez as a starter. He clearly has a high ceiling and the Giants will do their best to reel in that talent and hit the jackpot. Where he ends up will all depend on what he shows this spring, but whereever he ends up, the Giants long term plan, at the moment, is to make him a starter.

    Just look at Ortiz. He was a closer all through the minors then the Giants took him and made him into a starter. So relieving does not mean the Giants think of Sanchez as a reliever, but it does mean that the Giants need a reliever and he would bring more to the role than they think Taschner would.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Although it is only half way through the season, do you still feel the same about John Bowker's performance? We all know about Dodd stadium, and with that in consideration, his numbers so far this season are quite impressive. Do you still feel the same way as you did in feb, or do you think he could be a considerable prospect in the upcoming years?

    ReplyDelete

Labels

1984 Draft (1) 2007 Draft (15) 2007 Giants (52) 2008 Draft (22) 2008 Giants (53) 2008 season (6) 2009 Draft (18) 2009 Giants (87) 2009 season (24) 2010 Decade (10) 2010 Draft (11) 2010 Giants (137) 2010 NL ROY award (1) 2010 season (19) 2010's (3) 2011 Draft (9) 2011 Giants (84) 2011 season (8) 2012 Draft (11) 2012 Giants (93) 2012 season (11) 2013 Draft (3) 2013 Giants (39) 2013 season (5) 2014 draft (5) 2014 Giants (45) 2014 season (13) 2015 season (1) 25 man roster (7) 3B (1) 40 Man Roster (4) 6-man rotation (1) 89 Quake (1) 89 World Series (1) A's (6) A-Ball (1) A-Gon (1) A-Rod (3) AA-Ball (1) Aaron Rowand (25) accomplishments (1) Adalberto Mejia (4) Adam Duvall (2) AFL (4) Alex Hinshaw (3) All-Star Game (1) almost perfect game (1) Amphetamine (2) analysis (5) Andre Torres (14) Andres Torres (2) Andrew Susac (5) Andy Baggerly (2) Andy Sisco (1) Angel Joseph (1) Angel Pagan (10) Angel Villalona (29) Anniversary (1) appendicitis (1) Aramis Garcia (1) Arbitration (12) Armando Benitez (5) Armando Gallaraga (1) art of failure (1) At the Rate They Are Going (1) ATT Park (1) Aubrey Huff (20) Award (4) BABIP (2) Barry Bonds (28) Barry Zito (77) Baseball America (2) Baseball Prospectus (2) Baseball Prospectus Bias Against Giants (3) baseball strategy (5) Baseball Study (13) baserunning (2) batting peripherals (1) batting stance analysis (1) batting title champion (1) Beat LA (6) bench players (1) Bengie Molina (14) Benjamin Snyder (1) Bert Blyleven (1) Beyond the Box Score (1) Bias Against Giants (1) Big 6 (7) Bill Hall (1) Bill James Handbook (2) Bill Neukom (21) Billy Beane (1) Blog Philosophy (2) Bob Howry (2) Bob Mariano (1) Bobby Evans (1) Brad Hennessey (5) Brad Penny (2) Brandon Bednar (1) Brandon Belt (38) Brandon Crawford (18) Brandon Hicks (1) Braves (5) breakout (1) Brett Bochy (2) Brett Pill (9) Brian Anderson (1) Brian Bocock (2) Brian Cooper (1) Brian Horwitz (3) Brian Ragira (2) Brian Sabean (40) Brian Wilson (14) Bridegrooms (2) Bruce Bochy (22) Bucky Showalter (1) bulllpen (1) Bullpen (21) Bumgarner (1) Business Plan (13) Buster Posey (91) Byung-Hyun Kim (1) Cained (4) call-ups (1) Cards (8) Career Prospects (3) Carl Hubbell (1) Carlos Beltran (4) Carlos Gomez (1) Carney Lansford (2) Carter Jurica (1) catcher injury (4) catching (1) CC Sabathia (1) censorship (2) CEO (2) Chad Gaudin (5) Charles Culberson (5) Charlie Culberson (3) Chase Johnson (2) Chillax (1) Chris Brown (1) Chris Gloor (1) Chris Heston (2) Chris Lincecum (1) Chris O'Leary (1) Chris Ray (4) Chris Stewart (4) Chris Stratton (8) Christian Arroyo (3) Christmas (1) Christopher Dominguez (3) Christy Mathewson (1) Chuckie Jones (2) Clay Hensley (3) Clayton Blackburn (5) Clayton Tanner (3) Closer (7) closer by committee (3) Coaches (3) Cody Hall (1) Cody Ross (8) Col (1) Comeback Award (1) Commissioner (1) competitiveness (1) Conor Gillaspie (22) contender (1) contract negotiations (1) contract signing (4) Cory Hart (1) Craig Whitaker (2) cuts (1) Cy Young Award (5) D-backs (14) D-gers (31) D-Rocks (3) D-Rox (16) Dallas McPherson (1) Dan Ortmeier (11) Dan Otero (2) Dan Runzler (6) Dan Uggla (1) Daniel Slania (2) Darren Ford (1) Dave Roberts (11) David Aardsma (1) David Huff (2) David Loewenstein (1) Decade of the Giants (10) decline (1) Defense (8) Deferred Money (1) deleted comment (1) Derek Law (4) Detroit Tigers (1) DFA (3) DH (2) Dick Tidrow (1) Dirty (1) DL (1) dodgers (5) Donald Snelten (1) Draft (3) Draft Analysis (8) Draft Bonus (7) draft list (1) draft signing (3) Draft Strategy (11) Draft Study (2) Draft Success (2) drafting (1) Dres (16) DRS (1) Edgar Renteria (13) Edwin Escobar (5) Ehire Adrianza (14) Eli Whiteside (4) Elimination game (1) EME (2) Emmanuel Burriss (18) epic season (6) Eric Byrnes (1) Eric Surkamp (6) Eugenio Velez (12) extension (6) fanfest (1) Fielding (4) Fielding Stats (4) finger injury (1) first post-season press conference (2) Francisco Peguero (4) Fred Lewis (3) Freddie Lewis (17) Freddie Sanchez (4) Freddy Sanchez (7) Free Agency (3) Free agent possibilities (17) Free agent signing (4) Free agent signings (21) gamer-tude (1) Gary Brown (22) Geno Espinelli (1) George Kontos (3) Ghosts of Giants Drafts (1) Giants blogs (2) Giants Chat (3) Giants Draft (7) Giants Drafts (2) Giants Farm System (29) Giants Franchise record (2) Giants Future (62) Giants GM (4) Giants Greats (2) Giants hitting manual (1) Giants No-Hitter (4) Giants Offense (21) Giants Offseason (21) Giants Strategy (34) GiDar (1) Gino Espinelli (1) glossary (1) good will (1) Graphical Player (1) Gregor Blanco (12) Gregor Moscoso (1) Guillermo Moscoso (2) Guillermo Mota (2) Gustavo Cabrera (3) Hall of Fame (7) Hall of Shame (3) Hank Aaron (5) Happy Holidays (2) Hate mail (1) heart-warming (1) Heath Hembree (8) Hector Correa (1) Hector Sanchez (9) Henry Sosa (8) HGH (1) high expectations (1) high school focus in draft (1) Hitting (15) Hitting Coach (1) hitting mechanics (3) hitting pitchers (2) hitting streak (1) Hitting; (1) Home Run Career Record (7) Home Run Hitting Contest (1) Hunter Pence (19) Hunter Strickland (1) Idea (4) improvement (1) Indictment (1) injury (2) instant replay (2) instructor (1) Interesting Question (1) International Free Agent Pursuits (3) International Signings (5) interview (3) Investment (1) Ivan Ochoa (2) Jack Taschner (4) Jackson Williams (2) Jacob Dunnington (1) Jacob McCasland (1) Jake Dunning (1) Jake Peavy (1) Japanese Starters (1) Jarrett Parker (5) Jason Heyward (1) Jason Stoffel (1) Javier Lopez (5) JC Gutierrez (2) Jeff Kent (1) Jeff Suppan (1) Jeremy Affeldt (10) Jeremy Shelley (1) Jerome Williams (1) Jesse English (2) Jesse Foppert (1) Jesus Guzman (4) Joaquin Arias (9) Joe Panik (10) Joe Torre (1) Joey Martinez (2) Johan Santana (1) John Bowker (22) Johneshwy Fargas (2) Johnny Bench (1) Johnny Monell (1) Johnny Rucker (1) Jonah Arenado (1) Jonathan Mayo (1) Jonathan Sanchez (48) Jose Canseco (1) Jose Casilla (1) Jose Guillen (3) Jose Mijares (3) Jose Uribe (2) Josh Osich (3) JT Snow (1) Juan Perez (4) Juan Uribe (9) Juggling Monkey (1) Just Say No (1) Kendry Flores (1) Keury Mella (1) Kevin Correia (2) Kevin Frandsen (22) Kevin Pucetas (10) Kung Fu Panda (30) Kyle Crick (10) Larry Baer (2) Larry Ellison (1) Lead-off (2) left-handed (1) Lew Wolff (1) LHP (1) Lineup (17) lineup construction (1) Lineup position (1) Long-Term Contract (21) long-term planning (3) luck (1) Luis Angel Mateo (2) Mac Williamson (5) Madison Bumgarner (121) Mailbox (1) Malcolm Gladwell (1) management change (3) management issues (5) managerial value (2) Manny (1) Marc Kroon (2) Marco Scutaro (11) Mark DeRosa (8) Martin Agosta (6) Marvin Miller (1) Masahiro Tanaka (1) Mason McVay (1) Matsuzaka (1) Matt Cain (122) Matt Downs (2) Matt Graham (1) Matt Holliday (1) Matt Morris (2) Mechanics (4) Media (15) Media Bias (17) Media Trade Idea (3) Medical (1) Mediocy (10) Mediots (4) Melk-Gone (1) Melky Cabrera (14) mental (1) Merkin Valdez (8) Message in a Bottle (1) Michael Main (1) Michael Trout (1) Miguel Cabrera (2) Miguel Tejada (5) Mike Fontenot (3) Mike Ivie (1) Mike Kickham (8) Mike Matheny (1) Mike Morse (6) milestone (1) minor league contract (1) minors (10) mismanagement (1) mistakes (2) MLB (2) MLB stupidity (2) MLB Success (6) MLB Trade Rumors (1) MLBAM (1) MLBTR (1) MLE (1) Mock Draft analysis (4) MVP (1) Natanael Javier (1) Nate Schierholtz (45) Nathanael Javier (1) Naysayers (1) Negotiations (1) Nick Noonan (26) Nick Pereira (1) Nick Vander Tuig (2) NL Champions (2) NL West (21) NL West Division Title (15) NL West Future (1) NLCS (15) NLCS MVP (1) NLDS (7) Noah Lowry (14) non-roster invitees (1) non-tenders (1) NPB (1) Oakland A's (4) OBP (1) oddities (1) Offense (3) offensive era (1) Omar Vizquel (3) one-run games (1) Opening Day (4) opening day pitcher (1) opening day roster (3) Optimism (1) Osiris Matos (2) Outfield (1) Ownership (7) Pablo Sandoval (87) Panda (6) Pandoval (1) passing (1) Pat Burrell (15) Pat Misch (5) Payroll (8) Pedro Feliz (12) PEDS (10) Perfect Game (2) perjury trial (1) Personal Reminiscence (2) Pessimism (1) Pete Rose (3) Peter Magowan (2) Phillies (7) Phoenix Theory of Rebuilding (1) Pitch Count (3) pitch value (1) Pitching (14) Pitching Rotation (54) pitching staff (1) plate discipline (1) Play Ball (1) player budget (2) player development (2) playoff (2) playoff hopes (24) playoff roster (1) playoff rotation (3) Playoff Success (18) Playoffs (26) postmortem (1) PQS (65) press conference (1) pressure (2) priorities (1) Projected Record (4) projection (2) promotion (1) prospect (2) prospect analysis (1) Prospect of Note (3) prospect study (1) Prospects (42) questions (1) Rafael Rodriquez (8) Rajai Davis (2) Ralph Barbieri (1) Ramon Ramirez (3) Randy Johnson (9) Randy Messenger (2) Randy Winn (14) Rangers (5) Ranking (4) raspberry (1) Ray Durham (5) re-sign (2) Rebuilding (4) Rebuilding Myths series (1) rebuttal (1) Reds (5) Relocation Concession (2) Research (2) resource scarcity (1) Retired (3) Retirement (1) return (1) RHP (1) Rich Aurilia (7) Rick Peterson (1) Rickie Weeks (1) Ricky Oropesa (3) right-handed (1) risk mitigation (2) risk profile (1) Rod Beck (1) Roger Kieschnick (13) Roger Metzger (1) Ron Shandler (2) Rookie of the Year (1) Roster (4) ROY (2) Rule 5 Draft Pick (3) rumors (9) runs support (1) Russ Ortiz (11) Ryan Garko (2) Ryan Klesko (4) Ryan Rohlinger (2) Ryan Theriot (3) Ryan Vogelsong (65) Ryder Jones (2) Sabean Naysayers (4) Sabermetric Thoughts (5) sabermetrics (3) Salary speculation (3) SALLY (1) San Jose Giants (1) San Jose Relocation (3) Sandy Rosario (1) Santiago Casilla (8) Scott McClain (2) Scott Shuman (1) Scouting (1) Sergio Romo (13) SF Giants (2) Shilo McCall (1) Shooter (1) shutouts (1) Signature Song (1) signing (12) Silly-Ball (3) South Atlantic League (1) South Bay Rights (1) Spring Training (15) standings (1) starting lineup (14) starting pitching (48) statistics (2) STATS (1) Steroids (5) Steve Edlefsen (4) Steve Johnson (3) Steve Okert (1) Sue Burns (1) sunk costs (1) superstition (1) Team Speed (1) Team Support (1) The Giants Way (1) The Hey Series (15) Thomas Joseph (3) Thomas Neal (9) Tigers (4) Tim Alderson (17) Tim Hudson (17) Tim Lincecum (158) Todd Linden (3) Todd Wellemeyer (6) Tommy Joseph (3) top prospect list (4) Trade (9) Trade Analysis (15) Trade Idea (7) Trade PTBNL (2) Trade Rumors (28) trading (1) training staff (2) Training Tool (1) Travis Blackley (1) Travis Ishikawa (40) turning point (1) Ty Blach (2) Tyler Beede (2) Tyler Horan (1) Tyler Rogers (1) Tyler Walker (2) umpire mistake (3) Umpires (3) USA Today (1) Voros McCracken (1) Waldis Joaquin (5) walks (1) WAR (1) Warrior Spirit (1) Wendell Fairley (10) What-If Scenario (3) wild card (1) wild card race (1) Will Clark (1) Willie Mac Award (1) Willie Mays (1) Winter League (1) World Series (18) World Series Champions (10) WS Ring Bling (1) Yusmeiro Petit (19) Zack Wheeler (9)