To get so close, only to lose four key games in a row, and two after getting a huge lead to start the game, really hurts to be a Giants fan now. The win of the last game of the AZ series helped, but it is tougher now that the DBacks and Reds are in the mix, on top of the Mets.
But it is what it is: the Giants, as I said in the preseason, is a team in transition, with youth in development, with holes that need to get filled during the offseason. Teams like that will have ups and downs, it is the nature of this stage of development of the Giants into a competitive team. The bullpen collapse is part of that up and down.
ogc thoughts
Some are questioning the deadline trades because of the bullpen collapse. Looking back with hindsight is always done by fans and the media, but usually done wrong: you need to look at the circumstances that precipitated the decisions, and not the bad aftermath of those decisions.
The situation was pretty clear: the Giants were dead in the water and needed a miracle collapse by the Mets, as well as a miracle win streak to get back into it. Plus the other teams in between not having an hot streak. All that happened, what were the odds? Anyone who saw that happening should have made a lot of money betting on that, else you are kidding yourself.
The Giants did well to acquire a handful of interesting prospects, as well as a good reliever who they still control for a couple more seasons. Butto (5+ years of control) alone is already a good return for a few months of Rogers, Doval (plus next season) and Yaz. In addition, Gilbert, Tidwell, Rodriguez, Marte, and others, all show interesting potentials to contribute next season and future seasons.
And the bullpen was gutted as a result, so of course it’s now a weak link. The hope was that the group would step up. So far, they are showing growing pains that happens with young and unproven players.
Hopefully someone will show that they deserve to get more opportunities next season. I am hopeful that Beck and Winn might be among those to do so, they were on the brink of MLB roster spots after 2023 but then injuries took them out.
And I believe the Giants can be consistently competitive starting next season if they can acquire another top of rotation SP to take the spot behind Webb and Ray and another set up reliever (as well as get Rogers back).
Competitive Window 2026 and Beyond
Devers, Chapman and Adames is a good core, but has a short 2-3 year window to compete going forward. Chapman is already 33 next season, but at least he does not appear to be slowing down. The hope is that Lee develops further to replace Chapman’s decline, and that Eldridge will rocket skyward in the next couple of years to keep us competitive longer term. But hope is no guarantee that this will happen, so the Giants need to commit more money to free agents.
This short window is why I don’t see the Giants having any choice but to spend top money for the best pitcher and best reliever (who is not a closer, much like when we signed Affeldt) on the market. Our history of wasting a large percentage of our payroll on closers (Nen, Benitez, Melancon) tells me that we just need to find good pitchers (like Sabean did picking up Casilla and Petit off the scrap heap, or signing Affeldt, or trading for Lopez, or promoting Wilson and Romo from the minors) and giving them opportunities to prove themselves.
Signing those would just leave open RF, DH, and closer. The starting roster otherwise seems set.
Ramos, despite his poor defense, is still a valuable hitter. Hopefully an offseason of defensive work will return his confidence, he wasn’t this bad in 2024. If not, he should still be valuable enough to trade to fill holes midseason.
Lee hit the wall midseason, as his body wasn’t prepared for a full MLB season, plus this was his first full season since 2022. Hopefully he can be more consistent and take the next step forward, like his buddy Kim did with SD.
The infield is set with Bailey, Devers, Schmitt, Chapman and Adames. Schmitt has done enough to hold the position, and hopefully has another step in development next season. Bailey also could take another step up, and maybe the Giants might even sign him to an extension next spring to buy out his arbitration and free agent years.
RF can be a mosh pit for Gilbert, Matos, Encarnacion, and others to fight over. Maybe even LF if Ramos continues to stumble defensively there. Probably DH as well, I doubt Eldridge will win a spot, he will likely start out in AAA. And unless he pushes his way up, he’s likely to stay there.
Closer can be fought over by the relievers in the bullpen. The A’s have got by this way for a long time under Billy Beane, the next man up philosophy. The Sabermetrics tenet is that relievers are fungible. I would offer the Core Four bullpen as a counterpoint, but right now, this Giants team had only one pitcher like the Core Four, Tyler Rogers, so the slate is clean, let’s find some relievers in the free agent market and in our farm system, and perhaps trade market.
And having a rotation of Webb, Ray and Roupp with another good starting pitcher should be good enough to drive a season of success in competing for a playoff spot. Another top of rotation SP would make our rotation great, and would be great depth should we lose anyone for any reason. And such a rotation would be a monster in any short playoff series.
As for the last starting pitcher, I am fine with Verlander if they decide to go that way. He has pitched great lately and should be able to repeat well enough next season. I think that sticking with the prospects (Whisenhunt, Teng, Seymour, Birdsong, Tidwell) would be okay, most teams cycle through a bunch of pitchers in the last spot. If they want to spend money on a mid rotation free agent SP, I would be okay with that as well. Any of these choices should work out.
If I had to choose, if they are signing a free agent, might as well get Verlander. I love his attitude, it should be a lesson to the rest of the team. He’s also an attraction, setting attaining new benchmarks during the season. And he looks like he can pitch well again.
But at 43, he’s at risk for anything breaking down, so then we got our youth anyway, to force their way up to the majors. Best of both worlds, because he’s not the only one who could break down. Hopefully they do it before the season ends, and get that settled quickly.