Your 2025 Giants: Thoughts on Rafael Devers

Tons of thoughts running through my head on Rafael Devers, after reading comments about the stellar trade for Rafael Devers. (Finished most of this June 22, but forgot to finish…)

ogc thoughts 

Many Red Sox fans are upset about the trade, and some have made complaints about Devers that might worry Giants fans. I’m also going to look into some positives. I am going to dig into some of these, for a balanced look into the acquisition.

Devers a Dude

Thought I would cover the positives first.  He reached the majors at age 20, which is elite.  Any player reaching MLB by age 22 or younger is elite.  

This article when he signed his giant ten year contract with the Red Sox listed a ton of accomplishments he made as a young player and over his career, showing how special he is as a hitter:

• He holds the Red Sox franchise record for most extra-base hits at the age of 25 or younger (333). One would think Ted Williams or Carl Yastrzemski would be, or other Boston greats
• His 139 home runs at the age of 25 rank second in club history behind only Tony Conigliaro (160).  Tony was going to be the next Boston generation great but a HBP cost him his career
• Since the beginning of 2019, Devers leads the majors in doubles (149) and extra-base hits (264) and leads the AL in hits (591) and total bases (1,078). Beat out Aaron Judge, pretty good!
• He is the youngest player in Red Sox history to record 200 or more hits in a season (201 in 2019 at 22 years old), as well as the youngest to record 50 or more doubles in a season (54 in 2019). Sign of a great hitter, reaching 200 hits
• He joins Ted Williams as the only Red Sox players to record multiple seasons of at least 30 home runs and 100 RBI before turning 25 years old. Great company!
• He holds the Major League record for most Postseason RBI at the age of 24 or younger (26) and is tied with Mickey Mantle, Albert Pujols, and Carlos Correa for the most Postseason home runs at that age (eight). Again, great company!
• Devers is the only player in Major League history with both a grand slam and an inside-the-park home run in the Postseason
• Devers has been named the Red Sox’ winner of the Heart and Hustle Award in each of the last three seasons it was presented by the Major League Baseball Players Alumni Association (2019, ’21-22)

It’s like Sandoval, he arrived in the majors and started hitting and, unlike Sandoval, hasn’t stopped. And since his 2021 breakout season, he’s hit .283/.356/.522/.877.  Since he’s been a regular starter in 2019, he has the 12th most fWAR, just behind guys like Ohtani and Semien, and just ahead of players like Acuna, Seager, Harper and Chapman.  He has a career .858 OPS and a wOBA of .369, 132 wRC+.  He has 24.9 bWAR and 27.6 fWAR overall. 

His WAR has been reduced by his poor defense at third, but not significantly, per Fangraphs, though Baseball Reference knocks him down more for his poor defense. His DRS is -61, which works out to 6-7 losses, about a loss per season. His StatCast leans more towards minimal to middle reduction, with a career -20 Run Value (though removing his outlier 2019 season puts him at -33, roughly -3 wins).  His OAA is -27 (about -3 wins) for his career, but subtracting 2019 puts him at -45. 

Still, he’s on a very good career track. I have found that in my analysis of draft picks, the HoF level players reach 54 bWAR and that great players reach 36 bWAR.  Devers is a far 30 bWAR away from HoF, but only 11 away from great players, while averaging 4 bWAR overall the past six seasons, and was on pace for 5-6 bWAR this season before the trade (of course, he’s been to struggling to hit so far with the Giants). At 28, he should be peaking over the next 3-4 seasons, barring injury, so he should easily reach 40 bWAR, and whether he reaches the 50 mark depends on his health as well as when his steep decline phase happens.

I also have a theory about the length of baseball careers: generally, the sooner the player reaches the majors, the longer his career will be.  And reaching by 20 puts many players on a long HoF track career. Of course, injuries and poor conditioning can and will reduce that possibility.  And many Red Sox fans are calling him fat.

Devers a Big Dude, Not Fat

Devers was listed at 6’ 195 pounds when he was signed, but per this 2017 scouting report , he was more like 210 pounds.  Today, MLB lists him at 6’, 235 pounds.  

I’ve looked at recent videos and pictures of Devers in the field and otherwise:

• Picture walking
• Video fielding at first base 
• Video of first AB ovation 
• First Giants hit: 111 MPH double 

He will never be considered a thin guy, but I see thick bodied players like him all the time.  Tony Gwynn and Kirby Puckett weren’t thin either.  And Harmon Killebrew was a big guy as well.

I don’t understand why Red Sox fans call him fat and compared him with Sandoval.  Of course, we Giants fans better remember Sandoval getting fatter over time, and Devers went from 195 to 235, so relatively for them, he is sure bigger, but seeing him in these pictures and videos, he just looks like a big dude, not a fat guy.

However, he may be at a size he needs to maintain or improve. Per Googling, a 6’ 235 lb man is obese per BMI, but that depends upon an average male’s body, not an athlete, who could have a lower fat composition and weights more because of his muscle. So he hopefully doesn’t add any more weight.  Also, his sprint speed per StatCast cratered in recent seasons, dropping from the 50’s percentile when he was younger, to the teens in recent seasons, showing the effects of the extra weight.

Still, there’s fit and then there’s baseball fit.  In the last game of the Red Sox series, he scored from first base on a double by Ramos.  It was with two outs, so he probably had a slight running start, but still, scoring from first on a double requires some wheels, in my estimation, enough wheels to score.  Plus, it was reported later that he was dealing with a groin and back pain, but was able to turn on his jets to score here.

Devers May Need to be DH

Still, a huge contract like this needs to be handled with care.  Devers only played 138 games in the 2024 season, partly due to a knee injury, but also due to what was called a nagging shoulder injury which bothered him all season and which ended his season prematurely. He avoided surgery, but, from my experience, shoulder injuries seem to be a lifelong issue, I recall a Giants infield player diving for a ball and hurting his shoulder again, and then last season Jung Hoo Lee injured his same shoulder again. 

Needless to say, we need a healthy Devers over the life of the contract.  So he should ideally be the DH full time, but it appears that the Giants want some flexibility to play him at first base, at least this season. Hopefully that doesn’t bite them in the rear, much like it did with Soler last season and Jerar this season. 

Home Park Effects

Per StatsCast Hits Spray chart, it looks like he would have had six more homers had he hit all his hits in SF:

And looking back at prior seasons, he would have had a lot more homers hitting in SF than where he played (Boston and the road), from 9-12 more.  

So it does not appear that the park will reduce his ability to hit well. His power is so good, it could play here. If anything, it might improve it because of Devers opposite field power, he spreads his hits very well, indicating that he’s going with the pitch and still getting the barrel on the ball well.  Posey was like that, able to hit to the opposite field when his swing is right. And if he’s adding that many homers, he’ll be regularly in the 35-45 homer range.

Of course, SF has the marine layer and much colder weather, so perhaps the ball won’t go as far for him.  But his first hit, line drive 111 MPH double, did not seem to be held back much though.  And then he crushed a homer into the seats easily later.  As his StatCast stats show, he’s one of the best hitters at putting a charge into the pitch and driving it into the seats.

Clubhouse culture 

Some mention that he’s no leader.  The Giants didn’t get Devers to be a leader. And with the Giants, he doesn’t have to worry about being the leader, both Chapman and Adames have been front and center for the team since signing with the Giants. And Webb and Yaz have been leaders on the team for years now.

In any case, Devers has said in an interview soon after signing his big contract that he’s not a leader. And luckily with the Giants, all he has to focus on is hitting and being a good teammate.  That he has shown so far, and with Adames being a friend from when they were 16 YO, he has someone watching over him and helping him acclimate.  

The criticism of him publicly from the Red Sox about being a bad example for their youth is CYA for their ineptitude in handling Devers.  When he signed his huge contract, he was told he was their 3B, not that he would need to move off the position at some point.  Given how poor a fielder he has been, they should have been preparing him for this inevitability. Then when he asked them point blank whether they are pursuing Bregman, he was told it was rumors. Then when Bregman was signed, Devers was told that Bregman was playing 2B. Then comes spring training and he is told he needs to move to DH and not worry about fielding this season.  I would be pissed too getting my chain yanked like that.

The Red Sox “leadership” (if you can call it that) kicked the can down the road for the difficult conversation they were going to have with their biggest contracted player.  They also showed him little respect along the way.  Then came the final straw when Casas is out for the season, and now they want him to play 1B, which he had offered to do in spring training, because then he could have practiced and trained to handle first, but was told he wouldn’t need to field.

As one can see, the reason he’s not taking another one for the team is that he hasn’t been treated like the most important player on the team, he was treated as if he was a rookie, being jerked around by management.  And some players don’t want to tackle a new position mid-season, preferring to do so in spring training, as he had graciously offered to them, but he was told to not worry about fielding (finally told that!) and to focus on DH-ing.

I’ve seen some complaints that Devers is immature.  I would counter that he’s human, expecting a certain level of respect due him, based on the size of contract signed, and the Red Sox failed him, and he was totally disrespected by the team during the whole Bregman incident. So is it immature of Devers to refuse to play first base, or a natural consequence of the long list of mistakes and disrespect he received from management?