Your 2025 Giants: Opening Day Roster

 The 2025 Giants Opening Day Roster is out, and there were some surprises:

• Catcher:  Bailey, Huff
• Infield:  Wade, Flores, Fitzgerald, Adames, Chapman, Schmitt, Koss
• Outfield:  Ramos, Lee, Yastrzemski, Matos
• Starting Pitching: Webb, Verlander, Ray, Hicks, Roupp
• Relief Pitching:  Walker, Doval, Rogers, Miller, Trivino, Rodriguez, Bivens, Birdsong

ogc thoughts

Surprise Roster Additions

As reported widely already, Landen Roupp beat out Birdsong (who actually pitched better overall, but had a short bad last appearance that apparently cost him, but I’ll discuss more later) and Harrison (he just fell behind the eight ball because of a bad virus at the start of camp that caused him to drop 15-20 pounds) to grab the fifth starter spot. Birdsong, in a slight surprise, was named to the ODR as long reliever, which I saw as a reward for pitching great in spring, but I expect him to be sent back down to stretch out his arm as a starting pitcher at some point in April.

I wasn’t happy about the concept of Harrison being sent down, because he has pitched well for most of his 1.5 seasons in the majors, until those last two starts ballooned his ERA from a good low 4’s to a poor mid-4’s.  It could be viewed as a demotion for him, and he could feel insulted. However, with the illness causing him to lose 10-15 pounds at the start of spring training, and then falling behind the others in terms of lengthening out his outings, it became a health concern that he was sent down, and thus a reasonable excuse.

I expect both Harrison and Birdsong to see many starts in the majors at some point.  Perhaps Roupp has problems:  he’s been injury prone during his career, and we don’t know how he adjusts to once the league has a book on him, can he adjust back?  Then there’s 42 YO Verlander, maybe another body part he didn’t take care of breaks down, like last season, or simply that he hasn’t pitched a full season in a while. Also, Hicks hasn’t started a whole season yet, and being diabetic requires special care, so what if there is some sort of obstacle they didn’t account for?  

Also, there’s so many starting pitcher options, as I captured in another post, someone will be traded at some point, and I wonder if Hicks is being prepared for that.  If he pitches great again and continues to do well into the trade deadline period, maybe he gets traded for a great prospect, which opens up a rotation spot for someone in AAA. I don’t anticipate that any of the top prospects (Harrison, Roupp, Birdsong, Whisenhunt) will get traded (as they are supposedly building for the future, but Winn and Beck have value as starters, but is already on the older side, and is likely stuck in AAA, so they could be traded when teams need a back of rotation guy.

In addition, there is the news of Wisely, the only LHH projected for the bench, being optioned down, which opened the door for Christian Koss to get on the roster, plus Casey Schmitt made the roster too, apparently taking Encarnacion’s spot.  But I think that they are in a battle to keep the backup infielder job, as well as impress the team of their long term capabilities, when Jerar Encarnacion is ready to rejoin the roster.  This also leaves the outfield short a backup, as neither has OF experience that has been reported, but maybe Wade can still do that in a pinch. 

Lou Trivino, unsurprisingly (he worked as a closer under Melvin when he was with the A’s) made the bullpen, and made it a non decision with great pitching, after being out of the majors due to TJS.  His addition to the 40-man roster required someone to be dropped, and Villar was DFAed to make space. 

And mildly surprising is Spencer Bivens winning the “do anything”bullpen role, which Hjelle held last season, but Bivens also did more of since he started too. He has done well in a wide variety of roles since joining the Giants last season.  He likely will be the long relief pitcher once the Giants decide that Birdsong needs to start games again. He’ll be the jack of all trades for the season, though I expect Hjelle to be back when Birdsong is sent back to AAA to start. 

2025 Giants Look Promising

This team looks like it will be a competitive team, but how competitive?  It could be another .500 or so season, like most of the past Zaidi era.  If the youth blossoms further, and the veterans perform as hoped, it could get into the upper 80’s, which is where they need to be to contend for the last wildcard spot.

Worse Case Scenario 

I think the base scenario is a .500 team again.  There will be some players rising up (maybe Ray, Lee, Matos, Schmitt) but some will fall (Fitzgerald, Ramos, too many key injuries, like losing Lee last season).  I think the upgrade of Adames at SS and Fitzgerald at 2B, plus a full season of Lee in CF, will help to keep the team in the low 80’s at minimum.  

As much as people are worried about the lineup, it’s probably around average again, which is doable (per my research) when you have a Top 3 pitching and fielding team. And with the addition of Adames and Fitzgerald in the middle infield, plus Lee in CF (Ramos was a game but horrible CF), the defense should be fine and perhaps elite, if Adames returns to his prior form.  It’s the pitching that is the big question mark. 

In this scenario, we would see injuries hurting guys who look good (like Keaton Winn last season), or lack of full season stamina (like Hicks, Harrison, and maybe Bailey last season), and that starts a merry go round of SP who struggle against MLB starters (like all those guys thrown in last season). 

Best Case Scenario 

There's a multitude of ways to improve on the Giants 2025 season over 2024. I like to pivot off the previous season, as a way to see how things might work out.  Per Baseball-Reference WAR Above Average analysis, this is the Giants overall plus/minus by position:

• SP:  -1.3
• RP:  -0.9
• C:  -0.5
• 1B:  -0.8
• 2B:  -2.1
• 3B:  +4.9
• SS:  +0.1
• LF:  -0.2
• CF: -0.6
• RF: -0.1
• DH: -0.7
• PH: -0.6
• Total:  -2.8 ( broken down -2.2 for pitching, -0.6 for position, which means that the position players were better than the pitching)

As you can see, almost every position was below average (which is roughly 2.0 bWAR) except for 3B, which was a whopping +4.9 above average, and SS, which was barely above average (at 0.1, basically average).  I would add that C (Bailey) is undercounted by about 2 bWAR (that’s the difference between Fangraphs and BR) because Baseball Reference doesn’t account for framing production. That would bring the total to -0.8 WAA or 80 wins, which is what they had in 2024.

Here are improvements I think are possible:

• SP:  Logan Webb averaged 4.7 bWAR, for the 3 prior seasons, about 1 bWAR better than last season, which was a down season. That’s roughly +2.5 WAA.  Ray should be about 4.bWAR, returning to his Cy Young prior level, he’s looked good this spring, about +2.5, putting us at +5.0.  Verlander looked capable of an average season.  Hicks as well, in tandem with a young SP, should work out to average as well, where average is 0.0.  Roupp and the young pitchers (Birdsong and Harrison will take up what Verlander, Hicks, and Roupp can’t start over a season), let’s assume only about a 1 bWAR season (much like Harrison last season), which is -1.0 WAA, which puts us at +4.0 WAA for SP, roughly an improvement of 5 WAA over 2024’s production.
• RP:  Doval looks to be getting back to his old ways. And that would bring the RP to roughly 0.0 WAA overall, assuming the rest of the bullpen is the same as last season, in performance, and he only improves by 1 bWAR. Improvement of 1 WAA.
• C:  Assume the same, but could be better if Bailey hits well the whole season vs. just first half.
• 1B:  Assume the same, which is pretty low, but if Wade is healthy and hits well the whole season, that would add at least a win.
• 2B:  A bad spot for the Giants in 2024 at -2.1 WAA, the hope is that Fitzgerald can hit well enough and field well enough to be average, which is 0.0 WAA. Let’s assume he’s roughly 1.0 bWAR, which is -1.0 WAA, but still an improvement of +1 over 2024.  We also have a good backup in Schmitt here, should Fitzgerald fizzle as the starting 2B.  And if Fitz hits as well as in 2024, that’s likely an improvement of at least 2 WAA.
• 3B:  Chappy had a great year, one he hasn’t had for years. At +5.0 WAA for 2024, let’s say he’s only half as good in 2025, so it is a decrease of 2.5 WAA.  But if he repeats close to what he did last season, that’s improvement. 
• SS:  At 0.1 WAA, there should be a huge improvement with Adames coming in. He had a down season last year with defense, which was reported as due to poor field conditions in Milwaukee.  He produced at a 4.3 bWAR rate the previous 3 seasons, or roughly +2.5 WAA, roughly an improvement of 2.5 WAA and negating the decline assumed for Chapman.
• LF:  Let’s assume it is about the same, slightly below average from Ramos.
• CF:  Most projections have Jung Hoo Lee at around 2.5 bWAR, roughly 1 WAA improvement.  There is some odds of him breaking out as well.   
• RF:  Yaz has been above average his whole time in SF. Plus Matos will be taking LHP, and appears ready to break out.  Let’s assume no change here, but if Matos breaks out, he could take over and push Yaz to backup and DH. 
• DH:  Flores and Encarnacion hopefully can get us to average, but let’s assume the same.  But there’s upside here if Flores hits like he did in 2023 or Encarnacion hits like he suggested he can in his short time with the Giants. 
• PH: Assume the same. But with Flores, Encarnacion and Schmitt on the bench, there is some chance of improvement here. 

Starting from a base of 80 wins, the above adds up to a total improvement of 8 WAA, which pushes the Giants to 88 Wins for 2025, which should be good enough to be strongly competitive for a Wild Card spot.  

More Realistic Scenario

I didn’t really assume much in the Best Scenario that isn’t realistic, but there are some that could turn the wrong way.  

• Ray could just be average, which drops us down, say, 2 WAA.  
• Let’s say Chapman drops another WAA lower, closer to what he was producing 2021-2023.  
• Let’s say Adames defense was on the decline, a drop of 1 WAA.  That drops us down to 84 wins for 2025.  
• Add in JHL being more below average than above drops 1 WAA as well, getting us down to 83 wins.  
• And maybe Verlander has another body part he didn’t account for go bad, and is only 1 bWAR, that’s a drop of 1 WAA, putting us at 82 wins if all the bad stuff happens.
• There’s also Fitzgerald (and his backups) not performing and produces only 1 bWAR, another drop of 1 WAA, and we are back to .500 and 81 wins.

So 83-85 wins seems like a norm where some bad stuff happens, but good stuff happens too, balancing out.

Why Lee Batting Third Make Sense

In the sabermetric tome, The Book, the optimal lineup has your best hitter batting second (Adames), then the best remaining power hitter fourth (Chapman), then your best OBP hitter (Wade vs RHP, Ramos vs LHP), then your next best hitter Fifth, then fifth best hitter Third. This is counter to the common thought of putting your best hitters 3-4, especially since Third is viewed as an RBI position.

So Lee makes sense from this perspective as Third in the lineup. As much as one wants to truss projections and what StatCast expects him to hit based on what he hit last season, he’s still a question mark and so it makes sense to bat him Third in the lineup, where, if he fails, it won’t hurt the offense as much as him leading off. And being paid this much, they can’t bat him any lower until he proves that he’s bad.