- Baseball America Top 10 Giants Prospects
- MLB Pipeline Top 30 Giants Prospects
- Baseball Prospectus Top 10 Giants Prospects
- FG: Top 36 Giants Prospects
- The Athletic: Keith Law Top 20 Giants Prospects
- Minor League Baseball Analyst (MiLBA)
- Baseball America: #14
- MLB Pipeline: #10
- Baseball Prospectus: Has not been released yet
- Fangraphs: Has not been released yet
- Keith Law: #10
- Minor League Baseball Analyst: #6 (A- in hitters, C+ for pitching, A for Top-End Talent)
Of course, with the coronavirus delay to the season, who knows how much of the 2020 season will be played. Stay safe and healthy out there!
ogc thoughts
Close battle for the top spot, but Joey Bart was #1 on four lists, #2 on the other two, while Luciano was #1 on two lists, #2 on three lists, and #3 on one list (Keith Law, who was the only one to place Heliot #2). Ramos was the consensus #3, and Bishop the consensus #4.
A number of players were ranked #5:
- Alexander Canario (BA and Keith Law)
- Seth Corry (MLB Pipeline)
- Will Wilson (BP)
- Luis Matos (FG)
- Logan Webb (MiLBA)
But when the farm system is flush with top prospects, there is a good chance of matriculating multiple players over a short period of time where there are good odds of them being good. And I think we are entering such a period with the Giants. Bart, Luciano, and Ramos look like sure things to make the majors right now, as well as Bishop, Corry, and Hjelle, and, of course, Dubon and Webb have already made the majors. Plus, there are young raw prospects who look good right now, Canario, Matos, Toribio, Pomares, Labour, and Genoves, who could make the climb to the majors, as well. Lots of raw talent that could become good players in the majors.
I think at least two of these players will be good players in the majors, if not great, and many of them will be major contributors. This is part of the reason I'm not doing the Big Six, because I think there are more than six who can be major contributors in the future. The next few years (depending on how COVID-19 affects sporting events, obviously) look like a golden period of re-birth of the franchise, with the NextGen Giants matriculating to the majors early and often.
For the top four prospects, I covered them extensively already in my post on Top 100 Giants Prospects, so read that for more on them, though I added stuff here too. I'll point out some commentary on a number of prospects that I would like to highlight, ones who I have been eyeing for potentially good players. Also, while I'll average each out, with a penalty for not being in a list, I went first with the prospects who appeared on every list, then those other players I would like to highlight.
Joey Bart
Joey was ranked in all of the six above Top Giants Prospects lists:
- Baseball America: #2
- MLB Pipeline: #1
- Baseball Prospectus: #2
- Fangraphs: #1
- TA: Keith Law: #1
- MiLBA: #1
That averages out to 1.3, with four #1 rankings and two #2.
Joey Bart was the obvious #1 choice because of both his potential that he has shown, plus his proximity to the majors, which is a major component (I believe) of most rankings. He looks like he'll definitely be a good player, but beyond that is a question mark. It'll probably depend upon how well he hits, because he's considered to be very good defensively already (with talk about Gold Glove capabilities) and his raw power is readily evident.
So far as a pro, he's struck out a bit too much and walked a bit too little. I take solace that in college, he started out slow and then learned each season to be a bit better, before blasting off in his junior year. That he hit .316/.368/.544/.912 in AA was a nice sign as well, as he was 2.1 years younger, and doing it at age 22 in AA (only the top prospects can produce as well as reach AA by 22 YO or earlier). And with a lot of power, I can overlook a non-elite strikeout rate and a low walk rate, it's a balancing act.
I expect him to start out in AAA for his final tune-ups before Zaidi brings him up to the majors (which just postponed the start of their season by two weeks, as a start). A sign the Giants think he's about ready is that they started having him practice at 1B. Another sign is that Belt came in, having worked out during the off-season to be more agile in running: the article noted that he's getting back into the shape he was in early in his career when he was stealing bases. Either the Giants asked him to or he read the tea leaves, but once Bart is promoted, basically he needs to start, and that means he's starting a lot at 1B, as well as C.
How much he starts at each depends on where Posey is at with his bat. He's had a good spring so far, and if that means the Posey of old is back, I see the Giants starting Posey mostly full-time (he usually gets up to 100 starts, in the past few seasons), somewhere between 80-100 starts, with Bart the backup. If Posey's bat is not there, I see Bart taking over the starting position, with Posey the backup.
Either way, when either of them are not catching, I see them grabbing a lot of starts at 1B (although a recent report stated that Posey was told to forget about 1B, so we'll see with Buster), which leads to the question of where Belt would play. Much like Posey, if Belt's bat is back, I think he'll be utilized in LF as a starter, because I don't see any of the young OF taking the position and holding it, except for Yaz. Hence why Belt got limber for this season (the article on NBC noted that he was getting back into the. shape he was in early in his career, when he was more of a SB threat), so that he can run in the OF, and play better defense. But if his bat is bad, as his batting line was in 2019 (but seems unlikely, he hit the ball hard, and was unlucky with balls not falling in), then he might be pushed out of the starting lineup by Bart's promotion.
Joey Bart was the obvious #1 choice because of both his potential that he has shown, plus his proximity to the majors, which is a major component (I believe) of most rankings. He looks like he'll definitely be a good player, but beyond that is a question mark. It'll probably depend upon how well he hits, because he's considered to be very good defensively already (with talk about Gold Glove capabilities) and his raw power is readily evident.
So far as a pro, he's struck out a bit too much and walked a bit too little. I take solace that in college, he started out slow and then learned each season to be a bit better, before blasting off in his junior year. That he hit .316/.368/.544/.912 in AA was a nice sign as well, as he was 2.1 years younger, and doing it at age 22 in AA (only the top prospects can produce as well as reach AA by 22 YO or earlier). And with a lot of power, I can overlook a non-elite strikeout rate and a low walk rate, it's a balancing act.
I expect him to start out in AAA for his final tune-ups before Zaidi brings him up to the majors (which just postponed the start of their season by two weeks, as a start). A sign the Giants think he's about ready is that they started having him practice at 1B. Another sign is that Belt came in, having worked out during the off-season to be more agile in running: the article noted that he's getting back into the shape he was in early in his career when he was stealing bases. Either the Giants asked him to or he read the tea leaves, but once Bart is promoted, basically he needs to start, and that means he's starting a lot at 1B, as well as C.
How much he starts at each depends on where Posey is at with his bat. He's had a good spring so far, and if that means the Posey of old is back, I see the Giants starting Posey mostly full-time (he usually gets up to 100 starts, in the past few seasons), somewhere between 80-100 starts, with Bart the backup. If Posey's bat is not there, I see Bart taking over the starting position, with Posey the backup.
Either way, when either of them are not catching, I see them grabbing a lot of starts at 1B (although a recent report stated that Posey was told to forget about 1B, so we'll see with Buster), which leads to the question of where Belt would play. Much like Posey, if Belt's bat is back, I think he'll be utilized in LF as a starter, because I don't see any of the young OF taking the position and holding it, except for Yaz. Hence why Belt got limber for this season (the article on NBC noted that he was getting back into the. shape he was in early in his career, when he was more of a SB threat), so that he can run in the OF, and play better defense. But if his bat is bad, as his batting line was in 2019 (but seems unlikely, he hit the ball hard, and was unlucky with balls not falling in), then he might be pushed out of the starting lineup by Bart's promotion.
Marco Luciano
Marco was ranked in all of the six above Top Giants Prospects lists:
But the sad truth is that, as it is with the vast majority of prospects you hope for, mostly like Genoves is not going to work out. Once you get past the top 1, 2, 3 prospects in any system, the ones following all have some high level of risk of failure. Baseball player development is a high volume business.
Even the prospects who were listed on most of the rankings, they are not going to work out. There is a good chance that Heliot Ramos won't work out, sometimes the hitter can't solve MLB-caliber pitching, which they sporadically see in the lower minors. One has to get comfortable, over time, with the duality that as good as a prospect looks like, and you count on matriculating, sometimes they flame out, for whatever reasons.
Jairo Pomares
Jairo was ranked by Keith Law as #15, Fangraphs as #16, and MLB Pipeline as #14.
Here is what MLB Pipeline noted:
I think that is where most discussions about players go off the rails: oh, he doesn't have enough for that position, usually power but sometimes other traits. Focusing on the power ignores the rest of the roster and how it is built, as well as what extra that player provides above whatever he is lacking. Hopefully, your team has players who are above average for their position, which allows your team to have below average at other positions, but hopefully above average in other aspects, like OBP or defense. So he could be useful, just not good, as a player, and all teams need useful players (like Gregor Blanco) to fill out the roster of good players, relieving the grind of a 162-game season, in order to reach the playoffs.
Because no team can be above average at every position. No team can find that much talent nor buy that much talent. Like all businesses, they have to make compromises in the mix of resources and risks that they take, to produce their product (in baseball's case, their teams). Sometimes it seems like these complainers are just looking for something to complain about (and unfortunately, the media sometimes foments that type of thinking). But the truth is that every team has weaknesses at many (if not most) positions, you just hope your team can find enough strengths across the board so that they can compete to win.
Other Interesting Prospects
As I noted, once you get past the first few, the odds of any making it gets incredibly dicey, and once you get past 10-15, there's a whole lot of risk to go with the hope, as baseball prospecting is a volume business. Other names I'll be watching in 2020 (many profiled on MLB Pipeline and Fangraphs), include:
Marco was ranked in all of the six above Top Giants Prospects lists:
- Baseball America: #1
- MLB Pipeline: #2
- Baseball Prospectus: #1
- Fangraphs: #2
- TA: Keith Law: #3
- MiLBA: #2
That averages out to 1.8, with two #1 rankings, three #2 rankings, and one #3..
I was in love with him the first time I watched a video on Twitter of him hitting batting practice, and even more so when I got a glimpse of him hitting in a game, and stroking an extra-base hit. He's still very raw, I mean, he's only 18 YO this season and probably will be placed with Augusta to start the season. Still, it says a lot that some already view him as the Giants top prospect, even with Bart around, and three (BA, BP, ESPN) ranked him in their Top 20 overall in their Top 100 Prospects list, as I view Top 20's to be pretty much sure things (unfortunately, can't share any of the three profiles).
It's pretty exciting to me that we have Luciano and Ramos coming up so close to each other. Ramos likely reaches the majors by 2021, if not this season (though with the coronavirus delaying the baseball season, indefinitely, he could be pushed into 2021), while Luciano could arrive as soon as 2021, though 2022 is more likely (and I would not have been surprised if he pulled a Belt and rise through the farm system in 2020 to AAA, and perhaps MLB, had the season not been delayed).
The Giants have never had two 20-ish star-potential players rising to the majors within a year of each other, that I can remember. Heck, haven't had many teenage signings just come up, let alone within a year of each other. Closest would be Sandoval in 2008 and Bumgarner in 2009 (so technically, we have had one), but Panda has been right on the edge of falling below the 18.0 bWAR threshold I use to designate the good players that teams want to find with the draft and IFA (he had fallen to 18.3 bWAR by 2017, before two positive seasons brought him back up to 19.8; two more seasons like 2015 and 2017 would push him under), so until he retires, I'm not counting them.
Even more so, I think there is good (but not great) odds that both could be great players. I went over in prior post on draft about how among the draftees, if I had to choose one to bet on being great, it would be Ramos (not Bart, though I think he has a chance too, just not as good as Ramos), both because his hitting in Advanced A mirrors what other great prospects (Acuna, Bellinger, Ramos) did in that league at basically the same age and because he's only 20 YO this season, so he's likely to debut by age 21 YO season (but he's clearly behind them in terms of peripherals, like strikeout rate and BB/K).
And Luciano looks prime to be great as well. Sure, way too early now, but don't take it lightly that Luciano was already ranked in Top 20 before he even played for a full-season minor league team yet, and he'll be only 18 YO making his debut in full season this season (once it starts). And if he hits and rises quickly like other precocious hitters (Ramos reached AA at age 19), he could reach the majors by age 19 in 2021 or age 20 in 2022. That's what the potentially great players do, reach the majors around 20 YO or so, and with a long career, compile the stats necessarily to reach 36.0 bWAR.
Heliot Ramos
Heliot was ranked in all of the six above Top Giants Prospects lists:
I was in love with him the first time I watched a video on Twitter of him hitting batting practice, and even more so when I got a glimpse of him hitting in a game, and stroking an extra-base hit. He's still very raw, I mean, he's only 18 YO this season and probably will be placed with Augusta to start the season. Still, it says a lot that some already view him as the Giants top prospect, even with Bart around, and three (BA, BP, ESPN) ranked him in their Top 20 overall in their Top 100 Prospects list, as I view Top 20's to be pretty much sure things (unfortunately, can't share any of the three profiles).
It's pretty exciting to me that we have Luciano and Ramos coming up so close to each other. Ramos likely reaches the majors by 2021, if not this season (though with the coronavirus delaying the baseball season, indefinitely, he could be pushed into 2021), while Luciano could arrive as soon as 2021, though 2022 is more likely (and I would not have been surprised if he pulled a Belt and rise through the farm system in 2020 to AAA, and perhaps MLB, had the season not been delayed).
The Giants have never had two 20-ish star-potential players rising to the majors within a year of each other, that I can remember. Heck, haven't had many teenage signings just come up, let alone within a year of each other. Closest would be Sandoval in 2008 and Bumgarner in 2009 (so technically, we have had one), but Panda has been right on the edge of falling below the 18.0 bWAR threshold I use to designate the good players that teams want to find with the draft and IFA (he had fallen to 18.3 bWAR by 2017, before two positive seasons brought him back up to 19.8; two more seasons like 2015 and 2017 would push him under), so until he retires, I'm not counting them.
Even more so, I think there is good (but not great) odds that both could be great players. I went over in prior post on draft about how among the draftees, if I had to choose one to bet on being great, it would be Ramos (not Bart, though I think he has a chance too, just not as good as Ramos), both because his hitting in Advanced A mirrors what other great prospects (Acuna, Bellinger, Ramos) did in that league at basically the same age and because he's only 20 YO this season, so he's likely to debut by age 21 YO season (but he's clearly behind them in terms of peripherals, like strikeout rate and BB/K).
And Luciano looks prime to be great as well. Sure, way too early now, but don't take it lightly that Luciano was already ranked in Top 20 before he even played for a full-season minor league team yet, and he'll be only 18 YO making his debut in full season this season (once it starts). And if he hits and rises quickly like other precocious hitters (Ramos reached AA at age 19), he could reach the majors by age 19 in 2021 or age 20 in 2022. That's what the potentially great players do, reach the majors around 20 YO or so, and with a long career, compile the stats necessarily to reach 36.0 bWAR.
Heliot Ramos
Heliot was ranked in all of the six above Top Giants Prospects lists:
- Baseball America: #3
- MLB Pipeline: #3
- Baseball Prospectus: #3
- Fangraphs: #3
- TA: Keith Law: #2
- MiLBA: #3
That averages out to 2.8, with one #2 and five #3.
As noted in prior post (and above), if I had to bet on one of the draftees becoming a great player, it would be Heliot. Although, I'm going on a limb here, because most rankings put him in the back half of their Top 100 rankings, but he had a really good season in Advanced A San Jose, and an okay debut in AA, hitting better than average, in spite of being over 5 years younger than average, meaning he was significantly better than the average player 4-6 years older than him.
Yes, he does strike out too much for comfort (29% at Advanced A, 35% in AA) and not quite walking enough (not at 50%; 38% in Advanced A, 30% in AA), so he will need to figure those out as he rises, and it does increase the odds that MLB-quality breaking balls could get him out easily, hence probably why the Top 100 rankings have him so low, until he proves himself more. Still, he's roughly where Bart is in walking (Bart had 30% in AA as well), and if he can get his K rate down to 30%, his BB/K would go up to 35%, which is similar to what he did in Advanced A, while creaming the pitches. It's all a balancing act, strikeouts are bad, yes, but if he can hit like he did in Advanced A, one can put up with his strikeouts.
I captured all the publicly available profiles, since there is a wide variety of opinions on him, in my prior post on Top 100. But I'll repeat Law's blurb here, since he ranked Ramos over Luciano, the only one to do so (bold mine):
I bought this book too late for the Top 100 post, so I'll note here MiLBA's Top 100 rankings:
Lastly, I would point out that another reason for their positivity is that they see him as a solid situational hitter who can also go opposite field, both signs of an advanced hitter who can adjust to how he's being pitched, which bodes well for him when he rises to upper limits. Assuming this is accurate, his level of strikeouts is related to a choice he's making to be aggressive in attacking pitches that he thinks he can hit, and not to being fooled by a pitch or a pitcher, overall. As long as he's being successful, as shown by a good batting line, I'm not too worried about the strikeout rate, but until he shows better discipline with the bat, the rankers will downgrade his potential.
Hunter Bishop
Hunter was ranked in all of the six above Top Giants Prospects lists:
As noted in prior post (and above), if I had to bet on one of the draftees becoming a great player, it would be Heliot. Although, I'm going on a limb here, because most rankings put him in the back half of their Top 100 rankings, but he had a really good season in Advanced A San Jose, and an okay debut in AA, hitting better than average, in spite of being over 5 years younger than average, meaning he was significantly better than the average player 4-6 years older than him.
Yes, he does strike out too much for comfort (29% at Advanced A, 35% in AA) and not quite walking enough (not at 50%; 38% in Advanced A, 30% in AA), so he will need to figure those out as he rises, and it does increase the odds that MLB-quality breaking balls could get him out easily, hence probably why the Top 100 rankings have him so low, until he proves himself more. Still, he's roughly where Bart is in walking (Bart had 30% in AA as well), and if he can get his K rate down to 30%, his BB/K would go up to 35%, which is similar to what he did in Advanced A, while creaming the pitches. It's all a balancing act, strikeouts are bad, yes, but if he can hit like he did in Advanced A, one can put up with his strikeouts.
I captured all the publicly available profiles, since there is a wide variety of opinions on him, in my prior post on Top 100. But I'll repeat Law's blurb here, since he ranked Ramos over Luciano, the only one to do so (bold mine):
Ramos was a top-100 prospect for me after his big 2017 debut summer, but he was overmatched in full-season ball the next year at age 18, and it seemed like he might be farther away from the majors than I originally thought. He bounced back to trounce Cal League pitching in 2019 after getting much stronger over the winter, making harder contact while also boosting his walk rate to over 9 percent. Ramos swings hard with big hip rotation, the kind of movement that will create some swing-and-miss while also leading to huge power. He’s a solid athlete, but the way his body is filling out eliminates any chance that he’s going to play center in the majors; he should be capable in right, though, and has the plus arm to play there. If he keeps refining his approach, he’ll unlock more power as he gets older, and he might be a classic No. 4 hitter with 30-plus homer power, some patience, and too many strikeouts to bat second.Also, MiLBA had a nice profile on him (bold is mine):
Exciting power/speed prospect who does everything well on diamond. Has controlled swing to make acceptable contact while also adding power to repertoire. Solid situational hitter and goes opposite way at will. Offers plus bat speed and natural strength. Runs well, though not a big SB artist. Probable RF down line, but good CF with very strong arm.I noticed that this is a theme across many of the Giants prospect who I profiled here, that they have good bat speed. Given most of these guys were acquired pre-Farhan, that seems to be an organizational focus for hitters.
I bought this book too late for the Top 100 post, so I'll note here MiLBA's Top 100 rankings:
- Marco Luciano: #20
- Joey Bart: #21
- Heliot Ramos: #38
- Hunter Bishop: #49
Lastly, I would point out that another reason for their positivity is that they see him as a solid situational hitter who can also go opposite field, both signs of an advanced hitter who can adjust to how he's being pitched, which bodes well for him when he rises to upper limits. Assuming this is accurate, his level of strikeouts is related to a choice he's making to be aggressive in attacking pitches that he thinks he can hit, and not to being fooled by a pitch or a pitcher, overall. As long as he's being successful, as shown by a good batting line, I'm not too worried about the strikeout rate, but until he shows better discipline with the bat, the rankers will downgrade his potential.
Hunter Bishop
Hunter was ranked in all of the six above Top Giants Prospects lists:
- Baseball America: #4
- MLB Pipeline: #4
- Baseball Prospectus: #4
- Fangraphs: #4
- TA: Keith Law: #4
- MiLBA: #4
That averages out to 4.0, with six #4. So he was a consensus #4.
Forgot to include Fangraphs profile in prior post:
Out of all the possible CF candidates the Giants have in the farm system (Ramos, Bishop, Canario, Matos, Pomares, Davis, Duggar), Bishop seems to be the most likely, in my view, of sticking at CF long term for the Giants (Duggar is second, only because his health is a big issue, and his bat isn't the best), as I haven't seen any questions so far on his ability to stick there (unlike most others), he hasn't been injured frequently (football player body to boot), and he seems like a good enough hitter that his power will keep him employed in CF. Too many strikeouts so far, but if the power stays, he could be one of those 3 True Outcomes sluggers, but the rare one that plays CF and has the speed to make the other team pay for walking him.
Lastly, there goes that term again, "plus bat speed", and this is Zaidi acquired prospect, so he seems to be buying into the Giants philosophy for finding hitters.
Alexander Canario
Alexander was ranked in all of the six above Top Giants Prospects lists:
Forgot to include Fangraphs profile in prior post:
Bishop changed his college commitment late (he was originally going to play two sports at Washington), and headed to ASU. After struggling as an underclassman, he arrived for his junior season with a better body and quieter swing, and broke out. He sent many non-conference pitches rocketing into Phoenix’s midnight sky before he started seeing — and swinging over the top of — Pac-12 breaking balls. Whether this is fixable was the subject of many draft room debates, as was Bishop’s relatively short track record of performance.
Bishop has rare physical tools. He’s a plus runner and will post 70 run times to first on occasion, has solid feel for center field and huge, playable power. It’s unclear why his arm strength dipped last year when it was an asset earlier in his career, but it’s not a significant part of the skillset and we heard nothing odd about his pre-draft medical, so we’re looking the other way. He’ll be a top 100 prospect as soon as we’re more confident in the hit tool.As noted just above, Bishop was ranked #49 by MiLBA, which was his highest ranking among the Top 100 ranks (next highest was #68 by BP). MiLBA had this profile:
Athletic OF with All-Star potential. Has all five tools at disposal with speed and power grading highest. Owns plus bat speed and making better contact as he ages. Can go to all fields, but double plus raw power is the highlight. Can be too patient at the plate. Runs wells and has 20 SB potential. Possesses plus range in CF with strong, accurate arm.As noted in my Top 100 post, and reiterated by FG, he had been splitting time between baseball and football, and only committing later to just baseball, so he's behind other comparable prospects in his age range in terms of experience, which gives him some potential upside (relative to others his age) as he catches up to others in terms of experience hitting, and he's hitting well in spite of striking out a lot already, and his plus plus power, as noted by MiLBA, helps with that, getting him walks (where he's been extraordinarily good, which some attribute to him being not aggressive enough with the bat, being too patient, passive).
Out of all the possible CF candidates the Giants have in the farm system (Ramos, Bishop, Canario, Matos, Pomares, Davis, Duggar), Bishop seems to be the most likely, in my view, of sticking at CF long term for the Giants (Duggar is second, only because his health is a big issue, and his bat isn't the best), as I haven't seen any questions so far on his ability to stick there (unlike most others), he hasn't been injured frequently (football player body to boot), and he seems like a good enough hitter that his power will keep him employed in CF. Too many strikeouts so far, but if the power stays, he could be one of those 3 True Outcomes sluggers, but the rare one that plays CF and has the speed to make the other team pay for walking him.
Lastly, there goes that term again, "plus bat speed", and this is Zaidi acquired prospect, so he seems to be buying into the Giants philosophy for finding hitters.
Alexander Canario
Alexander was ranked in all of the six above Top Giants Prospects lists:
- Baseball America: #5
- MLB Pipeline: #6
- Baseball Prospectus: #6
- Fangraphs: #9
- TA: Keith Law: #5
- MiLBA: #11
That averages out to 7.0, with a high of #5 (two) and a low of 11, median of 6.
MLB Pipelines profile (bold is my emphasis):
At Salem-Keizer, he was second in HR (to Franklin Labour, another Giants prospect; Ricardo Genoves, profiled down below, was tied for 7th, in spite of playing only 32 of 76 possible games, where Alexander played 49, and Franklin 41) and that got him 4th in SLG and 8th in OPS. He was also 15th in batting average, in spite of his bad rate of strikeouts.
His strikeout rate was horrendous, over 35% and nearly 40%, but as the two commentaries above noted, he has ridiculous bat speed (there goes that term again), combined with ridiculous power, making him, apparently, by my deduction, a great bad ball hitter, since he makes "all-fields contact even when he mis-hits balls". Those hitters (like Pablo Sandoval) can adjust quickly to pitches, plus drive pitchers crazy, not knowing which pitch they can use to get him out. These hitters also frustrates fans when they swing and miss on pitches way out of the strike zone. Sometimes it giveths, sometimes it taketh away.
The Giants have a number of interesting OF prospects and presumably some three out of this bunch will be the OF for much of the 2020's. Ramos certainly looks like he'll be the CF first, but then moves over to RF when another proves worthy of CF, maybe Bishop or Matos. Canario certainly looks capable of being one, but he has a long way to go before making it to the majors, plus strikes out a lot, and he has competition in others: Matos (also ranked 5th by a ranker), Pomares, Duggar, Davis, McCarthy, Slater, Shaw, among others. Even Dubon could end up with a spot, depending on things fall, maybe he figures out hitting for power but someone proves to be a starting 2B.
My hopes for Canario is that he becomes a power hitting RF, who can play CF when needed, as the Giants seem focused on getting players who can play all three OF positions, many of their OF prospects are CF capable. And every lineup can use a bad-ball wild swinging but good hitter to annoy the heck out of opposing pitchers.
Seth Corry
Seth was ranked in all of the six above Top Giants Prospects lists:
Luis was ranked in five of the six above Top Giants Prospects lists (BP did not rank):
MLB Pipelines profile (bold is my emphasis):
The Giants blew past their international bonus pool when they paid Bahamian shortstop Lucius Fox $6 million in 2015, limiting them to bonuses of no more than $300,000 in each of the next two signing periods. They found a bargain in 2016 with Canario, a $60,000 signee from the Dominican Republic who has one of the highest offensive ceilings in the system. He won MVP honors in the Rookie-level Dominican Summer League's all-star game during his 2017 pro debut and smashed 16 homers in 59 games between Rookie and short-season ball last year.
Canario's bat speed rivals Marco Luciano's as the best among San Francisco farmhands, and the loft and leverage in his right-handed stroke also are impressive, giving him well above-average raw power. Though he batted .291 in his first three pro seasons, he'll need to refine his extremely aggressive approach. He's pull-happy and his swing gets long when he hunts home runs, leading to a 30 percent strikeout rate in 2019.
An average runner out of the batter's box, Canario displays solid speed once he gets going. He broke into pro ball as a right fielder and spent 2018 as a center fielder before splitting time between the positions last season. He'll need to improve his reads and routes to remain in center, while his solid to plus arm strength fits nicely in right.Fangraphs noted (again, bold is mine):
Canario is still not a polished, skillful hitter — he has mediocre natural timing and feel to hit and his front side often leaks, which leaves him vulnerable against breaking balls away — so last summer’s batting average was higher than what we expect moving forward. But he does have ridiculous power and bat speed, which enables him to make impact, all-fields contact even when he mis-hits balls. This is a risky corner bat, but Canario has potential middle-of-the-order talent because of the raw power and a good chance to get to it in games because his swing has natural lift. There’s huge ceiling if the hit/approach component improves.I've been liking Canario since his good first pro season in the DSL, and am not surprised to see him rise to be one of our top prospects. He did have a hiccup of a season in rookie ball in 2018, but his first time in Short Season A-ball, Salem-Keizer, was eye-opening for the rankers, clearly.
At Salem-Keizer, he was second in HR (to Franklin Labour, another Giants prospect; Ricardo Genoves, profiled down below, was tied for 7th, in spite of playing only 32 of 76 possible games, where Alexander played 49, and Franklin 41) and that got him 4th in SLG and 8th in OPS. He was also 15th in batting average, in spite of his bad rate of strikeouts.
His strikeout rate was horrendous, over 35% and nearly 40%, but as the two commentaries above noted, he has ridiculous bat speed (there goes that term again), combined with ridiculous power, making him, apparently, by my deduction, a great bad ball hitter, since he makes "all-fields contact even when he mis-hits balls". Those hitters (like Pablo Sandoval) can adjust quickly to pitches, plus drive pitchers crazy, not knowing which pitch they can use to get him out. These hitters also frustrates fans when they swing and miss on pitches way out of the strike zone. Sometimes it giveths, sometimes it taketh away.
The Giants have a number of interesting OF prospects and presumably some three out of this bunch will be the OF for much of the 2020's. Ramos certainly looks like he'll be the CF first, but then moves over to RF when another proves worthy of CF, maybe Bishop or Matos. Canario certainly looks capable of being one, but he has a long way to go before making it to the majors, plus strikes out a lot, and he has competition in others: Matos (also ranked 5th by a ranker), Pomares, Duggar, Davis, McCarthy, Slater, Shaw, among others. Even Dubon could end up with a spot, depending on things fall, maybe he figures out hitting for power but someone proves to be a starting 2B.
My hopes for Canario is that he becomes a power hitting RF, who can play CF when needed, as the Giants seem focused on getting players who can play all three OF positions, many of their OF prospects are CF capable. And every lineup can use a bad-ball wild swinging but good hitter to annoy the heck out of opposing pitchers.
Seth Corry
Seth was ranked in all of the six above Top Giants Prospects lists:
- Baseball America: #7
- MLB Pipeline: #5
- Baseball Prospectus: #8
- Fangraphs: #12
- TA: Keith Law: #6
- MiLBA: #7
That averages out to 7.5, with a high of #5 and a low of 12, median of 7.
MiLBA concurs with other projections that he is a potential #3 starter. They also noted:
Fangraphs profile of Corry (bold mine):
Law is much more positive, which I noted in the Top 100 post (he ranked Corry #6), but I'm including here to bold other points he made :
I lean more towards Law's description as to "a fairly high ceiling" than to FG's multi-inning reliever, because he's striking out batters to a high degree, while not walking many, at least in the second half. I wish I knew stats enough to say statistically when a change is big enough to be significant, but he went from 7.1 BB/9 in first 12 starts to 2.5 BB/9 in last 15 starts, so I'm pretty sure that's statistically significant. As I noted in the Top 100 post, those numbers are similar to when Jonathan Sanchez did great down in A-ball, then rose the next season to the majors.
My hope for the near future regarding the Giants starting rotation is that Corry and Webb are the two top starters atop the rotation, perhaps with Beede or Hjelle in the middle, then if there is a top SP free agent out there, get him, but if Cueto does well in returning from TJS, maybe he'll take that role (or we trade for Bumgarner?). Then the 5th starter role can be taken by any of the variety of pitching prospects the Giants have in the system, or perhaps a SP free agent (a la Pomeranz, Gausman, Smyly) who Zaidi wants to take on and flip mid-season to keep the flow of interesting prospects coming into the system (that's one area the Sabean-led era never capitalized on, except sporadically, like Eduardo Nunez trade, that got us Shaun Anderson and Gregory Santos).
MiLBA concurs with other projections that he is a potential #3 starter. They also noted:
Consistent, durable SP led SAL in ERA and K in first full season. Saw big spike in K rate as he became more consistent with delivery and arm slot. Induces high amount of weak contact with groundballs and has plus CB that he gets hitters to chase. Changes shape and velocity to add to effectiveness. FG is good, not great, and offers running action.Their scouts had his fastball sitting 91-94, curveball 76-81, and changeup (which they also see as average) 82-86. So he has pretty good separation in velocity between his fastball and breaking pitches, which bodes well for success up the farm system.
Fangraphs profile of Corry (bold mine):
Corry was a pretty raw fastball/curveball high school prospect whose changeup improved throughout the last two seasons, which is especially relevant because that pitch’s movement pairs better with his fastball than the curve. Armed with that change, he dominated Low-A, striking out 172 hitters in 122 innings. He’s a fairly stiff, short strider and often has scattershot fastball control — he walked a batter every other inning last year — so there’s significant relief risk here. We’re not inclined to project on Corry’s control enough to consider him a starter, but we like him as a bat-missing, multi-inning reliever who ends up throwing 90 or so innings.Obviously, Fangraphs is down on Corry's potential, seeing him more as part of the new bullpen options, the multi-inning reliever, mainly because of his poor walks rate, but they seem to have ignored how he changed completely in the middle of the season, walking a lot less, as I noted in the Top 100 post.
Law is much more positive, which I noted in the Top 100 post (he ranked Corry #6), but I'm including here to bold other points he made :
Corry finished 2019 with 172 strikeouts, ranking fourth in all of minor league baseball; he was the youngest pitcher in the top 25 in that category. His delivery had been tough to repeat when he first signed but the Giants have worked on making it smoother. It seemed to show up in the second half of 2019; Corry made 27 starts on the year, and in his last 13 he walked just 18 guys in 68 2/3 innings and posted a 1.18 ERA. His changeup has improved, although he’s still mostly working with his plus fastball and plus curveball; the progress here points to a fairly high ceiling as long as the command and control he showed in the second half holds up.Unlike MiLBA, he considers Corry's fastball to be plus. And he finished 4th in all of the minors in strikeouts, although he was the youngest of the top 25 finishers, which is pretty good differentiation, and speaks to his eliteness in striking out hitters.
I lean more towards Law's description as to "a fairly high ceiling" than to FG's multi-inning reliever, because he's striking out batters to a high degree, while not walking many, at least in the second half. I wish I knew stats enough to say statistically when a change is big enough to be significant, but he went from 7.1 BB/9 in first 12 starts to 2.5 BB/9 in last 15 starts, so I'm pretty sure that's statistically significant. As I noted in the Top 100 post, those numbers are similar to when Jonathan Sanchez did great down in A-ball, then rose the next season to the majors.
My hope for the near future regarding the Giants starting rotation is that Corry and Webb are the two top starters atop the rotation, perhaps with Beede or Hjelle in the middle, then if there is a top SP free agent out there, get him, but if Cueto does well in returning from TJS, maybe he'll take that role (or we trade for Bumgarner?). Then the 5th starter role can be taken by any of the variety of pitching prospects the Giants have in the system, or perhaps a SP free agent (a la Pomeranz, Gausman, Smyly) who Zaidi wants to take on and flip mid-season to keep the flow of interesting prospects coming into the system (that's one area the Sabean-led era never capitalized on, except sporadically, like Eduardo Nunez trade, that got us Shaun Anderson and Gregory Santos).
Mauricio Dubon
Mauricio was ranked in all of the six above Top Giants Prospects lists:
Luis ToribioMauricio was ranked in all of the six above Top Giants Prospects lists:
- Baseball America: #10
- MLB Pipeline: #11
- Baseball Prospectus: #7
- Fangraphs: #10
- TA: Keith Law: #11
- MiLBA: #6
That averages out to 9.2, with a high of #6 and a low of 11, median of 10.
Fangraphs profile (bold is mine):
Sean Hjelle
Sean was ranked in all of the six above Top Giants Prospects lists:
Fangraphs profile (bold is mine):
Most of Dubon’s role is tied to his ability to make contact, a skill derived from strong hand-eye coordination and bat control. His formerly slender, willowy frame has filled out some, and in 2018 Dubon stopped scrubbing his leg kick with two strikes, but he’s still not getting much out of his lower half and his contact quality is entirely dependent on barrel accuracy, which will limit him to doubles power. Defensively, Dubon is passable at shortstop and second base. Ideally, in a reserve role, he’d be able to play center field as well, but aside from the five games he played there in 2016, he’s only ever played the middle infield. His home-to-first times were down a bit last year coming off the ACL injury, so either the top-end speed he once had (we’ve had a 6 on Dubon’s wheels each of the last several years, until now) will return, or he’ll need to show immediate feel for center for him to see big league reps there. We have him in as a contact-oriented utility player.MLB Pipeline's profile:
Dubon's excellent hand-eye coordination allows him to make consistent contact from the right side of the plate, and he has hit for average throughout his pro career. He tripled his previous career high with 24 homers in 2019, the product of looking for spots to drive the ball in the air more frequently to his pull side and also perhaps the souped-up baseballs in Triple-A and the big leagues. After tearing the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee in 2018, he was a half-step slower and wasn't as aggressive on the bases last year, though he still has solid speed.
Dubon's fast hands are an asset offensively and defensively. He has spent most of his time in pro ball at shortstop, displaying quick feet and solid arm strength. He's an average defender at short, better than that at second base and also has seen action at third base and center field.Law noted (bold is mine):
He’s a quality utility infielder right now with an outside shot to end up a regular at second base because he makes so much contact and plays solid defense there; at shortstop he’s more of an emergency glove.Overall, seems like he's one of those classic tweeners right now: defense okay enough to play middle infield and CF, plus perhaps the corners as well, without the bat to force the issue to become a starter. The key for him to force the issue revolves around two areas that he might improve upon: speed and power. His ACL injury slowed him down a lot, but if he can regain his plus speed, that should improve his ability to run out more hits, and play better quality defense in CF. Per the Fangraphs comments, it looks like he could use some coaching to use his legs more in his swing, in order to hit for more power. If he can do both of those, he could become the super-utility player the Giants have been trying to have since they signed Mark DeRosa, having pursued acquiring Ben Zobrist over the years as well.
Sean Hjelle
Sean was ranked in all of the six above Top Giants Prospects lists:
- Baseball America: #9
- MLB Pipeline: #9
- Baseball Prospectus: #9
- Fangraphs: #14
- TA: Keith Law: #7
- MiLBA: #8
That averages out to 9.3, with a high of #7 and a low of 14, and median of 9.
Law has him ranked the highest (bold is mine):
Law has him ranked the highest (bold is mine):
Hjelle is 6-foot-11, and would at least tie Jon Rauch as the tallest players in major league history. (Both went to college in Kentucky.) Hjelle has seen his velocity creep up since the Giants took him in the second round in 2018, touching 97 last year and sitting 92-93, with good sink from a high release point and natural extension out front just as a result of his height. He doesn’t have a clear swing-and-miss pitch but throws all four offerings for strikes. He did struggle badly after an August promotion to Double A, throwing fewer strikes and giving up a lot of hard, line-drive contact, the one down note after a solid full-season debut. I think he’s a fourth starter in the end but his height is such an unusual advantage that he could turn into something more.MiLBA. also liked him, forecasting him as a future #3 starter (bold is mine):
Very tall SP with breakout campaign. Not a flamethrower, but uses height and extension to make FB appear quicker. Spots in lower half of zone for extreme groundball rate. Repeats delivery that enhances two breaking balls. Uses sweeping SL often and can use as chase pitch. CU lags behind other three, but has chance to be plus. Exhibits plus control.Fangraphs profile (bold is mine):
Hjelle body comps to a young Pau Gasol and he’s remarkably athletic for his size. His delivery is graceful and fluid, and he has no trouble repeating it nor fielding his position, as he’s quick off the mound to corral bunts and cover first base, both of which can be challenging for XXL pitchers. Hjelle’s (it’s pronounced like peanut butter and _____ ) fastball only sits in the low-90s but plays up because of extension, life, and the angle created by his height. Those traits in concert with one another make for a heater that competes for whiffs in the zone. The secondaries are closer to average, often below, though Hjelle can locate them. He’s a pretty safe No. 4/5 starter candidate, though we might be underrating how uncomfortable he is to hit against.Seems to be #4 type starter, but with the potential to be a #3 depending on how much he can utilize his extra height to make MLB batters uncomfortable. I've seen him in a video, and he's skinny as heck, almost like watching a human preying mantis. I think that he can still add some bulk to his build, and add more velocity, just because I don't see how he doesn't add more weight to his frame (although, none of these profiles noted this as a possibility) as he gets older and eats food more regularly in the majors, and I look to Law's description, which noted that his velocity creeped up to a high of 97, as evidence of such a possibility. And wouldn't it be fun to be able to say that we have Hjelle in the middle of the rotation?
Luis was ranked in five of the six above Top Giants Prospects lists (BP did not rank):
- Baseball America: #6
- MLB Pipeline: #7
- Baseball Prospectus: unranked
- Fangraphs: #8
- TA: Keith Law: #8
- MiLBA: #10
That averages out to 9.0, with a high of #6 and a low of 10.
The Giants haven't had many interesting 3B prospects over the years, so Toribio is that rare beast us fans hardly ever see (nobody since Sandoval, really, and he came up the farm system as a catcher).
Here's what MLB Pipeline had for his profile (bold mine):
The Giants haven't had many interesting 3B prospects over the years, so Toribio is that rare beast us fans hardly ever see (nobody since Sandoval, really, and he came up the farm system as a catcher).
Here's what MLB Pipeline had for his profile (bold mine):
In the international penalty box for the second straight year after paying Bahamian shortstop Lucius Fox $6 million in 2015, San Francisco went to its $300,000 max bonus for seven players in 2017, the best of whom is Toribio. The Dominican ranked third in the Rookie-level Dominican Summer League with 10 homers in his first season as a pro, then posted an .887 OPS in his U.S. debut last year. He easily led the Rookie-level Arizona League with 45 walks in 51 games before getting promoted for the short-season Northwest League playoffs.
Toribio might be the best pure hitter in the system and his exit velocity ranks with the best as well. He has a vicious left-handed swing but makes consistent contact because he has such good feel for the barrel, and he already uses the entire field well for a youngster. After he pulled all 10 of his homers in 2018, all he hit his last year went to the opposite field, and he could have 20-25 homer power if he turns on more pitches and adds a bit of loft to his stroke.
Presently a below-average runner, Toribio will have to watch his frame because losing a half-step likely would mean he'd have to move from third base. His plus arm fits at the hot corner, but scouts outside the organization question his range and think there's a good chance he'll have to move to first base. The Giants believe he can remain at third and once toyed with the idea of trying him at second base.Fangraphs like Toribio over Canario, ranking him higher:
More than any of the other teenagers on this list, Toribio is a fully formed physical entity, a brawny, heavy-footed thumper who looks like Aramis Ramirez did in his prime. That sort of physicality at this age creates risk that he’ll outgrow third base, and it’s very likely that, even if he stays there, he’ll only be passable at the position.
Toribio’s power and feel to hit — he has some head violence when he takes big cuts, but still generates a loud, heavy thwack when his swing is more controlled and precise — means he might profile at first base should he have to move. We don’t expect much more raw power to come because he is already so physically mature. We’re going to monitor his platoon splits over the next year because, to the eye, he’s much less adept at picking up lefty stuff, perhaps concerningly so, but there’s not nearly enough data to support that yet. If he stays at third and the bat-to-ball skills hold, he could be an above-average regular. The low-end of the potential outcomes is a platoon first baseman.MiLBA had a nice observation about his bat: Demonstrates proficiency with pitch recognition and advanced feel for zone. Tie that in with having a good feel with the barrel and using the entire field, you got yourself a good hitter. Add in power, and he could be a good starting 1B or 3B, though probably taking a bit of a hit on defense. Of course, he's a long way from the show, having only played a little with Salem-Keizer in 2019, and only 19 YO for the 2020 season.
Will Wilson
Will was ranked in five of the six above Top Giants Prospects lists (BA did not rank):
Will was ranked in five of the six above Top Giants Prospects lists (BA did not rank):
- Baseball America: unranked
- MLB Pipeline: #10
- Baseball Prospectus: #5
- Fangraphs: #7
- TA: Keith Law: #10
- MiLBA: #12
That averages out to 9.8, with a high of #5 and a low of 12 among the ranks, plus one unranked.
Don't know much about this guy, since he was with the Angels before. Here is what Pipeline said about him:
Fangraphs description of him echos my thoughts (bold is mine):
Luis Matos
Luis was ranked in four of the six above Top Giants Prospects lists (BP and MiLBA did not rank):
Logan was ranked (assume BA ranked him) in five of the six above Top Giants Prospects lists:
Seth was ranked in all of the six above Top Giants Prospects lists:
Ricardo was ranked by Keith Law as #18, Fangraphs as #21, and MLB Pipeline as #26.
I've liked him for a while now. Part of my philosophy on minor league prospects is looking for hitters who can control their bat well from the lowest levels (that is, has a okay contact rate, 80% and higher, especially over 85%), and especially those with good command of their bat (that is, has a good walk/strikeout ratio of 0.5 and higher, especially over 1.0), and Ricardo caught my eye in his first pro season, with 22 walks vs. 34 strikeouts in 207 AB (84% contact rate, 0.6 BB/K ratio), albeit in DSL, where I'm not as familiar with how stats works from there. Still, against his peers (he waas 1.2 yearrs younger than average), he was okay.
Since then, he has played state-side, and wasn't as good as DSL, but not bad either. In 2017, in Rookie League, he hit .682 OPS with 79% contact rate and 0.43 BB/K, while 1.8 years younger. In 2018, with Salem-Keizer, he hit .639 OPS with 78% contact rate and 0.36 BB/K, while 2.1 years younger. In 2019, first with Salem-Keizer, he hit .803 OPS with 82% contact rate and 0.46 BB/K, while 0.8 years younger (was still tied for 7th in HR, in spite of having the second least AB, 131, out of the top 19 in homers), then was promoted to Augusta, where he hit .807 OPS with 74% contact rate and 0.35 BB/K, while 1.5 years younger.
He hit well in Augusta vs. the League:
Don't know much about this guy, since he was with the Angels before. Here is what Pipeline said about him:
Wilson hit 39 homers in three seasons at North Carolina State and had the most usable power among the five college shortstops selected in 2019's first round. The Giants considered him with the No. 10 overall pick before opting for Hunter Bishop, and Wilson signed for $3,397,5000 at No. 15 with the Angels. In a salary dump at the Winter Meetings, Los Angeles surprisingly included him to shed Zack Cozart and acquire lefty pitching prospect Garrett Williams from San Francisco.
Solidly built if not physically imposing, Wilson creates at least solid raw power from the right side of the plate with his bat speed and strength. With his aggressive approach and a knack for barreling the ball, he projects as a 20-homer middle infielder. He controlled the strike zone well in college but didn't show the same discipline in a so-so pro debut.
Wilson's power-over-speed profile would be unusual for a big league shortstop and he's likely to wind up at second base. Some scouts think his quick actions and hands may allow him to remain at shortstop, while others believe his below-average speed and average arm give him little chance. He spent time at both positions during his first taste of pro ball.I noticed his so-so stats as a pro, so I wasn't impressed, and the reports I've seen echo what's said above, that he's likely a tweener type of prospect, where he's not likely to stick at SS, Seems like an expensive acquisition for a prospect.
Fangraphs description of him echos my thoughts (bold is mine):
Wilson was an Angel for half a year before he was tethered to Zack Cozart’s contract and traded to the Giants, a prospect burp to make budgetary room at the big league level. Wilson was not a traditional first round talent based on visual evalauations. He’s a relatively projectionless, medium-framed infielder without a clear plus tool, and he lacked the strikeout-to-walk ratios first round collegiate players usually exhibit. But, his hands work great in the box, his swing is as compact as his frame (making it possible for him to get on top of high fastballs), he tracks breaking balls very well, and he was very young for a college player, still just 20 on draft day. Some scouts on the amateur side wanted him to catch in pro ball and thought he had the toughness to do it. Others think he’ll be a fine 2B or 3B defender with a balanced, stable offensive profile. There is very likely limited ceiling here, probably something close to an average regular, but Wilson is also a fairly high probability contributor because of his bat-to-ball skills and defensive profile.I think that last statement captures why the Giants got him, he's not a high ceiling guy, which most teams want, but he's a high floor guy who probably contributes at the major league level, and that's what Zaidi has been searching far and wide for, baseball talent that moves the needle for the Giants to the win column more and more. He'll be part of Zaidi's menagerie of middle infielders who can play multiple positions well enough to create a lot of options for the manager. Who knows, maybe the Giants follow up on the scouts and make him a utility player capable of being the backup catcher.
Luis Matos
Luis was ranked in four of the six above Top Giants Prospects lists (BP and MiLBA did not rank):
- Baseball America: #8
- MLB Pipeline: #8
- Baseball Prospectus: unranked
- Fangraphs: #5
- TA: Keith Law: #9
- MiLBA: unranked
That averages out to 7.5, with a high of #5 and a low of 12.
Here's MiLBA profile on Matos (sees him as future starting CF, though only average/solid in all skills, hitting, power, speed, defense, probably why they didn't rank him):
Logan WebbHere's MiLBA profile on Matos (sees him as future starting CF, though only average/solid in all skills, hitting, power, speed, defense, probably why they didn't rank him):
Quick, athletic OF who impressed in all facets of game in pro debut. Exhibits contact-oriented approach with electric bat speed and strike zone knowledge. Should grow into more power as he adds strength to lithe frame. Runs very well and plays solid defense in CF. Arm strength sufficient for any outfield spot.Fangraphs had this to say:
International Director Joe Salermo and his staff have an eye for bat speed, as Matos is one of several youngsters with lightning-fast wood. He was a DSL All-Star before coming stateside for the homestretch of the AZL, and the Orange Giants dropped him right in the top of their playoff lineup. An outfield collision soon ended his season, though he left the field under his own power holding a towel to his face.
Matos isn’t a huge-framed outfielder but he projects for plus raw power at peak anyway, because of his ability to rotate. He also has plus speed and he was selectively aggressive during his brief AZL trial, taking big hacks in hitters counts rather than all the time. It’s possible he has underlying issues (breaking ball recognition, expansive approach, any number of things) that we just don’t know about yet because rookie-level pitching isn’t capable of shedding light on them. But just on tools, Matos belongs in the same general area as most of the top high schoolers from the 2019 draft, which puts him a shade beneath the tier of prospect who’ll be on our top 100 list this offseason.One of a handful to be ranked 5th in the system, plus Fangraphs was close to having him on their Top 100, so there's some good potential in him, but still a lot of risk. He has a lot of tools, which is what is getting him attention, as well as good bat speed (that phrase again). Another good sign: selectively aggressive. If Bishop isn't the future CF, then perhaps Matos is, though a long way to find out, as he's only 18 YO for the 2020 season, and haven't played a full-season minor league team yet. And as FG noted, underlying issues could bring him down ultimately. Still, a nice shining diamond in the rough.
Logan was ranked (assume BA ranked him) in five of the six above Top Giants Prospects lists:
- Baseball America: (I'll report when I get it)
- MLB Pipeline: #12
- Baseball Prospectus: unranked (probably just missed)
- Fangraphs: #6
- TA: Keith Law: #12
- MiLBA: #5
That averages out to 10.0, with a high of #5 (MiLBA) and a low of 12, plus unranked by BP and BA probably has him ranked but I have not received the book.
Fangraphs noted (bold mine):
So I'm more positive than the rankers on Logan. He's only 22 YO, and still easily struck out major league hitters while not walking them much either, only giving up too much runs, but even there, it was some bad luck, as his FIP was good. Fangraphs also mentioned a loss of velocity, so if he can regain that velocity (some pitchers need more time to regain lost velocity after TJS), he should only be better in the majors going forward. So I'm thinking more like a #2 starter, once he builds up his arm for a full season of innings: his max so far is 104.2 innings in 2018, as his suspension for PED usage (strongly denies ever using) cost him a huge chunk of 2019, so he only got 63 innings in.
Of course, I'm only spitballing here, because we don't know what the MLB will do about the season, but assuming they want to play all 162 games still, Webb could fit in as a fifth starter/long reliever for the first month or so, before the team needs a 5th starter (schedule usually light in first month, would think MLB would want to keep that aspect) in second month. That's roughly 27 starts for 5th starter, or roughly 135 IP, if they keep him on a relatively tight leash to average 5 IP per start, which is roughly what he averaged last season.
If they stick to the rule of thumb of not jumping more than 25 IP of usage, over his max, that limits him to 130 IP. Then again, the Giants have never let that rule of thumb get in the way, as Cain, Lincecum, and Bumgarner (as well as others) have all jumped up more than that when they reached the majors. But maybe they'll take it easier on Webb, since he's had TJS, so we'll see.
Jaylin DavisFangraphs noted (bold mine):
Webb’s career has been Chutes and Ladders for the last several years. He had Tommy John midway through 2016, and the little bit of 2017 for which he was healthy he spent in a strictly-regimented relief role. Finally back in a rotation the following year, Webb blew up. He was holding 92-95 deep into starts, topping out at 97, and spinning in a dastardly slider. Unrefined fastball control indicated relief risk at the time, but the injury and timing of Webb’s surgery robbed him of reps, so it was fair to project slightly better control.
Early in 2019, Webb was popped for PEDs and suspended for 80 games. Upon return, the fastball was down, more 91-94, and it settled there throughout 2019. But Webb’s changeup has improved and a clearly demarcated two-seamer will help it play. The command piece is still not always there, particularly early in games, but at other times Webb has arm-side feel for the change, glove-side feel for his slider, and and he’ll show east/west command of the heater. It’s No. 4/5 stuff, shaded on either side of the slash depending on how the command and changeup progress.MLB Pipeline profile (bold mine):
A star quarterback at Rocklin (Calif.) High, Webb realized his future was as a pitcher when his fastball climbed into the mid-90s in the spring of 2014. Signed for an above-slot $600,000 as a fourth-rounder that June, he has missed time with Tommy John surgery that cost him most of 2016 and 2017 and an 80-game suspension for PEDs last May. None of that stopped him from making his big league debut last August, during which he allowed two runs or less in half of his eight starts.
After sitting at 93-96 mph and peaking at 98 with heavy life on his fastball in 2018, Webb operated around 93 mph with his four-seamer and complemented it with a two-seamer than parked around 91. His power breaking ball is a plus offering that was his best weapon in the Majors, combining slider velocity at 82-85 mph and curveball depth. He made progress with his sinking changeup last year, giving him an effective third pitch.
Outside of needing some time to regain his control following his elbow reconstruction, Webb has done a nice job of translating his athleticism into strikes throughout his career. The next step will be to upgrade his command, because big leaguers punished his fastball when he didn't locate it well. How he fares in 2020 could go a long way to determining whether he reaches his ceiling as a No. 3 starter or goes down a path to becoming a late-inning reliever.Lastly, MiLBA is the most positive about Webb (which makes sense since he's highest ranked there; still, only sees him as a #3 starter; bold is mine:
Big SP who reached SF on basis of heavy FB among best in org despite average velocity. Pitches off FB with precision to any area of zone. Induces weak contact and can get K's with FB. Wipeout SL is 2nd plus pitch. Has fast arm action that makes it play up and features lethal break. Good separation between FB and CU. Injury history to keep an eye on.The positives I would point out are the following. First of all, he was only 22 YO last season, made it to AA (only the best 22 YO makes it there). And, second, while he didn't do great there (4.57 ERA vs. EL average 3.53 ERA), his FIP there was 2.43, as he had a great 10.2 K/9, good 2.6 BB/9, and great K/BB of 3.92. Third, in his MLB debut, while his ERA was 5.22, his FIP is a pretty good 4.12 (NL FIP of 4.43, ERA of 4.38). That's because he (although only 22 YO) had a good 8.4 K/9, okay 3.2 BB/9, and okay 2.64 K/BB. And again, he did all of this at age 22.
So I'm more positive than the rankers on Logan. He's only 22 YO, and still easily struck out major league hitters while not walking them much either, only giving up too much runs, but even there, it was some bad luck, as his FIP was good. Fangraphs also mentioned a loss of velocity, so if he can regain that velocity (some pitchers need more time to regain lost velocity after TJS), he should only be better in the majors going forward. So I'm thinking more like a #2 starter, once he builds up his arm for a full season of innings: his max so far is 104.2 innings in 2018, as his suspension for PED usage (strongly denies ever using) cost him a huge chunk of 2019, so he only got 63 innings in.
Of course, I'm only spitballing here, because we don't know what the MLB will do about the season, but assuming they want to play all 162 games still, Webb could fit in as a fifth starter/long reliever for the first month or so, before the team needs a 5th starter (schedule usually light in first month, would think MLB would want to keep that aspect) in second month. That's roughly 27 starts for 5th starter, or roughly 135 IP, if they keep him on a relatively tight leash to average 5 IP per start, which is roughly what he averaged last season.
If they stick to the rule of thumb of not jumping more than 25 IP of usage, over his max, that limits him to 130 IP. Then again, the Giants have never let that rule of thumb get in the way, as Cain, Lincecum, and Bumgarner (as well as others) have all jumped up more than that when they reached the majors. But maybe they'll take it easier on Webb, since he's had TJS, so we'll see.
Seth was ranked in all of the six above Top Giants Prospects lists:
- Baseball America: #7
- MLB Pipeline: #13
- Baseball Prospectus: #8
- Fangraphs: #11
- TA: Keith Law: unranked
- MiLBA: #7
That averages out to 7.5, with a high of #5 and a low of 12.
Fangraphs had a short paragraph on Davis:
Altogether, he looks like one of those AAAA tweeners who shows off a lot in AAA but struggles in the majors. This explains why the Twins gave him up. But he has the raw tools that if the Giants expanded player development coaching can help unlock, especially his plus power, that emerged last seasonn, and get it into MLB games, he would be quite the found money. Especially if he can also play CF as well. So it was worth the risk, from Zaidi's view, but don't be surprised if he doesn't turn out. And his spring training, before it got cancelled, echos how poorly he did in the majors last season.
OTHERS WHO I'M HIGHLIGHTING
Ricardo GenovesFangraphs had a short paragraph on Davis:
Davis began incorporating an open stance and bigger leg kick into his swing during the 2018 Arizona Fall League. That adjustment helped him improve his timing at the plate and create a bigger move forward, unlocking previously dormant power. He still has a bottom-hand heavy swing and flat bat path, and thus is unlikely to reach all that the power, but he might be a low-end regular anyway.MLB Pipeline was more expansive and interesting:
Davis homered off Carlos Rodon on the first pitch he saw in college and took him deep again as a sophomore, positioning himself as a potential top-five-rounds pick as an Appalachian State junior in 2015. But he tore the labrum in his right (throwing) shoulder early that spring, ending his season and dropping him all the way to the 24th round and the Twins, who signed him for $50,000. He didn't make his pro debut until 2016 and didn't break out until 2019, when he slammed 36 homers -- 10 in 27 Triple-A games and his first big league blast after the Giants acquired him as part of the Sam Dyson trade in July.
Davis' tool profile and his statistical profile are somewhat at odds. He's very strong and generates at least plus raw power and impressive exit velocities from the right side of the plate, but he doesn't drive the ball in the air consistently and had the fourth-highest ground-ball rate (51 percent) of any Minor Leaguer with 20 or more homers in 2019. He displayed elite sprint speed during his September callup, but he plays closer to average on the bases and in the field, stealing just 34 bases in his first 452 pro games.
That dichotomy won't matter if Davis' power continues to play like it did a year ago. To establish himself in the Majors, he'll need to continue to build on the progress he made with his plate discipline last season. He plays all three outfield positions but has spent the vast majority of his time in right field, where his pop and solid arm fit the profile.I wasn't too excited when we got him: Giants history is long with power hitting AAA gods who come to the majors and fizzle out. And MiLBA concurs, only sees him as a future reserve OF, noting his struggles making contact, as well as mechanical issues that saps his power hitting.
Altogether, he looks like one of those AAAA tweeners who shows off a lot in AAA but struggles in the majors. This explains why the Twins gave him up. But he has the raw tools that if the Giants expanded player development coaching can help unlock, especially his plus power, that emerged last seasonn, and get it into MLB games, he would be quite the found money. Especially if he can also play CF as well. So it was worth the risk, from Zaidi's view, but don't be surprised if he doesn't turn out. And his spring training, before it got cancelled, echos how poorly he did in the majors last season.
OTHERS WHO I'M HIGHLIGHTING
Ricardo was ranked by Keith Law as #18, Fangraphs as #21, and MLB Pipeline as #26.
I've liked him for a while now. Part of my philosophy on minor league prospects is looking for hitters who can control their bat well from the lowest levels (that is, has a okay contact rate, 80% and higher, especially over 85%), and especially those with good command of their bat (that is, has a good walk/strikeout ratio of 0.5 and higher, especially over 1.0), and Ricardo caught my eye in his first pro season, with 22 walks vs. 34 strikeouts in 207 AB (84% contact rate, 0.6 BB/K ratio), albeit in DSL, where I'm not as familiar with how stats works from there. Still, against his peers (he waas 1.2 yearrs younger than average), he was okay.
Since then, he has played state-side, and wasn't as good as DSL, but not bad either. In 2017, in Rookie League, he hit .682 OPS with 79% contact rate and 0.43 BB/K, while 1.8 years younger. In 2018, with Salem-Keizer, he hit .639 OPS with 78% contact rate and 0.36 BB/K, while 2.1 years younger. In 2019, first with Salem-Keizer, he hit .803 OPS with 82% contact rate and 0.46 BB/K, while 0.8 years younger (was still tied for 7th in HR, in spite of having the second least AB, 131, out of the top 19 in homers), then was promoted to Augusta, where he hit .807 OPS with 74% contact rate and 0.35 BB/K, while 1.5 years younger.
He hit well in Augusta vs. the League:
- Genoves: .292/.361/.446/.807, with 154 ISO
- Sally: .239/.316/.362/.677, with 123 ISO
And my focus on his hitting is because his defense and maturity has been high from the get go. Here is some commentary from MLB Pipeline:
His defense was more advanced than his bat when he entered pro ball, but his offense started to catch up in 2019. After producing four homers and a .664 OPS in 148 games during his first three seasons, he went deep nine times with an .804 OPS in 51 contests last summer, reaching low Class A in August.
Genoves possesses a strong, accurate arm and threw out 40 percent of basestealers last year. Catching for Padres prospect Anderson Espinoza as an amateur prepared him for handling quality stuff in pro ball. He moves well behind the plate and shows signs of becoming a solid receiver, though he must improve his consistency.
After employing a contact-oriented but pull-heavy approach earlier in his career, Genoves displayed previously unseen opposite-field power in 2019. He has added some loft to his right-handed swing and is driving the ball more regularly to all fields, showing 15-homer upside. He probably won't hit for average unless he tightens up his strike zone, but he should provide enough offense to profile as a useful backup.As Minor League Baseball Analyst noted in their profile, if he learns to hit, he could be a good one. But right now, the hitting needs to develop further, although I feel that there are enough signs of good judgement with the bat that I'm hopeful.
But the sad truth is that, as it is with the vast majority of prospects you hope for, mostly like Genoves is not going to work out. Once you get past the top 1, 2, 3 prospects in any system, the ones following all have some high level of risk of failure. Baseball player development is a high volume business.
Even the prospects who were listed on most of the rankings, they are not going to work out. There is a good chance that Heliot Ramos won't work out, sometimes the hitter can't solve MLB-caliber pitching, which they sporadically see in the lower minors. One has to get comfortable, over time, with the duality that as good as a prospect looks like, and you count on matriculating, sometimes they flame out, for whatever reasons.
Jairo Pomares
Jairo was ranked by Keith Law as #15, Fangraphs as #16, and MLB Pipeline as #14.
Here is what MLB Pipeline noted:
Giants signed Pomares ($975,000) in their best International class in 2018. A Cuban defector, he starred in the island's 15-and-under league and continued to impress with his hitting ability in San Francisco's instructional league and Dominican programs after signing. That merited a trip to the United States for his pro debut in 2019, when he ranked second in the Rookie-level Arizona League in hitting (.368) and earned a promotion to the short-season Northwest League a week after turning 19.
One of the best pure hitters in the system, Pomares is extremely advanced for a teenager. He recognizes pitches well and doesn't try to do too much with his quick left-handed stroke, showing tremendous feel for using the opposite field. He won't be a slugger, but he makes repeated hard contact and can drive the ball to his pull side, so he should get to most of his average raw power.
Pomares earns average to solid grades for his speed, arm and corner-outfield defense. The Giants will give him a chance to show what he can do in center field after he spent most of 2019 in right. He recorded 10 assists in 45 outfield starts during his first pro season.Here is what Fangraphs said:
Pomares’ nutty triple slash line in the AZL is a caricature of his true ability, especially the power, but we were still pretty surprised when we sourced his exit velo data and found it was already above big league average. Pomares only makes impact contact to his pull side but he does have the ability to slash balls the other way. He punishes pitchers who try to double up on breaking balls against him, and he has several other hitterish traits. He’s not a speedster and has more of a tweener defensive profile, so he probably needs more game power to profile in a corner. Our visual evaluation is fairly demure, but you can frame discussion around Pomares in such a way that he’s considered a polished hitter with sneaky juice who also has a shot to play center field, which sounds great.Overall, seems like Jairo is mostly an average athlete, with a good hit tool but average power and defense. That puts him in that tweener part of the spectrum that the Giants have seemed to corner the market in: guys who hit well enough if he's a CF, but his defense is only good enough for him to play in the corner OF, but his power is not enough for traditional corners (Randy Winn was a good example, Freddy Lewis another).
I think that is where most discussions about players go off the rails: oh, he doesn't have enough for that position, usually power but sometimes other traits. Focusing on the power ignores the rest of the roster and how it is built, as well as what extra that player provides above whatever he is lacking. Hopefully, your team has players who are above average for their position, which allows your team to have below average at other positions, but hopefully above average in other aspects, like OBP or defense. So he could be useful, just not good, as a player, and all teams need useful players (like Gregor Blanco) to fill out the roster of good players, relieving the grind of a 162-game season, in order to reach the playoffs.
Because no team can be above average at every position. No team can find that much talent nor buy that much talent. Like all businesses, they have to make compromises in the mix of resources and risks that they take, to produce their product (in baseball's case, their teams). Sometimes it seems like these complainers are just looking for something to complain about (and unfortunately, the media sometimes foments that type of thinking). But the truth is that every team has weaknesses at many (if not most) positions, you just hope your team can find enough strengths across the board so that they can compete to win.
Other Interesting Prospects
As I noted, once you get past the first few, the odds of any making it gets incredibly dicey, and once you get past 10-15, there's a whole lot of risk to go with the hope, as baseball prospecting is a volume business. Other names I'll be watching in 2020 (many profiled on MLB Pipeline and Fangraphs), include:
- Jake Wong
- Gregory Santos
- Logan Wyatt
- Melvin Adon
- Tristan Beck
- Prelander Berroa
- Blake Rivera
- Camilo Doval
- PJ Hilson
- Conor Cannon
- Kai-Wei Teng
- Franklin Labour
- Abdiel Layer
- Sean Roby
- Matt Frisbee
- Aeverson Arteaga
- Trevor McDonald
- Tyler Cyr
- Sandro Fabian
- Jalen Miller
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