Your 2020 Giants: Top 100 Prospects Lists

Many of the major Top 100 Prospects analysts have put out their rankings and I thought I would use this as an opportunity to post the rankings and talk about my thoughts about the Giants prospects ranked.

The rankings I'm utilizing are:

• Baseball America (subscription)
• MLB Pipeline
• Baseball Prospectus
• Fangraphs:  Eric Longenhagen
• ZiPS:  Dan Szymborski
• The Athletic:  Keith Law (subscription)
• The Athletic:  John Sickels (subscription)
• ESPN:  Kiley McDaniels

And not being ranked does not mean that there aren't other potentially good players in the farm system, these rankings are not the final word.  For example, Pablo Sandoval wasn't even ranked on the Giants Top 30, let alone Top 100 the season he reached the majors, and Brandon Crawford never made any Top 100 lists either.

On the other hand, being ranked isn't an automatic ticket for MLB stardom either:  Gary Brown was ranked #18 by Baseball Prospectus and #38 by Baseball America after the 2011 season.  Or how about Jesse Foppert, #5 overall per Baseball America after the 2003 season?  And Angel Villalona was ranked in the Top 100 three seasons in a row, hitting a peak of 33 (BA) and 29 (BP) for the 2008 season.

This is probably going to be in lieu of my usual Big Six prospect post I've been doing in the spring most seasons.  I'm not really up for a big research project, though maybe I'll just post a list and quick thoughts on some, sometime near Opening Day, if I feel up for it (sorry, just down right now, wife's aunt passed a couple of weeks ago, then lost out on a job that I thought I was very qualified for and was even told that coming in person interview would be the next step, before I got the decline e-mail 10 days later. Then I just got rear-ended the other day... and my insurance company hasn't bothered to call me, except once, since, it's basically two weeks since...).

ogc thoughts

Joey Bart

Joey was ranked in all eight Top 100 rankings (forgot which, maybe BP, has Top 101):

• Baseball America:  #32
• MLB Pipeline:  #14
• Baseball Prospectus:  #25
• Fangraphs:  #10
• ZiPS:  #32
• The Athletic:  Keith Law:  #44
• The Athletic:  John Sickels:  #23
• ESPN:  #7

That averages out to 23.4, with a high of 7 (ESPN) and a low of 44 (Keith Law).  Though, I should note for clarity, that McDaniels probably had a hand with the Fangraphs ranking, before he took over ESPN when Law took off for The Athletic (or at least influenced Longenhagen's thinking).  And hence, in my thinking, why the rankings are so similar.  

I expected him to be ranked highly, so it was disappointing to see the 30's and worse:  I was hoping most were in the Top 20, but only two were, and there's a strong possibility that one was strongly influenced by the other.  He's known for his defense and nothing I've seen contradicts that; in fact, while Posey was drafted as a Gold Glove potential catcher, I was disappointed to see all reports on things Buster needed to work on, whereas I don't remember hearing one word of negativity regarding Bart's defense.

Still, Bart isn't ranked as high as Posey was, as Buster was basically seen as a Top 10 overall prospect by BA and BP the two seasons he was on their lists.  Though Bart was ranked #7 by ESPN and #10 by Fangraphs.  Defense is a given for him, as MLB Pipeline commented that he now has Gold Glove upside, with his work as a pro showing how good he can become.

Power is also a given and highly valued by the rankers. McDaniel, who ranked him 7th, called Bart a "rare plus defender" and says he has "plus raw power and arm strength."  FG's Longenhagen noted:  "we think he’ll get to much or all of his power, play all-world defense, and be an All-Star catcher, a proper heir apparent to Buster Posey."  Law noted "Bart is a very good defensive catcher with power, a plus arm and a great reputation for working with pitchers."

The main problem is his hit tool.  His seasonal strikeout rate isn't the best, nor his walk rate, and so there is understandable worry about that.  I was not happy that he was outhit by Ramos in Advanced A, either.  The only positive I can provide here is that he had a really cold streak coming back from his time on the IL, hitting .205/.271/.455/.725 in his first 12 games back.  Before that, he hit .270/.341/.541/.882 and after that, before promotion to AA, he hit .281/.321/.471/.792.  But neither is all that good in the California League, certainly not elite, other than power (high ISO-P)

Then in AA, after a slow start, it all just clicked in for him.  In his first 11 games, he hit .189/.244/.351/.595, but then he hit .429/.478/.714/1.193 in his last 11 games.  He next continued that hot hitting in AFL, .333/.524/.767/1.290, against better competition (creme of roughly AA+ talent there) before he got hit by pitch again, breaking a finger again  (third break in last few seasons; second of this season, and it was the second HBP on his hands in that game).  He's going to need to figure out how to get out of the way of pitches while hitting, bad enough being a catcher and getting hit by foul balls.

Still, although small samples, Bart showed some growth late in 2019.  I tracked his contact rate, BB/K ratio, BABIP, and OPS by roughly month and/or league over his pro career, and his contact rate is a consistently okay but not great, mostly in the 70% range (80% is okay for power hitters; 85%+ is good for any hitter), which indicates his problem with hitting.  And his BABIP bounced around, up and down, as well, really bad sometimes, really good sometimes, which caused his OPS to jump around too.  Another indicator is his low BB/K ratio, mostly very low, 20-30's mostly.

But then during his hot streak in AA, he reached 67% and he jumped it further to elite range in the AFL, at 129% (good is above 50%, elite is above 100%).  And as I noted, in the AFL, he did that against better competition.  Although small samples, he was never that high in 10 game chunks, his high was 6 walks, and he had 9 in the AFL, and none of them were intentional walks.  That was probably his best 10 games as a grouping, as a pro.

Looking back at his history, in 10 game chunks, excluding the transition from one league to the next, there is a pattern to Bart's progression.  He has problems keeping his contact rate and BB/K ratio high as he acclimates to the new level, but by the end, he has his contact rate above 80% and his BB/K ratio above 50%.  And it's a combination of both striking out less and walking more.  Again, small samples, but thus far, it seems like he struggles initially, in some ways, but once he starts showing good progress in the eyes of the Giants scouts, he's promoted to the next level.

We'll see if he continues that type of progression of improvement as he rises. One evaluator did note that his struggles with the bat could have been bad habits with the bat because he got frustrated being pitched around in college.  That has some truth, in that his contact rate went down from his freshman year at 78% to 73% as sophomore, but then 75% as junior.  Plus, his BB/K rose from 24% to 32% to 73%.  So, if that is true, as college recedes and his pro career dominates, maybe he'll be more disciplined with his bat.  Between how he improved with time in college, and, thus far, has figured out each minor league level with a few months experience, a slow start is not necessarily bad.

He's also facing a tougher situation in SF having to follow Buster Posey.  Even if he were to have a Matt Weiter type of career, that would be a huge benefit for the Giants and great to have after Posey, but many will naturally compare him with Posey, his great predecessor.  You never know how that might affect a player's performance and mind set.  But he seems to be a leader (as many catchers seem to do), so I'm not too worried about this happening, but it's worth noting.

Overall, I think that he's going to be fine as Posey's replacement, whenever that may be.  If Posey's hitting does not improve much in 2020, Bart might be brought up mid-season to see what he can do, assuming he hits like he should in AAA, after his fine hitting late in AA and AFL (Posey seems to be looking better this spring, so I don't expect this to be a factor).  I expect him to start out in AAA, and once he proves he got that league licked, which could be as soon as mid-May, he'll be brought up to split the starting catcher duties with Posey, as well as pick off some starts at 1B vs. LHP away from Belt.  Especially if the Giants aren't that far away from a playoff spot, they might promote him once he's ready, then figure out how everyone shuffles to fit him in as a starting catcher.

He'll be more of a power hitter than Posey ever was, but probably less of a hitter: though, as I noted above, once he figures out a league, he's a pretty good hitter, so we'll see if he can approach Posey's standards or not, as his AFL was eye opening.  We'll also see how his defense ends up being, but he's supposed to be good, potentially Gold Glove good.  If he has low OBP but high SLG/ISO-P, then he'll be an ideal 3rd or 5th hitter.

Ideally, I see Posey and Bart sharing the catching and first base starts, so that both get almost a full season's worth of starts, but Posey will have to show that 2019 was a blip of a decline, and not the start of his decline.  However, if Posey 2019 is the new normal for him, Bart will be starting catcher once he shows he can kill AAA pitching.

Of course, this all assumes that Zaidi is as aggressive as he says he will be, and basically, be as aggressive as the Giants were, under Sabean, in bringing up Cain, Lincecum, Sanchez, Sandoval, Posey, Bumgarner, Belt, Crawford.  As I've been saying, he's not trying to put lipstick on this pig and try to be competitive, see if magic happens, like it did last summer.   He's preparing the lamb for slaughter, picking up players like Gausman and Smyly, and sure to be hawking Cueto and Samardzija, as well, and perhaps Yastrzemski, if he gets a good enough offer.

So why start the major league timer for Bart in a wasted season, unless you bring him up after early June, so that he won't qualify for super-two status (assuming the next CBA keeps that in there; players are angry and looking to fight, it seems).   Maybe Zaidi won't bring up Bart if Posey is hitting, even if Bart is killing the ball.  That will be interesting to watch to see what he does with Bart's promotion, as that would illustrate his decision making.

Where does Belt fit in?  I originally thought that he would be moved to LF (he was an OF in college, and early in his pro career).  But he's probably pushed out if both Posey and Bart are hitting, especially if he's not hitting well (that is, hitting like he did in 2019).  The Giants probably could trade him mid-season if they pay off most of his salary.

Although part of his issues in recent seasons in LF was his lack of running agility:  I just read an article on him slimming down to allow him to move more like he did when he was coming to the majors.  If he's more mobile, that would enable him to play LF to a better ability, and it's not like we have any LF who is a full-timer right now, only Yaz is a for sure starter, and where he plays will depend on who wins the starting positions, for if nobody asserts themselves in CF, he'll play there for sure.  Dickerson looks like he'll be platooning with Pence, probably in LF, but neither of them has been very healthy in recent seasons, either.  And Belt is the poster child for Kapler/Zaidi for how they want to see their hitters bat, so if he hits, he could theoretically move to LF once Bart is promoted, whereupon he and Buster are sharing starting duties at catcher and 1B.

A big reason Belt's numbers have declined in recent seasons is that he has been declining in hitting LHP.   Belt's hitting vs LHP took a dive the past three seasons, which hurt the lineup a lot if he's not being platooned.  That would help explain the decline in the offense since 2016.  Most probably Belt would then get the majority of RHP starts at 1B, and Posey will get some LHP starts if he's hitting, and then Bart will take over that role, which Posey had in his prime:  start as catcher for most RHP, but steal some starts (as well as rest his legs, relatively) at 1B vs. LHP, letting Posey be the backup catcher.  But if Posey is hitting and so is Belt, Brandon could then move to LF (at least on a platoon basis, but perhaps full-time depending on how he's hitting).

Lots of permutations depending on how much they regress to their career means or if they continue their declines.  I see this shared starting roles for Bart and Buster as most likely for 2021, Posey's last year of his contract, and if Bart's (or Posey's) hitting forces the issue, second half of 2020.   But if Belt's hitting too, that brings in LF too.  

Marco Luciano

Marco was ranked in all eight Top 100 rankings:

• Baseball America:  #19
• MLB Pipeline:  #35
• Baseball Prospectus:  #14
• Fangraphs:  #24
• ZiPS:  #31
• The Athletic:  Keith Law:  #58
• The Athletic:  John Sickels:  #73
• ESPN:  #18

That averages out to 34.0, with a high of 14 (Fangraphs) and a low of 73 (John Sickels).  Again, ESPN at 18 is close to Fangraphs, most probably due to McDaniels creating the ESPN ranking and having an influence in creating the Fangraphs ranking as well (he and Longenhagen produced the Giants 2020 Prospect Ranking for Fangraphs).

I was pleasantly surprised to see three rankings putting him in the Top 20 (and six of eight in top 35), which is usually reserved for guys who appear to be absolute sure things to do well in the majors, barring any hidden problems handling breaking pitches.  Especially the gold standard of rankings, Baseball America, as well as Baseball Prospectus, so it wasn't just McDaniels.  For comparison, Angel Villalona reached a high of #33 by BA after the 2007 season, after a ranking of #64 the season before.

MLB Pipeline had him at #35 and concluded:

"Though Luciano has a plus arm, a high baseball IQ and some quick-twitch athleticism, scouts are split on whether he'll be able to remain at shortstop. He's already a fringy runner and could slow down further as he adds strength, which could necessitate a move to third base or right field. His offensive prowess should make him a star at any position."

Also Law, who has him at #58 noted that he'll be a star:

"His combination of patience and early power is unusual for someone his age, and he has such an exciting frame, and a swing that should continue to produce hard contact. He may not move quickly like Wander Franco or Vlad Guerrero, Jr., but Luciano should be the Giants’ first homegrown Latin American star since Pablo Sandoval." 

Bold is my emphasis.  For reference, Vlad Jr. reached the majors at age 20 and Franco is the consensus #1 2020 prospect, and a year older; Luciano is in his 18 YO season in 2020.

I was also pleasantly surprised to see him ranked #31 by ZiPS.  Don't have a lot of experience with ZiPS prospect rankings, first I can recall seeing (looks like it's the first time published on Fangraphs,  he did it for ESPN previously), but I know that it's all based on numbers in a minor league relative to the age of that league, along with aging progression.  There is no subjective finger in the air by the analyst as to how to weigh things (other than how he sets up his algorithms), so it is all based on the numbers Luciano put up in the low minors at age 17.  In rookie league, against guys mostly 2-3 years older than him, he hit .322/.438/.616/1.055 with 27 walks vs. 39 strikeouts, okay 73% contact rate (given age difference), with 10 homers in 146 AB being the key stat here, but the 27 walks is pretty good too (compared to 39 K's).  

I was not surprised to see lower rankings though.  Sickels is well known to not rank prospects highly when there is little pro experience, and especially so for IFA prospects, as they tend to be younger.  I'm not experienced with Law, but it would be my guess he's being conservative too.  And I get that too, for as Law noted, most prospects flame out anyway, even highly ranked ones.  Law noted, "I want players who might be stars, and after that I want players who might be above-average big leaguers — but I also try to keep in mind that many of these prospects won’t reach their ceilings, and to consider what other scenarios exist for their futures."

Overall very happy to see that he's ranked Top 35 by six of the rankings, based on simply rookie ball league stats and short season stats (which wasn't all that good, though good 82% contact rate, and high 5 BB/6 K ratio).  I would have understood if any of them decided to wait and see how he does in a full season league, which he should be doing in 2020 in Augusta.  Another good implication of the high ranking is that this means most think that Luciano can stick at SS, as there is some fear that he'll need to move to a corner IF or OF position, and thus not be an elite hitter at SS.  These high rankings imply they think he can stay at SS, as well as hit the ball with authority.

And while most Giants prospects get to stay at Augusta for a whole season to acclimate, if he shows he can hit well there, I would not be surprised if they then move him to San Jose so that he's closer to the team and their senior talent evaluators.  I don't necessarily see him making AA unless he goes bonkers in SJ too, but wouldn't be surprised either, as it seems like Zaidi will be aggressive (which some sabermetrics studies have advocated for, given that the peak prime age has moved from around 30 to, like 26-27.  Heck, even under Sabean, guys like Belt and Dirty rose from the low minors to the upper minors within one season or so.

I loved the way he hit from the moment he signed and video started coming out of him hitting, the sound of him making contact is special.  And clearly the rankers agree to a great degree, even though he has little pro experience to measure against.  He'll be 18 YO season in 2020, and should be at A-ball Augusta, so the comparison point there will be how he does there relative to what Heliot Ramos did there at 18 YO:  .245/.313/.396/.709, which wasn't all that good compared to other 18 YO top prospects did in A-ball, but Ramos had a bad six game streak at the end of April, start of May, where he struck out 16 out of 25 AB, which dropped his batting line from .257/.321/.415/.736 overall, which is a nice batting line compared to SALLY average .249/.315/.379/.694, which works out to 109% of league SLG, 198% of league ISO-P, 106% of league OPS, which was not bad when he's 3.4 years younger than the average hitter.  

Where I Wander About Luciano's 2020 Season

For a closer example to compare Luciano to, I took a look at a Latin prospect with similar credentials, Wander Franco, a shortstop who was ranked Top 5 by Baseball America for 2019 (10th by BP), and is the #1 ranked prospect for 2020 by BA, BP, MLB Pipeline, Fangraphs, ZiPS, Law, Sickels, and ESPN, all eight rankings.  McDaniels, of ESPN, noted, "Wander Franco, this year's top prospect, is the best prospect baseball has seen since Mike Trout."  After their first pro season at age 18, here is where the two were ranked in Top 100:

• Luciano (2020):  BA #19; MLB Pipeline #35; BP #14
• Franco   (2019):  BA #4;   MLB Pipeline #13; BP #10

So, they were similar, but Wander Franco was clearly more highly ranked, and we see this in their batting peripherals, though Luciano actually outhit Franco in rookie ball at the same age:

• Luciano:  .322/.438/.616/1.055 with 10 homers in 146 AB, with 27 BB vs. 39 K's, 147% of AZL OPS, 128% of OBP, 164% of SLG, 249% of ISO-P 
• Franco:  .351/.418/.587/1.004 with 11 homers in 242 AB, with 27 BB vs. only 19 K's, 135% of APPY OPS, 119% of OBP, 148% of SLG, 176% of ISO-P

So Luciano was actually a better hitter than Franco, when compared to their league's averages, and both still projects to be shortstops in the major, although both have questions (Luciano more) about whether they will stay at short.

What got Franco the high evaluation rank after this first great season was his great 19 K in 273 PA, an elite contact rate of 93%, while he was 3.3 years younger, coupled with him getting more walks than strikeouts for a great 142% ratio.  Contact rate is a trait that I've noticed is something the better prospects are able to keep up as they rise through the minors and reach the majors.  That turned me on to Sandoval long ago, when he wasn't on anybody's radar.  But it's not perfect, Hector Sanchez had good contact rates in the minors too (it's why Ricardo Genoves has been on my radar).

Luciano had an iffy 73% contact rate, while 2.5 years younger.  But in a very small sample in Short Season Salem-Keizer (3.8 years younger), Marco only hit .212/.316/.333/.649, but had 5 walks vs. only 6 strikeouts, in 38 PA/33 AB, which is a good 82% contact rate with good 0.83 BB/K ratio.  We'll see how he does in Augusta.

If Luciano can keep pace with Franco in terms of their second pro season performance, he should be a Top 10 if not Top 5 overall prospect for 2021.  Franco played at two A-ball levels in 2019, A and Advanced A, hitting:

• A:   .318/.390/.506/.896, 11% BB%, 91% contact rate, 150% BB/K, 132% of MWL OPS, 121% of OBP, 142% of SLG, 162% of ISO-P (3.3 years younger)
• A+: .339/.408/.464/.872, 12% BB%, 92% contact rate, 173% BB/K, 131% of FSL OPS, 130% of OBP, 131% of SLG, 115% of ISO-P (4.4 years younger)

Looks like Wander Franco maintained most of his percentages relative to the league in 2019, that he had achieved in 2018, so that gives us a target for what to look for from Luciano in Augusta in 2020:  if he can maintain similar numbers to what he did in AZL, plus hopefully some improvement in contact rate and BB/K ratio.

I think that while Luciano's strikeouts were high, his walk rate was also very high, significantly higher than Franco's, 15% for Marco vs. 10% for Wander.  And he didn't get even one intentional walk.  Unfortunately, I've not seen any studies about minor leaguers taking a lot of walks being a good thing, other than in ratio against strikeouts.  Still, it is a good hitting skill to be able to draw a lot of walks, hopefully Luciano can keep it going as he rises up the minors, and not that he wasn't being aggressive (with that batting line!) and taking easy walks that won't be there in the upper levels.

Heliot Ramos

Heliot was ranked in seven of the eight Top 100 rankings:

• Baseball America:  #63
• MLB Pipeline:  #65
• Baseball Prospectus:  #34
• Fangraphs:  #68
• ZiPS:  Not Ranked
• The Athletic:  Keith Law:  #52
• The Athletic:  John Sickels:  #81
• ESPN:  #74

That averages out to no higher than 67.2 (if you count ZiPS as 101) and somewhere in the range of 73-75 (if you count ZiPS as around 150), with a high of 34 (Baseball Prospectus) and a low of 81 (John Sickels, among the ranked ones; else low of Not Ranked).

I was disappointed to see him ranked so low across the board.  I have to think that is because he got bigger physically in 2019, which has been the big worry about him, that he'll grow out of playing CF, and while he probably has the bat to play a corner OF position, that's not as valuable as a CF who can hit as well as he looks like he can.

Still, here's what one analyst who sees RF in Heliot's future, Keith Law, said:

He’s a solid athlete, but the way his body is filling out eliminates any chance that he’s going to play center in the majors; he should be capable in right, though, and has the plus arm to play there. If he keeps refining his approach, he’ll unlock more power as he gets older, and he might be a classic No. 4 hitter with 30-plus homer power, some patience, and too many strikeouts to bat second."  I think any team can use such a player.

Longenhagen of Fangraphs noted, similarly, with some words of warning of his downside:

Some of the strikeout issues (25% at Hi-A, 30% at Double-A) become less concerning when you remember Ramos was 19-years-old all year, but they become a bit troubling again when you realize he’s destined for a corner.  Built like a boulder stacked on two Iberico hams, Ramos is already slowing down, and he was an average runner in the Fall League. It’s not great if he is suddenly a corner guy with whiff/discipline issues, though his plate discipline was much more palatable last year. Retaining that will be important or we’re just talking about a Randal Grichuk sequel.

MLB Pipeline also concurs mostly:

Ramos' 2018 struggles weren't unexpected, because at age 18 he was the youngest regular in the low Class A South Atlantic League, and he improved last season when he developed more patience and did a better job of using the entire field. There's not a lot of loft in his right-handed swing, but it's so quick and he's so strong that he can drive the ball out of any part of the ballpark. He's equally effective against lefties and righties and could develop into a .270 hitter with 25-plus homers annually at the big league level.  As Ramos has begun to fill out, he has lost some of his previously plus speed and now grades as more of an average runner. Though the Giants deployed him in center field for most of his first three years in pro ball, most scouts think his reduced quickness and his instincts fit better on a corner. He has the arm strength and offensive upside to profile nicely in right field.

And for an explanation of why ZiPS is down on Ramos, Dan Szymborski noted:

ZiPS is less sure about Heliot Ramos. Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel have been talking about Ramos more as a right fielder, and ZiPS also has concerns about him sticking defensively in center. His speed scores have dropped, and zDEF had Ramos at nine runs worse than the average minor league center fielder. Minor league defensive numbers aren’t strong enough to rely on entirely, but it’s unfortunate that they seem to match the scouting in this case. In a corner, Ramos gets less exciting, and the need to work on his plate discipline becomes more urgent.

What Law said is what I've been saying for over a year, that while people are down on him because he's likely moving to a corner OF position, ignoring that he still looks like a good hitter.  Yes, he didn't hit great in A-ball Augusta, but it was a true 18 YO season for Heliot, turning 19 YO days after the season ended.  And he still hit better than average, as I noted above, he hit .245/.313/.396/.709, which wasn't all that good compared to other 18 YO top prospects did in A-ball, but Ramos had a bad six game streak at the end of April, start of May, where he struck out 16 out of 25 AB, which dropped his batting line from .257/.321/.415/.736 overall, which is a nice batting line compared to SALLY average .249/.315/.379/.694, which works out to 109% of league SLG, 198% of league ISO-P, 106% of league OPS, which was not bad when he's 3.4 years younger than the average hitter.

And most prospects have some hiccups in their learning curve, and he made 2018 to be the blip, as his 2019 was back to where he was in 2017, with great hitting.  As I noted in my Sabean Draft Era analysis, he's the one prospect among the draftees who I think can become a great player (I think Luciano can too, but he wasn't drafted; I also think there is some odds of Corry as well, not as good as Ramos right now, but if he can continue what he did in the second half of 2019, the skies the limit for him as well, so 2020 is a pivotal year, he needs to show that this is his new norm for performance), his batting line at age 19 in Advanced A-ball was comparable with great prospects like Jo Adell, Ronald Acuna Jr, Cody Bellinger, Carlos Correa, and others.  And they all reached the majors within 1-2 years of their great Advanced A ball performance, which if Heliot matches, means he makes the majors in 2020-21.

Hard to compare him to prior Giants OF prospects, since we haven't had a good one in ages.  The only comparable Sabean era Giants OF previously were:  Todd Linden (#82 after 2002), Fred Lewis (#78 after 2004), Thomas Neal (#96 after 2009), Gary Brown (#38 after 2011), all BA rankings.  It would be interesting to know why BP ranks him so high, but I can guess confidently that it is probably because they think he can still stay in CF still.  As quoted above, MLB Pipeline noted his loss of elite speed, and that most scouts see him more as a corner OF, likely RF.

As I analyzed in another post, his performance in Advanced A, compared to the league OPS, was the best among the top hitting 19 YO (and one 20 YO) prospects in Advanced A over the prior five seasons.  Again, guys like Jo Adell (ranked #2 overall by BP for 2020), Ronald Acuna Jr, and Cody Bellinger were names that popped up there, so the skies the limit as far as I'm concerned about Heliot, whereas he gets downgraded by the rankings by "only" doing it as a RF in the majors.

And while he wasn't lights out in AA, he still hit better than the average hitter there, although he was over five years younger than the average hitter in the Eastern League.  I am very much higher about Ramos than the rankings.  And as I noted in my Sabean Era draft analysis, I think that he shows what great players show in the minors, last season, his main hiccup was not killing everything in Augusta.  I expect him to rake (relatively, because it's a pitchers league, for the most part) in AA, and to push to AAA no later than May, especially with this injury to his oblique keeping him out for two weeks, taking away chances to prove he belongs in AAA.

Hunter Bishop

Hunter was ranked in only three of the seven Top 100 rankings:

• Baseball America:  Not Ranked
• MLB Pipeline:  #71
• Baseball Prospectus:  #68
• Fangraphs:  Not Ranked
• ZiPS:  Not Ranked
• The Athletic:  Keith Law:  #87
• The Athletic:  John Sickels:  Not Ranked
• ESPN:  Not Ranked

That averages out to no higher than 91.4 (if you count ZiPS as 101) and somewhere in the range of 120-ish (if you count ZiPS as around 150), with a high of 68 (Baseball Prospectus) and a low of 87 (Keith Law, among the ranked ones; else low of Not Ranked).

Pleasantly surprised to see him ranked at all after his draft season.  He was only the 10th player selected overall, so I'm sure there are guys who were selected above him who were not ranked either (maybe they showed up on the other lists that Hunter wasn't on).   Of course, being on the worse half of the ranking isn't all that great, but it's a great starting point if he can keep up his good hitting and other things that attracted the rankings by MLB Pipeline, BP, and KLaw.   Looks like Zaidi made solid contact with this first draft pick, now we see what he can do from there.

Keith Law stated:

He continued to demonstrate patience and power in pro ball, while also showing his propensity to swing and miss a lot more with the wood bat. A center fielder everywhere he’s played so far, Bishop won’t stay there, profiling as a solid-average left fielder with a below-average arm. His swing is sound and produces enough hard contact to suggest he’s a 30-homer guy in the majors, but he’ll have to tighten up his pitch recognition to keep his strikeout rates manageable to reach that ceiling.

MLB Pipeline noted:

He went 10th overall in June and signed for $4.1 million, then continued to show a blend of power, speed and patience in his pro debut. 

Bishop's bat speed and strength plus the leverage in his 6-foot-5 frame and the loft in his left-handed swing gave him more raw power than most players in the 2019 Draft. He began to translate it into production more frequently once he calmed his approach, worked deeper counts and became more willing to use the opposite field. He still needs to make adjustments to reduce his strikeouts, but he improved his contact rate last year and offsets his whiffs with a healthy amount of walks. 

Also one of the best athletes in the 2019 Draft, Bishop has plus speed that he's still learning how to maximize on the bases. His quickness is more obvious in center field, where he already looks comfortable after playing the corners during his first two college seasons. His arm stands out more for its accuracy than its strength, which earns fringy to average grades.

Just read an article on The Athletic about Hunter Bishop.  It noted that he only started playing baseball full-time starting with his junior HS season.  Seeing as he's only 21 YO, he is behind other hitters his age, in terms of experience and development, and yet he's pretty good right now.  So I find this to be an encouraging piece of information, as this suggests that there's still some additional upside learning curve relative to others that he can still tap into as he gains more experience hitting.

He did well in his debut.  He hit .229/.438/.429/.867 in rookie and short season leagues, with great patience (leading to the .438 OBP vs. .229 BA) and power (ISO 200) leading to good OPS, but poor batting average.  He was roughly the same age, however, so it might be a few years (i.e. normal one level promotion per season) before he reaches the majors (which means reaching the majors in 2022-23).  Unless he can climb that extra learning curve, and make a leap in the next season or two.

Mauricio Dubon

He was ranked 80th by ZiPS.  Having a lot of years in the minors, and good performance in the upper minors, and especially in the majors, helped the algorithms of ZiPS to project him that highly.  

It's still an unknown what we got with him.  At best, he'll be our future starting SS after BCraw.  Most likely, because his hitting is okay but not great, he'll be the super utility guy the Giants have been searching for, at least since Mark DeRosa, who was elite defensively at multiple IF and OF positions, and an okay hitter before his wrist surgery was botched and he was basically useless the two seasons he with with the Giants.  But there's still a chance that MLB pitchers might figure him out and make him more bench than super-utility usage.  Law noted that he's more of an emergency glove at shortstop, so he is probably not the next starting SS after BCraw.

Seth Corry

He was ranked 99th by MLB Pipeline.  I was hoping his great performance at Augusta would be recognized by someone.  From my experience, even top 30-40 guys are not sure thing starters, let alone the star players you hope for when you see your prospect listed on a Top 100 prospect list.  99th just means he has shown so much potential in A-ball that they couldn't leave him off the list.  And I'll take that and am happy with that.  

MLB Pipeline said this about Corry:

He allowed a total of just 11 runs (nine earned) in his final 14 starts, winning South Atlantic League pitcher of the year honors after topping the low Class A circuit with a 1.76 ERA (second in the Minors), 172 strikeouts (fourth), 12.6 strikeouts per nine innings (fifth), a 34 percent whiff rate (fifth) and a .171 opponent average (third). 

Corry's best offering is an upper-70s curveball with downer break and he often commands it better than his fastball. His heater sits in the low 90s and peaks at 96 mph with armside run. His changeup showed significant improvement in 2019, allowing him to keep right-handers in check and look more like a starter than a two-pitch reliever. 

He has drawn comparisons to a young Matt Moore, who had trouble staying on top of his pitches early in his pro career, and Corry took off once he developed and maintained a better and more consistent tempo in his delivery. He cut his walk rate to 2.6 per nine innings during the second half of last season, down from 6.2 earlier in his career. He does throw with some effort, but if he can control and command his pitches like he did at the end of 2019, he could be a No. 3 starter.

MLB Pipeline right now rates him as a potential #3 starter in the majors.  But if he can be like Jonathan Sanchez, he could lead the rotation in ERA, as Dirty did in 2010.  Dirty averaged out to 2.0 bWAR from 2008-2010, and maybe if he wasn't so headstrong, could have had a better MLB career.  An average middle rotation starter would still be a great addition to the roster.

I chose Jonathan Sanchez for comparison because he had a similar performance to Corry in A-ball (only at age 22 YO season; Corry did it in his 20 YO season, with similar peripherals), so that's who I'm thinking in comparison, especially since Dirty was a lefty and Corry as well.   Dirty was a big of a head case (he changed his mechanics, which worked well for him, after playing with his idol, Johan Santana, in the spring international competition, copying Johan's mechanics, even though he was much taller than Johan; he refused for a while to change back, until they sat him down, and when he came back, he threw his one and only no-hitter, if I remember the sequence right), whereas hopefully Corry is more steadier, but lefties are generally their own person, quirky in their own ways.

I thought I would highlight Corry's overall Augusta performance, just to get the overall view of his performance.  First off, his overall numbers, especially considering that he was still roughly two years younger than average pitcher, was pretty good:  1.76 ERA vs. 3.71 ERA for Sally; 12.6 K/9 vs. Sally's 9.2 K/9; 2.97 K/BB vs. 2.79 K/BB.  Only his BB/9 was really bad:  4.3 BB/9 vs. 3.3 BB/9.  But his high K/9 covered for it for an above average K/BB.

Here's his first 12 starts vs. his last 15 starts:

• 12 starts:  2.58 ERA, .194/.354/.285/.639, .313 BABIP, 1.50 WHIP, 0.4 HR/9, 7.1 BB/9, 13.7 K/9, 1.92 K/BB
• 15 starts:  1.28 ERA, .156/.242/.210/.452, .247 BABIP, 0.81 WHIP, 0.2 HR/9, 2.5 BB/9, 12.0 K/9, 4.62 K/BB

Looking at the results, he clearly has a pitch repertoire that gets a lot of strikes and thus strikeouts.  Getting strikeouts is not a problem for Corry, and he's good enough (getting that deep into double. digits is elite) that he looks like he can do it in the majors.

His main problem was controlling the pitches well, looking at all the walks, as everything else is superb.  But it looks like he toned down something in the last 15 starts that enabled him to get more control over his pitches, allowing him to go from abysmal 7.1 BB/9 to a stellar 2.5 BB/9, resulting in his K/BB more than doubling from 1.92 to 4.62.  It appears that he gave up something in his pitching - perhaps taking it easy on the accelerator, and not pushing for top velocity with every pitch - as his K/9 dropped significantly from 13.7 to 12.0 (still elite), but then his walk rate also became very good.  It also resulted in a much lower BABIP - which is a skill, albeit, a less distinct skill for true major league pitchers, per an insider saberist - which could still be a result of some luck, we'll know more with his performance in San Jose and beyond in 2020.

I like to compare Giants prospects against similar age prospect performances in prior years, and for this one, since there were so many 19 and 20 YO with similar ERA or good K/BB, I narrowed them down to SALLY prospects who were ranked by one of BA, MLB Pipeline, or BP:

• Tyler Gasnow (2013, 19 YO): ranked #46, #27, #42 (BA, PL, BP)
• Luis Severino (2014):  #35, #23, #51
• Reynaldo Lopez (2014):  #49, #45, #72
• Lucas Giolito (2014, 19 YO):  #7, #7, #6
• Luis Ortiz (2015):  #64, #73, #68
• DL Hall (2018, 19 YO):  #54, #90, #94

They were all higher ranked, but had similar performances to his last 15 starts (roughly same IP):

• Seth Corry (2019): 1.76 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 0.3 HR/9, 4.3 BB/9, 12.6 K/9, 2.97 K/BB
• Seth Corry (2019-15): 1.28 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 0.2 HR/9, 2.5 BB/9, 12.0 K/9, 4.62 K/BB
• Tyler Gasnow (2013): 2.18 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 0.7 HR/9, 4.9 BB/9, 13.3 K/9, 2.69 K/BB
• Luis Severino (2014):  2.79 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 0.3 HR/9, 2.0 BB/9, 9.3 K/9, 4.67 K/BB
• Reynaldo Lopez (2014): 1.33 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 0.2 HR/9, 2.1 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 3.55 K/BB
• Lucas Giolito (2014):  2.20 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 0.6 HR/9, 2.6 BB/9, 10.1 K/9, 3.93 K/BB
• Luis Ortiz (2015):  1.80 ERA 1.08 WHIP, 0.2 HR/9, 1.6 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 5.11 K/BB
• DL Hall (2018):  2.10 ERA, 1.166 WHIP, 0.6 HR/9, 4.0 BB/9, 9.5 K/9, 2.38 K/BB

Does not mean that he's going to be as good as the guys above, many of which have been good in the majors, but his 15 game stats were better than most of the pitchers who were ranked on top prospect lists and that's with as much IP as the average across them.  This is why I listed Corry above as additional probability of a possible great player in the Heliot Ramos section (and Bart, of course, is some probability as well, less than Ramos but greater than Corry, in my estimation). 

Here's what Keith Law said about Corry, who he did not rank in the Top 100, but had him as the Giants #6 top prospect:

Corry finished 2019 with 172 strikeouts, ranking fourth in all of minor league baseball; he was the youngest pitcher in the top 25 in that category. His delivery had been tough to repeat when he first signed but the Giants have worked on making it smoother. It seemed to show up in the second half of 2019; Corry made 27 starts on the year, and in his last 13 he walked just 18 guys in 68 2/3 innings and posted a 1.18 ERA. His changeup has improved, although he’s still mostly working with his plus fastball and plus curveball; the progress here points to a fairly high ceiling as long as the command and control he showed in the second half holds up.

I bolded the last sentence, which essentially says what the above comparison says about Corry relative to prior good starting pitcher prospects.  So it is not just me thinking that there's more there with Corry than means the eye (or ranking). 

Here's what each has done so far since the above:

• Glasnow reached the majors at the end of his 22 YO season (3 years after) has a career 4.51 ERA, but last year in his age 25 season, had a 1.78 ERA and 5.43 K/BB with 11.3 K/9 (only 11 starts, so must have had a bad injury).  
• Severino reached the majors at the end of his 21 YO season (only 1 year after, but he reached AA the same year he was in the Sally, so that's why he was so quick), 3.46 ERA over five seasons.
• Lopez reached the majors at the end of his 22 YO season (2 years after) and has a 4.67 ERA over four seasons, but had a 3.1 bWAR season in 2018.
• Giolito reached the majors at the end of his 21 YO season (2 years after), 4.60 ERA over four seasons, but in his age 24 YO season last season, had a 5.6 bWAR season
• Ortiz reached the majors at the end of his 22 YO. season (3 years after), but hasn't had the chance to do much of anything in the majors yet, only 3 games played so far, and bad stats.
• Hall jumped up the rankings, to #47 with Baseball America and #69 with MLB Pipeline, the next season

This shows the gamut of possibilities for Corry, if he follows the same path, maybe 2-3 years to reach the majors (2021-22).  One reached the majors within a year, some reach the majors in 2-3 year and struggle before breaking out, some just struggle and never figure it out. 

But I think it's informative to see other 20 YO who's done similarly well in A-ball, and to see how they then subsequently.  Corry isn't as good as the above (a good number were 19 YO and did the same), but he's similar enough to the 19 YO, only a year behind, and to the 20 YO, only he did it in his last 15 starts (similar innings, 77.1 vs 111.1 for Glasnow, 67.2 for Severino, 47.1 of Lopez, 98.0 for Giolito, 50.0 for Oritz and 94.1 for Hall), while throwing the first 12 starts as well (kind of like a extra pre-season, relative to the others). 

The major reason I think it's legit to treat his last 15 games separately is because his BB/9 rate went from a horrendous 7.1 BB/9 to a very good 2.5 BB/9.  To illustrate the stark difference in quality of control, out of those first 12 starts, he only had one start that worked out to be below 3.0 BB/9 vs. ten out of 15 starts. 

One can see the difference in quality by Game Score as well.  By Game Score, he had 6 of 12 with 54+, vs. 12 of 14 starts with 54+, and 3 of 12 with 60+ vs. 10 of 14 with 60+, plus 0 of 12 with 70+ vs. 6 of 14 with 70+.   The big stretch was five starts in the middle, average Game Score of 75, 0.00 ERA, 28.2 IP with 7 hits and 5 walks, plus 44 K's (1.6 BB/9, 13.8 K/9, 8.8 K/BB, .202 OPS, .149 BABIP).  If he's that Corry in 2020, the skies the limit for him too, hence why I included him as a possibility of a great player.