This is the Quality Start with a sabermetric DIPS twist, and it gets really easy to calculate once you get used to it. I don't think it's the end all or be all, but then nothing really is that. It is, as I like to say, another piece of the puzzle. A dominating start is scored a 4 or 5 and a disaster start is scored a 0 or 1. DOM% is the percentage of starts that are dominating, DIS% is the percentage of starts that are disasters.
What's New
What's Good and What's Not
From my observations of PQS (now old PQS; not sure what the ranges are for newPQS or especially ogcPQS, which is my hybrid), a DOM at or above the 40% mark is indicative of good pitching; above 50% is great; above 70% is elite. A low DIS is also indicative of good pitching, just look at the table in the link above showing DOM% and DIS% on the axes.
Basically, you want to see a pitcher's DOM% to be over 40% and ideally over 50%, and you want their DIS to be under 20% and ideally under 10%. For example, Johan Santana has a 76% DOM and 3% DIS in 2006 (2.77 ERA), whereas Orlando Hernandez had a 52% DOM and 28% DIS (4.66 ERA), and Adam Eaton had a 31% DOM and 31% DIS (5.12 ERA). Read the link (unfortunately, they removed the article and thus the table is no longer available, sorry), as I noted, there's a nice chart there showing the combination of high DOM% and low DIS%, and there you can see particularly how a low DIS% is so important to a low ERA.
Plus, I have not figured out what is the levels of okay and bad are for the newPQS, and I may never know for ogcPQS (probably a good reason for me not to keep that going), since I don't have league wide stats on that. But clearly, with Bumgarner's historic record pushed down to the 40's and 50's, after being in the 60's, 70's, 80's, the ranges for Good, Great, Elite, have clearly changed,
Plus, I have not figured out what is the levels of okay and bad are for the newPQS, and I may never know for ogcPQS (probably a good reason for me not to keep that going), since I don't have league wide stats on that. But clearly, with Bumgarner's historic record pushed down to the 40's and 50's, after being in the 60's, 70's, 80's, the ranges for Good, Great, Elite, have clearly changed,
If you had to chose a high DOM% or a low DIS%, pitchers tend to have a lower ERA when you have a low DIS% vs. a high DOM% (obviously if you combine both, you have a much better chance of having an elite pitcher). But I think when the DOM% is high enough, you win more by choosing a high DOM% over a low DIS%, as there are more high quality games pitched overall.
Part of the new terminology is DEC or Decent, which covered all the starts that aren't DOM or DIS (what I used to call MID; love this term better). What I had found previously was that DEC starts were actually decent, and would help a pitcher keep his ERA decent, whereas a particularly bad DIS are the ones that would kill the pitcher's ERA. In fact, pitchers could have a decent ERA even if they do not have many DOM starts, as long as they can limit DIS starts.
The new methodology of no more automatic DIS starts for under 5 IP, will help to bump up DEC ERA, for my experience dealing with the automatic DIS starts was that a good number of them were decent (and sometimes DOM) but hurt badly because of too many hits and/or walks.
Part of the new terminology is DEC or Decent, which covered all the starts that aren't DOM or DIS (what I used to call MID; love this term better). What I had found previously was that DEC starts were actually decent, and would help a pitcher keep his ERA decent, whereas a particularly bad DIS are the ones that would kill the pitcher's ERA. In fact, pitchers could have a decent ERA even if they do not have many DOM starts, as long as they can limit DIS starts.
The new methodology of no more automatic DIS starts for under 5 IP, will help to bump up DEC ERA, for my experience dealing with the automatic DIS starts was that a good number of them were decent (and sometimes DOM) but hurt badly because of too many hits and/or walks.
I wholeheartedly recommend buying Baseball Forecaster and learning more about their methods of analyzing baseball. It has been greatly illuminating for me, and if you want to get a taste for it without paying full price, they used to sell their old editions of their annuals on their website for half price or less (plus shipping); but that was before he sold the company off, and I haven't checked recently. I've started buying the e-book version to save money on it, as the main value is related to the fantasy baseball content, which I don't use at all now. So going forward, I might be waiting a season to buy the books, it will depend.
Giants Starters' PQS for 2018 SeasonTyler Beede -
PQS: 0, 0/ / / (0% DOM, 100% DIS; 0:2/2)
newPQS: 2, 2/ / / (0% DOM, 0% DIS; 0:0/2)
ogcPQS: 2, 2/ / / (0% DOM, 0% DIS; 0:0/2)
Ty Blach -
PQS: 3, 0, 3, 3, 4, 3, 5/4, 0, 0, 0, 0/ /0/ (23% DOM, 46% DIS; 3:6/13)
newPQS: 2, 1, 2, 2, 0, 1, 2/ 3, 1, 0, 1, 1/ /1/ (0% DOM, 62% DIS; 0:8/13)
ogcPQS: 2, 1, 3, 2, 1, 1, 2/ 3, 1, 0, 1, 1/ /2/ (0% DOM, 54% DIS; 0:7/13)
Madison Bumgarner -
PQS: / /3, 2, 2, 5, 5/3, 3, 4, 0, 4/2, 5, 4, 3, 5, 4/ (50% DOM, 6% DIS; 8:1/16)
newPQS: / /2, 1, 1, 5, 5/2, 2, 2, 3, 4/2, 4, 0, 2, 4, 4/ (38% DOM, 19% DIS; 6:3/16)
ogcPQS: / /3, 1, 2, 5, 5/3, 2, 3, 3, 5/2, 4, 1, 3, 4, 4/ (38% DOM, 19% DIS; 6:3/16)
PQS: 5, 2, 5, 5, 3/ / /0, 2, 2, 0// (33% DOM, 22% DIS; 3:2/9)
newPQS: 4, 1, 5, 4, 1/ / /0, 1, 2, 1// (33% DOM, 56% DIS; 3:5/9)
ogcPQS: 4, 2, 5, 5, 2/ / /0, 1, 2, 1// (33% DOM, 33% DIS; 3:3/9)
Derek Holland -
PQS: 3, 5, 0, 4, 0/4, 1, 4, 4, 5, 1/0, 4, 3, 4, 5/0, 5, 5, 4/4, 4, 0, 4, 3/ (60% DOM, 28% DIS; 15:7/25)
newPQS: 2, 4, 0, 3, 1/2, 0, 4, 1, 4, 0/3, 2, 2, 3, 4/1, 5, 2, 2/3, 4, 2, 4, 3/ (28% DOM, 24% DIS; 7:6/25)
ogcPQS: 2, 5, 0, 4, 1/2, 0, 4, 2, 5, 0/3, 2, 2, 4, 4/1, 5, 3, 3/3, 4, 2, 4, 3/ (36% DOM, 20% DIS; 9:5/25)
Dereck Rodriguez -
PQS: //5, 0, 3, 3, 5, 5/3, 5, 5, 5/5, 4, 4, 2/ (64% DOM, 7% DIS; 9:1/14)
newPQS: //3, 1, 2, 3, 4, 4/3, 5, 2, 4/5, 3, 2, 0/ (36% DOM, 14% DIS; 5:2/14)
ogcPQS: //4, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5/3, 5, 4, 4/5, 3, 3, 0/ (50% DOM, 14% DIS; 7:2/14)
Jeff Samardzija -
PQS: /3, 0, 3/ /3, 0/ (0% DOM, 40% DIS; 0:2/5)
newPQS: /2, 0, 2/ /2, 2/ (0% DOM, 20% DIS; 0:1/5)
ogcPQS: /2, 0, 2/ /2, 2/ (0% DOM, 20% DIS; 0:1/5)
Chris Stratton -
PQS: 4, 3, 3, 5, 4, 0/4, 0, 0, 1, 3/5, 0, 3, 5, 3, 0/0/0, 4, 5/ (38% DOM, 38% DIS; 8:8/21)
newPQS: 3, 2, 3, 5, 4, 0/2, 1, 0, 1, 2/4, 1, 3, 3, 2, 0/0/0, 4, 5/ (24% DOM, 38% DIS; 5:8/21)
ogcPQS: 3, 2, 3, 5, 4, 0/2, 1, 0, 1, 2/5, 1, 3, 4, 3, 1/1/0, 4, 5/ (29% DOM, 38% DIS; 6:8/21)
PQS: 3/5, 3, 0, 4, 0, 4/5, 4, 4, 1, 3/2, 2, 4, 0, 4, 5/ (50% DOM, 21% DIS;12:5/24)
newPQS: 3/4, 3, 1, 2, 1, 2/4, 3, 4, 0, 1/1, 1, 3, 0, 4, 5/ (29% DOM, 38% DIS; 7:9/24)
ogcPQS: 3/4, 3, 2, 3, 1, 2/4, 4, 4, 0, 2/2, 1, 3, 0, 4, 5/ (38% DOM, 29% DIS; 9:7/24)
Giants Season overall -
PQS: 42% DOM, 30% DEC, 27% DIS out of 137 games counted (58:37/136)
newPQS: 24% DOM, 40% DEC, 35% DIS out of 137 games counted (33:48/136)
ogcPQS: 29% DOM, 41% DEC, 29% DIS out of 137 games counted (40:40/136)
Giants Month of April -
PQS: 34% DOM, 42% DEC, 24% DIS out of 29 games counted (10:7/29)
newPQS: 21% DOM, 48% DEC, 31% DIS out of 29 games counted (6:9/29)
ogcPQS: 24% DOM, 52% DEC, 24% DIS out of 29 games counted (7:7/29)
Giants Month of May -
PQS: 33% DOM, 15% DEC, 52% DIS out of 27 games counted (9:14/27)
newPQS: 11% DOM, 30% DEC, 59% DIS out of 27 games counted (3:16/27)
ogcPQS: 11% DOM, 37% DEC, 52% DIS out of 27 games counted (3:14/27)
Giants Month of June -
PQS: 46% DOM, 36% DEC, 18% DIS out of 28 games counted (13:5/28)
newPQS: 29% DOM, 46% DEC, 25% DIS out of 28 games counted (8:7/28)
ogcPQS: 43% DOM, 36% DEC, 21% DIS out of 28 games counted (12:6/28)
Giants Month of July -
PQS: 44% DOM, 28% DEC, 28% DIS out of 25 games counted (11:7/25)
newPQS: 24% DOM, 48% DEC, 28% DIS out of 25 games counted (6:7/25)
ogcPQS: 32% DOM, 44% DEC, 24% DIS out of 25 games counted (8:6/25)
Giants Month of August -
PQS: 56% DOM, 26% DEC, 18% DIS out of 27 games counted (15:5/27)
newPQS: 37% DOM, 30% DEC, 33% DIS out of 27 games counted (10:9/27)
ogcPQS: 37% DOM, 37% DEC, 26% DIS out of 27 games counted (10:7/27)
The month of August for PQS continued some of the momentum that happened in June and July, but ultimately it wasn't enough because the offense let them down.
Bumgarner led the way once more, with 4/3/3 DOM starts, followed by Holland and Suarez with 3/2/2, and D-Rod, just behind, with 3/1/1. Stratton also chipped in 2/2/2, with his two great starts at the end of the month, when he returned to the rotation after getting help with his mechanics from Vogelsong in AAA (they apparently have the same mechanics, so Vogie was able to share some tips on what he did to be successful in the majors; from what I read, Stratton didn't even rely much on his elite curveball to dominate). Blach and Casey Kelly also had a start or two, but no DOM starts.
There were various leaders in DIS starts. In PQS, D-Rod and Bumgarner led with 0 DIS, and the rest were tied at 1 DIS start: Blach, Stratton, Holland, Suarez, Kelly. In NewPQS, Suarez led with 3 DIS starts, Kelly had 2 DIS starts, and Blach, Stratton, D-Rod, and Bumgarner had 1 DIS. In ogcPQS, Suarez and Kelly led with 2 DIS starts each, and Stratton, D-Rod, and Bumgarner had 1 DIS. Holland was the only starter with 0 DIS in newPQS and ogcPQS.
Overall, PQS looked good, one of the best months in the seasons. Us Giants fans were spoiled by regular 60%+ DOM for the month, and August was the first month this season that the rotation broke 50% in PQS and 30% in newPQS. And it was the second highest for ogcPQS.
The pitching stats were great for the most part. Bumgarner led with 2.08 ERA in 6 starts, followed by D-Rod with 2.16 ERA in 4 starts and Holland with 2.60 ERA in 5 starts.
- Bumgarner: 2.08 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 2.50 K/BB
- Suarez: 4.41 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 2.60 K/BB (steep drops due to bad starts to end the month)
- Holland: 2.60 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 2.45 K/BB (peripherals were for all pitching; both great!)
- Rodriguez: 2.16 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 2.25 K/BB
- Stratton: 4.15 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 3.50 K/BB (one really bad start, minors, then two great starts)
- Blach: 9.00 ERA (one start)
- Kelly: 2.61 ERA, 5.2 K/9, 6.00 K/BB (two starts)
Also, D-Rod had a DIS start in his last start of August. Up to that point, he had accumulated 136.1 IP. Given that he's relatively new to pitching full-time, we can track his usage rate and how much he can add on in terms of stamina per season, which I've seen to be at 25-30 IP added per season (the Giants do tend to push their top prospects up that usage level at faster than 25-30 IP added per season).
He started out with 25.2 IP in 2014 plus 3.1 IP in winter league, for a total of 29.0 IP. Adding 25.0 IP per season, he would be up to 129.0 IP, and adding 30.0 IP, he would be at 149.0 IP, which is roughly (136.1 IP plus IP of last start) where he had his first DIS start since his second start. That was 11 straight starts without a DIS start, which is very good. Of course, this is just one start, but still, he had his first clear 0 PQS disaster start after passing that innings growth rule of thumb. Maybe it was just one bad start, maybe his arm is tiring, we'll see in September.
August PQS Comparison Thoughts
Overall, again, even by PQS standards, this rotation is nothing like the Giants have had during their Dynasty period, when they were collectively cranking out 60's. The 30's the rotation had in April and May, is nothing like what it had during the peak of Tim/Matt/Mad. Neither was the 46% of June or 44% of July, but at least that was in what I would call good territory. But as I noted, without Shark or Cueto being put in, the Giants would have had a 58% DOM PQS, which is pretty good, and that showed up in August, with a 54% DOM PQS (without Blach and Kelly, the five main starters were 60% DOM/12% DIS, which is up there with our rotations during the good competitive seasons).
And when you look at the results overall, we see that the starting pitchers were much above average for the month, with a 3.12 ERA (7.6 K/9 and 2.62 K/BB) vs. 3.67 ERA (8.1 K/9 and 3.13 K/BB) for the NL overall for August. The Giants starters, in spite of that great ERA, was only 6th in the NL in August, though. And just looking at the 5 main starters, 2.99 ERA, 7.6 K/9, and 2.55 K/BB.
Looking at the three methodologies, PQS seems to match the facts in the above paragraphs best:
- PQS: 56%/26%/18%
- newPQS: 37%/30%/33%
- ogcPQS: 37%/37%/26%
- PQS: 63%/25%/13%
- newPQS: 42%/33%/25%
- ogcPQS: 42%/38%/21%
In spite of how good the starting rotation was in August, and how good the bullpen was (3.53 ERA, 8.4 K/9, and 2.59 K/BB), the Giants only went 13-14 during the month. That's what happens when the offense only averaged 3.44 runs scored per game in August, hitting a beyond anemic .217/.275/.319/.594. That's below Neifi and close to the Mendoza Line.
Bullpen
Thank goodness for our bullpen this season and they continued to be above average in August, though they missed a step this month. Overall, the Giants bullpen had a 3.53 ERA in August, vs. 4.20 ERA for the NL relievers, good for 7th overall in the NL.
As I noted last month, perhaps they are starting to wear down, as they blew a number of leads during the month. The guys who brought the bullpen down were Pierce Johnson (not surprising, though, based on what he did earlier in the season), Tony Watson (he had been a huge find most of the season, but 5.59 ERA in 11 appearances could mean he's starting to wear down, as he gave up 12 hits in 9.2 IP; but his peripherals were still good, 8.4 K/9 and 3.00 K/BB, so probably some bad luck involved), and Ray Black (after completing his reliever no-hitter, he has been knocked around, and had a 9.00 ERA in August, with 10 hits in 7.0 IP, but still a stupendous 14.1 K/9 and 11.00 K/BB, so perhaps just reliever SSS plus some regression relative to that no-hitter period).
Offense
The offense got worse in August, much worse. Their .594 OPS was the worse in the NL by a very large margin (next highest was Marlins at .640, then Pirates at .669). The only above average hitter was McCutchen, and he's been traded away in a waiver deadline deal with the Yankees, which returned two interesting prospects, which MLB.com already ranked as 17th and 18th in our farm system.
- Abiatal Avelino, who is a good glove, questionable bat, type of prospect, looks to be our future middle utility infielder (only 23 YO this season) once Tomlinson gets too expensive, but has hit well enough, peripheral-wise, in the lower minors that we could at least hope he can figure it out, and he has nice speed (27 SB; 8 triples) to go with some power (15 HR). I like that he was able to figure out pitchers at the lower levels good enough to not strike out that much, while also getting a good number of walks (almost 50% of his K's). His main negative previously was his lack of power, which is why he profiles as a utility player in the majors. But he did hit for power really well in AA this season (216 ISO, .553 SLG, .945 OPS), and although his drop in power in AAA causes MLB.com to downgrade his AA as luck, I would note that he was -1.2 years younger in AA vs. -3.4 years younger in AAA, and while younger, still did not strike out that much, only 21%, which is not bad if he can get back to his HR level in AA this season (10 HR in 190 AB, for a great 19.0 AB/HR ratio). Add in a strong arm, so that defense probably don't take a huge hit at SS, we should get some value out of him, like we have with Tomlinson, who has provided a combo of okay offense with okay defense as MI utility. And with Kelby at 29 YO in 2019, Avelino could be battling with him for that job next couple of springs (as well as Hanson), depending if he can continue his progression up the minors. Best guess is 2019 debut (injuries!) and 2020 takes over one of the infield utility positions (currently expected to be Hanson and Sandoval in 2019).
- Juan De Paulo, already with his third team (Mariners-Yankees-Giants), but only 20 YO season, and he has a 60-rated fastball, working in the 92-97 MPH range, with 3 solid or better pitches (curveball and changeup). De Paulo had a solid first start with Augusta, while Avelino is still getting used to AAA pitchers, having struggled first with the Yankees AAA and now Sacramento. MLB.com thinks he can be a nice back rotation starter, based on what he had done before, so I wonder if the Giants can work with him to become even better, based on his first Augusta start: 5.0 IP, only 2 hits and 1 walk, with 9 strikeouts, 1 ER (1 HR). It was his best start of the season, by far, though perhaps he figured something out, as he probably had his second best appearance in his prior appearance, as a reliever (his only relief appearance of the season): 6.1 IP, only 1 hit and 1 walk, with 4 strikeouts, 0 ER. At 20 YO, he's a full 1.9 years younger than the league, so that bodes well for his progress to Advanced A in 2019, and he probably still has some projection in his body at 6' 3" and only 165 pounds, so he could reach even higher velocity and be projected even higher than a back of rotation starter, per MLB.com. I agree with this assessment, and, expecting some bumps in the road, probably won't see him in the majors until he's 24-25 (2022-23).
Otherwise, the offense was abysmal. Duggar was the only decent enough hitter, hitting .256/.293/.423/.716 in August, and, after a great first week, followed by a bad slump the following six weeks, then he started hitting when he got injured.
Longoria had power but not batting average or walks. Panik had no power (there is a rumor that he's been affected by an injury for a while). Slater, in spite of all the fan support to play more, only hitting .643 OPS. Pence providing some power, at 125 ISO, but no hits or walks, for .601 OPS. Posey was actually contributing in spite of his hip issues, with .333 OBP (second only to McCutchen's .376) but no power means not a great OPS, he was just under .600 OPS.
Which means the rest were below .600 OPS: d'Arnaud, Hanson (really bad .217/.226/.317/.542), Bumgarner is here due to a double (include for reference; .538 OPS), Hundley (walks, else nothing, .178/.315/.222/.537), Belt (still having his knee issue), Crawford (apparently also having a knee issue), Hernandez (.410 OPS so with Duggar's injury, he'll play more, but that's why Blanco was brought up).
And, on top of all that, there were 15 unearned runs, or roughly 14% of all runs allowed (8% for the season up to end of July), leading to 3.85 runs allowed per game. So the team defense was off by a lot this month as well.
Final Thoughts
Overall, the Giants are pretty much done, as, even if they win every game for the rest of the season, they would only be at 91 wins, and what are the odds of that happening? Even if they go 18-5, that only gets them to 86 wins, and that's not going to get them a WC berth. Even 20-3 would leave them at 88 wins with no playoffs, most likely.
Besides, can't win with an offense so bad, how does a team have an overall OPS of under .600 OPS? It feels like a minor miracle that the team was just one game under .500 for August (though per Pythagorean, a 12-15 record was expected, and we were 13-14). Every time it seemed like the team was going to make a push to get back into the race (wins against LA and AZ), they lose the last game of the series and fall back. Wins in just those two series would have placed the Giants only 3.5 behind D-backs and 4.5 behind Dodgers, but still 6 games behind Rockies.
Young Does Not Mean Good
I understand the call by many to play the young players over, say, Pence, but when nobody is hitting, they don't deserve to be playing full time, else you are just rewarding them for not hitting that well, and you don't want them to have that mindset either. So I agree with Bochy platooning players and resting veterans, as necessary, as none of the young guys, other than Duggar, had earned a chance to play almost full time.
I see people clamoring for Shaw and Garcia. I get the desire to play them, but to say that Bochy and Sabean are stupid and deserving of losing their jobs for playing them just shows how lacking in baseball knowledge they are.
Baseball is generally a meritocracy. You want there to be competition between players when none of them have shown the ability to play consistently at a high enough level. You con't just reward a young player just because there's an opening. That's why the Giants under Sabean generally sign a veteran who becomes the low hurdle for the prospect to beat out for the starting position, as well as be a floor for expected production out of that position.
For example, lets examine Shaw. First off, he's not hitting much in AAA for a guy his age. .813 OPS in AAA is just not very good, unless he's like 19-20 YO. Meanwhile, his peripherals are horrible: 5% BB is barely anything, while 34% K% is horribly high. Combined, that means that he's most likely to hit really poorly in the majors, with occasional power, leading to a poor overall OPS. However, if you look at his splits, he's been horrible against LHP in 2018, but much better against RHP, showing some potential there. So a platoon for him makes sense, as you get to see his better side, and don't expose him against his weakness to LHP this season.
Garcia is an even bigger issue. He barely hit in AA, regressing from what he did in 2017, then hit even worse in AAA. The only reason he's up here right now is because Posey had to have surgery now in order to be ready to make Opening Day 2019. Nothing he has done so far in the minors this season would have resulted in a promotion to the majors. I'm rooting for him and hope he can figure things out, but his MiLB batting lines do not suggest that there is a great chance for success if he plays full time. So he should be just backing up Hundley, not exposing himself daily to pitchers who should eat him up alive, as the Giants are currently using him.
Maintaining Trade Value
Here is an even better reason not to expose young players like this by playing them a lot: maybe the Giants still hope to trade them for a good veteran player for 2019. If you place Shaw and Garcia full time, yeah, maybe you hit the lucky jackpot and they are the one in a thousand player who rises above his mediocre MiLB numbers to become a good major leaguer. More likely is that they get exposed as not being very ready for the majors, and other teams won't want them in a trade as a return for giving up their veteran player.
It is one thing to know that there's a chance the prospect can become good for you in the majors. But if they play full time in the majors now and play poorly, other teams will want other shiny prospect bauble to trade for, not players whose vulnerabilities have been exposed at the major league level.
So it would be managerial malpractice to just kill the prospect value of players who could be key trade pieces for necessary players for the 2019 season (because you know that the Giants are still going to be re-setting for 2019, not rebuilding) for no good baseball reason. And both Sahw and Garcia have not done enough in AAA to deserve a promotion, meaning they most likely would fail to produce in the majors. And Shaw or Garcia (especially with Bart around) could be the Reynolds of the 2018 off-season, used to trade for a good player whose contract is expiring in one to two seasons, for big money, but not outrageous money (or maybe big, they were willing to take on Stanton).
Even if you are rebuilding, you may be able to bundle them together to get complementary players. Even rebuilding teams must field all positions, and no team in MLB history since the draft began has composed their entire team out of homegrown players, there will always be a veteran here and there, via trade or free agency, both to produce something as well as to teach the young players the keys to success in the majors. So maybe Shaw and Garcia can fetch a young veteran, like the next Ozuna or Yellich (Kiermaier?). They were certainly part of the rumor mill during the off-season.
September Strategy
Another good reason to just play the young guys is to just tank the season. But frankly, all the complaints about the veterans gives the Giants another legit reason to play the veterans: to tank. Teams have been tanking right and left, in order to get a better draft pick position. The Tigers did as much last season to edge out the Giants, but in the end, I don't think it mattered, as Bart was the obvious choice for the Giants either way. In any case, frankly, Bart has done stupendously great as a pro, whereas Mize has struggled so far.
So, if the vets are as bad as these people think, then shouldn't we play them so that we get a better draft pick? And likewise, if the prospects are as good as people think, playing them would cause the Giants to get a better pick.
In any care, here are my thoughts. First off, given that Crawford and Belt are battling knee problems, I would just sit them down, since it is a health issue, and give starts at 1B to d'Arnaud and at SS to Avelino, the new Giant. This is because Avelino will need to be placed on the 40-man roster after the season anyway, and he's probably second on the Giants depth chart for SS at the moment, leaping ahead of Ryan Howard and CJ Hinojosa. Avelino don't have much trade value anyway (Giants got him AND De Paulo for one month of McCutchen and, like, $1M) and this allows the major league staff to evaluate his defense and what he needs to work on with his hitting. d'Arnaud might not return, as he would be battling Sandoval for a roster spot, and perhaps Hanson, Avelino, and Tomlinson, so this helps him out by showing his versatility.
They can continue platooning Panik with Hanson at 2B, as we need to see what Hanson can do while playing semi-regular, and similar with Shaw platooning with Pence in LF. The Giants still need to figure out what Hanson can do for them, and whether they can improve him further. I would throw him into the mix at 1B and 3B, so that he's starting more regularly in September.
Shaw, as noted above, had a severe split between RHP and LHP in 2018, so the Giants can get to see how he plays against RHP, as well as in the field, which won't hurt his trade value as much as it would if he were playing full-time. Plus, Gorkys and Blanco can platoon in CF, even though neither have hit all that well (good for a better draft pick).
Slater can get to be the regular starting RF. This is because he doesn't have much prospect trade value, having never been ranked highly, so playing him would not eliminate the option of trading him, because he was not going to bring much even if he wasn't played much. And he gets another chance to show what he can do with regular playing time, as he has done well before getting to start regularly.
For the starting rotation, I would start throwing in Casey Kelly, in order to get a better idea of what he can do for the Giants, while giving one of the young guys, either D-Rod or Suarez, an extra day of rest, or even a full skipped start. I would also throw in Blach, especially against the LA Dodgers in the last series, since he seems to own them. Again, the idea is to eat up some innings so that D-Rod and Suarez's (as well as Holland's) arms do not get overly stressed in this final month, as both D-Rod, Suarez, and Holland is pitching more innings than they have in recent seasons.
For the bullpen, I would start trying to give more rest to Smith and Watson. Willy because he's still coming back from TJS, Watson because he seems to be tiring out, he blew a couple of leads in recent weeks. I would do the same for Moronta because he's young and not used to being used so much.
Melancon I would re-install as closer and see how his arm holds up with closer duties in September. Ideally, he's setting himself up to retake the closer role in 2019 and give Bochy a reliable closer to utilize. Then we got Smith and Watson to shut down the 7th and 8th.
I would use Pierce Johnson more, both to see what he can do, but, since he does not look like he's all that good so far, he can absorb innings and we win either way: if he does well, that means that he figured out what he needs to do to be successful in the majors, and if he continues to do poorly, we lose more games, and try to get a better pick. Give his arm more work, given Moronta, Smith, and Watson less work.
I would be selective with the usage of Strickland and Dyson. For 2019, there should be six bullpen spots open again, and Melancon, Watson, Smith, Moronta, and Black already would take 5 spots. Now, the Giants could just keep Strickland and Dyson around, and let Black battle for a spot, but given how well he has done, I expect the Giants to leave a spot for him to beat out over Okert, Law, Osich, and perhaps Blach. That leaves one spot for Strickland or Dyson. So I'm not using them in order to minimize the chances of them getting blown out and ruining their ERA. Dyson had a sub-3 ERA in 2017 until his last two appearances, when he gave up so many runs that it ballooned over 4, I don't want a repeat.
Both are arbitration eligible, and Dyson in particular, would probably be in the $6-7M range for 2019. I would work towards something in that range for him, maybe get him signed to a two year deal, and then see what the trade market is for Dyson and Strickland. Both have flaws, but given the strong market interest in and demand for relievers, I would gamble keeping both around in order to see if there is a team out there willing to pony up some good prospects for one or both.
As a resetting team which has a surplus in relief, and yet the space to hold onto them if necessary, the Giants could keep them around because you know that there will be a team desperate for a closer and/or set up reliever come spring training, come opening day, and the Giants should pounce then for a deal for prospects to further restock the farm system.
There is also the issue of Samardzija. The Giants already have five starters with him: Bumgarner, D-Rod, Suarez, Stratton, and Shark. Holland might not re-sign with the team because of the lack of opportunity in the rotation. However, he seems to love it here, and I think he will return, as most likely he'll be battling Stratton for a spot in the rotation. The loser would then be long relief (though battling with Blach for that role as well), which is what he went through this year. I don't think he has done well enough, for another team to pony up more money to get him specifically as a starter, they would be making him battle too, so I think he stays here, assuming the money is fair, because he likes it here.
However, the way I see it, if Holland does return, Samardzija does not automatically get a starting rotation spot if the other pitchers pitch better, the Giants could decide to return him to the role where he's actually had consistent success with, which is relief. Or, if he pitches very well in spring training, they could sell him off to another team, packaging him with $10-20M, to get a good prospect from another team, as well as to save money. There are a lot of different ways that this can be played, including if Samardzija finally figures out how to be consistently good and they want to keep him. More good pitching is always good, the cream rises to the top, and you can sell the overflow for prospects.
Draft Pick View
Overall, barring a complete collapse on the Giants part, plus a surge on the part of Mets, Blue Jays, or Twins, getting the 12th pick is the most likely highest pick that they can fall to (currently 14th, could fall to 16th as well, if the Giants wins a lot or those teams tanking more).
However, I don't see a complete collapse coming for the Giants because of their pitching. Again, look at August, they only averaged 3.44 runs scored, hitting under .600 OPS, and still ended up only one game under .500, because of their great starting rotation. So barring a sudden lack of performance across the whole rotation, I don't see the Giants collapsing. Likewise, with so many iffy hitters getting regular starts, across the whole team, I don't see the Giants winning so many games that they rise to a later pick, aside from 15th, as they are only one game and a half ahead of the Nats. They are roughly a .500 team, short of one, really, given the poor hitting, and that should solidify their draft pick to be at least 14th, if not higher.
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