Your 2014 Giants: 10th Rotational PQS

A quick look at the 10th rotational PQS.

ogc thoughts

DOM is up to 52.1% and DIS is down to 20.8%.  DOM has been steadily rising over the weeks.  Just as importantly, DIS has been steadily dropping over the weeks.  In fact, the Giants have gone through three straight rotation rounds with no true DIS start (I am not counting Cain's start this rotation as DIS because he left with injury and not counting Hudson's start this time as DIS because he was taken out because of the rain delay, and while not pitching all that well, was headed for a Middle start.

This is the third straight rotation round where the starters compiled 3 DOM starts.  That is necessary to maintain a 60% DOM (3 starts of 5).  At 52.1% it is 6.4%-points better than where it was before this good stretch started, which was 45.7%.  And they were steady at 40% for a while there, before starting to rise with the 6th round.

• Bumgarner:  50% DOM
• Cain:  43.9% DOM
• Hudson:  62.5% DOM
• Lincecum:  60% DOM
• Vogelsong:  50% DOM  
• Petit:  33.3% DOM

So all are doing well (good is 40%+), and four are great, at or over 50% (elite is 70%+).

As noted, third straight rotation round where there has been no true DIS start.  This has been steadily dropping for six rounds (except for one hiccup in round 7, when Petit was off in that start).

• Bumgarner:  30% DIS
• Cain:  14.3% DIS
• Hudson:  0% DIS
• Lincecum:  30% DIS
• Vogelsong:  30% DIS
• Petit:  33.3% DIS

As I've discussed before, the key to keeping your ERA good is more by avoiding disaster starts then getting dominating starts.  A pitcher could have low DOM but still a very good ERA if he can limit the DIS starts as well.  I learned that with ol' Brad Hennessy long ago, he didn't DOM much but kept his ERA shining enough by avoiding the DIS as well.

While I would like to see less DIS starts from Lincecum and Vogelsong, they are our back of the rotation guys, you can live with that.  I'm still viewing this season as a learning season for Lincecum, so I'll take the good with the bad, but would note that he's 66.7% DOM/22.2% DIS in his last 9 starts.   Vogelsong was still getting into baseball shape early on, and has been superlative since, with three straight DOM starts and five of six (86.7%).  His last disaster start was start #4.  

Bumgarner has been the disappointment with 50% DOM/30% DIS.  He should be like last year, acting as our ace, but hasn't.  He had only 2 DIS starts last season and already has 3 so far this season.  However, there are mitigating circumstances to one of them, his first start.  

His first start was a new and pressure-filled experience, his first opening day assignment ever.  Plus, he was headed for a 2 PQS start (just need one more inning) but Bochy took him out with only 78 pitches.  He also was getting BABIPed a bit too, with 6 hits in 4 IP.  Still he should have been able to convert that into a 2-3 PQS (with one more K and no walks) if kept in the game.  

Plus, he has been doing better more recently.  3 of his last 4 starts were DOM (and now 4 of 5) and his last DIS start was his 6th start (next start is 11th).  So he seems to be in a pretty good spot right now with his pitching, he was totally dominating in his last start (next round).  

Petit has done great for us.  Most teams get crap from their emergency starter, usually don't even get more than 4-5 IP.   We have gone 8-3 with him up to this start (as we know, we lost his latest start to the Cubs, that is in next round's stats) in the last three seasons.   Teams sometimes don't get that from their ace (Bumgarner starts this season, Giants 7-4 including last start, which is for next round).   Petit had a true DIS start in his first start for us ever, in 2012, which I'm willing to chalk up to nerves.   Since then 5 DOM starts (four of them 5 PQS) out of 11 starts, and two of the MID starts could have been DOM starts if Bochy had let him go an additional 0.1-0.2 IP with no damage.  Still, 5 of 12 is good, period, but superlative to get out of your replacement starter.  And 3 DIS is only 25% DIS out of his starts, which is doable, and excusing that first start, puts him at 18.2%.

Cain has been up and down for us, but first his knife cut hurt him, then his hamstring strain.  He has not been able to get on a roll.  Yet with our top of the rotation struggling, relatively, to get their act together, we are still at or close to (depending on the day) the top of the majors in wins.  The silver lining with his missing starts is that his arm gets extra rest that hopefully will pay off later in the year.  He put on a great display of dominance to end 2013, with five straight 5-PQS starts before his elbow injury, then after one MID start, had two more 5-PQS starts.  And previous to his no-hitter, that was what we could expect from him, elite domination.  So as long as he is healthy, it's all good, and hopefully that rest will benefit him late season and hopefully in the playoffs.

As one can see, with small numbers, one bad start for whatever reason can screw up your DOM/DIS stats.  That is why I like to take a view of the alternative numbers so that you can see underlying trends that may (or may not) continue.  Of course, it is always better to up on an upswing than a down one, and I like to note them, good or bad.  So far, the past month or so has been great for the Giants starting rotation, even with Petit bringing things down (but not greatly).  If they can continue this, we will be back to the greatness of the 2009-2012 period in terms of starting pitching.  The only bad note among all this is that our K/9 has not been that strong this season so far, it has usually been elite, top of the NL range, but actually below average, at least for the team, so far.  Still, all in all, the starting rotation is in pretty good shape, and on an upswing for the most part.  This will be necessary for winning the division, as well as going deep into the playoffs.