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Friday, July 28, 2006

Giants Trade Martis for Mike Stanton of the Nats

Many Giants fans are outraged over this trade. Martis had his no-hitter, is 19 years old (like Liriano was), and a world of potential that whets fans lips. Stanton is old and his stats don't look so hot the past two seasons. So I can understand some of the outrage.

But just because we lost Liriano does not make every 19 year old prospect we have the equivalent of him, particularly since he was not even good enough to make the team's top 15 prospect list. Whereas Liriano was good enough to rank in the Top 10 (for BA) when he was traded.

Martis' numbers scream average at low-A ball:

Martis:
Overall: .257/.313/.351/.664 2.5 W/9 6.5 K/9 0.4 HR/9, 2.6 k/bb
On road: .298/.355/.381/.736 2.8 W/9 8.8 K/9 0.2 HR/9, 3.1 k/bb

League:
Overall: .255/.332/.377/.708 3.5 W/9 7.7 K/9 0.7 HR/9, 2.2 k/bb
On road: .262/.340/.387/.727 3.6 W/9 7.6 K/9 0.7 HR/9, 2.1 k/bb

The only numbers that stick out is his W/9 and HR/9 rate is much lower than average and his k/bb is pretty good. But his K/9 rate is not that far off from average, either way, and the batter's hitting line against him is not far off from the league despite his very low HR/9 rate. This suggests that he's been giving up a lot of 2B's to make up for that low HR/9 rate, which could mean his SLG could explode if the hitters figure out how to make those 2B into HR's, which, if they are good prospects, they should do eventually.

Martis' numbers above does not inspire confidence. As young as he is, he is at the level he should be, Ron Shandler's book says that ideally top prospects of his age should be at low A-ball. And he is rated as, at best, a middle of the rotation starter by Shandler's companion prospect book. He is averarge or slightly above average compared to the league across a number of key stats, it is not like he is a top pitcher in the Sally League at the moment and yet all this angst over losing him?

As much as people want to denigrate Stanton, he has been an OK reliever during his career. 3.82 lifetime ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 3.4 W/9, 2.1 K/BB, 0.7 HR/9. His 3 year (2003-5) stats are not that far off: 3.93 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 3.6 W/9, 1.8 K/BB, 0.8 HR/9. And one can make the argument that his recent stats have been very depressed by pitching at RFK, though obviously small samples: in 39.1 IP at RFK, 5.49 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 5.0 K/9, 2.7 W/9, 1.8 K/BB, 0.7 HR/9.

Stanton is the old relief war horse, the one that Worrell was suppose to be but then had his injury. The classic veteran ballplayer that Sabean covets for his playoff battling teams. While I will miss the enjoyment that a prospect like Martis might become, there have been other prospects at higher levels who have been more exciting this season.

Don't know who gets dropped off 40 man, perhaps another trade is in the works (Wright? With Hennessey or Correia taking over?). If it is someone off the 25 man roster, then Sanchez does not necessarily go down with Stanton coming on. We will see what else unfolds, Sabean said the 72 hour window is when teams stop asking for the world and you can bargain better with them in designing a trade.

3 comments:

  1. Martin, I don't see what all the fuss is about. This seems like a pretty minor trade - an A ball, not particularly hard throwing pitcher for a middle reliever. Big deal. Milwaukee fans, on the other hand, have a right to be upset, with the Brewers dealing Cruz, their best OF prospect.

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  2. I should add, Cruz was hitting over 300 at AAA.

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  3. It seems like the most minor of trades in the world. Sabean wanted another veteran in the bullpen, and gave up next to nothing to get it. Sanchez needs a break, so he can move to the back of the bullpen while the old guy eats up relief innings. Certainly nothing worth tearing one's hair out over.

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