The Giants traded Patrick Bailey to Cleveland for a AA pitcher, Matt “Tugboat” Wilkinson and their 29th overall pick in the upcoming draft. Here is one of NBC’s accounts of the trade and this is MLB’s report.
ogc thoughts
Shocking bold and aggressive trade by Buster Posey. Stunning, per some reports.
As I wrote in an earlier post on my blog, Posey has been very bold and aggressive with his moves as PBOps. Per reports, the Giants actually thought about sending Bailey down to AAA early last season, even before this season’s struggles. So they have been unhappy for a long time now.
Clearly, the Giants believe in what Susac (presumably the new starting catcher) and Rodriguez could do as the catching tandem. MLB prospect reports noted that Susac is rated 55 for arm and 50 for defense, is athletic for his size (6’4”) and that he runs a pitching staff well. For now, Eric Hasse is the veteran catcher who will work with the rookies in acclimating to what being a MLB catcher means (and I’m sure Posey has advice as well).
Obviously, the defense takes a huge hit. But nobody was expecting Gold Glove defense from Bailey when he was promoted, hopefully there is something Posey saw that Susac could over achieve at or develop over time. And the offense looks to be greatly improved, just because Bailey has been so bad that although he’s still as good defensively as he was in prior seasons, his offense was so bad that he’s at 0 fWAR.
Why Cleveland See Value in Bailey
And why 0 fWAR is valuable to the Guardians is because that’s a huge improvement for Cleveland, whose starting catcher was on a -2 or -3 fWAR pace. So they upgraded 2-3 fWAR with the trade, and if Bailey can revert to his hitting of last season, it is a 5-6 fWAR upgrade. Huge value for them, might be enough to push them into the playoffs with this move, if Bailey can hit like last season.
That’s probably why they traded an interesting prospect as well as a draft pick. Tugboat Wilkerson (he looks like his nickname, he’s a stout guy) is a 23 YO starting pitcher in AA, with 1.59 ERA in six starts and 2.82 ERA in the minors so far, 55 starts in total, 11.8 K/9 and a great 3.63 K/BB ratio. More importantly, dropped his walk rate to 2.9 BB/9 this season, for a better 4.0 K/BB ratio. He has some deception in his pitching motion, as he is known for his “invisi-ball” fastball per MLB.
Despite these interesting pitching stats, he was never named to Cleveland’s Top 30 Prospects list by MLB, as he was a 10th round pick and doesn’t have good velocity or any great pitch. He is an interesting prospect but not a top prospect. He is more of a throw in to give the Giants more of a return for a two time Gold Glove catcher.
Another 2026 Draft Pick is Huge Get
Still, the more exciting part of the trade for me was getting the #29 pick ($3.27M slot) of the 2026 draft.
Along with the #4 pick, that gives the Giants a total of $17.35M total bonus pool, which they can go over by 5% or $850K. Keith Law of The Athletic said that there is a good set of HS prospects who are first round talents who could fall out of the first round but get drafted later for above slot bonuses. The Giants could get a good college player with the 4th pick, then take a chance with a later pick (or two) on a HS prospect.
I would expect the Giants to use the #29 pick on a prospect they really like who happened to fall down to them at that pick, whether college or HS. There are some thought by some that there is some depth of talent in this draft, and perhaps some of that quality falls to this pick, but if not, they can pivot to taking their pick of HS prospects who fell.
Giants Catching Might Be Okay Enough
I will miss his great defense, and worry that the Giants will too, but Susac and Rodriguez have been so much better hitters. And Posey made the decision, so I have to believe the defense won’t crater, and would be at least average, which with better hitters, would be close to what Bailey would produce in fWAR, and better if the hitting holds up.
Susac projects to be about average defensively as a starter, so if he’s a better hitter than projected, then he could approach what Bailey provided, by being a slightly above average defensive player but much better hitter. ZiPS (and others) actually projects Susac to be about one win above average, at a full seasonal rate, so there is that as well.
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