Your 2024 Giants: Second Half Musings

With the second half starting up, and talking with other fans, some thoughts came up.

Ogc thoughts

With 65 games left, and a 47-50 record, a playoff spot does not seem very possible, with five teams that the Giants need to leapfrog over.

Offense is Much Improved

The first thing I would note is that the offense is much improved since Helios Ramos was promoted, and started producing.  Since May 8th, when Ramos joined, the Giants have averaged 4.8 runs scored per game, and in the past 27 games, they have scored 128 runs, which works out to 4.74 runs scored per game. 

In 37 games to start the season, they averaged 3.70 runs (137 runs scored), for an average of 4.4 runs scored overall.  So the offense has jumped from 3.70 RS to 4.74 RS, a 28% increase.  Nobody except for Ramos is hitting beyond what could be expected, and so far, he's been able to maintain this pace for two months,

Pitching Is Yet To See

The Starting Pitching ERA was 4.49 in the first half.  Which is not much worse than the relievers, but that is polluted with the starters who were bulk relievers in Opener games.  Unfortunately, there is no way to split that out except by force.  

Pulling out the pitchers stats and separating out the ones used as starters generally, and those as relievers, I get 4.67 ERA for SP and 4.09 ERA for relievers, for a total overall 4.41 ERA.

Looking at the second half, looks like Harrison, Snell, Ray, Cobb, Hicks, Birdsong, and Webb will be the starting pitchers overall.  Hard to guess how many innings, so I took the ERA projections from Fangraphs, using FGDC, Steamer, ZiPS, and ATC for the seven pitchers and divided by 7. That estimate is on the high side because Birdsong is not going to start all that many games, with the main rotation being Webb, Snell, Ray, Cobb, and Hicks, with Harrison getting a bunch too (or in tandem with someone) and Birdsong a few (plus perhaps in tandem with someone).  

Here are the projected ERA from the four projection systems:

• FGDC:  3.88 ERA
• Steamer:  3.77 ERA
• ZiPS:  4.07 ERA
• ATC:  3.89 ERA

So, using 4.74 RS as the projected offense, and adding 0.37 Unearned Runs to each ERA to get the full RA, and assuming the relievers are about the same, I get these winning percentages using Pythagorean:

• FGDC:  .550 winning percentage = 36-29 or 83-79
• Steamer:  .562 winning percentage = 37-28 or 84-78
• ZiPS:  .530 winning percentage = 34-31 or 81-81 (ZiPS currently projects Giants at 81.5 wins, FYI)
• ATC:  .549 winning percentage = 36-29 or 83-79

So this is in line with a lot of the preseason talk about the Giants, that they would be around 81-85 wins for the season.  And 83 wins got a team into the wild card last season.   

I would also note that the projections for Snell makes sense for his career:  3.53, 3.43, 3.63, 3.55, respectively.  But if he has a great second half, which is what he normally does, and say, gets his ERA down to 3.00, he could end up at 9-3 in his starts, then we only need to be 27-26 in the other games to get to 83 wins, 29-24 to reach 85 wins.

So it still looks touch and go for the Giants in making the playoffs, but if Snell can be Snell of 2023, it would make the job a lot easier.