One of the great developments of this 2024 Giants season is the break out of Heliot Ramos. But, as great as his early start was, his BABIP was unsustainably in the .400’s, which even the greatest hitters in MLB history has never sustained over a full season, so I expected a fall, though to still good (800-ish OPS) from great (over .900). I thought I would reinvestigate his stats now that he seems to be sustaining a great OPS, and see what his numbers look like now.
Especially since he was named to the All Star NL team just the other day. He's the first home grown Giants OF to make the All Star game as a Giant since Chili Davis did it some 40 or so years ago. Some call it a curse, some call it a streak, I just call it an anomaly due to Sabean focusing the Giants on pitching since he took over in 1997.
ogc thoughts
Looking at his game log, there are some distinct phases in his hitting evolution this season.
Cold Start
In his first nine games, he hit .281/.343/.344/.687, with 12 strikeouts in 32 AB, which is not a great contact rate (63%, where good is 85%, and NL average is 75% right now). Leading to an unsustainable BABIP of .450, but whereas such a start in seasons past might have relegated him back to AAA, the Giants kept him in the lineup.
First Hot Streak
In his next 26 games, he took off, hitting .343/.422/.648/1.069 with a .422 BABIP. He still was striking out too much, with 33 strikeouts in 105 AB (69% contact rate), but with more walks, 14. He also had 9 homers in 105 AB, a homer every 12 AB, which is a 50-55 homer seasonal ace. While BABIP is unsustainable, dropping it to .322 would still leave his overall OPS around.800-ish, plus or minus, which is still good in this season where the average NL OPS has been bouncing around .700 OPS.
Second Cold Streak
Then in the next 10 games, he was frozen, .122/.200/.220/.420 with .138 BABIP, but increased contact rate, with 11 strikeouts in 41 AB (73% contact rate, which is nearly average). But his BABIP is way too low, and bumping that to .338, which is doable if he’s a good hitter, would still push him to above .800 OPS, much like how adjusting his hot streak downward to account for BABIP luck would drop him to around .800, so despite the poor actual results, he looks like he’s improved his performance level.
Latest Hot Streak
In his last eight games, he’s hot again, with a .394/.432/.636/1.069, .440 BABIP, only 7 strikeouts in 33 AB, improved strikeout and contact rate (79% contact rate, which is above average). Again, adjusting for BABIP would drop him into the 800’s OPS still.
Overall Thoughts
Ramos has clearly broken out. Not as broke out as .900+ OPS, because those BABIP's will have to go way down to normal human standards, but an OPS around .800 OPS, plus or minus, is a good starter to have in the lineup. In his 45 games since May 18th, after his slow start, he has hit .302/.374/.548/.922, with an outstanding .356 BABIP.
He also started hitting homers in this stretch. With 12 homers in 179 AB, which is roughly (at 600 AB), it is a 40 homer seasonal pace. With 71 games left to play, and he has averaged around 4 AB per game played, if he continues at this home run pace, he'll reach 31 homers for the season, which would be a first for a Giants hitter since Barry did that long ago.
While high, it isn't that far from his .366 BABIP in AAA in 2024 and .368 BABIP in AAA in 2023. He also was at .300 BABIP in AA and .375 BABIP in AAA in 2021. In 2019, he had .385 in Advanced A and .339 in AA. His only bad season was in 2022, when he had a .283 BABIP in AAA. He has been a high BABIP hitter for most of his career, and overall in AAA, .331 BABIP.
Dropping this 45 game BABIP to .331 would take off 25 points from OBP and 46 points from SLG, dropping him to around .851 OPS, which would be great to get from him going forward. And is looking more and more sustainable as he keeps on hitting well.
Thus the 2025 outfield looks to be Matos in LF, Lee in CF and Ramos in RF, and set for most of the rest of this decade. And I think it will be in good hands.
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