The Modern MLB Rotation Chaos Portfolio Theory is the name I've given Farhan Zaidi's management style for modern MLB rotations, which is basically, letting chaos reign, but ending up with a good starting pitching success.
I've derived the name from my finance training, cribbing from the Modern Portfolio Theory. From Corporate Finance Institute: The Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) refers to an investment theory that allows investors to assemble an asset portfolio that maximizes expected return for a given level of risk. The theory assumes that investors are risk-averse; for a given level of expected return, investors will always prefer the less risky portfolio."
The idea behind this theory is that one can create a portfolio of assets that are high risk, but with sufficiently independent industries and market factors, the overall risk of the portfolio is much lower, because, under this theory, one industry going down is just as likely as another going up, and thus the risks cancel each other out, reducing the risk of the overall portfolio.
The idea for the Modern MLB Rotation Chaos Portfolio Theory is similar in concept, in that the risk of any particular pitcher being injured or not very good may be high, but when you have enough pitchers on your team who are projected to be good (in this case, better than the NL SP average ERA of 4.56) when healthy, your 162 starts per season is covered by your portfolio of potentially injured, but usually good, starting pitchers.
ogc thoughts
I didn't like the strategy at all when I first saw the Dodgers attempt this rotation chaos, which I so named because, to me, relying on injured pitchers or young pitching prospects results in chaos for your rotation, and that's why I don't like this strategy, because then it is random who is available to pitch for you during your most important portion of the season, October, the playoffs. I would proffer the Dodgers lack of success in winning it all during this historic run of NL West dominance as evidence of that.
Still, it has been a great strategy for building a powerful set of 162 Games Starting Rotation vs. the traditional attempts for a 5-man Rotation (where most teams have only 2-3 good starters, qualified starters who are above average ERA is a very lacking commodity in the MLB, for example).
The Proof is in the Results
In 2015, Zaidi's first year as GM, he signed two pitchers known more for their injuries resulting in them not pitching full seasons, than for them being good, which they are when healthy: Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson. McCarthy ended up injured, but Anderson pitched the full year and well. And LA's starting rotation ended up 2nd in the NL.
This continued year to year, with pitchers like Kent Maeda, Hyun Jin Ryu, Julio Urias, Rich Hill, Ross Stripling, Walker Buehler, even Clayton Kershaw was an injured player more often later in his career. Young, old, journeyman, and the Dodgers finished 2nd, 5th, 1st, 1st with Zaidi as their GM (Giants were 8th and 10th just before Zaidi become the Giants PoBOps) in terms of ranking in the NL for Starting Pitching.
Since Zaidi has left, the Dodgers have been 1st, 1st*, 1st, 1st, 9th, while the Giants have been 13th, 11th*, 3rd, 3rd, 4th. (* 2020 Exhibition season). Zaidi has improved the Giants ranking starting with very little talent, cobbling together a better rotation over time, anchored by Logan Webb. He has found starters off the trash heap who contributed each season, and even with the 2023 Giants having a 1.5 man rotation (Webb plus whenever Cobb was healthy enough to pitch) and utilizing a ton of openers, the team still ended up 4th in ERA for Starting Pitching.
I don't like it, but I can't argue with the results. And it appears that going forward, the Giants goal is to build a rotation of aces who can handle most of the load of a full season, so I'm okay with this strategy while our young pitching prospects develop, mature, and gain experience, especially Kyle Harrison, Carson Whisenhunt, and Hayden Birdsong, who all have reached AA by or before age 22. Doing that is an accomplishment, and thus put them on my radar.
Sidenote: Openers
While I'm on the topic, I thought I would go over the logic of Openers and share what I've learned. I've never bothered to learn the intricacies of Openers, because I didn't see the value of it, but because the Giants used it so much in 2023, I finally sat down and thought it through. It's an ingenious way of manipulating the lineup order to your team's advantage.
One well publicized fact that has been promulgated in recent years is the idea of pitchers getting beat up the third time facing the lineup. While there are still good pitchers who can still pitch deep into games like Webb, what teams are realizing is that many pitchers are good enough for the majors, but not good enough to beat the top of the lineup. This creates a big underbelly of pitchers who are borderline in the majors, forced to be short relievers or considered AAAA pitchers. Enter the opener to unlock this value.
While these pitchers have trouble with the top of the lineup (in the 2023 NL, the OPS by lineup position was .801 leadoff, .769, .778, .789 for the cleanup hitter), they could better handle the bottom of the order .751 for fifth, .716, .701, .664, .661 for ninth). So the beauty of the Opener is that you find a good reliever who can handle the top of the order (that's why Tampa Bay Rays used Sergio Romo so much as an opener, this is basically the description of a good set-up man) and he should take care of the first 3 to 5 hitters, then the bulk/featured reliever (the borderline MLB pitcher, of which there are many) comes in and start facing the lineup, but at the bottom of the lineup, which is the key fact here.
Normally, this starting pitcher would face the top of the lineup after 18 batters, and end up facing 18-20 batters (look at the Dodger's usage of Rich Hill, he almost always stopped there, even if he's pitching great) and be taken out, at roughly 4 innings pitched. However, the bulk reliever on the third time through the lineup, faces the bottom of the line for the third time, and there's a reason the bottom of the order has an average OPS of roughly .700, they aren't that good at hitting.
So the team can get an extra inning out of this heretofore useless 4 innings starting pitcher, and get 5 innings from the bulk reliever, and between the opener/bulk combo, eat up 6 innings or more, like a good starter would.
Modern MLB Rotation Chaos Portfolio Theory: 2024 Giants
The Giants appear to be using this theory for building their rotation that handles starting 162 games. Giants fans are getting crazed demanding that Zaidi sign Snell, Montgomery, or both, but right now, after injuries to Teng and Hjelle, plus the aneurysm that Beck required surgery for, along with Cobb not available for Opening Day and Ray looking like he'll be returning after the All Star Break, the Giants appear to be leaning on their roster of still healthy pitchers, most of whom are not only unproven MLB pitchers, but have not even pitched in the majors or much in the upper minors. So fans are desperate.
The idea appears to be this: if you have enough pitchers who combined, have the expectations of being okay or better MLB pitchers for N% of the season, and the sum of these add up to at least 162 games, then your rotation will be covered for most of the season with good pitching, and end up near the top rotations. But as we saw in 2023, there is a downside to this, with all the openers.
But some Giants fans are funny. The Opener objectively gave the Giants the ability to compete for the playoffs last season. Unfortunately, the offense failed them at the end. If the Giants didn't go with the Opener strategy, which delivered a .500 record (most 4-5-6 starters for teams deliver really bad records) they likely would have been a much worse team.
Let's look at the Angels, who dealt a lot with their worse starters, because they had to alter their rotation for Ohtani. They had to use pitchers like Anderson, Suarez, Giolito, Barria, who all had bad ERA's. Altogether, they got 44 starts and their collective record was 19-25, 5.98 ERA. The Giants were 18-17 with their openers, so if they had similar results as the Angels, they would have instead been 15-20 instead, and would have been 76-86 instead (or 73-89, since the Giants were 3 wins above expected). So they would rather have a worse team than deal with Openers?
Countdown to 162 Starts
So let's go through the likeliest starting pitchers and estimate how many starts each will contribute to the season's 162 games. I'll start with the three starters likely to pitch most of the season.
Logan Webb: 31 Starts
Logan has become an ace level starter the past two years, putting up 32 and 33 starts in the past two seasons. I don't see any reason why, in his age 27 season, to expect any less, the ace usually gets an extra start or two in the second half, when the rotations restart after the All Star break. He's also been healthy since his TJS, and pitching a ton of innings. I see 33 starts at 95% probability, or 31 starts.
Kyle Harrison: 27 Starts
Harrison is the logical second starter as that's his pole postion in the spring starts. He's a whole lot trickier because he's still only 22 YO and only pitched 102 innings in 2023 (28 starts), 113 inning in 2022 (25 starts). In Cain's, Sanchez's and Lincecum's first full season, they each had a start skipped at some point to course correct something that they needed to fix, but Bumgarner never had such an adjustment period. Another clue is his usage by the Giants in the majors, where he averaged 87 pitches per start after his first start, with 4 of those 6 starts in the 90-94 range, facing 20-24 batters, and averaging 5.22 innings pitched.
To say he was handled with kid gloves would be an understatement. The front office seemed to know what they had with him from the beginning and has inched him upward in IP very deliberately. If not for his injury, he likely would have gotten in another month's worth of starts in the majors, roughly 5 starts 25 IP, which would have had him at 127-ish IP total. So I could see the Giants pushing him to 130-150 IP for the season, maybe skipping a start for a instruction break, and by the All-Star break, when the rotation reconfigures, he'll be pushed more to the back of the rotation, especially if Cobb and Ray are in the rotation by that point, and lose one or two starts that way.
It is also possible that he might be shut down like Strasburg was for the Nationals, but it is my feeling that the Giants would try to massage his IP during the season in order to be able to use him in some capacity during any potential playoffs. But I think 30 is a good target, and I believe the total will be more than enough that he might be used less than 30. I would say odds is 90%, or 27 expected starts.
Jordan Hicks: 24 Starts
He's not in the age danger zone like Harrison, as he's in his 27 YO season, but as a reliever, there has to be some concern about stretching him out. One key thing is that he's likely prepped to start this offseason and is being prepped by the Giants to start. And the Giants were able to keep Rodon injury free in his one season here, and hopefully can do the same for Hicks. He's also reportedly fully healthy now, which wasn't true when he was haphazardly thrown into the starting rotation by the Cards in his only (and poor) try at starting before, as they had him relieving in the spring then suddenly threw him into the rotation.
The good news is that there are recent examples of successful relievers converted to starting when they had been pitching relief for most of their MLB career. One is Seth Lugo, whose transition was handled by Melvin and Price last season with the Padres, the other is Gary Littell, whose transiton was handled by the Rays. Then there is Giants Legend Russ Ortiz, career reliever through college and minors and converted to starting.
Littell not only was a reliever, but he was used as a reliever (and a poor one at that) at the beginning of the 2023 season, before being used as a starter at midseason. Lugo was a very good reliever but then was converted, appears to have been able to prepare in the spring as starter. Ortiz was switched and presumably started prepping as starter during off season.
- Lugo: last started most of season in 2017, averaged 5.6 IP; then five years as 3.25 ERA RP
- 2023: started 26 games (most ever in MLB season; 18 in 2017), averaged 5.63 IP and 91 pitches per start, with 3.57 ERA
- Littell: five seasons way up and way down (4.08 ERA)
- 2023: first relieved (poorly), then 14 starts, with 3.41 ERA averaging 5.1 IP and 67 pitches per start
- Ortiz: was reliever in college and minors for two pro seasons
- 1997: switched to SP, started 26 games averaging 5.4 IP per start (141.2 IP)
- 1998: began season in AAA, 10 starts, 5.0 IP per start, then majors, relief then started 13 games, averaging 5.8 IP per start (100 pitches per start, but different era of handling pitchers)
If he was younger, I would expect the Giants to baby him more, but at 27, his body should be mature enough to handle the additional work, much like the pitcher examples above. 30 starts at 5 IP average seems like a good enough target, but given the examples above not reaching more than 26, 80% odds or 24 starts.
Now, altogether the Top 3 is at expected 82 starts for the season, or half the season, roughly. That means the Giants need to get another 80 starts. Many fans are worried about the disaster scenario of both Cobb and Ray being unable to come back and provide any starts, so it would be informative to next go over what the Giants pitching prospects might provide in 2024.
Base 2023 Stats for Comparing Giants Prospects
To understand how the Giants are seriously considering using a whole bunch of young prospects as possible rotation options in 2024, one needs to understand some basic facts.
- Average NL ERA = 4.38, Average NL SP ERA = 4.56
- Average Giants ERA 4.02, Average Giants SP ERA = 4.12
The Giants have already removed pitchers who were around and above the Average NL SP ERA in Wood, Stripling, Manama, and DeSclafani. Fangraphs has the Giants SP projected for many of the possible prospects expected to be part of the solution of contributing to 162 starts:
- Webb: 3.41 ERA
- Cobb: 3.75 ERA
- Ray: 4.06 ERA
- Harrison: 4.15 ERA
- Hicks: 3.90 ERA
- Winn: 4.20 ERA
- Black: 4.23 ERA
- Beck: 4.46 ERA
- Teng: 4.51 ERA
- Hjelle: 4.50 ERA
- Roupp: 4.11 ERA
- Whisenhunt: 4.25 ERA
- Birdsong: 4.78 ERA
- Seymour: 4.64 ERA
All of them are considered starters and the way these ZiPS projections work, about half will do better than projected, and the others will do worse. One can see this in the chart below, 49% of the pitchers projected beat their 50th Percentile projection for ERA+ and 51% of the hitter projected beat their 50th Percentile projection for OPS+.
So one can expect 50% of projections to be at least as good as projected. Not a big deal when you are looking at one or two projections, but when you are dealing with a dozen, you get the normal distribution happening. You don't know which 50% will be as good or better, hence the chaos in who is in your rotation at any time, but you can count on the fact that a good number of them will be as good or better.
I didn't include IP because that's part projection, part guess as usage in the season, not a projection of what they can throw in the majors in 2024. I'm going to cover each pitcher's possible IP usage based on recent usage and reasonable increases in usage. We have 14 potential starters above (plus any surprises who rise up quickly from the 2023 draft and other surprises from prior drafts, as there are some like Murphy and Ragsdale).
Remember, these young inexperienced guys aren't expected to be top or even middle rotation starting pitchers. They are expected to fill in the back of the rotation, where most teams have replacement level players or worse (like the Angels with their 5.98 ERA in 44 starts). The MLB has had this problem at least since I noticed this during the Dynasty Era (2009-2016), and it has only gotten worse.
MLB is Lacking Qualified Starting Pitching
To show that Zito had some value during his tenure with the Giants, I would often show Fangraphs Qualified Pitchers Leaders list. With 30 teams, dividing that into this number gives you an idea of how many good enough starters are in the majors. Doing this shows how rare a commodity it is to have a starting pitcher who can pitch enough innings to qualify for postseason awards.
For example, in 2010, Fangraphs listed 92 pitchers (Zito was 62nd in ERA), meaning that there was only enough qualified starters for 3 on average per team. And with a 4.15 average ERA for MLB starting pitchers, only 62 SP were at least the average ERA (yes, Zito was average). Thus, qualified pitchers were scarce, but ones with above average ERA were even more so.
Of course, there were some pitchers (like Bumgarner) who pitched well but didn't qualify, but not all of them continue to be good either. These qualified pitchers were good enough that their teams put them out there for enough innings to qualify. FYI, the Giants had four of these starters in 2010 (Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Zito) and they were all above average except for Zito.
It is now much worse. In 2023, only 44 pitchers qualified, roughly 1.5 per team. Teams are scrambling to fill out the rest of their rotation, with the more advanced ones utilizing Openers to maximize the value of the pitchers who are borderline. The Giants, however, have a multitude of pitchers who are not only projected around average (4.56 ERA in 2023 for NL SP), but is projected to be significantly better.
ZiPS Projection System 50th Percentile Meaning Explained
Now the way Dan Szymborski tests his ZiPS projections accuracy, is that he has Percentile Ratings for each player that he projects. Here is the one he developed for Jung Hoo Lee (FYI, these percentiles are not available for every player in Fangraphs, this was released in an article on Lee; I would guess that he makes it available for the writers on Fangraphs, and for paying customers, that is, teams):
| Percentile | 2B | HR | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 44 | 14 | .339 | .396 | .496 | 147 | 4.8 |
| 90% | 40 | 12 | .325 | .386 | .476 | 137 | 4.3 |
| 80% | 36 | 11 | .314 | .373 | .456 | 128 | 3.6 |
| 70% | 33 | 10 | .304 | .364 | .439 | 122 | 3.2 |
| 60% | 31 | 9 | .295 | .356 | .427 | 117 | 2.9 |
| 50% | 29 | 8 | .288 | .346 | .416 | 111 | 2.5 |
| 40% | 27 | 7 | .280 | .339 | .398 | 105 | 2.1 |
| 30% | 26 | 7 | .270 | .330 | .385 | 99 | 1.7 |
| 20% | 24 | 6 | .258 | .323 | .371 | 93 | 1.3 |
| 10% | 21 | 5 | .242 | .305 | .351 | 84 | 0.7 |
| 5% | 19 | 4 | .230 | .291 | .332 | 75 | 0.2 |
The goal of his forecasting projection system is to find the numbers where each player is likely to surpass, at that percentile rating. Thus, the 50% Percentile forecast is the stats any player would beat 50% of the time, and the 90% Percentile forecast is the stats that any player would beat 10% of the time (thus falling into the 90% percentile of players).
Applying this to Jung Hoo Lee, 38% of players beat or achieve their 60th Percentile forecast, and if he does that Lee is hitting at least .783 OPS with a great .356 OBP, generating 2.9 WAR, which is an above average player. And 72% of players beat their 30th Percentile forecast, which for Lee is .715 OPS and 1.7 WAR, which means basically average player. So it appears pretty likely that he'll be at least average, and a good chance that he could be above average.
Thus, the projections for all the pitchers above, it can be expected that around half of them will beat their projections and half won't, 50/50. I'll be using those odds in the following sections on the prospects.
Mason Black: 15 Starts
Mason is the next man up right now, given Teng's, Beck's, and Winn's unavailability right now. This is probably why so many Giants fans are up in arms and arguing that the Giants must sign Snell or Montgomery (recent rumor is that he wants 7 years at his age...). But it's not like Black isn't ready for the spotlight.
In 2023, Black started in AA, and had 16 starts, 3.57 ERA, 3.9 IP per start, then was promoted to AAA, and had 13 starts, 3.86 ERA, 4.7 IP per start. So he started 29 games, and likely could have averaged 5 IP per start, had the Giants been more aggressive with his usage early in the season, but still ended up with 123.2 IP. Adding 30 IP to that (roughly adding 1 IP per start), would get him to 150+ IP in 2024, which is roughly 30 starts at an average of 5 IP, which at 50% is 15 starts towards the 79 starts we need to fill. He's projected at 4.23 ERA (NL SP ERA of 4.56, Giants SP 4.12)
Keaton Winn: 14 Starts
Reportedly he'll be ready by OD, so I'm slotting him to be the 5th starter when the season starts, and usually the team don't need the 5th starter immediately, so that should buy him some more time to prepare himself for the season. Projected at 4.20 ERA, he's similar to Black in terms of projected talent for 2024.
In 2022, when he mostly started, he had 25 starts and 108.0 IP (4.32 IP/Start), and in 2023 he had 19 starts and 100.1 IP (roughly 5 IP per start, but there were some relief appearances). He can give roughly 140 IP in 2024, perhaps more, since he'll be 26 YO and past the pitching danger zone of 25 and under, they could decide to use him for more. At 140 IP, that's 28 starts (at 5 IP/start), and at 50% that works out to 14 starts, giving us 29 starts, which means we need 51 more starts.
Landen Roupp: 13 Starts
Based on the reporting, I would say that Roupp is the next pitcher to consider for starts. However, that possibility is more in the later part of the season, as the talk is that he might make the team as essentially the tandem starter who would help fill innings in the middle of games, as Harrison, Hicks, Black, and Winn might be on a short leash in terms of innings pitched, depending on how well they do in pitching efficiently (which historically, Harrison and Hicks had periods of bad control, though their recent MLB efforts have been good, about 3.0 BB/9).
He also missed a large part of the 2023 season due to back injury, ending up pitching only 10 starts and 31.0 IP, after 14 starts, 107.1 IP in 2022, which essentially appears to equivalent to 26 starts, as, in spite of 12 relief appearances in A ball, he still averaged 3.5 IP per appearance. Assuming he's healthy enough, and likely starting the season as a tandem reliever, he can get to 26 starts (or equivalent) during the season, and at 50%, 13 starts, bringing us to 42 starts and 38 more to fill out. With a projected 4.10 ERA, he's likely to be the next man up if Black or Winn should experience any problems (falling into the lower percentile results), but being 25 YO, they might decide to treat him with kid gloves.
Alex Cobb: 25 Starts and What If
The above covers for the month of April, easily, and we haven't gotten to the others being considered for roles, like Ethan Small and Daulton Jefferies, but Alex Cobb's return keeps on being moved up. First it was something in April/May, then got conservative and it was late May, but news from spring training has been streaming constantly for him, and now he's possible for April, so I thought with 37 starts to fill, this would be a good spot to cover him.
If he should return by the beginning of May, he's likely to be able to start at least 25 games (roughly 5 starts per month, for 5 months). If he's so healthy that they are moving him up in terms of returning, presumably he's doing well with his pitches, and look to be healthy and productive, and he pitched well last season finding his hip issues, so he's also capable of pitching well when not fully healthy. And if he can start 25 games, then there's only 13 more starts to fill, and there are plenty of pitchers who could fill in: Teng, Beck in late season, Hjelle, plus Ray will be back latte in the season too, problem filling out the 162 starts is done.
So let's suppose that Cobb and Ray have the disaster scenario that some fans have and doesn't given us many starts. Then who are the pitchers who might contribute to filling out the final 38 starts?
Tristan Beck: 5 Starts
He had a great chance to show off how good a starting pitcher he could be and ended up getting operated on for an aneurysm in his arm. He is expected to be back in August, which would make him available for 10 starts, so that's another 5 starts possible. 4.46 ERA puts him as viable as a back of the rotation guy, and still better than the average NL SP, which averaged 4.56 ERA.
Kai-Wai Teng: 16 Starts
Teng did well in the minors and has gotten some notice. He is projected to be about as good as Beck, with an ERA of 4.51, so he's also very viable as a back of the rotation guy. He's averaged 28 starts and 131.1 IP the past two seasons, and at age 25, should be able to extend that up to the 160 IP range, so he's capable of 32 starts, which at 50% is 16 starts expected.
That's 21 starts out of 38 starts needed, leaving 17 starts to account for.
Carson Whisenhunt: 6 Starts
Whisenhunt prospect stock sky rocketed in 2023, putting him on Top 100 prospect lists. MLB Pipeline had his among their top LHP prospects, and rated his changeup the best among prospects. All of which is not surprising given that he made AA by age 22, which only the better prospects do, and he did well in AA. He's really young this season at 23, but if he can pitch well in AAA this season (likely given that he's projected at 4.25 ERA, which is pretty good for back of the rotation, with the Giants SP ERA at 4.12 and NL SP ERA at 4.56.
He only pitched 16 starts in 2023, for 58.2 IP, when an injury ended his season at the end of July, so he's probably limited as to how many innings he can accumulate in 2024. I can see the Giants advancing him like they did with Harrison in AAA in 2023, then the majors by mid-season, he had 7 MLB starts and likely would have had 12 starts had he not been injured right when they were about to promote him. At 50%, that's 6 starts and leaves us at eleven starts.
Other Potential Starters
Most likely, we won't be getting down to these other names. Cobb and Ray should be able to provide at least 6 starts each, which covers the eleven. Still, I wanted to name them, because the depth in the Giants system is startling to me, once I started naming and checking on them. Here, I'll name them and their projected ERA, plus most starts in a season and most IP in a season 9keep in mind, average NL SP ERA is 4.56):
- Sean Hjelle: 4.50 ERA, 22 starts 122.0 IP
- Ethan Small: 4.55 ERA, 21 starts, 103.0 IP
- Daulton Jefferies: 4.55 ERA, 16 starts, 92.0 IP
- Trevor McDonald: 4.98 ERA, 13 starts, 101.1 IP
- Spencer Howard: 4.52 ERA, 15 starts, 49.2 IP
- Hayden Birdsong: 4.78 ERA, 25 starts, 100.2 IP
- Carson Seymour: 4.64 ERA, 23 starts, 112.2 IP
- Ryan Murphy: 4.72 ERA, 27 starts, 107.1 IP (2)
- Carson Ragsdale: 5.13 ERA, 24 starts, 113.2 IP
At two starts each, that covers the rest of the starts in the disaster scenario of Cobb and Ray not providing any starts. They would not provide equivalent type of performances, obviously but no team can replace ace level starting pitching from their farm system.
Speaking of replacing ace performance, some Giants fans are using the possibility of Webb not being available as a reason to get Snell, but these people don't seem to know his history, nor how good Webb has been. Webb has a 3.07 ERA over his past three seasons. Snell has achieved that ERA in only 2 of his 8 seasons in the majors, even he hasn't been a Webb replacement for the vast majority of his career. His peak is two great Cy Young seasons, but he's been worse than Webb for the other six seasons.
Rotation Chaos
Ideally, you have at least four starters you can count on for good to great starts and ERA's. That was the basic formula during the Dynasty Era. The Giants are trying to move into that direction with their collection of starters this season, but with two major surgeries forcing two of the best starters to the sidelines on Opening Day, we can expect nothing but Rotation Chaos, especially given that we will be introducing potentially up to a handful, and perhaps more, of prospects to the majors. But I'm excited about this potent mix of rotation chaos, it's perfectly okay for a team rebuilding itself, which many Giants fans are forgetting, and demanding playoffs or bust.
We obviously have one ace to count on for the next few years in Logan Webb. He has been a horse, and is becoming a great example and Yoda already with the waves of new pitchers coming to the majors, starting with Kyle Harrison, who is hopefully his co-ace for the next five or more seasons.
Harrison is hopefully either Lincecum 2007 or Lincecum 2008 (not Cy Young, but knowing how to pitch well in the majors). Lincecum needed to figure out his stuff in the majors in 2007, and he was still about average over the season, but busted out in 2008. Harrison will likely be still figuring things out, or if we are lucky, busting out with a good to great season (like Bumgarner did in his first season; Cy Young is the potential future, but he probably has a lot of things to learn before that happens, and it may never happen). If he can stay healthy, he should reach co-ace status with Webb sooner than later.
Meanwhile, we have Ronnie Ray, former Cy Young winner not that long ago, in 2021, who is recovering from his TJS. Most pitchers recovering from TJS tend to come back as good as ever, which is what the Giants are hoping for. Whether he fully recovers this season or not is the bigger question, some pitchers need extra time to regain their stuff. And this matters in his case because he has an opt out clause which he can use after this season, else he opts into a two-year, $50M contract with the Giants. Ideally, he does well enough but not great, and he opts into the contract, and then become an ace for the Giants the next two years, unless an extension is worked out after the 2025 season.
Also, there's Jordan Hicks, fireballing converted reliever to starting pitcher. A 3-digit starting pitcher would be great to mix in there with Webb's groundball-sinker ways and Harrision's lefty strikeout dominating ways. He's entering his prime years for baseball, and we've seen examples of good (and bad) relievers who ended up doing well as a starting pitcher over a full season. Upper end of the spectrum, maybe he can become a young ace (hey, the Giants helped Gausman become one) to go with Webb and Harrison.
Lastly, Alex Cobb, who brings up the rear mainly because he's an oldie but goodie. He's been able to pitch well while handicapped with hip pains, and now he's freed of that pain, but likely still pitching well. But at his age, each year is a mystery. Still, he's at least likely to pitch as well as he did last season, given that he feels healthy and not affected by his hips.
So we have this great chaos, just with our top 5 starters. We can have anywhere from one to five ace level starting pitchers by the end of the season. Meanwhile, with Ray out for most of the season, and both Harrison and Hicks unproven as to pitching a full MLB season as a starter, we will likely be using rookies and inexperienced major leaguers to pick up starts, maybe here or there, maybe constantly, if there are a lot of issues. Chaos.
After that, the Giants have 15 pitching prospects and minor free agents on hand to pick up starts for the team. I listed them and the vast majority of them are projected to be in the mid-4's ERA. Which is an okay ERA to have in the back of the rotation (see again above my discussion of the value of Barry Zito in the back of the rotation, and the issues teams have with filling starts at the back, with even average starters), and the Giants can chose from 15 different pitchers over the season, starting with Winn and Black, and then progressing through these options (of course, 40-man space will be a limit, so the Giants might need to determine who to DFA before promoting another pitcher). More chaos.
This is not a great strategy for when a team is consistently a playoff contender, because then you will have a random rotation available when it is time for the playoffs, and not necessarily a great rotation that will power you through and deep into the playoffs. But it is great for a team that is rebuilding itself into a regularly contending team.
I see 2024 as a transitional year as the team figures out which young players are the core for the future, and then can sign free agents or trade their young excess talent to fill their gaps in their team and core. 2025 should be the year the Giants are out of rebuilding and into hard core competing, especially if Harrison, Lee and Hicks are able to prove themselves this season as good MLB players.
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