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Saturday, January 13, 2024

Your 2024 Giants: Crossing Jordan Hicks - Signed for 4 years, $44M

The Giants signed reliever Jordan Hicks for 4 years, $44M, and he will be given the opportunity to become a starter with the Giants.  

ogc thoughts

Hicks is a good reliever, having a career 3.65 ERA, but has been horrible as a starter, 8 total starts, 5.47 ERA.  So what's the deal?  It's about a win-win deal.

The Giants bullpen can use another strong arm in the bullpen, Hicks throws 3-digit heat.  He had an excellent 3.29 ERA with 2.53 K/BB ratio in 2023 as a reliever, and he would pair up nicely with the setup men of the Rogers twins, providing a third look before the Giants go with Doval as the closer.

Details are not fully out yet, but I would think that he will get a shot in spring training, when all pitchers are airing out their arms and getting ready for the regular season.  So here's the scenarios I see.

If he's as bad in Spring Training as he was before as a starter, he would get placed in the bullpen, which is a win for the Giants bullpen.

If he's good in Spring Training, but not as good as Beck, Winn, or Stripling (Harrison would have to fall flat on his face to not be in the starting rotation), he would get placed in the bullpen, which is a win for the Giants bullpen.

If he's better in Spring Training than one of Beck, Winn, or Stripling, he would get to start, and that's a win for the Giants starting, plus whoever lost will likely be the tandem starter or featured reliever in Hicks starts, as he's probably only capable of 1-3 IP initially anyway (he would need to build up his stamina, as well as prepare his body for starting, which the Giants team of specialists should be helping him survive a full season, given his injury history, much like they helped Rodon survive a full season healthy), and that should then be a strong combo.  If he can provide starts in the low 3's ERA, that's a good starter, and presumably they will build him up carefully.

4 years at $11M per season is a good price for a good reliever as Hicks, and he'll be only 27 next season, so we got his 27-30 YO seasons under contract.  If he proves to be a good starter instead, it is a huge bargain to have him as a starter.  Even if they determine that he's only good enough for 3 IP (given his injury history), that's a great opener, eating up a lot of innings in great performances, much like Hader.  

Even if this repeats each season, we have similar win scenarios as outlined above, just repeated for the next season.  This is a great imaginative deal made to secure a great reliever, and perhaps a good starter.  Either way, the Giants added a great pitcher to the pitching staff.

Of course, the risk is that he injures himself and we have some dead money. Well, that's a risk with most players anyway that we could sign.  Most likely, we have a great reliever and perhaps a great starter, I like taking risks for upside.  


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