Your 2024 Giants: Jung Hoo Lee is the Giants new CF

As announced and formally presented in the Friday press conference (seems prudent after last year to wait), Jung Hoo Lee has been signed to a six year deal for $113M with a player opt-out after four seasons. Per Andy Baggarly of The Athletic (subscription required):

Lee will receive a $5 million signing bonus and receive salaries of $7 million in 2024, $16 million in 2025, $22 million in 2026, $22 million in 2027, $20.5 million in 2028, and $20.5 million in 2029. He also has the right to opt out of his contract after the 2027 season.

They will also pay nearly $19M in Posting Fee to Lee's former team, the Kiwoom Heroes. Thus, they are paying out $132M for him, over the life of the contract. And the $19M does not get reduced if he should opt out after 2027.

There are a few other good article on Jung Hoo:

• Fangraphs: 2024 Top 50 MLB Free Agents
• Lee has been evaluated as a Top 100-quality prospect at FanGraphs since the 2020 KBO season. He is an incredibly skilled contact and defense-oriented outfielder with an important baseball lineage.
• Jung-Hoo’s career began in precocious fashion, as he was the first player in KBO history to go straight from high school to their top level of play; he won Rookie of the Year as an 18-year-old in 2017. Since arriving in the league, Lee has a career .340/.407/.491 line, has made elite rates of contact (roughly 5.5% K% and 11% BB% combined the last two seasons), and has had a couple of years in which he also hit for meaningful power. 
• Lee’s carrying tool is his Jedi-esque bat control, which he uses to deflect pitches all over the strike zone to all fields. His swing is incredibly cool and fun to watch, as Lee’s open stance comes closed very early before he takes a huge stride back toward the pitcher and unwinds from the ground up... His hand-eye coordination and ability to manipulate the barrel is amazing, however. 
• Hitters in Asian pro leagues tend to face premium velocity less often than upper-level domestic prospects and it creates a wide error bar in projecting whether or not their hit tools will translate. Using Synergy to isolate Lee’s performance against fastballs at or above the MLB average (93 mph and up) yields just 154 pitches combined throughout the last two seasons; he slashed .268/.348/.415 against them. Bump the bottom boundary up to 94 mph and he slashed .276/.300/.379 across 96 pitches. 
• If Lee doesn’t end up hitting for power, his center field defense will help buoy his overall contribution to a team. He’s a plus runner with above-average range and ball skills, and a plus arm. ... The most likely forecast is somewhere in the middle, and here Lee projects as a table-setting center fielder without much pop, though whatever the case, teams should be prepared to make a multi-year project out of Lee so he has time to adjust in the same ways Ha-Seong Kim has.
• Fangraphs: International Professional Players
• Current Superstars includes Jung Hoo Lee
• Fangraphs: Giants Finally Make a Free Agent Splash with Jung Hoo Lee Signing
• Lee immediately becomes the best defensive center fielder in a crowded Giants outfield group that was toward the bottom of the league in production last year. He’s a plus runner with above-average range and ball skills, and a plus arm. 
• The scouting and data-oriented projections for Lee are both quite strong, befitting a player who just signed a nine-figure deal. Here are Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections for Lee:
• ZiPS Projection – Jung Hoo Lee
• Year         BA  OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ DR WAR
• 2024 .288 .346 .416 476 56 137 29 4 8 62 39 38 2 111 1 2.5
• 2025 .288 .348 .422 486 58 140 30 4 9 63 41 38 2 113 1 2.6
• 2026 .287 .348 .420 488 58 140 30 4 9 63 42 38 1 112 0 2.6
• 2027 .281 .343 .409 487 58 137 29 3 9 62 42 37 1 108 0 2.3
• 2028 .282 .345 .412 478 57 135 29 3 9 61 42 36 1 109 0 2.3
• 2029 .281 .344 .406 463 54 130 28 3 8 58 41 35 1 108 0 2.2
• Those are the numbers of an above-average everyday center fielder. With this level of production, per Dan, ZiPS would recommend $132 million for a straight-up six-year deal. 
• ZiPS evaluates $113 million with an opt-out after four years as having the same value relative to projections as a six-year, $134 million contract.
• Readers should consider him a contact-only threat at the moment, but he has rare hitting talent, and it’s plausible that with added strength, a swing adjustment, or some other developmental intervention, the Giants could coax more power out of him over time. Here you can see what ZiPS thinks the high-end outcomes look like if that happens:
• 2024 ZiPS Projection Percentiles – Jung Hoo Lee
• Percentile 2B HR BA  OBP SLG OPS+ WAR
• 95%                 44 14 .339 .396 .496 147     4.8
• 90%                 40 12 .325 .386 .476 137     4.3
• 80%                 36 11 .314 .373 .456 128     3.6
• 70%                 33 10 .304 .364 .439 122     3.2
• 60%                 31 9 .295 .356 .427 117     2.9
• 50%                 29 8 .288 .346 .416 111     2.5
• 40%                 27 7 .280 .339 .398 105     2.1
• 30%                 26 7 .270 .330 .385 99     1.7
• 20%                 24 6 .258 .323 .371 93     1.3
• 10%                 21 5 .242 .305 .351 84     0.7
• 5%                 19 4 .230 .291 .332 75     0.2
• It may take a little time for Lee to adjust to the quality of big league stuff, but his glove will play right away. His signing brings an element of youth and excitement to the team that the Giants have lacked for the last few seasons.

Your 2024 Giants: Ohtani to LAD, Giants Potential Next Moves

I read the news today, oh boy, about a lucky lad who made the grade:  The Dodgers signed Shohei Ohtani to the biggest MLB contract ever, 10 years at $700M.  Saw some comments that some of it is deferred, but for payroll tax penalties, the only thing that matters is AAV, and that's $70M AAV.

Your 2023 Giants: Harrison's Comparisons

I’m giving thanks for Kyle Harrison.  Kyle Harrison was the premier prospect for the Giants in 2023, and he did not disappoint, getting over early struggles to force his way into the majors. While his MLB ERA and long-ball weakness was not good at all, his overall stats - hits, strikeouts, walks - were excellent for a new prospect, and reducing the long ball to normal standards would mean he's at least an average starting pitcher. 

He is hopefully the ace we need to lead us during this decade. His stats in the minors remind me of Lincecum, particularly his dominance of hitters. And he came in not knowing hitters, but striking them out at elite levels, while not walking many.  With him and Webb atop our rotation, we’ll be competitive for a long while, health permitting.

In this post, I want to see how similar aged pitchers with similar MiLB pitching line stats did in prior seasons, to see how these pitchers with similar results did in the majors subsequently.

Hey Zaidi! My Baseball Business Plan: Pitchers Produce more WAR than Position Players

Happy Thanksgiving!  What people don't really realize about WAR is how much is contributed by the good to great pitchers vs. the position players on a per game basis.

Your 2023 Giants: To Zaidi or Not Series - Zaidi is in love with Platoons and Openers

The Giants fanbase, from the view of The Athletic's comment pages for the Giants, are in an uproar about Farhan Zaidi's stewardship of the Good Championship Giants.  The Zaidi Haters complaints include but are not limited to:

• Five years is enough to rebuild a farm system and the team
• 2023 season was a disaster
• The farm system has not made any progress
• They are not as good as Texas, LAD, Atlanta, etc.
• Zaidi is in love with platoons and openers
• Zaidi can't sign the best free agents; there's no stars
• What's the plan?

This is the sixth in a series examining each complaint.

Your 2023 Giants: To Zaidi or Not Series - Farm System

The Giants fanbase, from the view of The Athletic's comment pages for the Giants, are in an uproar about Farhan Zaidi's stewardship of the Good Championship Giants.  The Zaidi Haters complaints include but are not limited to:

• Five years is enough to rebuild a farm system and the team
• 2023 season was a disaster
• The farm system has not made any progress
• They are not as good as Texas, LAD, Atlanta, etc.
• Zaidi is in love with platoons and openers
• Zaidi can't sign the best free agents; there's no stars
• What's the plan?

This is the fifth in a series examining each complaint.

Your 2023 Giants: To Zaidi or Not Series - 2023 Success

The Giants fanbase, from the view of The Athletic's comment pages for the Giants, are in an uproar about Farhan Zaidi's stewardship of the Good Championship Giants.  The Zaidi Haters complaints include but are not limited to:

• Five years is enough to rebuild a farm system and the team
• 2023 season was a disaster
• The farm system has not made any progress
• They are not as good as Texas, LAD, Atlanta, etc.
• Zaidi is in love with platoons and openers
• Zaidi can't sign the best free agents; there's no stars
• What's the plan?

This is the fourth in a series examining each complaint.

Your 2023 Giants: To Zaidi or Not Series - Lacking Free Agents and Stars

The Giants fanbase, from the view of The Athletic's comment pages for the Giants, are in an uproar about Farhan Zaidi's stewardship of the Good Championship Giants.  The Zaidi Haters complaints include but are not limited to:

• Five years is enough to rebuild a farm system and the team
• 2023 season was a disaster
• The farm system has not made any progress
• They are not as good as Texas, LAD, Atlanta, etc.
• Zaidi is in love with platoons and openers
• Zaidi can't sign the best free agents; there's no stars
• What's the plan?

This is the third in a series examining each complaint.

Your 2023 Giants: To Zaidi or Not Series - What's the Plan?

The Giants fanbase, from the view of The Athletic's comment pages for the Giants, are in an uproar about Farhan Zaidi's stewardship of the Good Championship Giants.  The Zaidi Haters complaints include but are not limited to:

• Five years is enough to rebuild a farm system and the team
• 2023 season was a disaster
• The farm system has not made any progress
• They are not as good as Texas, LAD, Atlanta, etc.
• Zaidi is in love with platoons and openers
• Zaidi can't sign the best free agents; there's no stars
• What's the plan?

This is the second in a series examining each complaint.

Playoff PQS: Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks Path to World Series

After Merrill Kelly's great start and reading about his long and winding road from the U.S. to Korea and back to the U.S., I thought I would investigate the two teams battling it out for the World Series championship and see how their starting pitching's PQS results have contributed to their reaching the World Series.

As I've shown in prior posts about the playoffs, having pitchers who threw DOM PQS starts was a significant success factor in winning games and moving to the next series.  Since all that analysis was done with the original PQS, I'm going to continue to use that methodology here.  If I can ever figure out how to automate pulling all the playoff starts and automate the calculations of PQS, I will investigate creating my own PQS, and building research on that.

Your 2024 Giants: Alex Cobb Surgery

It was recently announced that Cobb will get hip surgery to fix the problem he had all season. The Giants have a buy-out option with Cobb for the 2024 season, they can buy him out for $2M or sign him to a $10M deal.  Normally this would be obvious, given his performances the past two years, to sign him, but it is complicated by the fact that he likely will need six months to recover, which should take him out to at least the start of May, if not longer.

Your 2023 Giants: Ohtani, the White Whale

As with any superstar free agent, Ohtani is likely to not sign with the Giants. But I don't think it would be out of the realm either. Here are some of my thoughts on what it would take to sign him.

Also, as many of my posts goes, this went long: it is also a discussion of the positives that I see with the Giants roster and future. While the past couple of years have been disappointing, the Giants appear to me to be on the cusp of breaking out and being a serious contender for the intermediate term, if they can acquire at least one key component (a good cleanup hitter) and ideally two (another ace starter).

Lastly, I started this post thinking I needed to finish by the end of the World Series, as that was when I expected the Giants to announce their next manager. Because Bob Melvin was named manager, I finished it up and published it now, adding a note where I left the content unchanged and noting the hiring.

Your 2023 Giants: It's Deja Vu All Over Again with Ann Killion

I generally love reading Ann Killion, but sometimes, she is way off.  I once responded in my blog when she questioned the future plans of the Giants under Sabean.  Here she goes again, this time in the Chronicle, questioning Zaidi.  

Your 2023 Giants: To Zaidi or Not Series - Five Years!!!

The Giants fanbase, from the view of The Athletic's comment pages for the Giants, are in an uproar about Farhan Zaidi's stewardship of the Good Championship Giants.  The Zaidi Haters complaints include but are not limited to:

• Five years is enough to rebuild a farm system and the team
• 2023 season was a disaster
• The farm system has not made any progress
• They are not as good as Texas, LAD, Atlanta, etc.
• Zaidi is in love with platoons and openers
• Zaidi can't sign the best free agents; there's no stars
• What's the plan?

This is the first in a series examining each complaint.

Troubling News: Brian Bannister Left the Giants

As reported by various media (MLB.com for example), Brian Bannister left the Giants Director of Pitching position for the White Sox's Pitching Advisor position.  

Your 2023 Giants: Harrison returns

Harrison is back, and hopefully found the tweaks necessary to reduce the homers. I wrote most of this as a comment on The Athletic before his start today, didn't change a thing based on his performance.

Harrison is here, best time of year!

Kyle Harrison is here, ready for his major league debut.

I wanted to write more but life has been busy, so I’m going to share a few thoughts, then add an addendum to give more details.

I think Harrison is a future ace. His strikeout rate is elite in the majors, and that is a rate that translates well into the majors, from my experience watching prospects matriculate to the majors. 

I’m not that worried about the walks. One, that was early season, explained by him adjusting to the ABS system. Two, no walks last two starts. Three, his K/W ratio is very high and his k%-w% is very high as well, which is a sign that as high as his walks are, he is so elite at strikeouts that the walks won’t matter. 

I did some reasoning why that worked when Dirty was a prospect but don’t remember now, I will need to dig up and share in the addendum. But the basic idea is that at above 9 k/9, you are talking one strikeout per inning, leaving, say, a walk every 3 innings, and so it is harder for the other team to manufacture a run off that walk, with all the strikeouts.

I’m excited but know that not all prospects produce at once. But with his dominance, deceptive pitching motion, and stuff, I’m hoping his short 10 start MLB season (10 turns of rotation left), will be as successful as Cain’s 7 start start to his career, but midfielder of Cain’s struggles the following season.

Cain is a good comparison, in terms of build and stuff, he has Bumgarner’s deception, and Lincecum’a strikeout abilities. He can be a monster for us.