Your 2023 Giants: To Zaidi or Not Series - Lacking Free Agents and Stars

The Giants fanbase, from the view of The Athletic's comment pages for the Giants, are in an uproar about Farhan Zaidi's stewardship of the Good Championship Giants.  The Zaidi Haters complaints include but are not limited to:

• Five years is enough to rebuild a farm system and the team
• 2023 season was a disaster
• The farm system has not made any progress
• They are not as good as Texas, LAD, Atlanta, etc.
• Zaidi is in love with platoons and openers
• Zaidi can't sign the best free agents; there's no stars
• What's the plan?

This is the third in a series examining each complaint.

ogc thoughts

Okay, I'm going to tackle the complaint about Zaidi being unable to sign the best free agents, and that there are no stars.

Carlos' Were Stars

People like to conveniently forget, or deny by semantics, but the Giants had Carlos Correa signed sealed and delivered, IF they would have overlooked the fact that his health report showed that you might be better off setting $300M on fire to generate energy and get a better return than committing to Correa.  

Also, Carlos Rodon was signed to a $21M contract, so I'll lean on semantics as well, if that's not a star salary, I don't know what is.  He also had a low 2 ERA the season before the Giants signed him, which is what stars do.

Stars Are Coming

Stars also being developed in Kyle Harrison and Marco Luciano, but development takes time.  People like to ignore them, but it's like the 2007-2010 period, people ignored Cain, Lincecum, Bumgarner, Posey, until they became Giants stars, but prior to becoming stars for the Giants, they were highly ranked prospects, especially Lincecum, Bumgarner, and Posey, I recall them being in the Top 20-40 rank area.  

Both Harrison and Luciano were not only ranked highly, but also did well this season.  Harrison, moreover, was the top ranked LHP for most lists. If that's not a star in the making, I don't know what is.

Sure, the proof is in the pudding, so I get the worry about prospect failure, but too many Giants fans compare failures by prospects who were Giants Top 10 (or 30) prospects (like Ortmeier, Bowker, and Freddie Lewis), which happens a lot, with prospects who were ranked in the Top 40 overall rankings, and fewer of those fail (though Angel Villalona did), and many succeed if they were able to continue being a good player in AA and AAA.  

At minimum, instead of saying that there's nothing, at least acknowledge that Harrison and Luciano are star material, which they most certainly are, and are very close to producing.  Harrison should be an ace within the next two seasons, based on the stats he compiled rising up the minors.  I think only injury is his only obstacle, given he's just 21 YO, and his body is still maturing.  

Luciano, also 21, is probably 2-4 years away from being a good star player, but he has a big bat (with limited opportunities, he was still among the hardest hit balls in multiple places), and Sandoval's power kicked in when he turned 22, so I think Luciano can at least be an average player based on his ability to get walks and the occasional long ball, as shortstops have a lower hitting threshold to be roughly average, where the average OPS is .713, but the median is .700 (he hit .641 in SSS, which is in line with his ZIPS projection of .652; ZIPS projects .668 for 2024, .702 for 2025).  Zaidi has said that Marco is likely the starter for 2024 team (though he still needs to produce in spring training).

Many MLB Stars Aren't Necessary to Winning

Think back to the 2009-2014 period, who were our stars? We mainly had two MLB stars, Lincecum and Posey.  And Lincecum was on the downside of his career already, but we didn't know it, in 2010, so we really only had one, Posey.  And while he won the MVP trophy, as well as Rookie of the Year, his stats were not all that eye popping most of the time, he piled up his WAR production through his great defense.

Cain and Bumgarner were more Giants stars than MLB stars. Both were good but not great pitchers, so they didn't get a lot of national media love, at least until Bumgarner did his 2014 run and Game 7 triumph.  The Giants never had an abundance of MLB stars.

Free Agents Aren't Always the Best Investments

Also, people are forgetting the lessons of Benitez, Zito, Rowand, Renteria, Cueto, Samardzija, and Melancon:  they don't always produce as expected.  

Many Giants fans are pointing out Marcus Semien and Corey Seager as examples to follow.  The Rangers got really lucky:  both had peak seasons in 2023.  Semien, at least, had produced seasons of 8.5 bWAR and 7.1 bWAR before producing 7.4 bWAR in 2023, after only producing 5.7 bWAR the season before. Still, it was his highest produced since his 2019 8.5 bWAR.  Seager had a career best 6.9 bWAR, his highest since his 2017 5.3 bWAR.  And he more than doubled his production in Texas, from the year before, 3.9 bWAR in 663 PA to 6.9 bWAR in 536 PA (0.59 bWAR/100 PA to 1.29 bWAR/100 PA).  

The Ranger's 2024 is like the Giant 2011, when they had Huff produce so well in 2010 that they had to keep him, although it was likely that he would regress some. I would not expect the two of them to produce at least 15.6 bWAR in 2024, which means a decline for them in those two positions.  They will need their young players to progress and make up for expected declines.

Giants Are in Pursuit of Stars, In Any Case

Still, the only way to improve a team is to take chances on free agents, and the Giants seem to understand that, landing Correa last season, before it blew up because of his hidden health problems, and announcing pursuits of Yamamoto and Jung Hoo Lee.  

I'm hoping the Giants can sign a star hitter (at minimum) this off-season. My target is Cody Bellinger, who hits well while playing multiple positions at a high level.  He'll initially be the CF, but will play other positions to keep up his skills, and he can move to another position if he's blocking any prospects, like Matos, from taking CF; CF is a tough position anyway, and I would like to see him transition to a less demanding position in order to preserve his bat.  It's a big risk, but they need to improve on their clean-up hitter spot, where they only got .680 OPS last season.  If it pleases the doubters, his situation is similar to Seager

In the likely case that we cannot sign him, I'm hoping the Giants will at least sign Matt Chapman to start at 3B in 2024 and beyond.  He hits well, at .750+ OPS last two seasons (he's been up and down all his career, month to month, so the complaint that he didn't hit well at the end of the season doesn't seem to be a sign of the end; I would give him more rest early in the season, maybe that will help his bat later in the season, also it's hotter in the east late in the season, and mild in SF, so that might help too). Moreover, he's great defensively, whereas Davis was one of the worse DRS on the team, and is good enough defensively that it should help Luciano out when he's playing SS.

We need an upgrade all around in CF, and the CF from Korea, Lee, is someone the Giants are pursuing seriously as well, sending their GM Putila, to attend his last game in Korea.  Bellinger can play a corner OF position or 1B, and could rotate around, so that others can play, should they be able to sign both.  But Lee or Kiermaier would be good backup signings assuming Bellinger ends up elsewhere. 

And we need ace starters, at least one more.  The more the better for our pitching rotation and pitching staff.  They appear to be pursuing Yamamoto seriously, having Zaidi show up for Yamamoto's start in the NPB championship series.  If not him, there is Snell, Montgomery, and Nola, as well.  I hope they look into Sonny Gray as well, who being on the older side, we won't have to commit to longer than 3 seasons.  

The Giant have the money, plus have built up a nest egg over the past few years, based on the profits estimates that Forbes said that they made.  Money should not be an obstacle, the team was ready in 2023, but unfortunately Correa's ankle injury was hidden, else the Giants could have pursued another free agent hitter instead.  

I hope that they at least are trying to entice Ohtani, but the odds has to be so low, that I thought about what about the Giants might appeal to him, if those are factors he highly rank, and wrote a post on that (and ruminated on what the Giants need to try doing, in order for him to decide on the Giants).  

Ideal Free Agent Targets

If it was just dream signing, obviously we sign Ohtani to DH and hopefully nurse back to ace level for 2025.  Per estimate on The Athletic for hitters, it would take 12 years, $520M ($43.3M/season).  Just him alone should put us back into playoff range, since we were around .500 last season, and 84 wins got a team to the World Series. But clearly we need more.

We also need to greatly improve CF, and if we sign Ohtani, who is rumored to sign early (and that makes sense, he wants historic contract, and once there are free agent signings, less teams can afford him), we don't need a Bellinger type as much, so we pick up Jung Hoo Lee to play CF for 4 years, $56M ($14M/season).  

Matt Chapman at 3B is a clear upgrade (he has averaged 4 bWAR the past couple of seasons) and would only require a 5 year/$95M contract ($19M/season).  He would also cover for Luciano who is slotted to start for us, putting less need on defense from him.

On the pitching side, ideally we pick up two starters.  First, of course, would be Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who The Athletic estimates will need 7 years/$203M ($29M/season). Once we get him, then I would add Sonny Gray, for only 3 years/$72M ($24M/season).

Altogether, that's roughly $129.3M additional salary in 2024.  And that can be reduced some by backloading contracts, as well as giving a signing bonus, which then spreads the amount over the length of the contract.  So it should be easy enough to get that number under $100M, which the Giants should be able to afford.

Free Agent Probabilities

Of course, we won't get everyone on our wish list.  But I think we can get improvements.

First of all, I believe Yamamoto is gettable, because it should only take money. The Giants clearly is a pitching focused organization, and all the positives the Giants would appeal to Ohtani, especially their ability to accommodate Yamamoto's likely preference to stick to his normal routine in Japan of pitching every six games, as well as his being THE Japanese star in Giants history, plus proximity of Asian communities and a Japanese native as a coach on the team.

Second, I think Gray is gettable and hopefully we sign him first quickly, which should be encouraging to Yamamoto and other free agents. He's also familiar with Melvin. With him and Yamamoto, our rotation would be Yamamoto, Gray, Webb, Harrison, with Cobb joining mid-season, now there is no need to rush him back, plus Stripling, Winn, Beck in the wings, either back of rotation or featured reliever with a closer, to allow Yamamoto to stick with his usual 6 game rotation, or whatever it is he needs, and everyone will adjust. Though presumably Gray and Webb will continue on five game or so rotation, the Giants demonstrated their willingness and ability to adjust the rotation in 2023 so that Webb was happy, while accommodating Cobb's health situation.  Moreover, getting Gray is imperative, in case Yamamoto ends up signing elsewhere, as the Giants need another ace level starter, so he's probably the highest priority signing, in terms of timing, the way I see it, while Yamamoto is the highest priority overall, only because Ohtani is so likely to go elsewhere.

Third, I would sign Chapman for 3B. Again, the earlier the better, because then it's clearer to the top free agents that the Giants mean business about improving.  Davis was just bad defensively there, and Schmitt was just bad offensively, and Chapman would be a huge improvement offensively and defensively, thus, overall.  He is another good bat and lengthens the lineup.  And his great defense there will help to protect Luciano at SS, and allow him to concentrate on hitting.  Chapman played for Melvin not that long ago, as well.  

Fourth, the Giants should be able to get Jung Hoo Lee for CF, the money is not that bad, and they clearly are strongly interested in him.  But they should keep Kiermaier in mind if Lee signs elsewhere, as they need to greatly improve CF.  

And that's basically what I saw as ideal above, without Ohtani.  That's only $86M added, so they could then pursue perhaps another bullpen arm (though they could possibly trade outfielders to get one) and perhaps another improvement in a position player (Gurriel?) but nobody seems to stick out for me right now, so I'm open to ideas.  I didn't think of Chapman until Andy Baggarly wrote about him, and he just makes sense.