As I had announced on Twitter, I'm taking a break from social media for a while. Unfortunately, been quite a year so far, first I got laid off, then my uncle suffered from heat stroke and pneumonia, and suddenly I need to take care of him on top trying to find my next job. Once he recovers, he'll be moving in with me, and I have zero idea how we are going to do it, but we are going to man up and do it for him, he's been a great uncle.
While on my break, I'm probably going to think about whether I'm going to continue to do this going forward. The thrill is gone, as the song goes. I've not felt the urgency I once had, and that has shown in my blog's output in recent years, and especially this season. My posts will become even more random.
Also, I thought that after 3 in 5 and 8 good seasons, that fans would be more understanding of the need to rebuild, but the vitriol I've seen hurled at Sabean and Barr and Tidrow, the architects and implementers of the Giants Dynasty, just really depresses me. Seeing these entitled, know-it-not-at-all's rage through The Athletic, Twitter, and other places just really makes my blood boils.
I said this about 9 years ago, and that rubbed people the wrong way, but I truly believe it: if you don't thank Sabean and gang for all that they have done for us, and treat them with the due respect that they have earned, then you don't really deserve to enjoy the championships. And going out and dissing them now, when we have zero idea whether or not we have the core of the next winning period - Bart, Ramos, Luciano, Menez, Anderson, Beede, Suarez, D-Rod, Moronta, Miller, etc - is just bad form, and disrespectful. And lazy analysis.
Yeah, it's been a bad few years, but all the people who claims to have seen this since mid-2016 is just delusional and full of B.S., nobody knew then that this bad period was coming, else they would have predicted that Bumgarner would miss significant parts of two different seasons due to weird injuries, and other weird stuff that has happened. And they are lying to themselves when they state that they knew after 2017, because 2017 was a lot better, .500 until September when the team purposefully tanked the season. Nobody saw all of this happening, and if they claim it, they just don't really know how wrong they are.
And I'm tired of trying to show these people the light. Because I've realized that they have their mindset and they aren't going to change, no matter what facts you place in front of them. They are right, and they tell me to shut the F up, and throw all sorts of weird accusations at me, that I'm an employee of the Giants, and other stuff like that.
So at some point, I'll restart my blog again. I'll do what I've done all along, illuminate whatever truths I see based on analysis, add in my opinions, because human intellect rules (still) in qualitative analysis, and maybe someone will read my post and enjoy it, and moreover, learn from it, which has always been my greatest aspiration.
I understand completely but I will miss your detailed analysis of things. Best of luck in the real life challenges that face you.
ReplyDeleteThank you, I appreciate your sympathy and understanding.
DeleteBeen pushing for a rebuild since 2017 and you know I'm on the record for that. I was against every trade they made from McGehee and on even when I tried to see the positives in it.
ReplyDeleteSo, we're paying the price in a worse rebuild situation now.
We don't' have Crick or Reynolds and McCutcheon was a fool's trade. Horrible defense and declining LH power in the hardest to hit (for LH's) park in MLB.
Arroyo, who isn't performing well, would be the better option than Longoria who'll be getting paid until 2023. And that's only because you'd be planning to move on from a .499 162WL% 3B because you owed him nothing while Longoria's big contract will force you to (stupidly) keep playing him as he continues his to race to the bottom.
Duffy, who has been hurt the 2 of the past 3 years hit .294, .366 OBP and .727 OPS last year. That's better than anything Longoria has done for us.
Castillo is pushing for a Cy Young and Moore is long gone.
Castillo and Moore were traded before 2017, so your timeline is out of whack with the points that you made. So you'll need to fix up your story the next time you tell it.
DeleteI was against the McGehee trade, but not because of Castillo, because I thought Duffy could be the starter for us. Unless you said that Castillo was going to be a Cy Young candidate, that's just random luck there and thus don't really add to your narrative.
I like having Longoria. With Span traded and the money, we are paying him for 5 WAR production over the 5 year contract, which he should easily earn, it looks like. I personally would have went with Sandoval as the starting 3B, would have been a better experiment than going with both Reed and Joe as starting OF. But Longoria, as a problem, is the least of them, in my mind, because of his superior defense. His main problem is he can't figure out how to hit in Oracle Park, his road numbers have been good. He still produced 1.3 bWAR so far in 2019, even with that bad hitting.
I also didn't care for the McCutchen trade for the reasons you gave, and because I liked Crick, but it did make the team competitive until Cutch was traded.
In addition, had we had healthy Cueto the full season, the season would have been a lot different (he was amazing in April). Also, had Bochy not screwed the pooch on the lineup, by using the wrong guy as leadoff (his leadoff choices would have been better off at 7th, shifting everyone up would have added about 3-5 wins).
But I guess you saw that coming as well, because this change would have changed how the 2018 season would have been viewed, Bochy had the personnel for a better offense, he just didn't manage them optimally. With just a few changes, the Giants would have been up there among NL West division leaders at the end of August, very different narrative than what many people have been saying about how bad the Giants were in the past few years. That would change everyone's story about the last "2.5 seasons".
And I did that with analysis and projection. Because I don't look at things rose colored or bleak. Rarely do players beat the aging curves and in 2017 it became obvious none of our players were going to beat those curves.
ReplyDeleteWell, it's a good thing I'm taking a break, I should stop writing and start reading what you wrote in your blog, as my analysis didn't catch that Bumgarner would be injured two straight years by random injuries, that Bochy would use the completely wrong leadoff hitter consistently, that the Giants would tank Sept 2018, when they used to try to finish up strong anyway, that Zaidi would experiment with two starting positions to start the season (Sabean would only do that with one, and he would have a backup ready to take over if the experiment failed).
DeleteI've been a failure in these ways, as well as other ways here, thanks for reminding me how much I suck, I could use another kick in the teeth.
Not really related to this post, more to the talk about trading away Bumgarner, but I don't feel like writing up a new post, this is just good to know: https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/12/10/18133919/baseball-trades-prospect-rankings-top-50-busts
ReplyDeleteI guess I'll share interesting articles here in my comment area for a while until I figure out what I want to do with my blog.
And I would note that this is similar to the studies that Matt Swartz did for BP and FG, where he found that teams usually know what they are trading away (hence why Evans was fired, and Sabean was not, probably), meaning that they know who are the good players to keep, and trade away the not as good prospects.
Not only did we not know that Bumgarner would be hurt and it would take quite a while for him to come back, we also did not know that Posey would be injured in such a way that it would severely effect his hitting. He still has not completely recovered by any stretch of the imagination. I am in the group that thought that obtaining Longoria was not the greatest idea. I hope he starts to prove me wrong. But, I live in Florida and watched him play a lot, and he never impressed me as being any kind of a disciplined hitter. He played in a band box, and to me seemed like a right handed Belt without the plate discipline. I think Pillar has been a big plus, but he would be a much bigger plus if he could gain any kind of significant plate discipline. Glad that Yaz, Dickerson, and slater are playing nicely. Our back up shortstop, seems to be doing his job as a hitter, but he certainly cannot turn the DP like Crawford. Seems as if the majority of the team was in a hitting slump in the first half of the season, except Pablo. I wonder if the law of averages will have these guys all have better than average second half's of the season. this could bode well in a league where it does not seem as if it will take much to challenge for a wild card position. Best of luck in your personal life. Hope to see you back, with your analysis, sooner than later.
ReplyDeleteYou must be down, ogc, if comments from that snarling dyspeptic, Moses ZD, bother you. Please know that you have my best wishes, and that I have both learned from and been made to think and rethink by your posts, even when I’ve disagreed with them.
ReplyDelete