I haven't written for my business plan in a while, but now have realized that something I've written about before could be incorporated into it. In a previous chapter in my Giants business plan, I discussed how a successful (i.e. successful baseball playoff team) team needs at least two aces if not more.
Since then, I have discussed (and analyzed a number of times) that during the golden years for the Giants rotation, from 2009 to 2013, they had at least 3 starters who were great dominant starters, 1 starter who filled what I called the Zito role and 1 starting rotation spot that ended up rotating among some good and not so good starters. Even with that 5th starter, which basically every team has at least one of, the Giants had Top 3-5 standing in the majors/NL during that period. This post will be the latest entry in my Giants business plan series.
My New Concept: Core Rotation
A rotation with four regular starting pitchers and a rotating cast of 5th starters is the configuration in the rotation that I am calling the Core Rotation, with four starters being the named starting pitchers.
A 3-1-1 (3 DOM - 1 Zito - 1 fifth starters role) configuration is what we had the most of during that golden era. That was the basis of the success of the Giants rotation from 2009-2013, having 3 starters who more likely than not, toss a DOM start on their turn of the rotation, with the fourth starter serving the Zito role, the average pitcher who provides value to the rotation by being a starter you can reliably count on to pitch a full season (innings eater) in a decent way (i.e. an average pitcher).
In a 4-0-1 configuration, instead of a Zito role starter, he's also very likely to throw a DOM start as well. We had a rotation like that with Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Vogelsong. Obviously, a better configuration, and thus I would call this the Ideal Core Rotation.
Example of How a Core Rotation Succeeds
A key concept of Game Score (or PQS, really) is that the pitcher can put the team in a good position to win in their starts with consistently good/great pitching performances. So for my examples below, I am going to look at different scenarios with the Core Rotation, assuming expected results based on DOM starters with a Game Score of 57 in every start: that was the Game Score for Stratton after 14 starts in 2017-18 (most of this was written before his bad start against Dodgers; I don't really count that anyway, he came back from maternity leave, after viewing and taking care of his family after his wife gave birth, he must have been severely sleep deprived); teams getting that Game Score from their starting pitcher won 64% of the time.
Hypothetically, suppose we had a Core Rotation with Zito role (3-1-1), assuming Zito at .500 (in his Giants career, Zito had a 4.62 ERA, with the Giants going 96-101 in his starts), and the top 3 are 57 Game Score starters. Assuming the ace and #2 would get the extra starts (33 each), the top 3 starts would result in a 63-35 (.643) team record, the Zito role 16-16, for a Core Rotation team record of 79-51. For the 5th starter, the team would have to go 11-21 to reach 90-72, 16-16 (or basically another Zito) to reach 95-67.
In an Ideal Core Rotation with four 57 Game Score starters (4-0-1 Core Rotation), that's 130 starts for the four starters, or a 83-47 (.638) record. Thus, for the fifth starter, the team only has to go 7-25 for a 90-72 overall team record, 12-20 for a 95-67 team record. Which shows how a team can do really well with a great Core Rotation.
Thus, one can now see the power of having a strong rotation, a Core Rotation, as it would drive the team to have a great winning record (whether with Zito role or not), and thus requiring not that great a record in the 5th starter role, whomever fills that position. Obviously, having good pitching is clearly an advantage, but this post gives scenarios that illustrate exactly what the advantage could be, had the team had a rotation with Game Score 57. Plus, it would require not that much from the offense, in order to be playoff competitive. And, obviously, it would give the team a huge leg up in the playoffs over teams with lesser starting rotations. Altogether, having a Core Rotation would make it easier to win during the season as well as in the playoffs
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