ogc thoughts
I was just thinking earlier yesterday, what would the Dodgers need to do if Giants go .500 rest of the way. The Giants have 94 games left after yesterday's loss so that would mean going 47-47, and if they did that, they would end up at 90-72.
Dodgers would need to go 54-39, or .581, a 94-win-seasonal pace, to keep up. Of course, they went bat crazy last season, near the end of June, June 21st when they were a puny 30-42, and into game 17 of the Puig era, in which they went 7-10 WHILE he as hitting 1.251 OPS. They then played .803 ball (130-win seasonal rate) over the next 66 games, where Puig hit .322/.393/.506/.900, good but not great, it was Hanley being on fire and their pitching, both starters (under 2 ERA collectively) and bullpen (under 1 ERA collectively), that led to their surge. I've got to think that such surges are very rare and unrepeatable.
And the Giants aren't likely to finish the season going .500. Let say they finish up the season at a 90-win pace, then they would finish up the season 52-42 and end up at 95-67, which is more realistic since 1) only Hudson is severely out-performing what he is expected to do (Hicks too I guess, but ZiPS forecasted him for .202/.263/.342/.605 and he not far above that, .182/.297/.359/.656 and falling as we speak) 2) we have been making do with Blanco & Colvin since losing Belt for half of the season so far 3) and both Posey and Sandoval has been underperforming compared to their expected production. Then the Dodgers would need to go 59-34 or .634, a 103-win seasonal rate, which is even more unlikely.
Of course, no lead is insurmountable. But this shows the level of difficulty for the Dodgers to take the lead from the Giants in the NL West. Still, I love the attitude of the Giants, they are not complacent, they just go out there looking for the win.
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