As reported by the various local reporters, the Giants were able to avoid arbitration with three of the five players eligible for arbitration. They reportedly signed Gregor Blanco for $2.525M, Tony Abreu for $745K and Yusmeiro Petit for $845K. Blanco reportedly twittered that he was thankful that the Giants kept him around for another year and hope that it is not the last. He has one more year of arbitration. Also, Petit's deal includes performance incentives.
The two who have not signed are Brandon Belt and Joaquin Arias. MLBTradeRumors estimated that Belt would get $2.4M and Arias would get $1.2M. Baggarly estimated $2-3M. Belt is a super-two, and thus will have four arbitration years. Haft reported that Belt filed for $3.6M while the Giants countered with $2.05M. Meanwhile, Arias asked for $1.5M and the Giants offered $1.1M.
ogc thoughts
Not too surprised most were signed. The Giants have an excellent record of signing players without having to meet with the arbitrator (only AJP did, but that was Colletti's fault for offering too low). Their M.O. is usually meeting the player half-way between the two figures, so that means that Arias turned down $1.3M and Belt roughly $2.8M.
Was surprised that Arias did not sign. Particularly since I felt that he had a bit of a down year. Maybe he signs for $1.4M.
Belt, wow, he's asking for a lot, particularly for a Super Two. TradeRumors usually takes into account past wins and circumstances. Not sure where this will go. Perhaps like Lincecum, $2.0M for 2014 and $3.5M for 2015, using the two figures as the guidance for the contract. I'm still hoping the Giants sign Belt long-term this spring training, cover his four arbitration years and maybe get 1-2 of his free agent years, much like Bumgarner.
I will bet that both will sign before the scheduled arbitrator meeting. Arias should sign pretty soon, they should not be that far apart. Belt will probably be a last minute thing given the difference. Hopefully that springboards into an extension sooner than later.
Arias signed: http://www.csnbayarea.com/giants/source-giants-hand-multi-year-deal-valuable-bench-piece
ReplyDeleteTwo years, $2.6M plus performance incentives (probably related to number of games played). The $1.3M per season worked out to the mid-point of the Giants $1.1M offer and Arias' $1.5M ask, and this contract covers him up to his free agency eligibility.
Typically players just sign for the mid-point with the Giants in these lower salary contract situations, but I guess Arias wanted a little more security, so while the Giants got the $1.3M they were seeking, he gets two seasons guaranteed, to give him more security.
This is a low risk move on the Giants part, barring severe injury, he should be about the same as he was the last two seasons, and they have salary certainty now for him in 2015 as well, you never know, we could lose someone, he could step in, he'll be 29 YO this season, many players finally broke out in this age range, finally putting everything together. I know, unlikely, but just as unlikely that he'll just turn horrible too, particularly since a lot of his value is derived from his defensive abilities.
Now only Belt to go. The more I think about this, the more I see this as similar to the Lincecum situation, where maybe they go two years, as I laid out at the end above. That would give him security, but then he could have the upside of the last two years. I hope the Giants push to buy him out of his arbitration year at minimum, and ideally buy or option his free agent years.
I think the Allen Craig contract that I had comped against before is still apt. Craig got $1.75M in his last pre-arb year (Belt being Super-Two, would have been in his last pre-arb year, so $2.0M is about right). And he only got $2.75M in his first arb year, which is much lower than what Belt asked for, $3.5M for his Super-Two arb year.
And Craig had much better offensive numbers overall than Belt at that similar signing point, plus MLBTR projected only $2.4M for Belt, so right now, I think the Giants are in strong position to win the decision, if Belt's side is dumb enough to push for the arbitrator's decision. So they would be smart to work some sort of longer term deal with the Giants, where he gets security and the Giants get to control him. But since he wants so much, have to think we can only get two years, not the four plus that I would prefer.