Your 2010 Giants are 18-12: Playing for First Place Versus the 'Dres

As disappointing as losing the series against the Mets was, I think people need to remember some things:

• No bullpen is perfect, but the Giants bullpen is pretty good, if not great.  Sure, Romo lost a couple of games, but look at what he has done in his roughly 1.5 seasons worth of play:  dominance, as in 9.8 K/9, as in only 2.4 BB/9, as in 0.97 WHIP.  Get over it, relievers aren't perfect, sometimes the batter is going to win, otherwise the reliever would have a 0.00 ERA for his career.  
• Sure, it hurt to lose games we could have won but these people are forgetting that we banked a few of those in our pockets during the road trip too, or perhaps they forgot that you normally cannot rely on Aaron Rowand to blast 3 home runs in a short 6 game road trip.  
• The Giants were 6-4 on the road trip.  A winning road trip is always a good thing.
• The matchups did not favor us, in any case.  It could have gone either way, and in this case, didn't go our way, whereas in prior series, it did.  
• 18-12 is still a great record.  In a full season, that is 97 wins.
• And it is not like the Giants are lucky to be this.  With luck, they could be 20-10, which is their Pythagorean record.  They have been this good so far.  
• And all season long, when one guy in the lineup is scuffling, another hitter is hot enough to keep the team afloat.  Sandoval, Uribe, and Schierholtz were the very hot hitters in April, but now it is Rowand hot while those three are scuffling in May.  Molina and Huff have been pretty good for the most part (though it saddened me to see the media pick on the two of them when they were briefly scuffling, I think THAT was very insulting to both), and so was Rowand except when he was on the DL.  
• DeRosa has been scuffling period, though he was adequate for the first half of the games so far (roughly .350 OBP), but horrible since.  I think it is getting time to let Bowker get some starts in LF - DeRosa has never been a full-time starter anyway, he's only been a mostly full-time starter, like Pedro Feliz was for us as our super-utility guy.  And DeRosa, while an OK hitter against RHP, probably would be better off sitting against certain RHP starters.  And Bowker appears to be showing some life in his bat that would be a welcome addition to the lineup, particularly since DeRosa has not delivered any power so far.  
• Also, Sanchez has been recovering from a bad cold, much like Lincecum at the start of the 2009 season.  If he was full-strength for his last three starts (16.2 IP, 13 H, 11 BB, 13 SO, 3 HR, 4.32 ERA), like he was for his first three starts (19.1 IP, 11 H, 8 BB, 27 SO, 0 HR, 1.86 ERA), just imagine what our record would be now.

Game 1:  Wade LeBlanc vs. Zito

If there has been any pitcher who has as good or better than Zito for the past few starts, it is LeBlanc.  And, if anything, he had very bad luck with his BABIP so far!  He was a top prospect for the 'Dres when he was a rookie, and appears to be putting it together this season.  

Was not a highly ranked prospect, however, overall, so it is not like it is expected that he will continue at this low ERA, though if he can keep up his peripherals, he can.  So, did he discover a new pitch that propelled him above others (or finally developed that out pitch, like Brandon Webb did when he was so highly rated as a prospect his breakout year that he wasn't even mentioned on his team's prospect to watch article on their website that spring) or is he just very lucky?  Can't argue with his peripherals so far, you can't luck into that.

And what more superlatives can be thrown towards Zito's way that hasn't been thrown by the media over the past week or two.  Toss-up depending on who is better this particular day.

Game 2:  Clayton Richard vs. Cain

Unlike LeBlanc, not a highly ranked prospect, so he is doing better than the experts thought he would.  His stats and being a lefty, it reminds me of Kirk Rueter, low K's, high BB's, but somehow he crafts a low ERA for the season while barely getting his team into the 6th or 7th inning.  Plus, he handled the Giants in SD when they swept us.

Cain has been his usually good self, though he has kicked it into a higher gear his last two starts.  But so did Richard in his last start too.  Cain also has done better at home than on the road, so that helps too.  However, this is probably a toss-up as well.

Game 3:  Matt Latos vs. Sanchez

Latos was the highest ranked prospect among this trio of young starters, not high enough to gain top 100 status, but he was San Diego's #2 prospect a couple of years ago, so he's pretty good.  Like the other two, if we based things on prospect status, none of the three would have a chance against our pitchers, but so far this season, the three of them have been pitching great.   Yet, he has the worse ERA of the three.  I think that he is closest to his theoretic skill level, based on their prospect status, and he handled the Giants easily when the 'Dres took all three games, as well as pitched his best game of the season in his last start, a superlative game in all ways.

Sanchez has been scuffling due to health problems (very bad cold), but, while his last start did not start out well at all, he was able to regroup and pitch 7 relatively effective innings overall against the Mets.  He should be healthy for this start, should be a good game, another toss-up.  In any case, I think the experience of gutting out the games at less than full strength, particularly the Mets when it was so bad initially that he often tanked afterwards previously, were good character building exercises for him.  

Giants Thoughts

The pitching matchups look like each team has roughly the same chance to win, so this series look like a toss-up, it can go either way.  Thus, I think the key will be our hitters.

The 'Dres have been winning solely because of their pitching.  As great as our pitching has been, their staff has put up comparable if not better numbers (mainly because we have Wellemeyer as our #5 starter) and their hitters have not been doing much of anything.  Only A-Gon and Headley has done much of anything offensively, in terms of OPS.  The rest have been pretty bad and their lineup reminds me of how the Giants lineup looked like last season.  I think that is why their team has gone overboard with their stealing, to compensate for their lack of hitting.  They already have 37 steals, which is probably what we might get in total for the whole of 2010.

So the key for us to win is our hitting, as I think our pitching should be able to keep up their side of the bargain.  San Diego was lucky their first time around because our top of the lineup was messed up by losing Rowand and starting Velez, and Bowker was still not hitting for us.  Now they get to face Rowand while he's hot.  And there are two LHP and Torres has been hot, finally, so that would set up scoring opportunities for the middle of our lineup.  However, Sandoval has been in a slump for the month of May, basically.  

Still, we have been scoring runs relatively easily lately.  Both Molina and Huff has been hitting well, and Schierholtz (and others) have been delivering from the #8 spot enough that Rowand drove in 4 runs in the 6 game road trip besides the 3 runs he drove in via homers.  They averaged 4.7 runs scored off the Mets at their pitchers park home and while they have been hot at home (Giants win snapped a nine-game winning streak at home for the Mets).  If these hitters can keep up what they have been doing, I think they can score enough runs off the 'Dres pitchers to win the series.  

And the winner of the series is who will be in first place afterward.

Go Giants!