Bumgarner's Velocity

Bumgarner pitched today and there were reports all over about his velocity and lack thereof:

• Baggarly noted that Madison was around 86-89 MPH, from his peeking at the radar guns in the scouts section. Previously, he noted that Lincecum was 91-93 and that it was fine for a first outing.
• Chris Haft of sfgiants.com noted that Madison was in the 89-90 MPH range plus noted a plausible reason: "Bumgarner’s fastball was clocked in the 89-90 mph range, a tad slower than his best velocity readings. Then again, pitching coach Dave Righetti advised him not to overthrow. “He said, ’You’re not going to make the team on the first day,’ and that makes a lot of sense,” said Bumgarner, who’s competing for the fifth starter’s spot.""
• Someone at The Hardball Times, Harry Pavlidis, reported that someone directed him to PITCHf/x, which happened to record this start, and Bumgarner's average velocity was 89.3 MPH. That would suggest a range more like 88-91 MPH.
• Keith Law tweeted that: "Bumgarner was 87-88 in his second inning today."

Giants Thoughts

While this is not great news, it is not bad news either. Most important of all, it is not conclusive news.

Most pitchers are not throwing what they are capable of right now. As Haft reported, Righetti's advice to Bumgarner was to not overthrow, so it sounds like Madison took the advice to heart and threw more easily. The estimates are all around the same place, but given that PITCHf/x had him at 89.3 MPH average, it seems like either people's radar guns (which are notoriously inaccurate) are off or maybe people only paid attention when the numbers were lower, as the ranges most people quoted wasn't even above the average recorded by PITCHf/x.

Plus, it's only a couple of innings, in the first start of spring training. Sure, it would have been nicer for that pit in my stomach if he threw low 90's like Lincecum. But it's not like he threw in the low to mid 80's either. Average of 89.3 MPH is not that bad, particularly if he was not trying to throw that hard, but rather was throwing to get back his feel and mechanics.

Too soon to worry, but definitely something to monitor still, and keep the fingers crossed.