The Giants need to get off to a good start on this long road trip. Facing the Pirates could help greatly with that. The Giants have a losing record on the road this season but was one game above .500 in June and July on the road.
If they can win at least two games, that would be great because we then face the Braves and the D-Rox. And we don't play Colorado that well at their home, so it is important that they at least win the series against the Pirates, and hopefully at least split against the Braves, and end up one game above .500 before going to Colorado. Winning 2 or more from the Pirates would make it likely we at least break even before facing Colorado.
But it will be tough as the Giants have been 5-14 against the Pirates in the past few seasons at Pittsburgh. The Pirates have been just as bad as we have been and yet they have been beating us easily. Changing that around would do a lot towards continuing the good play in the season thus far.
Game 1: Tim Lincecum vs. Paul Maholm
Maholm is a good pitcher, but Lincecum is a great one. As long as Lincecum does not have any left over jitters from his poor All-Star outing or feel the need to overthrow because of that poor outing, the Giants should win this game. Still, Maholm has been much better at home than on the road, so it won't be a cakewalk and there is a strong chance we could lose. But with Lincecum on the mound, I like our chances.
Game 2: Barry Zito vs. Charlie Morton
Who? Morton, he of career 5.74 ERA in 20 starts and 4.29 ERA this season, was not that well regarded coming up as a prospect. He has not been that bad this season (though bad last season), but like Zito, don't strikeout that much but walks a little too many for the strikeouts he does get. He also gives up more hits than one would want. Not sure why he ended up being the #2 starter out of the All-Star break, but whatever, that at least gives the Giants an even chance of beating them as he faces Zito.
Zito only has had one start against the Pirates on the road and did OK in that start, 4 PQS start, but only 5 IP. He obviously had the best of worlds and worse of worlds in his last two starts. But he historically turns it up a notch in the second half. Here are his "half" season stats since he joined the Giants:
2007-Pre ASG: 4.90 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, .251 BAA, 5.7 K/9, 1.3 K/BB
2007-PostASG: 4.11 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, .235 BAA, 6.4 K/9, 2.1 K/BB
2008-Pre ASG: 5.62 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, .299 BAA, 5.7 K/9, 1.0 K/BB
2008-PostASG: 4.59 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, .232 BAA, 6.3 K/9, 1.4 K/BB
2009-Pre ASG: 5.01 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, .258 BAA, 6.8 K/9, 1.8 K/BB
As one can see he has done better by almost one full run, meaning he continued this performance, his ERA in the second half of 2009 would be close to 4.00, WHIP around 1.2 to 1.3, BAA around mid-.230, K/9 around mid-7, and K/BB in the low 2's. And before that good last start against Florida and bad last start against San Diego, Zito's stats were slightly better:
2009-Pre last 2: 4.82 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, .255 BAA, 7.0 K/9, 1.7 K/BB
With Zito's elevated strikeout rate and better K/BB this season, he has been suffering from a bit of bad luck with his results thus far. If he can continue to throw well, he should be able to do much better in the second half of 2009 than he had for us previously.
Game 3: Matt Cain vs. Zach Duke
Bruce Bochy said in his pre-game show that Matt Cain threw OK and appears to be healthy. And he will need to be because he is facing Zach Duke, who has a 3.29 ERA this season and probably should been in the #2 in the rotation if not first. Dukes is also much better at home than on the road, so Cain will be battling that as well.
While Cain has been worse on the road, it is not much worse, 2.26 ERA at home, 2.53 ERA on the road. So the Giants have an even chance of beating the Pirates.
Giants Thoughts
The Giants look like they can win this series and probably should. But it will be tough with Zito vs. Morton and Cain vs. Duke. Still, the Giants look like they can pick off two games this series, as the Pirates have an offense as good (that is, bad) as the Giants (4.25 R/G vs. Giants 4.18 R/G) but a pitching staff that is not as good, not by a long shot.
And that will set us up for the Braves series, which would a tough 4 game series, but we would have Sanchez, Sadowski, Lincecum, and Zito starting against the Braves. That would leave Cain, Sanchez, Sadowski against the D-Rox, with the possibility of Randy Johnson replacing Sadowski in Colorado if he really only takes 3 weeks to get healthy, as he says he can. I think that would be a good setup for breaking even in Atlanta, and possibly winning in Colorado, if Sanchez is back to his good pitching performance mode.
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