There are a number of Giants fans who like to bring up PAP and note how badly the Giants are doing in taking care of their young pitchers. I thought I would bring up the opposing view again, plus bring up some Baseball Prospectus content that people might not be aware of, since it's in a book, and give another view of the situation, using BP's stance in the book.
PAP Smeared
First off, Bill James doesn't like PAP, which he noted in a chapter in his book, "The Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers". I can’t do James justice, but basically he says that the PAP underlying methodology and assumptions are flawed, and nothing they change about it will change that underlying problem. James believes that overuse is just one of many different ways a pitcher gets injured and thinks that pitch counts could push players to the point where underuse will affect their ability to build enough stamina to withstand even the games they are pitching now.
PAP Defense
BP was allowed to rebut and, in their defense, basically said that they made improvements to their methodology that James analyzed, that he was looking at their first generation of that methodology, and that they already had a better methodology that is based on research now (first version was a guess). They also noted that “there is clearly a danger in relying on pitch counts as the sole arbiter of a pitcher’s risk.” “It’s clear that pitch counts are only one factor in determining a pitcher’s injury risk. A pitcher’s mechanics, his workout regimen, his body habitus – all are factors which play a part in determining how many pitches is too much.”
BP's Standards for Good Pitcher Management
They also noted a number of pitchers who had pitch counts in the low 120’s, which they were not that concerned about (up to 127 pitches), nor were they that concerned that they went over 127, as long as they didn’t do it very often. Thus, doing it once, twice, over a few years period was not a big concern, it was doing it regularly that they had a problem with.
Lincecum, in his roughly 2 years of pitching, over 66 starts, has gone over 127 twice, and thus has been at or under 127 pitches in 64 of those 66 starts, with those two starts coming late last season.
Cain in a little over 3 seasons of pitching, 112 starts, has gone over 127 once and thus has been at or under 127 pitches in 111 of those 112 starts, with that one start coming in mid-2006.
Thus, based on BP's stance in the book, they should have no problem with the usage of Lincecum or Cain by the Giants management. Particularly since mechanics is important to them, both Lincecum and Cain are suppose to have great mechanics.
Giants Pitchers: Lincecum and Cain, Heading Down the Stretch
BP also admitted that they agree with James that it was pitchers who were 24 and younger who were more at risk: "Bill is almost certainly right when he states that almost all of the risk inherent in throwing too many pitches occurs in a pitcher’s formative years. The connection between overuse and catastrophic injury seems to drop off quickly past age 25 or so. "
Well, that's good news for Giants fans. Lincecum will be 25 on June 15. Matt Cain will be 25 on October 1. So unless Bochy has either of them throw more than 127 pitches in a number of games between now and their next birthdays, they would have passed through their injury nexus years (pre-25) without being overly abused, per BP’s comments in the book regarding sterling examples of baseball manager's proper usage of pitchers.
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