Giants Over .500 in 2009

While I don't agree that my posts have been all about "me" recently (and I don't see how a discussion about a disagreement in viewpoint could be considered all about me), I am tired (finally) of repeating myself to people new to my work. Instead of hashing it all out in a comment, when I have time, I will try to post my answer in a complete post so that I don't have to repeat myself again.

So I will move on with this short post about a simulation of the Giants using The Hardball Times projections for 2009.

Giants Over .500 in 2009

At the Replacement Level Yankee Weblog, they did a 100 trial simulation of the 2009 season using the rosters as of today and the projection from The Hardball Times. They found that the Giants ended up with an average 83.5 wins, 78.5 losses season. They won the division 21% of the time and the wildcard 8.5% of the time. That's about a 30% chance of making the playoffs in 2009.

I've been saying for a while that the Giants have a good chance of being at .500 and over, and this simulation provides some credence for this position. I don't see how they have Colorado at 88.1 wins when they gave up Holliday and I was not particularly impressed with the package of players they got back plus they haven't acquired anyone significant during the off-season, but still, they were over .500 on average in those 100 simulation seasons. I guess having Tulowitski for a full season is a big improvement, but the loss of Holliday should have had some large negative effect, one would think, unless the system thinks the subtraction of Taveras was a huge plus.

Still, something else to chew on when thinking about the Giants in 2009.

Go Giants!