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Friday, September 12, 2008

Conor Gillaspie Got Some Big Balls: But Can He Walk the Talk?

Interesting quote by the Chron from Gillaspie, after he grounded out in his first MLB AB:
Gillaspie is one cocky 21-year-old. He said, "I made contact and got down the line pretty good. Hopefully they'll throw me in there the next couple of weeks, maybe a couple of starts. I think I can play as good as any of these guys up here. That's why I'm up here."
Makes Baggarly's speculation that the reason the Giants promoted Gillaspie was a handshake deal that, while they won't give him a major league contract, they would promote him to the 40 man roster in September, when it probably does not cost the Giants one of his four options years (for players with less than 5 pro seasons after being drafted, their team is allowed 4 options) appear to be the truth.

Basically he was upset getting drafted so "low", but the Giants weren't going to go much over slot for him nor give him a major league contract, so he settled for the opportunity to be on the 40 man roster (which also pays him extra money on top of his bonus, about $66,000 according to Baggarly) which gives him exposure to the major league staff, and if he can walk the talk, then he could win the starting 3B position for 2009.

This also boosts his ego publicly: this move implies that he showed so much talent in his short time in professional baseball that the Giants brought him up and gave him a chance to win the starting 3B job. He implied as much with his statement. And that's better than getting a major league contract then struggling, this way he has shown clearly with his overall play that he deserves a shot at the starting 3B position and is promoted to the majors on merit, not collegiate projection and guess-timation. This says he's the real deal.

And for that, what does the Giants lose? If he's right, we have a new starting 3B. If he's wrong, the Giants are only out less than $100K, but they still have 4 option years on him plus he could play a utility role in his 5th year, like Feliz did, manning 3B, 2B, and 1B, which should be plenty of time to see whether he's got the stuff to be a starter or not.

By the 5th year, you have a very good idea what you got, normally, because few player suddenly blossom in their 7, 8, 9, 10th year to be more than a utility player. This is supported by the findings of my draft study, I found that it took players typically 4-6 years to pan out to be major leaguers or not, the better ones a bit less.

In any case, you stroke the ego of your new prospect, who needed stroking because he was licking his wounds because of where he was drafted, for not much monetary outlay or business risk. Now all Conor has to do is start walking the talk. Good luck, because we can sure use a good starting 3B.

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