BEAT LA... BEAT LA... BEAT LA!!!

As much as I would like to see the Giants move up in the draft and get a top 5 pick - they are currently tied for 6th, though I think they would win the tie-breaker, and only 1 game away from 5th - I would never wish or even secretly hope for the Giants to lose to the D-gers, ever!!!

I want to see the Giants crush the D-gers in a three-game sweep. It looks like the Giants might agree, there are rumors in the press that the Giants are planning on shifting the rotation to have Barry Zito pitch Saturday and Matt Cain pitch Sunday - currently Travis Blackley is slated for Sat. and Barry Zito on Sunday. The Merc's Andrew Baggarly noted that Matt Cain took batting practice on Wednesday even though he supposedly has already made his last start of the season.

Please - No Cain

I think it would be a mistake to start Cain, as much as I want to sweep the D-gers. He is at 3,354 pitches this season. With another start, he's pretty much at 3,500 pitches (if he throws 120, he would have 3,474) and from my admittedly unscientific look at pitch counts for pitchers over a season, I found that most pitchers endure a down season in terms of performance of peripheral stats within a year or two. Only two came to mind who didn't: Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens.

Here's how I did it. I was perusing The Graphical Pitcher (now Player) book a year or two ago, and one of the stats they provide is the total number of pitches thrown each season, on a line graph. I noticed that pitchers would have a bad season - either that year or within two seasons afterward - when they had a peak in pitch count, and after flipping through a couple of times, it seemed like 3,500 was the magic number. Bad was measured by a stat they created based on peripherals, and there would be a big dip.

So admittedly unscientific, but with the season gone anyway, I would rather err on the side of caution with Cain, much like what the Giants did with Lincecum by shutting him down. I would rather push up Zito and then insert Misch to pitch the last game, as I would like to more see how he would do as a starter than I would Blackley. Misch's strikeout rate was so high in AAA that I want to see how he would do as a starter.

BEAT LA!!! BEAT LA!!! BEAT LA!!!