Matt Cain and No-hitters

Interesting post on MLB Trade Rumor about the odds of Matt Cain throwing a no-hitter - Matt Cain fever grows! The author calculated, using a Bill James methodology, what the probability of Matt Cain throwing a no-hitter, based on his H/9 rate (career I assume), which is 0.27%, which is very close to Nolan Ryan's probability of 0.35%. That would mean that Cain would have to have 364 starts for the expectation that he throws one no-hitter to be approximately 100% (that expectation, not actuality).

With his career basically starting at age 21, and assuming 32 starts per year (and that he's healthy throughout!), 364 starts would bring him to when he is 32 years old (with the 7 starts in 2005 and if he is the #1 or #2 for much of the years, he should reach it at the end of his 31 year old season). If he is a hall of famer, he would pitch another 9 seasons or so after that, which amounts to close to 300 starts. So, theoretically, if he continues the low hit rate and can pitch 32-33 games every season, he should roughly be expected to throw 2 hitters during his career.

Of course, most pitchers have a rough patch somewhere where he is injured with whatever ailment that pitchers get, so he's definitely not going to get that close to 650 starts, but I would take one no-hitter: the last one by a Giant was by John "the Count" Montefusco, around 30 years ago against the Braves (he was my all-time Giants favorite pitcher, until Cain and Lincecum came along!) and the last by a Giant in SF was by Ed Halicki, about 4-5 years before the Count, against the Mets, if my memory is working (and it hasn't been lately...). Hopefully, between Cain and Lincecum, we fans will get to see another one in our lifetime.