Sorry, busy today (Friday) for my wife's b-day, plus discussing why I think Ortiz is better than Park in a now long comment thread, but ran across this great 3 part series from an A's fan's site, which was linked to by The Book's author, TangoTiger.
Very interesting and detailed information about Zito, on a website called Catfish Stew (which is a nice pun, ties the far past - Catfish - with more recent - Stew for Dave Stewart - in a nice title; I love word play like that, like the Beatles Apple Corps):
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
It's a bit late and I probably should go to bed now, but wanted to pass this info on as it was great stuff to read (more technical than I could really understand, but good stuff!). The Part 2 article has a good discussion of reasons other analysts had given as reasons why Zito is not good, and he counters with a lot of good data. TangoTiger had an interesting bit of info on how significant his low BABIP is.
I would also note that this is how Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum have been surviving with high walk rates, it is not just the strikeouts, they both keep hit rates low as well. And the author notes Zito's great curveball and, coinkydink enough, Lincecum is suppose to have a great curveball too, maybe Zito can share notes with him....
I would also add that this was how Russ Ortiz also survived all his years of his career with high walk rates that he had, he was also able to keep his hit rate down significantly during his good years of his career.
ReplyDeleteInteresting pattern that Zito, Ortiz, Cain, and Lincecum have been able to survive relatively high walk rates with much lowered BABIP rates. Perhaps Tom Tippett of Diamond Mind could add another "pitching type" to the ones he cataloged in his article examining the DIPS theory. Unlike commonly accepted sabermetrics, it allowed that there are pitchers who can be successful without following the three true outcomes of strikeouts, walks, and homers.
I forgot about that when I wrote against signing Zito, but it does look like with all the further
I don't think a walk is a walk. Some pitchers use the walk rather effectively. Some, for instance, when they get in a hole, refuse to give in and go ahead and let the guy walk rather than give up a hit. Others, Reuter for example, was always around (ie just off) the plate.
ReplyDeleteIf you are giving up walks because you do not have good control and are often wild in the strike zone, that is disaster. However, if you are always nibbling, never gving anything to hit, 2 or 3 extra walks a game is much less consequential.
Glad you are back, Martin.