Looking over my comment, I thought I should post it instead. Thanks to Larry and his link to this article on what the average pitching rotation looks like in the MLB, not what people had in their heads as the prototypical #1, #3, or #5 starter. One thing I should have noted was that it was worse than I had thought and I thought I was being conservative - however, my view was more in line with the playoff rotation stats in the second article I linked to, so I guess I wasn't that far off. Here is my comment, upgraded to post-worthiness :^)
Thanks, Larry, for the heads-up on the Hardball Times article. Verrry interrresting! Here is a link to the follow-up article: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/more-fun-with-rotation-numbers/
I've been wanting to do something like that, but I like the way he did his methodology, makes a lot of sense that way, in taking a look at it from the season viewpoint. I usually just did it by the starter with the best ERA and moved on down. Worked for most cases but not, as he broke down, for a team like Minnesota who had an ace for half the season. The Angels probably had the same "problem" (nice problem to have :^) with Jered Weaver in there.
Giants Potential for Strong Rotation
This supports my view that the Giants have the potential for a very strong starting rotation. If we view the past two years for Zito as indicative of his skill level - as even saber-methods say that 2005 was a bad luck year and 2006 was a good luck year - then he's a 3.85 ERA pitcher in the AL. Just subtracting 0.20, since both #1 and #2 are about 0.20 better in NL, that would mean Zito is about a 3.65 ERA starter in NL, which is above the 3.78 borderline ERA between #1 and #2. So he's our #1 for 2007.
As the article noted, Cain is the average #2 starter already - as I had noted before, once he got his stuff together, he was clearly a #1 as well, perhaps a #1a with Zito 1b; for for now, #2.
A #3 would have an ERA between 4.31 and 4.84 according to the article. I recall Lowry's ERA at 4.7-ish, so even his poor year in 2006 qualifies him to be a #3 starter - as I had noted before, if he pitches to his pre-injury form, he would be a high 3 ERA starter, which would make him a #2 type starter potentially.
A #4 starter has an ERA between 4.84 and 5.68, and Morris from what I recall had a 4.9-ish ERA so in 2006 he as the #4 type pitcher. However, as I noted, he got his ERA down to the low 4 before his season went south and he was a 4-ish ERA the year before, so there is the potential for him to be a #2 type pitcher as well. Between the two of them, the Giants should have the 3/4 positions down pat.
A #5 starter has an ERA above 5.68 and an average of 6.26. Hennessey has a career 4.77 ERA in 40 starts, so not only is he a good choice for #5, he could be a #3 based on the numbers presented if he could just duplicate his career numbers. His 4.91 ERA for 2006 would qualify for a #4 and near borderline #3.
And that's if Sanchez doesn't out do him in Spring Training. Sanchez's ERA starting in 2006 was a hideous 7.36 but in only 4 starts. If he shows the form he did in 2005-2006 in the minors, he should be comfortably in the #5 spot, if not higher. And there's also Lincecum.
So for all 5 positions, the Giants, just based on 2006's performances, should easily beat out the average starting staff. Thus, as I have been trying to point out, the Giants appear to have a strong rotation going forward with the addition of Zito. The rotation is the centerpiece.
Cannot Judge Each Position Against the Best
That's the problem I've tried to correct when people say that one pitcher or another is not of starter material. Most times, they are thinking of a Top 5 type of position player or Top 20 starting pitcher - not every team will have that type of pitcher/hitter at every position of the roster. There will always be compromises, even for the Yankees, who saw Cairo starting often for them in recent years. So maybe Winn isn't the greatest hitting RF, but he's not that bad either, from what I remember about his numbers. Certainly Roberts is very good for his position.
I just saw an article blasting the Giants for their off-season, and it was filled with this type of partial analysis (not that mine are full analysis, but I think it is better) and I plan on dissecting that article soon.
View Not As Rosy Versus Playoff Teams
Lastly, in the article I linked above, the article noted what the starting rotation for the top half of pitching staffs and playoff teams. The Giants do not compare well overall with the top staffs or playoff teams. They need Cain's low 3-ish ERA after his skipped start to have the #1 ace spot filled. Zito looks like he should be OK for #2, easily with the switch to NL. Lowry needs to hit his career average to be a #3, but if he can return to prior form, he's a #2; however if he's like 2006 then we fall short. Morris is fine again as #4, but if he can return to his just prior form of 2005, he is a borderline 2/3. Hennessey is easily a #4 already and if Sanchez can outpitch him in spring training, the Giants rotation will be all the better. Then there is the possibility that Lincecum might just grab that 5th spot too.
So whereas above, the Giants should easily beat the average starting rotation, when compared to the better rotations, they need Cain to pitch like he did after his skipped start, Zito to pitch to his form of the past two years, and Lowry to match or better his career numbers. Morris and Hennessey/Sanchez should be fine in any case, and Morris and Lowry could flop 3/4 if Morris comes through while Lowry doesn't. Same with the #2 spot should Zito falter, so the 2/3/4 spots in any case do look like we have them filled by the trio. More iffy overall, particularly for the #1 spot, but still encouraging.
I think the Giants have a good chance to have a rotation that beats out even the playoff teams, but it is no sure thing, unlike the above comparison against the average. We should, however, have a solid to good 2/3/4/5 spots filled by Zito, Lowry, Morris, and HennCorrSanCecum, which can range from 3 #2's plus the #5 to a low as 2006's 1 #2 and 3 #4's, but looks very good for 1 #2, 1 #3, and 2 #4's. The main question is whether Cain or Zito can provide us with the #1 stats to fill up a playoff rotation.
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