Your 2024 Giants are now Soler Powered

Per tweet last night by Susan Slusser, Jorge Soler will sign with the Giants.  Per reporting from The Athletic, it will be for 3 years, $42M, no word on any other contract terms, but there does not appear to be any opt outs.  The rumor mill had it that Soler wanted three years, and the Giants eventually gave him that, though perhaps less per season.

Zaidi Success Streak in Finding a Valuable Player: 2022 and 2023

As I captured in my first post and second post about his finding young contributors, Zaidi as Dodger GM had a streak of adding prospects or young veterans at low cost (either in money or prospects or both), and still in their 20's, but wasn't established yet, who contributed at least 1.0 bWAR at some point during Zaidi's time there, and he was able to continue that into 2019, whereas the Dodger's streak ended in 2019, and he continued in 2020 and 2021 with the Giants.  This post will look at his record in 2022 and 2023.

ogc thoughts

In 2022, the streak continued, with the addition of Jacob Junis, and Yaz led the way again.  These players, who were all originally acquired when they were in their 20's, and were not all that good before acquisition, added at least 1.0 bWAR in 2022 for the Giants:

• Mike Yastrzemski (31 YO): 1.9 bWAR; he continues to deliver value, after being acquired for the 2019 season.
• Thairo Estrada (26 YO): 1.6 bWAR; he got into 140 games, starting 129 of them, and played across most of the diamond.
• Jacob Junis (29 YO): 1.6 bWAR; he was a nice surprise, and continued Zaidi's streak of adding a new player producing at least 1.0 bWAR
• Tyler Rogers (30 YO): 1.0 bWAR; as I noted in the post link above, Rogers was added because the prior GM never gave him a chance.
• J.D. Davis (29 YO): 0.9 bWAR; great contribution in 49 games, 32 starts, would prorate above 1 WAR
• Wilmer Flores (30 YO): 0.7 bWAR; I include him because it was a relatively small contract.
• Alex Young (28 YO): 0.6 bWAR
• Jarlin Garcia (29 YO): 0.4 bWAR
• Luis Ortiz (26 YO): 0.3 bWAR
• Mauricio Dubon (27 YO): 0.2 bWAR
• LaMonte Wade Jr (28 YO):  0.0 bWAR
• Zack Littell (26 YO): 0.1 bWAR

There were a number of negatives as well, but nobody is perfect. The point is that he added players who produced well, at least at a 1.0 bWAR production rate and together produced 9.3 bWAR to the 2022 team.  This was a sharp drop from the prior two seasons, which were boosted greatly by the Gausman addition, as well as declines by past contributors. The 2022 team was mainly boosted by Estrada playing a full season, and the additions of Junis and Davis.

There were improvements and new additions in 2023, and his streak continued with the final push by Tristan Beck to reach the benchmark 1.0 bWAR:

• LaMonte Wade Jr (29 YO): 2.7 bWAR; great comeback season, was finally healthy
• Wilmer Flores (31 YO): 2.6 bWAR; I include him because it was a relatively small contract and added in his 20's.
• Mike Yastrzemski (32 YO): 2.4 bWAR; continued to produce in his early 30's (has added 12.0 bWAR while with the Giants) 
• Thairo Estrada (27 YO): 2.3 bWAR; continued to produce and improve as a starter, great young find
• Tyler Rogers (31 YO): 1.7 bWAR; Rogers was originally added because the prior GM never gave him a chance and he was added in his 20's.
• Tristan Beck (27 YO): 1.1 bWAR; acquired in trade of Mark Melancon. I'm stretching my definition a bit to include him, as he was acquired in Melancon trade, because the idea is for low cost acquisitions. But I'm including him because it was a good trade, to dump money, where prospects is of lesser concern. A trade like getting Jeff Kent for Matt Williams would not count for this since the idea of the trade was to get value for value.
• J.D. Davis (29 YO): 0.9 bWAR; wasn't as good in a starting role, unfortunately, but still added some
• Jacob Junis (30 YO): 0.8 bWAR; wasn't used as much, despite all the holes in the rotation
• Blake Sobol (25 YO):  0.2 bWAR; Rule 5 Draft pick, had to be kept on the roster all season for the Giants to keep him on the team past this season, I view this as a success of Zaidi's processes for acquiring young talent at low cost, though it is not that high a WAR, but when I first started this up at the end of the season, he was actually at 0.6 bWAR.

Overall, including others with positive and other with negative, these players, all acquired by Zaidi when they were under 30 YO, and not for much money or assets used to acquire, produced 13.9 bWAR in 2023, which is nearly what was produced in 2020-21, and both were about 3 times as much as produced in 2019, as prior acquisitions continue to contribute while adding in new producers.

Farm System Producing

Because the young players were a more prominent part of the season, I thought I would start addressing the homegrown portion of the roster.  These players produced 10.6 bWAR in 2023 (there are some repeats here, from above), with the vast majority produced by the three veterans, and below are all the positive contributors, I'm skipping over the ones below zero:

• Logan Webb:  5.5 bWAR
• Tyler Rogers: 1.7 bWAR
• Camilo Doval: 1.5 bWAR
• Tristan Beck:  1.1 bWAR, Beck did well as a bulk reliever
• Ryan Walker: 1.0 bWAR, Walker excelled as an opener, could be future set up man, if he can continue doing well
• Patrick Bailey: 0.8 bWAR, Patty excelled as a catcher, but unfortunately the long season appear to have caught up to him, he will need to build on his stamina. Still, he was a Gold Glove finalist (one of 3), and although only promoted in mid-May, led the NL in a number of catching stats. Also, baseball-reference doesn't include framing value, but Fangraphs does and he had 2.6 fWAR, which should be more representative of his value.
• Austin Slater:  0.7 bWAR
• Keaton Winn:  0.3 bWAR, Winn did really well as a bulk reliever, but got hit hard at home, ending up with a huge ERA despite great peripherals (8.9 K/9; 2.30 K/BB). Most projection systems see a better performance from Winn than Beck
• Kyle Harrison: 0.2 bWAR, Harrison is the top ranked LHP in most Top 100 rankings for 2023 and 2024 seasons, he made the leap to the majors, with some ups and downs (so did Cain and Lincecum), especially that great early start. The seasonal rate for this is 1.0 bWAR, so as a 21 YO rookie, he was almost an average pitcher. The future is bright for this one!
• Tyler Fitzgerald: 0.2 bWAR, this rookie was a nice last minute surprise, producing a lot of power in just 10 games started. Not sure why he wasn't promoted earlier, as it appears that for 2023, it was fish or cut bait time, so they finally gave him a shot, and he did well.  Since he can play almost every position on the field, except catch and pitch, he will likely start the season as a utility player, but will get starts across the diamond, both to give him experience, as well as rest players. 

Now, among the ones who were below zero, I thought I would discuss two of them, Luis Matos and Heliot Ramos.

Thoughts on Luis Matos

Matos had an up and down season. He was especially bad at defense, considering defense was supposed to be part of his package.  His hitting was actually okay, about average, as his offense prorated to a full season was close to 2 wins, but his defense prorated to -3 wins, it was that bad.  He was only 21 YO, and the Giants have already signed Jung Hoo Lee to be the starting CF, and Zaidi in a recent interview, noted that Matos is now the starting LF, which means Conforto is the main DH.

Since he was so bad fielding CF, moving him to LF should help to minimize him as a defensive liability, especially since Lee is considered a plus defender in CF, which should also help to cover for Matos' lack of natural fielding instincts, which I saw noted in a variety of reports on him.

As I noted in my last post (where I analyzed Heliot Ramos), part of my prospect analysis covers the prospect's age in relationship to the league average, as I've noticed that performances, at least in the minors, follow the pattern of excelling when in the same relative age range as before, when he excelled previously.  

In 2023, he was 21 and -5.6 years younger than the players in AAA, and hit .353/.404/.626/1.030, with a .336 BABIP.  That compares with his .304/.399/.444/.842 in AA, with a .320 BABIP,  where he was -2.7 years younger.  That's similar to his 2021 season, where he was 19 YO (-2.1 years) and hit .313/.359/.495/.853 in A-ball, with a .332 BABIP.  He did not hit that well in 2022, where he was 20 YO, -2.6 years, hitting only .211/.275/.344/.619, with a .226 BABIP, showing how low he can go. And in 2023 in the majors, he hit .250/.319/.342/.661, with a .285 BABIP, and was -7.2 years younger than the league.

For Matos, a 22 YO in 2025, he'll be -6.2 years younger than the league. He is roughly the age behind the league as he was in 2023 in AAA, where he was -5.6 years younger, and he hit well, albeit in small samples, but his BABIP was basically near what he has hit before when he hit well, so it does not seem that far out of the question that this batting line was real.  

Here's why I believe in Luis Matos:  his contact rate and eye are great for hitters.  He had good contact rates (85% and higher is good) and eye (100% and higher is elite):  

• A-ball:  86% contact rate (AB-K/AB), 46% eye (walks/strikeouts), .853 OPS, .332 BABIP (-2.1 years)
• Advanced A-ball, A+:  82% contact rate, 42% eye, .619 OPS, .226 BABIP (-2.6 years)
• AA:  90% contact rate, 142% eye (ultra-elite), .842 OPS, .320 BABIP (-2.7 years)
• AAA:  92% contact rate, 100% eye (still elite), 1.030 OPS, .336 BABIP (-5.6 years)
• Majors: 86% contact rate, 61% eye (good hitters are above 50%), .661 OPS, .285 BABIP (-7.2 years)

This reminds me of how well Pablo Sandoval (the Panda) did in the minors before he made the majors.  He had really good contact rates as he rose in the minors (lacked the patience that Matos showed).  Then his power kicked in when he turned 22.  Panda averaged a homer every 22 AB in AA when he was promoted to the majors, where he averaged a homer every 48 AB.  Matos averaged a homer every 30 AB in A-ball, every 34 AB in A+ball, every 38 AB in AA, and every 16 AB in AAA (obvious outlier), and then every 114 AB in the majors.  Hopefully the power he showed in the minors will translate to the majors soon enough, 30-38 AB roughly is equivalent to 15-20 homers in a season.

With a contact rate of 86% and eye of 61% in the majors in 253 plate appearances, that demonstrates his ability to correctly gauge the strike zone and make contact better than most major leaguers, so the next step in his development is for him to do more damage with his bat when he makes contact.  He reportedly has worked out this offseason to bring his power into play in the majors, and there is a picture of him circulating around showing off the extra body weight he has gained. 

At this point, I have greater hope that he can produce as a major leaguer than any other Giants OF prospects, simply because he's shown that he can be good judging the strike zone in the majors and making contact.  Add in his production in the minors when challenged by being one of the most youngest in that level, the ability to keep on making good contact, then with him taking a leap in ability in 2023, gaining more walks at every level, including the majors, vs. his ability before at lower levels, and thus I can see why Zaidi announced recently that they are starting Matos in LF in 2024.  He has the potential to break out if given the opportunity, and at worse, if he struggles again, Conforto can slide back into LF from DH, or perhaps another OF will get the opportunity to play (Meckler, Ramos, Fitzgerald, Sabol, McCray, basically in that order).

Thoughts on Heliot Ramos

I still believe in Heliot Ramos.  Ramos finally broke through and had a good season in AAA.  His best seasons were in 2019 and 2023, when he was 3.5 and 3.6 years younger than the league.  Unfortunately, he was 5.2 years younger than the majors in 2023, would puts him at 4.2 years in 2024, and 3.2 years in 2025, when he would be 25 YO.  He should be out of options that year, and hopefully ready to break out, and he might break out late in the 2024 season, if he follows his age vs league pattern.  And with all the OF on the roster, and Lee signed to be the starting CF, I don't think he will see much action in the majors in 2024, unless there is a lot of problems with the outfielders.

I covered this in greater detail in the last post I published.  As noted above, Zaidi recently noted in an interview that Matos is the starting LF in the current configuration of the starting lineup, with Jung Hoo Lee in CF, and Yaz and Slater platooning in RF, which presumably means Conforto is the DH (though a recent rumor is that the Giants are pursuing Jorge Soler to be their DH, so stay tuned for more changes). So I'm pasting the last three paragraphs, with changes to account for Matos in LF:

However, given how poorly he hit in the majors in 2023, I would be cautious and look at 2025 being the season he breaks out (when he's 25 YO), with 2024 being perhaps in the .700-ish OPS range in the majors, where he doesn't play much unless he can keep his OPS above .700 consistently, instead of going hot and cold all the time.  I would not bet on him breaking out, but I wouldn't bet against him either, depends on how he does the first half of 2024. 

His main problem, as with most prospects who struggle, they just strike out too much.  Some fans complain he hasn't gotten a chance, but in his chances so far, he's been striking out a ton in the majors while not getting much walks or hits. It's one thing if he's blasting homers while striking out, like he did in Sacramento last season, but one homer in 82 plate appearances, with a weak ISO of 92, speaks to an overmatched hitter.  I think he will get more opportunities in 2024 (of course, that's a low bar, some critics would note), and will break out sooner than later.

And he probably will get opportunities to play in the majors in any case in 2024.  I doubt there will be another starting OF signed, so as noted above, it'll be Matos in LF, Lee in CF (where he's expected to be plus defensively, and can help Matos out in left center), and Yaz/Slater in RF (where they have been good defenders before), with Wade as a backup OF, but mainly platooning at 1B.  Hopefully we don't see much of Ramos in 2024 because that means issues for someone in the OF, but since Yaz and Slater seems to be injury prone, I expect Ramos to get occasional opportunities to show his progress vis-a-vis the majors.

2024-25 Could End the Complainers' Comments on Developing OF

Based on the above, the starting lineup by 2025 could be Matos in LF, Lee in CF, and Ramos in RF, and the three of them could end the complaints that the Giants haven't developed a starting OF since Chili Davis, if they produce well.

Speaking of Lee, I haven't decided if Lee should qualify for extetnding this streak in 2024.  Technically, he would, as he has had no MLB experience, and essentially is a good minor leaguer.  However, he was paid over $100M, so it's not like the Giants didn't think that he wasn't talented.  I'm open to being convinced either way, if anyone would like to chime in.