tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post984217890935594571..comments2024-02-23T20:49:09.057-08:00Comments on obsessivegiantscompulsive: Your 2014 Giants: All Together Nowobsessivegiantscompulsivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-74493260521830640972014-04-07T17:15:49.832-07:002014-04-07T17:15:49.832-07:00I should clarify: Pavlovic reported that AnVil ha...I should clarify: Pavlovic reported that AnVil had two options. I tweeted him and asked if that means to 2015 or 2016, and he said 2016, which I re-tweeted. <br /><br />And that's really good, he could stay in AA in 2014 and 2015, then move to AAA in 2016, when he's 25 YO, still young for making the majors, assuming he continues to develop. And I don't see why not, the question is whether he'll strike out too much once he reaches the majors. Right now, yeah, he's probably going to whiff a lot, but maybe with 3 more seasons of full-time hitting, he can figure things out, as he has good bat speed and has been young relative to the league so far. He could blossom as Adrianza did last season in AAA. obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-9081579919363081922014-04-07T17:10:59.076-07:002014-04-07T17:10:59.076-07:00Forgot to add a few disappointments out of spring ...Forgot to add a few disappointments out of spring training.<br /><br />First off, I was hoping for a Sandoval extension. They are so far apart, I can't imagine how they would meet in the middle. But apparently Pablo has OKed continuing the negotiations during the season, though only to mid-season, the All-Star break, probably. And both sides have apparently continued. That has to be good news, because otherwise why continue if they don't think there is a compromise available?<br /><br />I was also disappointed that Brandon Belt was not signed to some sort of long-term deal. I have to assume that his side is betting on a great 2014 season on which to negotiate from, given his improvements from his adjustments to his grip and batting box location. Maybe the Giants will give us a surprise mid-season, if he continues hitting as well has he has, of a deal.<br /><br />Otherwise, things went pretty much as expected, other than Scutaro and Affeldt coming out injured, but that's going to happen to somebody each spring, randomly. Luckily, neither are crucial nor long term absence. Plus, this gave Adrianza some opportunity to get some starts and play some, so as long as Scutaro can return by mid-season and help boost our offense then, plus the others continue hitting even if our 2B don't, we should be OK.<br /><br />Also, there was the news that Villalona still has two options left (Alex Pavlovic reported that he's covered to 2016) which is great news because that gives the Giants up to three more seasons to see how well he does in the upper minors. That would explain why the Giants chose to place him in AA this season. <br /><br />He's doing well so far. In four games this season, he's hitting .294/.333/.471/.804 with 1 HR in 17 AB and 4 RBIs (but 5 K's and no walks, continuing to be a three-true-outcomes type of hitter). He's only 23 YO, which is still relatively young for a prospect to be in AA. <br /><br />He had a .327 BABIP in San Jose in 2009, then in his return, .258 in his return in 2013, but if you take out his first 10 games, where he appeared to be adjusting back to life as a pro, .283 BABIP. And he continued that in AA, .292 BABIP. His BABIP now is .364, so he probably cools off a lot in BA, so he will need to pound out more extra-base hits to keep his OPS near 800. However, his ISO in 2013 was 204 in San Jose (239 after 10th game) and 178 in Richmond, so there is little margin for him to improve unless he starts hitting for more extra-base hits than previously. He's at 177 right now. Assuming his BABIP falls to around .300, that would push his OPS to around .700, or where he was last season. <br /><br />He basically needs to hit for some more power, push it to the 239 range he was at when hitting well for SJ, as well as take a few more walks, to keep in the mid-700 range, which would not be that bad for him to achieve. Plus, he needs to revert back to hitting LHP well, while keeping hitting RHP well, which he did not do well last season. obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-53354694830904952682014-04-04T10:25:53.298-07:002014-04-04T10:25:53.298-07:00Ooops, make that "post-Bonds Giants"Ooops, make that "post-Bonds Giants"obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-36542918055470841672014-04-04T10:22:10.790-07:002014-04-04T10:22:10.790-07:00OK, thank you for clarifying your point!
I though...OK, thank you for clarifying your point!<br /><br />I thought you were talking about the methodology or the data, my apologies.<br /><br />Yes, the number of wins is an outlier relative to what others are saying, I get so focused on one thing sometimes, I don't see the simple explanation. Thanks again for explaining.<br /><br />And I'm OK with being an outlier in this way. That's why I wrote a response to a reporter whose writing I liked that the Giants did have a plan for post-Giants, and that it was pitching, pitching, pitching. Why I told people that they were wrong about the Giants in 2008, that they would be closer to .500 than 100 losses (though frankly that one could have gone either way, it just barely tipped closer to .500). Why I told people since 2009 that the Giants were going to win a World Championship with the group of players they had assembled and that the 2010's would be considered The Decade of the Giants when all is said and done. And I predicted 90 wins in 2010 and was wrong, they got 92 wins. <br /><br />And so I've been predicting more wins for the Giants than other people for a long time now. <br /><br />So yeah, we'll have to agree to disagree. obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-31634183710907273842014-04-04T10:05:01.797-07:002014-04-04T10:05:01.797-07:00If you don't think that predicting many more w...If you don't think that predicting many more wins for the Giants than everyone else out there is an outlier, we are going to have to agree to disagree.22's SweetSwinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02224679009729884861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-878021090715049042014-04-03T18:07:39.585-07:002014-04-03T18:07:39.585-07:00There you go again, labeling my calculations as an...There you go again, labeling my calculations as an "outlier". Calling it that don't make it so. If you have a problem with any of the projections systems out there, you can call them outliers, but my calculations are not outliers, they just take the input and give an output.<br /><br />The switch is not what will lead to a lot of winning. First off is three aces delivering among: Bumgarner, Cain, Hudson, Lincecum. Another key is the lineup staying healthy. A big key is Belt continuing where he left off last season (so far, so good). And additional key is Posey having his usual great second halves (yet to be seen). obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-85111247113894312152014-04-03T09:49:51.035-07:002014-04-03T09:49:51.035-07:00Thanks for the link to manager affect. Yes, I prob...Thanks for the link to manager affect. Yes, I probably underestimate the pitching and the offense, but not by much and not nearly as much I think your calculations over estimate them. My point was that your calculations were an outlier and unlikely and I'm sorry if that got lost in my supporting my estimated season win total. There is nothing wrong with being an outlier, especially if you have good reason to be there (which you do). I think this is a second place team that might make the playoffs and will finish within 7 of the Dodgers. They are a competitive team and will be interesting to watch especially in the middle innings when it comes to deciding when to make the switch for defense. Getting that correct is going to be a key factor to winning lots of games with this pitching staff.22's SweetSwinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02224679009729884861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-3652798455678169012014-04-01T16:27:02.573-07:002014-04-01T16:27:02.573-07:00Oh, and you say that the pitching only got slightl...Oh, and you say that the pitching only got slightly better. 1) Bumgarner is getting better and better. 2) Cain should be much better than in 2013. 3) Hudson should be much better than what Zito gave us in 2013. And as I noted, 3 good plus 1 4-ish starters like we did in 2009-2012 got us Top 3-5 ranking in RA in the majors. That's with Randy Johnson, Todd Wellemeyer, and all the parade of prospects (Sadowski, Martinez, etc) who came up and didn't do all that well during that period.<br /><br />The defense is passable but the offense even without Morse or Scutaro/Arias still has Pagan/Belt/Sandoval/Posey/Pence in the lineup, that's still a pretty good lineup, and when you have good to great pitching, you can win a lot of games with an average lineup: a good lineup will get you that much more wins. I think any lineup with those five guys is an above average lineup.<br /><br />Look at the offenses that are between average and the top of the league, most of them have a lot of holes in the lineup, fans in general seem to think that a lineup is poor if you have a number of holes in it, but the sad fact is that holes is a common thing in baseball, that is why the 6/7/8 hitters on average don't have that high an OPS on average. So even if Crawford doesn't hit that well this season, if he hits over 700 in the 8th spot, he'll be an above average hitter in the NL there.<br /><br />And I would note again, I used the lineup calculator on a variety of different projections, both high (Bill James) and low, then used pythagorean on the pitching compared to the lineup calculator to see how many wins that would produce. Those all produced 90-92 wins. So if you want to call all the publicly available projections systems to view the Giants with rose colored glasses, you can, I'm just reporting what the projections they provided would logically produce for a team.<br /><br />And, as I've noted, I think you think too little of the pitching (you didn't even acknowledge the replacement of Zito with Hudson, a huge change). obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-58468988693190468672014-04-01T16:11:08.646-07:002014-04-01T16:11:08.646-07:00Well, as long as my post is, I've been writing...Well, as long as my post is, I've been writing on a number of these factors that lead to my optimism. And I would note that I'm not wearing any type of rose colored glasses, I would root for my team whether I project them to lose (like I did in 2007, for instance) or to win. My main objective here is to gather the facts that I can find and see where my expectations should lie, whether it be 70 wins or 90 wins.<br /><br />Crowdsourcing works in more objective endeavors, I feel, though it can work for subjective ones like this. However, I would note that most probably most of the voters are biased greatly by how poorly the Giants did in 2013, when it was mostly injuries that caused most of their issues, injuries that I don't think are likely to recur in 2014.<br /><br />I have noted before, when the Giant were healthy in 2013, they were 45-36, a 90-win rate season. My projection only relies on Lincecum being the same as in 2013, though on Cain regaining his form, but as I noted in my PQS analysis, Cain's starting quality took a huge leap in his last 10 starts over his prior year of starts, roughly one year after his no-hitter. That the poorer pitching started with the no-hitter, that can't be a coincidence. And I just used the projections for all the pitchers, which has Hudson probably slightly higher than average ERA for the NL, a worse forecast for Timmy, Vogie, and Cain too, so if Cain returns to normal, Timmy pitches like 2013, and Hudson is closer to his career norms, those are all improvements on what the projection systems are saying about them.<br /><br />As I noted here and elsewhere, the Giants had Top 3-5 rankings from 2009-2012 even when someone sucked, so if Vogie struggles, as well as our prospects, it's fine as long as the trio of Bumgarner, Cain, Hudson pitches to their historic performances, Lincecum pitches to his 2013 performance. obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-21956398417624240132014-04-01T15:53:25.753-07:002014-04-01T15:53:25.753-07:00I will have to dig it up, but I thought it was in ...I will have to dig it up, but I thought it was in a recent THT annual, but so far I can't find it. So I'll pass along this link, which I found searching on my blog for it, this discusses how certain managers bring value to their teams. <br /><br />http://obsessivegiantscompulsive.blogspot.com/2012/03/bochy-among-best-managers-ever-in-war.html<br /><br />http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/3/28/2908044/manager-wins-above-expectancy<br /><br />But since I can't find it, I'll stop referring to it until I can locate it again. Thanks for reading.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-4126611357133125872014-04-01T14:43:17.831-07:002014-04-01T14:43:17.831-07:00Wow, you are seriously optimistic. That is ~ a 15 ...Wow, you are seriously optimistic. That is ~ a 15 game up swing, which seems hard to do with an average defense/ pitching and better offense. Sure, you have a reasonable analysis method but I think the data used was already optimistic. Your rose colored glasses view matches less than 25% of the crowdsourse experts (http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/breaking-down-espns-first-mlb-season-forecast/). The way I see it this is an 83 win team (but I lean pessimistic and my analysis is totally subjective). The pitching really has gotten only slightly better; Cain will return to form, Timmy will be the same (despite offseason changes), Hudson will be league average and Vogy will finally be done and his replacement will have typical growing pains). The starting defense is passable (because Morse & who ever is at 2nd aren’t) and the late game replacements are better, but their offense leaves much to be desired. I’m glad I’m not Bochy having to make decisions in the middle to late part of the game when the score is close and the starter has run out of gas. The offense will be better, how could it not be? Pagan alone will do that, Belt shouldn’t regress, Morse is better and the platoon should help Blanco. But those improvements probably aren’t enough to overcome the pitching and defense to allow them to win more than 90 games. It will be a fantastic season if your prediction comes true though. <br /><br />On another note, please tell me more about the analysis showing batters get better when they join a Bochy managed team.<br />22's SweetSwinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02224679009729884861noreply@blogger.com