tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post9041767563170013755..comments2024-02-23T20:49:09.057-08:00Comments on obsessivegiantscompulsive: Your 2013 Giants: Five Added to 40-Man Rosterobsessivegiantscompulsivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comBlogger36125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-17063062926137887952012-12-03T09:24:14.907-08:002012-12-03T09:24:14.907-08:00New fuel to the fire:
http://www.latimes.com/enter...New fuel to the fire:<br />http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/cotown/la-fi-1202-ct-sports-cost-20121202,0,5996855,full.storyShankbonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04803824507120403397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-48202191151365570002012-11-30T16:39:10.215-08:002012-11-30T16:39:10.215-08:00Yeah, never quite understand why people get so dow...Yeah, never quite understand why people get so down on Hector, other than that Posey came out and did so well that he spoiled it for other position prospects. <br /><br />What I really liked was how he seemed to rise to the occasion when hitting. Despite playing such a small percentage of the time, he was among the leaders on the team in RBI the first couple of months. He slowed up in the middle of the season, but from what I recall, that was because he was battling some sort of injury and manning up. And if I recall right, he ended the season with a nice stretch.<br /><br />And don't forget that he got 2 walks in the nerve racking playoffs, you gotta have stone cajones to do that, I'm looking forward to what he'll do in the majors as he develops. I think he looks good to take over for Posey if/when the braintrust decides to save Posey long-term by moving him to, say, 3B.<br /><br />I don't really expect too much out of Torres, but that works because he'll be our #5 OF in my scenario. I like that he plays great defense out there, and yes, his bat looks like it has regressed, but he plays 2 wins above average on defense in the corners, so he only has to hit replacement level (whatever the hell that is :^) in order to provide very good value as a ballplayer. <br /><br />Also important, he still hits LHP very well and would pair up nicely with Blanco in a platoon in CF until someone grabs the position for a while. Win-win for minimal (probably $1M, maybe less) cost.<br /><br />I think the patience relates to the fact that the Giants have fall back options that work. In Pagan's case, I and DrB have enumerated how we can survive his loss. In Scutaro's case, as I've noted here and elsewhere, Theriot was adequate in producing at the #2 spot, we can't expect Scutaro to hit over .360 in 2013 like he did in 2012 for us, he'll hit close to his batting line for the past few years and Theriot is a close enough in production that I'm fine with him as replacement. Also, you know I'm big on Noonan and he could be ready to come up by mid-season and then we can see what he can do for us. These allow him to be patient.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-44746131416083177032012-11-30T15:36:31.216-08:002012-11-30T15:36:31.216-08:00Yeah, well, we are being realistic and steady abou...Yeah, well, we are being realistic and steady about Brown. They are yo-yoing up and down based on the general hype cycle (if you are familiar with Gartner's concept of that) that prospects go through.<br /><br />We didn't think that he'll be a star player, but we also think that he shows enough to be at least an average player.<br /><br />He has issues, but frankly, even the Top 10 overall prospects have issues, Belt was a top 15-20 and he still has issues after two seasons. His issues this season was not big news to us, but because people got all hyped up by last season, they rode him down the emotional roller coaster this season. <br /><br />And yeah, that injury history is a little too reminiscent of NTG. <br /><br />He still could flop, but I still like what I'm seeing (as do you), and as we like to say, next season will be interesting.<br /><br />Yes, sorry I didn't touch on K's K problems, and thanks for pointing it out. They are significant problems, but he seems like, yes, in the Bowker mode, but I would also throw out both Mark Reynolds and Paul Goldschmidt, D-back farm hands who struck out a lot and still were able to hit OK at the major league level. With those players, you never know how they do until you put them up here in the big show and see how they do. Hence why I said I was excited but was noncommittal as to what exactly we would get from these prospects, Peguero too.<br /><br />Relatively, I'm most excited about Peguero among the three prospects. His defense was cray cray, as my daughter might interject, as well as his stolen bases, and he's my best bet for a bench OF at minimum among the three for 2013.<br /><br />Like you, I can appreciate hackers who just can hit at any level, though he will have to prove he can in the majors and I'm worried that his contact rate has been dropping as he rose through the system. But if he can maintain that defense to a high level, he could be another of those classic Baltimore Orioles defenders who can't hit but sure could defend. If his speed can shut down Death Valley for opposing hitters, that would be huge for our pitching.<br /><br />Again, we wll see.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-51873918944228272132012-11-30T15:10:23.636-08:002012-11-30T15:10:23.636-08:00The point of what the above article talked about i...The point of what the above article talked about is that there is no 'choice' in a subscriber paying for the programming. Unlike the elective deals you have bought in the past, inclusion of Dodgers games as part of the base cable package means every single cable subscriber winds up paying for this - unless the cable company elects to suck up the cost ( ha ha ). The scam is, if 67K subscribers actually watch the games vs. The 18 million base, the vast majority of non-watching subscribers still have to pay their basic cable bill. Now matter how you slice it ( I.e. Every watcher of every game is a different unique, viewership jumps to Yankees levels, whatever - it is still a case of a large majority subsidizing a small minority including the the Dodgers as a team and Fox Sports as a business.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-19945265996661932642012-11-30T09:09:02.510-08:002012-11-30T09:09:02.510-08:00Interesting. I'm a Directv guy, some years I ...Interesting. I'm a Directv guy, some years I get the mlb package, some years I don't. I live in LA, I can watch games on Fox/TBS, ESPN, MLB network, and the Angels/Dodgers Fox Sports West/Prime Ticket. At some point directv becomes a factor, due to their exclusive with the mlb package.<br /><br />The wars that go on from time to time are pretty funny with programming. They will trot out the stars of a show to urge viewers to contact the service provider. There was a F/X war, and an A&E war this year alone. I don't pay a huge amount of attention to it, sort of notice in passing. $5/month increase could indeed break it open. That is a tremendous amount of passive (non-watching) viewers. Can you see the Dodgers trotting out Matt Kemp to urge viewers to rattle Directv's cage?<br /><br />I think its madness for Fox to pay that much for the rights if that's the kind of viewership getting pulled in. And if that is the YES viewership on the Yanks side, no wonder they're trimming to the luxury tax. Shankbonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04803824507120403397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-41193528046176965322012-11-30T06:42:40.988-08:002012-11-30T06:42:40.988-08:00According to this link, the Dodgers were pulling i...According to this link, the Dodgers were pulling in all of 67K viewers per game: http://www.videonuze.com/article/will-l-a-s-non-sports-fans-revolt-over-dodgers-mega-deal-<br /><br />The article also notes that the deal has nothing to do with the economics of the Dodgers games, but rather with the bet that the increased costs forced upon all cable subscribers by adding the Dodgers games into the basic cable tier won't cause major cable subscriber shifts. This actually makes economic sense to me. In very hedge fund fashion, the Dodgers' bet is that what worked for Peter, will work for Paul (them), only of course with double or triple what worked before.<br /><br />As the article was talking about $40 per subscriber at $4 billion-20 years/$200M-annual, the $6 billion-20 years/$300M-annual would imply $60 per subscriber per year.<br /><br />The question then is if this $5/month will be passively absorbed or will be the straw that broke the cable subscriber's back...<br /><br />Be that as it may, Shankbone's comment above also echoes what I have said earlier: whatever the TV deal that gets signed, it won't translate into direct salaries because the hedge fund still has to make money. If in fact the Dodgers aren't even betting on drawing viewers, there's even less reason to maintain or grow payroll - this entire exercise is pure gamesmanship to get Dodgers games included into basic cable.<br /><br />c1ueAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-38523664923977550092012-11-29T20:17:49.086-08:002012-11-29T20:17:49.086-08:00LA market is 40-45MM cable subscribers. Not sure ...LA market is 40-45MM cable subscribers. Not sure about viewers per game. I can't see Fox blindly bidding against itself for $300, or even $200MM that has been thrown around without getting some sort of equity concession. They have exclusive negotiating right now, but when it gets down to brass tacks?<br /><br />What about salary? I think the Dodgers have to put a hard cap at 250MM. And will eventually sour on luxury tax coughs. But at the moment they are all about changing the culture, and throwing mad money to supplement the bad farm system. I was a little surprised at them giving the Red Sox pitching along with all the salary relief though.Shankbonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04803824507120403397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-69878682950677595472012-11-29T20:12:32.118-08:002012-11-29T20:12:32.118-08:00I am beginning to think you and I are the only Bro...I am beginning to think you and I are the only Brown supporters, and we're looking for windmills. I am dumbfounded 2 months of crap production in the Eastern would bury a guy so much, but he does have his issues, there is no denying that.<br /><br />Kieschnick has some nice stats, and I was starting to get excited. The injury sucked, as did all of Nate the Greats. Roger K's contact rates though OGC... those damn contact rates. I fear a giant drop off when he hits the majors, and that he's a combo of Bowker and NTG.<br /><br />I'm still actually pretty excited about Frankie Peggs, despite all his problems. I am most likely too in love with contact rates, and the guy is a hacker. We'll see.<br /><br />My B/R sponsorship is almost up on Hector Sanchez. I have defended the guy a bunch, but truth be told, he's a good backup catcher, and a guy that I liked for his swing, long before the Belt wars broke out. I correctly predicted the Braintrust would push him, and they did, and now I think I gotta move on to somebody else. Not sure where Hector fits in, but if I take a step back and squint, he is their 2nd biggest trade chip they might consider. Not now, but if things get grim with injuries. I think the walks will fill in, the contact will get better with experience. It bums me out so much scorn has been heaped on a 22 year old the Gints gave the bump to.<br /><br />I'd like torres, his BA is so low, he really faltered last year. Maybe a return to the bay will jolt him, but he's going to be 35. I worry about swing slow downs.<br /><br />I'm sure it will scrap together. Every offseason is different. It is a shock to see patient Sabean, but he's got his line going towards Pagan and Scutaro, so he has no choice if that's the way he wants to go.Shankbonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04803824507120403397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-79042353808734471692012-11-29T19:12:14.765-08:002012-11-29T19:12:14.765-08:00$300 million a year = $2 million per game. @50K vi...$300 million a year = $2 million per game. @50K viewers per game, that's a CPM over $40,000 over an entire season. Super Bowl CPM peaked at $31.<br /><br />Even jumping viewership to 1 million per game, still outrageously expensive.<br /><br />C1ueAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-26197209679056374792012-11-29T15:35:16.461-08:002012-11-29T15:35:16.461-08:00Well, the Dodgers are a more and better establishe...Well, the Dodgers are a more and better established franchise in the region, kind of like the difference between the Yankees and Mets in NYC. That's why the Angels need to drop their prices to among the lowest in the majors to boost their attendance figures, their average price was $22 in the 2010 season, the Dodgers were $30. <br /><br />Even with that, the Dodgers still outdrew the Angels throughout much of their history together in the LA area, even during the Dodger's down years, they still outdrew the Angels, and not that long ago, the Dodgers drew double the attendance that the Angels drew. LAA's smart new billionaire owner knew that getting kids to become Angels fans builds interest going forward as they grow up and have spending cash, and that's why he dropped prices, to draw in not only more fans, but more families, to plan the seeds, inception style, to breed more Angel's fans.<br /><br />So yeah, the Dodgers getting much more than the Angels in the same market and same buyer makes a lot of sense, if you look at the history of attendance for both teams. <br /><br />And I doubt the Dodgers are giving up any large equity value in return for the deal, I can see up to 5%, like the Giants with KNBR, but 25% is just too large unless the guy is already looking to sell out his share to the buyer at some point.<br /><br />At $180M per year, LAD can afford to throw away $5M to draw away Wilson from the Giants, an great PR move, if not on the field. And if BWeez is right that he's back, that's an additional bonus for LA for tweaking our noses.<br /><br />I did not go through all the numbers, but remember that this deal is valuation now, whereas all those other ones are probably from a few years back. I would also note that the Yankees are not a fair comparison point because they owe the YES network to a large degree, and thus could give themselves a sweetheart deal, relatively, to boost the value of their YES network, which they can tell sell off at a higher price. In fact, I recall them doing something like that right now.<br /><br />Oh, here is a good article, haven't read it all yet, but looks good from perusal: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/dodgers-send-shock-waves-through-local-tv-landscape/obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-32071238656367696982012-11-29T10:23:31.383-08:002012-11-29T10:23:31.383-08:00And that makes sense to me.
Kieschnick had the ty...And that makes sense to me.<br /><br />Kieschnick had the type of season that usually gets the Giants brass excited about a prospect, until his injury (again). I can see them living with the strikeouts just to get his power, and his strong arm would make him a weapon in LF.<br /><br />Meanwhile, Peguero was amazing on the bases and in the field in his very short stints in September call-up mop-up time. He can't steal 1B, but if you PR him every few games, he's going to steal a lot of bases for your team. And his defense was so great that I have to wonder if he's good enough in CF to make up for the possibility that he don't have much of a batting line. He could be that traditional great fielding CF who can't hit a lick. We can afford that if Belt and Crawford can take things up another level in 2013 and just consistently perform as well as they did in stretches in 2012.<br /><br />Brown is a long-shot, but some players don't put on the show toiling in the minors, maybe the chance to win a major league spot focuses him more? Though that could go both ways, in a recent interview, he said that he was distracted by "stuff" in the AFL last season, and thus he's doing better this year by being more focused (he threaded that needle pretty well by not saying that he was screwing around in 2011, but was just not as focused as now, he's a good talker).<br /><br />All three possibilities excite me, as one who appreciates home-grown starters who could do possibly do well if given the chance, UNlike the Ortmeiers and Frandsens and Bococks of prior years.<br /><br />Thrown an interesting non-tender in there, and that's a good mix for 2013.<br /><br />I would also note that Torres was non-tendered, wouldn't mind seeing him get a small deal to come back, maybe even a minor league deal if he's OK with that. He can be a great 4th OF for us again, and basically replace Blanco's role from 2012, who replaced Torres' old role.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-27173115558792226762012-11-29T10:11:57.774-08:002012-11-29T10:11:57.774-08:00According to a recent news blurb, apparently the G...According to a recent news blurb, apparently the Giants thought that they had a deal with Ross last season and then he and his reps upped their demands (would have been interesting to know how much the Giants were offering and what Ross was now asking for), angering Sabean and gang.<br /><br />Can't disagree with much you speculate on the various players, seems to be a seller's market now with the Upton deal, even the Torii Hunter deal sounded a little high to me. <br /><br />I know that you can be flexible, just like you know that I can be flexible.<br /><br />Sabean usually is the aggressive one where he moves on quickly. Perhaps he thought that Pagan was close enough that he didn't want to move on so quickly with Hunter, so maybe his talks with others, like Victorino, convinced him that he could have a good alternative even if Hunter signed quickly. Or maybe he was willing to wait until now, for the non-tenders and the Winter Meetings, thinking that he has enough irons in the fire to replace Pagan during this period if there is no resolution soon.<br /><br />As you often say, it will be interesting to see (I know I'm paraphrasing, my memory is not as good anymore...)<br /><br />But I'm good with the waiting. DrB's post on the flexibility that having Blanco gives the Giants captures a lot of what I was thinking. Also, the Giants, I would think, is not adverse to leaving LF open to competition for Kieschnick, Peguero, and Brown to try to win a starting position, with Blanco ready and able to play either LF or CF, as necessary. <br /><br />As much as I liked having Pagan, he's not an ideal leadoff hitter nor is he great defensively. Blanco, while not stellar so far in his career in CF, is slightly above average while Pagan and other alternatives are roughly one win lower on a seasonal rate. And I have to think that placing Blanco permanently in CF would help him improve in his consistency in fielding there, particularly dealing with Death Valley. To boot, he gets on base just as well and steals bases just as well, perhaps better.<br /><br />Mind you, Pagan is an upgrade, but at what cost? (to your point)<br /><br />So I see the pursuit of Pagan more akin to Uribe than Huff in 2010, a nice to have at the right price, but it's not the end of our competitiveness if he moves on. And at that, I can accept lack of aggressiveness on the Giants, as I don't want them to overpay for Pagan either (which is another way they could have gone with aggressiveness with the bird, I would add).<br /><br />I would love to have Cody back, and 2 years at $12M is doable (like DeRosa and Roberts deals), but with the Upton deal upping the ante, I have to think that he would want something in the $15-20M range for 2 years now.<br /><br />This deal just puts a damper on free agent signing for the Giants right now, luckily they got Affeldt to the dotted line so fast, else he could be gone too and I feel that he was more critical to success in 2013 than either Scutaro or Pagan. I can see them being aggressive in picking through the non-tenders for some gem somewhere, along with the plan above with Blanco starting and the young players and any non-tender signings competing.<br />obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-52777988744112715002012-11-29T09:50:41.382-08:002012-11-29T09:50:41.382-08:00Yeah, after sleeping on it, Upton's deal is ju...Yeah, after sleeping on it, Upton's deal is just a big shocker to me, salary is just an escalating metric in baseball and it just took another big jump, so I'm beginning to see you (and other's) point on this.<br /><br />This is crazy though. Upton's salary during his arbitration years have hewed to the salary range I would think he and Pagan should get, roughly $8-9M. With some inflation, $10M per year looks possible. The Braves basically just raised the value of middling CF 50% with that signing.<br /><br />And at $15M per year, seems like the Braves just spent their Christmas bonus from ESPN on a player. (I think the ESPN contract added $15-20M in revenues to each team's bottom-line)<br /><br />So I can see your point now about Scutaro. If Upton only got something in the $10M AAV range that I expected Pagan to get, then Scutaro is not getting a raise. But even at his advanced age, he's probably getting a raise from someone.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-74018389223225992162012-11-29T08:25:59.119-08:002012-11-29T08:25:59.119-08:00I don't see at all why Scutaro couldn't ge...I don't see at all why Scutaro couldn't get a raise. Yes, he didn't do all that well in Colorado, but the Rockies were a terrible team almost since the 2nd week of the season. I for one don't fault any player for not being at their best for a terrible team.<br /><br />I'd also note that Torii Hunter is 37, and he just got the biggest deal ever in his life.<br /><br />As for Pagan, yes, it does look indeed that he's going to be $12M/yr for 3 years or more.<br /><br />c1ueAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-9910000566832865272012-11-28T18:35:06.623-08:002012-11-28T18:35:06.623-08:00Yep, that 2 year deal they were holding strong on ...Yep, that 2 year deal they were holding strong on just won't hunt. They should up it to 3/30MM and they'll get outbid. C'est la guerre. Maybe there are some domino's left stranded. I wouldn't be terribly opposed to Josh Hamilton at 3/75MM max. I also won't hold my breath on some team exceeding that. Victorino, I'd do the Huffy contract. Most likely they need to look at lessers... Cody Ross at a Sabes special of 2/12MM would be OK. I do not want Bourne or Swisher at these type of prices, I bet they both get 5 year deals as well. The Tigers were smart to go aggressive early with Hunter. I wish we did that. See, OGC, I can be flexible. I wish Sabey Sabes got all bird in the hand this offseason instead of waiting it out. Shankbonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04803824507120403397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-8742956058478194022012-11-28T16:00:36.337-08:002012-11-28T16:00:36.337-08:00I agree that they need to get all that they can ge...I agree that they need to get all that they can get. I just don't see anyone jumping, particularly for Scutaro. He only got $6M per year in his last deal and he's now 3 years older. And remember, when the Giants got him, he was hitting very poorly.<br /><br />But with Upton getting 5 years, $75.25M, who knows? I now agree with you about Pagan, he's going to get a big payday now.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-60978648017505288682012-11-28T11:39:56.966-08:002012-11-28T11:39:56.966-08:00I actually think, if Lincecum is up for it, that t...I actually think, if Lincecum is up for it, that the Giants bring up Surkamp or another edge pitcher and do a rookie/Lincecum combo. <br /><br />That would be creative indeed.<br /><br />Scutaro and Pagan - I'm still thinking the numbers bandied about here are much too low. If they stick around, it is going to be $8M/yr and $10+M/yr, 2 year deals. They're both not getting any younger and need to reap hay while the sun shines.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-79189165170245793842012-11-28T11:36:50.604-08:002012-11-28T11:36:50.604-08:00Yankees pitching isn't terrible - especially g...Yankees pitching isn't terrible - especially given their bandbox ballpark.<br /><br />But their offense is very, very suspect. The Yanks need 1s or 2s in order to win because of their ballpark and division.<br /><br />My 2 cents...<br /><br />c1ueAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-90564587294844201662012-11-28T11:33:46.594-08:002012-11-28T11:33:46.594-08:00The Dodgers TV deal, even in the article which out...The Dodgers TV deal, even in the article which outed it, seems ludicrously overpriced. The Angels are getting $147M/year and also gave up 25% team equity - yet we are to believe the Dodgers are going to get 60% more annual in the exact same market? With the exact same buyer?<br /><br />Doesn't seem to make sense to me unless they also cough up 50% equity - which in turn assumes a 50% jump in equity valuation over the ridiculous $2B paid for the Dodgers what, less than a year ago?<br /><br />In this case, the annual take is $180M + $60M for the equity - but payroll isn't $240M, it is $180M. That number I could believe although there are still 2 major belief gaps to overcome: the instant upward valuation of the Dodgers purchase AND the same market/same buyer payout.<br /><br />To put this in perspective, $327M/year from the above speculation plus the Angels deal nets more annual revenue than the next top 5 teams' TV deal put together (from the LA Times article) - and that includes the Yankees, Mets, Rangers, Astros, and Padres.<br /><br />c1ueAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-34178275337990256432012-11-28T10:41:20.693-08:002012-11-28T10:41:20.693-08:00Pineda, assuming he returns back as good as he was...Pineda, assuming he returns back as good as he was before, would have been a good 1/2 to pair with CC for 2013. Then you got Pettitte as a nice #3 to follow them (assuming he is healthy). Lastly, you got a number of choices. Kuroda as a good #4 starter in the bunch, though perhaps Phil Hughes or Ivan Nova might be OK too.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-77920524334190126012012-11-27T17:02:16.596-08:002012-11-27T17:02:16.596-08:00I think its a middle barrel, with the only bright ...I think its a middle barrel, with the only bright spot is CC. They'd look a lot better with another 1/2 instead of solid 3s across the board and Nova, who I think does show promise but is a 4/5 guy right now.Shankbonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04803824507120403397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-28680080588849923542012-11-27T17:00:10.390-08:002012-11-27T17:00:10.390-08:00Yeah, its sort of apples and oranges, but its my R...Yeah, its sort of apples and oranges, but its my Randy Winn point - you don't go chasing into the middle market of OFs for the 3/4 types. You develop those. Its a big waste of time to be paying 9-12MM for production you can find at 5-10% cost and 85-90% efficiency. Speed fades, not much power, and not great BA/OBP. So what are you paying for exactly? Veteranness? Now sometimes you're forced into it, but I like the year to year on these types of guys. Now that the buzz has worn off on the World Series, its time to look at Pagan objectively, and I'm glad the Giants are treating his negotiation the way they appear to, with only 2 years on the table. That is a smart move, and its coming on top of mostly smart moves the last 4-5 years, especially with an eye towards the long term.Shankbonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04803824507120403397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-71080676769125067212012-11-27T15:53:41.104-08:002012-11-27T15:53:41.104-08:00Yeah, Ichiro signing with the Yanks was a strong r...Yeah, Ichiro signing with the Yanks was a strong rumor in recent days, so that was coming.<br /><br />Yeah, and they gave Whiteside a split contract, $200K minors, $650K majors.<br /><br />The thing is, Pettitte is still a pretty good pitcher, his stats look great for 2012, except that he missed 60% of the season. If he's pulling a Rocket by resting in the first half and then signing to be someone's starter, I guess that would work too. I guess they will put up with the drama until he's no longer performing well.<br /><br />And their pitching staff is lacking, but they were expecting to include Michael Pineda to the rotation and he Tommy Johned during spring training, leaving them scrambling. If Pineda was his normal self, him, CC, Hughes, and Pettitte is a nice quartet, and Kuroda is pretty good too. Also, Ivan Nova had good peripheral stats, so his ERA appears to be inflated. His xFIP has him at 3.92 and SIERA 3.84 for 2012, vs. his actual 5.02 (though his tERA is 5.36!). Nice 2.73 K/BB, which if sustained, is good. So their starting rotation looks OK to me, are you letting Andy spoil the whole barrel of pitchers?obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-26670549864383150182012-11-27T15:37:58.204-08:002012-11-27T15:37:58.204-08:00I understand, but I feel sad seeing Timmy coming i...I understand, but I feel sad seeing Timmy coming in last on many people's lists, even after Zito. I still think Big Time Jimmy Tim is still in there, and I would not be surprised to see him next season, after he gets himself into proper physical shape.<br /><br />Roster looks good, yeah, I can go for most of that. I really doubt Wilson is ready to start the season, who do you think will hold the spot warm for him? Hembree? Otero? Machi? Other? TBD?<br /><br />I see the Swisher rumors, but I also see the Victorino rumors as well. I have to think that the Giants will pursue the Flyin' Hawaiian the hardest among him, Pagan, and Swisher because of his combination of fair value cost, years, on-base ability, speed, and defense. <br /><br />As I delineated on DrB's comparison between Victorino and Pagan, I don't think that they are exactly the same type of player, but for the expected price for each, both annually and in total contract value, Victorino appears to be the better value, particularly with Brown potentially ready to start in the 2013-14 timeframe. But Victorino does not appear to be a huge improvement over Blanco either, so I'm reaching the point where I don't want to pay too much for him, given his apparent drop in abilities in recent seasons.<br /><br />And as DrB outlined excellently in a recent post, Blanco is a good enough substitute should the CF free agents fall through for us, we should pursue and see if we can get a good value, but not feel like we need to sign anyone just because we want to repeat in 2013, like when we signed all those free agents while trying to win one with Bonds around, some like Benitez and Rowand were clear stretches, with enough question marks that only a near peak performance could result in a fair deal, and neither did. obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-26323293145584336932012-11-27T15:22:21.960-08:002012-11-27T15:22:21.960-08:00I should have noted that I think Weezy will return...I should have noted that I think Weezy will return most probably.<br /><br />I'm seeing the Doyers/D-gers :^D trying to sign Wilson as a scenario because they have so much money floating around that they can do stupid stuff like that in the market just to screw around with the Giants. They clearly have tried that before with Schmidt, Huff, Uribe (probably others but these come to mind fastest), and they have signed a large number of former Giants prospects to run through their farm system. But to your point, yes, probably not likely, but I wanted to point out that possibility and why.<br /><br />If there has ever been a player more tied to his team, it is Brian Wilson. I suppose you can take his act elsewhere, but it would never be the same. I think his wacky personality fits living in SF and I just can't see the Giants low-balling Wilson either, though they should be smart business people and not overpay either. Given all those, I think he is staying around. That contract is like what Shankbone's been throwing out, plus you added an team option, which I like too, and I think he would be happy enough with that to sign.<br /><br />He may be crazy, but he's not stupid, as the saying goes, in any good negotiation, you start at the extremes then move to consensus. Starting out in the middle is stupid in any negotiation (and I've learned that over time, because I would always start out at what I think is the fair eventually mid-point while others would make the extreme demands. It is all part of the dance, part of the game).obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.com