tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post8627054603009816520..comments2024-02-23T20:49:09.057-08:00Comments on obsessivegiantscompulsive: Your 2015 Giants: Aoki is A-OK With Meobsessivegiantscompulsivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-76557549593047024762015-02-12T13:44:45.309-08:002015-02-12T13:44:45.309-08:00Just figured out some bad news regarding his 2014 ...Just figured out some bad news regarding his 2014 performance. His BABIP was sky high, like it was in his first season. And broken down by months, he was on a massive hot streak from April to July, but then his BABIP fell to his career norms in August and September, to end the season on a down note. Plus, AT&T is tougher on RHH than the Marlin's homepark, so his BABIP will take a hit playing in AT&T. He was also abnormally high in his LD% at 25%, whereas his previous high was 20% and career prior to 2014 was only 17% (versus MLB average of 20%). <br /><br />Ugh, a lot of bad signs that he might not be able to hit well enough to make up for the loss of the Panda. The only good news I would draw from this is that if he does falter (or rather when), how far he falls will determine how much playing time Arias and Adrianza will get playing 3B. He's probably more of a danger to underperform than Aoki is.<br /><br />obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-43784527113378515422015-02-12T13:32:58.760-08:002015-02-12T13:32:58.760-08:00Final signing: McGehee for $4.8M. Midpoint was $...Final signing: McGehee for $4.8M. Midpoint was $4.7M between ask of $5.4M and offer of $4.0M. Looks like the Giants bumped it up from midpoint to welcome their new player. He was projected by MLBTR to get $3.5M, so he beat that handily. <br /><br />The projection probably took his 2014 salary to heart. But using his 2012 salary, which was governed by arbitration rules (his 2013 salary was as a free agent looking, really begging, for a job), represented a market rate of $6.35M (using 40% of market rate for first year arbs). His agreed upon salary of $4.8M for 2015 represents a market rate of $6.0M, which is not far from the $5.08M he would have gotten based on his 2012 arbitration market rate base.<br /><br />That seems to make sense. In 2012, if you combine his three prior seasons, that worked out to a 101 OPS+. In 2014, he had a 99 OPS+, just short. So his 2015 market rate also came up just short of his 2012 market rate, and that excludes any salary inflation too, not sure what the effect would be right not (and don't feel like thinking about it right now).obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-7851961612477480242015-02-02T12:16:56.642-08:002015-02-02T12:16:56.642-08:00I was off, Belt signed next, for $3.6M for one sea...I was off, Belt signed next, for $3.6M for one season, and it was below the mid-point of $3.75M. I guess Belt's side stretched their target too much, and realized it, else they would have been willing to go into arbitration and fight for their number. This works out to $9M market price, which seems low to me, but probably factors in the fact that he didn't play much either and had a down season. <br /><br />The main thing is that he got a bit of a raise, and is signed and ready for the season. McGehee last...obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-2428937801775197342015-01-27T15:12:16.085-08:002015-01-27T15:12:16.085-08:00Crawford signs for exactly middle, $3.175M, betwee...Crawford signs for exactly middle, $3.175M, between his ask and the Giants offer. ($3.95M/$2.4M). <br /><br />I guess his agents is hoping to get his breakout season in 2015 (which I had been hoping would be 2014) and get that boost in salary they are hoping for with that asking price. Basically that ask priced Crawford at just short of average (roughly $10M is the implied market rate, using the 40%/60%/80% rule which seems to work more often than it don't). But hey, if you don't ask for it, you don't get it for sure. And SS seems to get priced less than OF (all infield except for 1B, really), so that implied market rate could be average (most estimates value at $6-7M per WAR this off-season, that I've seen).<br /><br />Crawford's spread was bigger by both amount and percentage of ask than either Belt or McGehee, and yet got done first. And given it was the mid-point, yet it took this long to finalize, suggests that the other two are tougher deals to finalize.<br /><br />Next I assume they are working on McGehee, which should be easier since they probably only want a one year deal with him and the spread is not as wide, then Belt who is probably the tougher case, as I noted in the main post.<br /><br />Looking at McGehee's prior (first and only) arbitration contract, his $2,537,500 deal has an implied market rate of $6.34M, and advancing it to his third arbitration year (it looks like he was released and signed to a deal last season), results in a target salary of $5.075M vs. the $4.7M mid-point that the ask/offer results in. $4.8M would result in an implied market rate of $6M (or roughly 1 WAR), so it will be interesting to see what he ends up signing for. obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-8326082235569962642015-01-26T07:18:48.243-08:002015-01-26T07:18:48.243-08:00My pleasure.
You'd have enjoyed the frothing ...My pleasure.<br /><br />You'd have enjoyed the frothing every time I posted it there. Elnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-61074304960492963802015-01-23T09:55:02.808-08:002015-01-23T09:55:02.808-08:00I'm still laughing!I'm still laughing!obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-87692489359802263442015-01-23T09:54:46.933-08:002015-01-23T09:54:46.933-08:00Wow, just went through his archives. Lots of big ...Wow, just went through his archives. Lots of big words negative on the Giants, but absolute, ABSOLUTE silence when the Giants win each series, despite his protestations. <br /><br />"This team has bonded, but there's no magic there"<br /><br />Yet each and every series win, while he's there to complain leading up to it, he's such a big fan of the Giants that he can't even be bothered to celebrate the victory with a post. Oy, wow, words fail me....obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-19158528309498570122015-01-23T09:42:16.225-08:002015-01-23T09:42:16.225-08:00Hey, perhaps that explains why he don't write ...Hey, perhaps that explains why he don't write anymore, Barry has been gone for a long while...obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-83604313988837580902015-01-23T09:41:38.334-08:002015-01-23T09:41:38.334-08:00Oh my GOD! I just went into his website and I fee...Oh my GOD! I just went into his website and I feel like it's Back to the Future, it's like it was in the late 2000's before all the championships except that he's ranting NOW. Curse you for opening Pandora's box for me!!!<br /><br />:^D<br /><br />Thanks again for sharing. Whew! I could feel my blood pressure rise with each and every comment I read on his Aoki rant. As Shankbone astutely noted (and reminded me), hard to be bitter anymore, but based on all the people commenting on his site, there appears to be a large underbelly of these people still around. <br /><br />And that saddens me. I know that I'm not the best communicator, not even close, which is why I try so hard to explain every detail, and part of me feel responsible for not getting all the Naysayers to see the light about the greatness of this period for the Giants. <br /><br />I know I think differently. I've always admired the ant for their social behavior. The goal for them is all about the colony, protecting it, serving it. I feel the same way about our colony of Giants fans, and I feel like I let down all the people who are still bitter and not understanding of the ways the Giants have been run, and successfully run. I understand the phrase, "leave no man behind". Yet I must, else I would go crazy, so I'm disappointed in myself for doing that. <br /><br />So the flame flickers and sucks me in. I really need to see what Dyer has to say about the three championships. Does he claim luck? Or does he sees the good but accentuates the bad (as he appears to do in his comments)? <br /><br />I feel like answering each and every point just in that post, I saw so much that was wrong, and yet that would probably take me all day to do, and I would just get aggravated by the whole exchange, because he won't see the light. Naysayers never seem to. Even Grant at MCC, he is still flogging that dead horse. And people still join in. obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-86003732828566601342015-01-23T09:14:04.439-08:002015-01-23T09:14:04.439-08:00ROTFL!!! Thanks for the great laugh to start my d...ROTFL!!! Thanks for the great laugh to start my day, greatly appreciated!<br /><br />Have a great one!obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-12300360947917112112015-01-23T07:01:44.073-08:002015-01-23T07:01:44.073-08:00I too got into it at OBM until I realized that it ...I too got into it at OBM until I realized that it meant <b>O</b>nly <b>B</b>arry <b>M</b>attersElnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-51677109492576694972015-01-22T08:24:05.962-08:002015-01-22T08:24:05.962-08:00Eh, any tier of players will bring it's own at...Eh, any tier of players will bring it's own attendant share of risk. Free agent = risk, no matter what tier. Thanks for pointing out where he writes, I could not find him at all, searching.<br /><br />Well, that's mostly my recollection too and why I stopped reading his blog too, after a while. It was like tag team wrestling there, he would go off, then there would be one or two regulars who would jump in and, to your point, raise the rancor up a level. So, yeah, I would not have fit in there. <br /><br />Perhaps he was smart enough to know that both sides needed to be represented, realizing that his one-sided ranting would not work without a counter argument? Like in Saturday Night Live, when Dan Ackroyd would say, "Jane, you ignorant slut"? Hey, I was a bit confused too, I knew I would be different there, as well. But I gave it good consideration and while he promised me a much larger audience than what I was getting (still getting), I was not in it for views and happy to simply write for others like me, without getting into it with hordes of negative fans. At that time, I had enough of that posting at MCC.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-65087836264586832702015-01-21T22:04:12.291-08:002015-01-21T22:04:12.291-08:00It was looking at Dyer's sour comments about t...It was looking at Dyer's sour comments about the Giants' signing of "second tier," cheap players that made me post what I did, having earlier read your reasoned take on Aoki. Dyer is on "Giants' Cove," NOT to be confused with the lively "Cove Chatter."<br /><br />I'm glad, or at least relieved, to know something good about John Perricone, whose only previous claim in his favor, from my way of thinking, was his sturdy defense of Bonds and his excoriation of Bonds's attackers. Mostly my recollection of his site was of his own fierce indignation and disgust, and a posse of accompanying posters whose decibel level was much higher yet. I have a hard time imagining you in that context.campanarinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-76494366890122502582015-01-21T16:03:30.139-08:002015-01-21T16:03:30.139-08:00Wow, Scutaro was DFAed and no chance any team will...Wow, Scutaro was DFAed and no chance any team will select him, so he'll end up rehabbing with the team while waiting to see if his back surgery that he had around Christmas time to fuse his spine would help him any.<br /><br />Some people are upset over his contract, from what I saw at one newspaper's blog, but Scutaro did very well for us initially in the contract until his injuries took over. In any case, he earned what he got from us with all the extra hitting he did in 2012 in both the regular season as well as the playoffs. Plus threw in a good year in 2013 until he hit the DL. He was a good Giants, all the best to him, hopefully he can recover enough to contribute during September. <br /><br />Shankbone had a great post on it: http://www.yougottalikethesekids.com/2015/01/giants-designate-blockbuster.htmlobsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-59624645124376125602015-01-21T09:21:18.348-08:002015-01-21T09:21:18.348-08:00Good points re: Aoki vs. Morse. It balances out. ...Good points re: Aoki vs. Morse. It balances out. rWAR, which focuses more on what he actually did, had him at 3+ WAR in 2012-2013, before the 1 WAR in 2014, while fWAR, which focuses more on his stats given what is considered standard metrics, had him roughly at 2 WAR, plus or minus, for the three seasons, but summed up, they are both roughly the same.<br /><br />Not sure what brought on the discussion about other sites, but I can't say anything bad about John, though I agree with you that he tended to be of that generation of Giants fans who could see no good in the team. He kindly let me post my draft analysis study on his website for discussion and my further thoughts, after I had it published on Yahoo and Fanhome, and then at some point offered to have me join his team and write to his blog. At that point, I wasn't sure how long I would write or if the will would be there to do it long-term, so I kindly turned him down. Yeah, last time I checked, and it was a while back, he had stopped posting to his website.<br /><br />I stopped checking out every Giants website after a while (though I still added links to any and all if they contacted me), as I realized that I was tired of the never ending battles and that nothing would ever get resolved except by time, and devoted more of my time to my blog, where I could post my thoughts. That is what drove me to create my business plan section, so that I could just point people who wonder what I'm saying to my plan for explanation. As the trophies have piled up, I feel less the need to blog and have been happy to contribute to other good sites like DrB's and Shankbone. Also, Lefty Malo, Raising Cain, CoveChatter, and Giants Potential. <br /><br />But I've loved sabermetrics since I bought Bill James first book, so I'll definitely continue to blog, particularly continuing my study of PQS, and when there is big news about the Giants, but as long term readers might have noticed, my output has been lessening over the years.<br /><br />Though the way I write, it would be like noticing that Niagara Falls was flowing less water... :^D <br /><br />Never heard of Dyer, I'll have to check him out, for contrast. Reading negative viewpoints is actually good for blogging as then I get fodder for blog posts. Many posts have originally been a comment elsewhere that I compiled and condensed (some) here. But too much just gets me all agitated, and as Glover said in all those Lethal movies, "I'm too old for this...".obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-54439868408648933642015-01-20T20:31:28.888-08:002015-01-20T20:31:28.888-08:00Aoki may have had only 1 rWAR in 2014, but Fangrap...Aoki may have had only 1 rWAR in 2014, but Fangraphs has him at 2.3. That is more than double the fWAR we got from the man he's replacing, Morse.<br /><br />Here and on Shankbone's and DrB's sites, the prevailing dyspepsia of MCC provides amusement and bemusement, too. It used to be that if I wanted to find dyspepsia about the Giants to a grotesque, mouth-foaming degree, I would turn to John Perricone's blog. (Why would anyone want to read the rants of roiling despair and Schadenfreude? Because as the team established itself, even in bad years, as one of the perennial golden teams in baseball, the rants became more glaringly comical, and as World Series victories followed one another, hopscotching from even numbered year to even numbered year, the rants would die down into amazed sputters, a fitting end for them.). If any readers of this blog of OGC's, thoughtful, well argued, and rationally upbeat, have the same curiosity that I do about bloggers who toil to turn the finest wine grapes into bad vinegar, I can't send them to Perricone, who the last time I looked had given up. But next best is a chap called Richard Dyer, who managed to denounce the Giants while they were sailing towards their third World Series Championship in five years, but when they won, fell deathly silent. I mention him as a remarkable sideshow to fine blogs like this one, DrB's, and Shankbone's. He is less fun, because less froth-lipped, than Perricone, but he will do to gaze at. Or shun.campanarinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-5677791204677544502015-01-19T21:21:57.839-08:002015-01-19T21:21:57.839-08:00Signing is official: http://www.mlbtraderumors.co...Signing is official: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/01/giants-nori-aoki-agree-to-one-year-deal.html<br /><br />Apparently the team option can become a mutual option if he meets a certain target (which is unknown, but generally related to games played).<br /><br />Forgot to speculate on who might be dropped from the 40-man roster in order to add Aoki. Heston would be my best guess right now. Maybe Jarrett Parket. Oh, I didn't realize that Angel Villalona was dropped off the 40-man, when did that happen? <br /><br />And I count 41 players on the roster right now, so he's already off: http://sanfrancisco.giants.mlb.com/team/roster_40man.jsp?c_id=sf<br /><br />I don't see any trade happening to clear space, most teams would just wait for waivers. obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.com