tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post7603789009758612894..comments2024-02-23T20:49:09.057-08:00Comments on obsessivegiantscompulsive: Giants 2018 Second Round Draft Pick: Sean Hjelle, RHPobsessivegiantscompulsivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-58748801055309806092018-07-03T11:01:31.660-07:002018-07-03T11:01:31.660-07:00Thanks! Appreciate the note, I will continue to t...Thanks! Appreciate the note, I will continue to try to do my best!obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-87433644215340916522018-06-10T19:44:39.672-07:002018-06-10T19:44:39.672-07:00Great write up as usual. Really love your work, be...Great write up as usual. Really love your work, been reading for years, keep it up!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-8655206854765836472018-06-08T15:17:10.111-07:002018-06-08T15:17:10.111-07:00Wrenzie wrote up a nice post on Bart and Hjelle, p...Wrenzie wrote up a nice post on Bart and Hjelle, plus paragraphs on the Day 2 draftees: <br /><br />http://giantprospective.blogspot.com/2018/06/2018-mlb-draft-day-1-day-2.html?m=1<br /><br />He likes the top 2 Giants picks. He's the first I've seen to mention Gold Glove in regards to Bart, plus makes clearer what the impact of his arm is. Very good details on Bart, as well as Hjelle. He talked about the perfect timing, as Posey is nearing his last days as a catcher (whenever that may be), and now we have his heir apparent, in Bart, a rarity in sports to have two good players in a row, covering the 2010's with Posey and 2020's with Bart. <br /><br />He noted some caution about Hjelle, but overall thinks he's a 3-4 starting pitcher, or could be good as reliever, since he can push his velocity up in short bursts to 97. However, he don't think Hjelle can add much to his frame, and thus won't be gaining much weight or, thus, velocity. That's all he gots!obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-57831393601538166162018-06-07T14:23:36.852-07:002018-06-07T14:23:36.852-07:00Hjelle, like Suarez, is a second round pick. Also...Hjelle, like Suarez, is a second round pick. Also similarly, both were not considered to have any out-pitch, both were solid pitchers who could throw strikes, have nice selection of pitches, the variety of which is used to keep hitters off balance, but nothing that would get hitters out, as a go-to pitch. <br /><br />Suarez took a little less than three years from being drafted to reach the majors. That would mean bringing up Hjelle around the start of the 2021 season. <br /><br />Samardzija's contract would be over after 2020. He would be 35 YO then, we are not even sure if he will even be effective still, though, given that he didn't start full-time starting as a pitcher until really late, he might still be, and be retained on a two-year contract to 2022. <br /><br />Cueto's last year of his contract would be 2021. He will be 35 YO in 2022. His throwing style is what keeps him effective, so an aging arm would not necessarily mean ineffectiveness. Still, after seeing his issues with his arm this season, seems like a ticking bomb that will explode at some point going forward. <br /><br />We also don't know what's going on with Bumgarner. Lots of people want to trade him or simply let him go as a free agent, pointing to Cain and Lincecum as reasons why. I like that the Giants keep the name players around to the bitter end. It might not be fiscally conservative, but it is certainly fan friendly, in my mind. I expect him to be signed to a long term deal, probably 5 years, which is all that Cain got, Lincecum was offered, and I think Belt and Crawford got as well. <br /><br />2019 will be his last option year, but I expect him to sign an extension, that includes the $12M option being picked up, to bring down the average annual value for CBT purposes, plus a 5 year contract, probably in the $25M per year range ($23-27M range).<br /><br />I assume that Stratton and Suarez will still be around, and hopefully Beede too, by 2021. I think long-term it's Bumgarner, Cueto, Samardzija, Stratton, Suarez to 2020, with Beede pushing to join the rotation in 2019-2020, plus Blach and perhaps Holland, as depth or long relief purposes (I can see Holland be the long reliever, with Blach as middle relief, 2 IP at a time).<br /><br />Samardzija leaving probably after 2020, and Cueto in his last year in 2021, there is at least one spot opening up for Hjelle and Beede to fight over (Blach too). <br /><br />And we don't know yet whether Suarez is for sure in the starting rotation. But his bad ERA is BABIP induced, his FIP right now is best in the staff aside from Cueto and Bumgarner. At 3.89, and xFIP even lower, at 3.22 (SIERA at 3.39), all signs point to him being at least a middle rotation starter, if not a top of rotation guy, behind the aces. obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-75147315347815308942018-06-07T10:18:42.309-07:002018-06-07T10:18:42.309-07:00Bart, like Posey, was one of the top players picke...Bart, like Posey, was one of the top players picked in the draft. Posey reached the majors at the end of his first full pro season, and was made a starter by the time it was two years after he was drafted. At that rate, Bart would reach the majors at the end of 2019 and be made the starting catcher in mid-2020, when Posey would be 33 years old. <br /><br />But Posey is not Molina, he will be part of the calculus in the determination when he's done as starting catcher. Plus, the Giants have the luxury of slow playing Bart's promotion because they have Posey starting.<br /><br />But the ticking clock that I think will govern the change, and it could be coming as soon as two years from now, is Posey's framing ability. As I showed previously, he's on the downside of his career there. It happens to all catchers, sometime in their early 30's, generally. Even Yadier Molina hit the wall a couple of years ago already. <br /><br />Posey is at -0.7 RAA, a -0.19 per game rate, which continues the decline from last season. Last season he was at 1.5 RAA, +0.14/game, his first year of his decline, for, in 2016, he was at 26.8 RAA, +1.75/game, which led the majors in RAA, and close to the best in per game. He as at 15.2/1.22 in 2015. <br /><br />And from my research of other leaders, once you hit your decline, there is no plateau to okay, you are not even average, from what I recall. So Posey could need to be replaced soon.<br /><br />So I can see Posey and Bart moving into a co-starter role as soon as 2020. And as Bochy noted, we'll see then were we are at, maybe Belt moves to LF, we'll see where he's at.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-72965107723742389662018-06-07T09:54:29.884-07:002018-06-07T09:54:29.884-07:00Read this subsequently, I wish this was available ...Read this subsequently, I wish this was available to viewers, like they were before, but Barr spoke to reporters about Bart and Hjelle (would provide link but don't recall right now, will if I find it again), and he noted that part of the calculus of selecting the two was their closest to the majors. <br /><br />Ah, did not find what I read before, as it was more complete, but Haft noted in his coverage, " "We're ecstatic to be able to get two guys who can contribute to the Giants in the near future," scouting director John Barr said."<br /><br />https://www.mlb.com/giants/news/giants-draft-catcher-joey-bart-no-2-overall/c-279779080<br /><br />Nothing specific, but near future to me means 2-3 years for both Bart and Hjelle, less for Bart, more for Hjelle.<br /><br />Kind of similar to the two guys I think of as parallels for the two: Bart-Posey, Hjelle-Suarez. obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.com