tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post7318238223417744225..comments2024-02-23T20:49:09.057-08:00Comments on obsessivegiantscompulsive: 2016 Giants: May PQSobsessivegiantscompulsivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-78494524972355915022016-06-21T22:00:29.819-07:002016-06-21T22:00:29.819-07:00Sorry, I know you trust the Giants FO, was just ta...Sorry, I know you trust the Giants FO, was just talking from my viewpoint.<br /><br />I would love to be able to evaluate relievers better. Until someone solves the issue with leverage, it's very much an art, not that evaluating other players are an exact science yet, but closer than relief pitchers. <br /><br />Clearly, though, a playoff team needs to have a good bullpen overall. Tom Tippett researched this at his old site before joining the Red Sox, and found that teams needed to not only be good offensively and in starting pitching, but also high in the ranks of relief, as well.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-72284124946571749892016-06-18T17:33:22.969-07:002016-06-18T17:33:22.969-07:00Thanks for the lucid explanation as to PQS vs Game...Thanks for the lucid explanation as to PQS vs Game Score, and for the further definition of PQS, for which I needed a convenient reference point, as might other continuing readers of your blog, and certainly any new readers.<br /><br />I too trust the Giants FO. But I am interested in evaluating the call for upgrading the bullpen this season, of which I doubt the pressing need, and I dislike not having a reasonable statistical method for evaluating any potentially evaluable and significant aspect of baseball. campanarinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-59705570457337813832016-06-18T01:30:18.162-07:002016-06-18T01:30:18.162-07:00As far as trades go, you basically never want to t...As far as trades go, you basically never want to trade any prospects who looks to be a good starter just to get a reliever. Thus you need to rely on your scouts to make the right judgement on who to trade. So far, Sabean et al has been very good at limiting losses of prospect talent in trades. <br /><br />It would make me very nervous to see the Giants trade for a top reliever by giving someone who looks to be good. Heck, nervous for any starter too. At least until the prospect don't look good any more.<br /><br />I remember regretting Caruso, but he just fizzled. So started my lessons that prospects aren't really that good at MLB level unless they exceptional in the minors. Then Crawford made things tough again. <br /><br />It is very much an art, I'll have opinions but if the Giants let go of someone, I assume I'm just missing something, as I don't have any scouting sources. So far, for me, so good, I have not disagreed with the trades the Giants have made, for the most part. <br /><br />And Miller I would have issues getting, not for good reasons, but because we could have had him, I remember the Giants signing him, then we lost him not that nuch later, for some reason. :) <br /><br />Personally I think our bullpen is fine for now, any big trade you will have to pay thru your nose. I would rather supplement later, when teams are more willing to give up, that's how we got Lopez and Ramirez. I also prefer giving opps to our prospects, we have so many in the upper minors, just bring them up, see what we got, like they did with Blackburn, starters can get feet wet by pitching in relief first. Beede could be ready by Sept.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-38481175228379695382016-06-18T01:10:11.365-07:002016-06-18T01:10:11.365-07:00There are no accepted rules on rating a reliever, ...There are no accepted rules on rating a reliever, or providing a way to compare two different ones, that I have seen. I think ERA or FIP is acceptable when looking at a group or over a career.n WPA looks good too, but as you note, there are issues. I like seeing what their inherited runners scoring rate is, obviously the lower the better. I think having high K relievers is a great way to go, less chance for BABIP God to smite thee at the wrong time. And one with very high K/BB ratio, love guys coming up with 4+ K/BB ratio, like Strickland, Law, Okert, Osich. This allows me to be OK with relievers with high walk rates, as the K's make up for the walks by limiting BIP and thus total hits. obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-15116957909432017802016-06-18T01:00:18.013-07:002016-06-18T01:00:18.013-07:00As I noted in my last post on PQS, Game Score is n...As I noted in my last post on PQS, Game Score is not saber designed based on recent rules of thumb for good pitching. James seems to have a brilliant eye for getting at the gist of things, so I would say that GameScore is good at rating how well the pitcher pitched in terms of results, but PQS is better at ignoring the runs results, which are skewed by varying degrees of luck in scoring, and looking strictly at the pitching mechanics results. To me, and I've never saw anyone try to describe them in any way, GameScore is like ERA and PQS is like FIP. So each has value, as long as you know what you are dealing with, as with any metric used as a tool.<br /><br />I like PQS because it can help me see when a pitcher is doing well, but just getting unlucky giving up a lot of runs, which hurts Game Score. That I don't always see from a pitchers line, it gives a nuance. Whereas I can see from a pitchers line that he had a good or bad Game Score, the only question is the degree. That's interesting but I feel it doesn't add much above what I get from looking at his line. <br /><br />Also, a bad game could really screw up your seasonal total in GameScore, like with ERA, but a DIS only affects that one game, you have to screw up multiple starts to really affect your DOM% and DIS%. <br /><br />So I prefer PQS.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-17744586941360593992016-06-18T00:45:20.844-07:002016-06-18T00:45:20.844-07:00I guess you forgot, since I keep the text on top t...I guess you forgot, since I keep the text on top the same, but the link to Baseball HQ is suppose to have the definition of DOM and DIS there.<br /><br />Game Score does not technically have an equivalent, per Bill James creation, but a saber compiled stats empirically and labeled GS above a # to be a Win and below, a loss. Basic same structure as PQS, win=DOM, loss=DIS, tie=what I call MID, because they never defined one.<br /><br />I don't like putting the definition in my post, since it is their creation, but I have put it in comments before, so will do it again.<br /><br />DOM= when PQS is 4 or 5<br />DIS = when PQS is 0 or 1<br /><br />PQS is a simple rating system that is saber metrically aligned. Get automatic 0 if you don't reach at least 5 IP. I leave it out if the pitcher left due to injury and would have otherwise not gotten a 0. Add 1 if 6 IP. Add 1 if hits are less than or equal to IP. Add 1if K>=2 x BB. Add 1 if K>=IP-2. Add 1if less than 2 HR given up. <br /><br />So it rewards IP min of 6. If the pitcher does not give up too many hits, basically 1.000 HIP. If the pitcher does not give up too many walks, i.e. want SP to have K/BB ratio >= 2.0, which was above average during the 2000's. If the pitcher strikes out a good number, their study showed that you want above 6.0 K/9, so this is approximation. Lastly if you don't give up too many HR.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-28800515216548802562016-06-18T00:26:52.366-07:002016-06-18T00:26:52.366-07:00I agree about Bumgarner, but I don't want two ...I agree about Bumgarner, but I don't want two humongous contracts in the rotation like that, he'll be in Greinke territory, like Madison. Get two years of great pitching and move on. Shark hopefully continues to do well for another 3years, plus hope that one of Beede, Bickford, Blackburn, other can take over as third ace of staff. And maybe Cain returns to that status. And I think Timmy is capable, I'm just afraid of how short that could be. obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-84143776441952524782016-06-17T11:45:50.009-07:002016-06-17T11:45:50.009-07:00Thanks. My reservation about WPA is that it depen...Thanks. My reservation about WPA is that it depends heavily on leverage, and that in turn depends on managerial decisions about whom to use and how, and on the performance of whom one follows on the hill. Comparing the 'pen of Team A and that of Team B becomes difficult. That all doesn't mean that WPA may not be the best way to measure bullpen effectiveness, just that it doesn't seem ideal, particularly in isolation.campanarinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-83225233850382328602016-06-17T02:54:08.479-07:002016-06-17T02:54:08.479-07:00I like wpa for evaluating relievers, it weights si...I like wpa for evaluating relievers, it weights situations differently according to how important they are in a game and it also assigns credit or blame realistically when one pitcher replaces another in the middle of an inning.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-70048024568385244972016-06-16T20:38:52.040-07:002016-06-16T20:38:52.040-07:00I have a couple of comments, the first one brief: ...I have a couple of comments, the first one brief: can you add a sentence or two to the intro above, defining what counts as a DOM and what as a DIS? Can these be given equivalents in Game Score?<br /><br />The other matter is more complicated, and is a complement to your way of evaluating starters by DOM/DIS. How does one evaluate bullpens? (I tried to raise this issue on MCC, objecting to some glib comments from Grant, but his followers were more interested in discussing, among other things, how often they defecated. I'm not kidding.) The usual measures we use for starters, such as ERA, FIP, and WAR, don't work well; and different relievers and different 'pens have markedly different leverage situations, which makes comparisons of effectiveness difficult.<br /><br />Do you, as a skilled and creative analyst, have measures you use to weigh the effectiveness of bullpens? Strand rate would need to be included, WHIP with an allowance for intentional walks, perhaps; also Runs Allowed. I'm sure that if one wants to consider how badly the Giants need to beef up their bullpen--top prospects for 31-year-old Andrew Miller?--one needs to have a clear sense of how the 'pen is doing; but are there clear, statistical means for doing that?<br /><br />campanarinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-86675514298830943152016-06-16T17:37:44.387-07:002016-06-16T17:37:44.387-07:00I would hope the Giants open up contract discussio...I would hope the Giants open up contract discussions with Bumgarner and Cueto before it gets critical. I was very big on pursuing Cueto whom I think is one of the best pitchers in MLB. And, of course, Bumgarner is just amazing.<br /><br />Also if Lincecum can show he can pitch in the majors, I'd be happy if they bring him back. MosesZDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12702323080585738748noreply@blogger.com