tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post6964875404185501744..comments2024-02-23T20:49:09.057-08:00Comments on obsessivegiantscompulsive: Your 2015 Giants: Trade for Mike Leakeobsessivegiantscompulsivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-71697802310617891202015-08-02T02:50:15.855-07:002015-08-02T02:50:15.855-07:00Another thing I should have mentioned is that the ...Another thing I should have mentioned is that the Giants needed to make a trade for somebody. If you look at my Team Performance box on the side, the Giants are 48-55 so far in terms of the pitching achieving allowing 3 runs or less in a game. <br /><br />That's not acceptable for a team that wins generally by pitching. The team the past couple of seasons have been winning by offense, as odd as that might seem to some people, but as I've noted the past couple of seasons, their offense is actually pretty good when you got everyone healthy and producing to career norms. <br /><br />Adding in Duffy and Panik at their great production so far helps the offense be even better, then you have Crawford taking his performance up a notch as well, and once they get Aoki going and back leading off, I think the Giants offense could take another notch up, and they have been good so far.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-23765451503546411272015-08-02T01:36:40.036-07:002015-08-02T01:36:40.036-07:00Oh, and he might just become the next Maddux, in r...Oh, and he might just become the next Maddux, in reference to Mapson's scouting report. According to one of the reports I read, he has pushed his velocity higher as he is approaching his prime physical condition. Add that to training he could receive with the Giants, while learning how forgiving RF can be for him against LHH, I would put nothing against him trying to reach that ideal. And maybe Huddy can get Maddux to talk with Leake too, maybe they are buddies?obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-48121647654204167832015-08-02T01:33:37.411-07:002015-08-02T01:33:37.411-07:00Thanks for the comment. Good points! And I agree...Thanks for the comment. Good points! And I agree.<br /><br />Not that he isn't good now, but I particularly agree with your last statement that he would assiduously and rapidly absorb the teachings of their variety of available teachers, including Hudson, Righetti, Gardner, Tidrow, Cain, and Posey. obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-22429348540146405122015-08-02T01:28:20.910-07:002015-08-02T01:28:20.910-07:00Really nice analysis of Leake and his pitching ten...Really nice analysis of Leake and his pitching tendencies: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/7/31/9082359/giants-reds-trade-mike-leake-mlb-trade-deadlineobsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-62451660997087229582015-07-31T20:41:17.884-07:002015-07-31T20:41:17.884-07:00Your comments on Leake's savvy and his learnin...Your comments on Leake's savvy and his learning from Hudson, ogc, may be particularly apposite to Leake. That's because he never had a minor-league stage of development, but moved directly from college to MLB. He has worked with only one set of coaches at a professional level, I would guess, without the experience of ripening under diverse guidance that the Giants' organization provides, its pitcher- whispering. He should have a good bit to learn from his new organization's experts, and he seems like the kind of guy who would be very susceptible to rapid, assiduous learning.campanarinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-54151298559205042382015-07-31T15:20:06.011-07:002015-07-31T15:20:06.011-07:00Oh, should have mentioned, Hudson DLed to open up ...Oh, should have mentioned, Hudson DLed to open up space for Leake, Heston moves up to pitch Sat against Hamels (two no-hitters this season), and Leake debuts on Sunday.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-47503108439338657352015-07-31T15:16:44.044-07:002015-07-31T15:16:44.044-07:00Nice post by Pavlovic on Leake: http://www.csnbay...Nice post by Pavlovic on Leake: http://www.csnbayarea.com/giants/leake-stunned-trade-giants-eager-be-back-race<br /><br />Sounds really good. Learned from Hudson tape, can now ask the original! Picked 13 because it's his father's favorite number. Now he can arrange to have his father meet Willie Mays, whom his father liked so much that Leake grew up a Giants fan. Interview got me excited about getting Leake, that he stepped up when it was known that he was auditioning for a playoff team. <br /><br />Time for Giants to turbo-charge ahead (not that they haven't, so OK, continue to fly ahead).obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-59214028466898021222015-07-31T12:42:55.173-07:002015-07-31T12:42:55.173-07:00Here is a nice analysis of Leake by a Blue Jays fa...Here is a nice analysis of Leake by a Blue Jays fan (h/t to MCC) and how he approaches pitching: http://www.bluejaysplus.com/dealing-out-aces-digging-deep-on-mike-leake/<br /><br />He's savvy enough to alter how he pitches between home and on the road! Also, his velocity has been going up over his career, not down. He probably could strike out more batters, given his better velocity, but focuses more on limiting pitches per batter so that he can go deeper in games, apparently. <br /><br />I liked getting him before but like him even more after reading this.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-61377311191101036032015-07-31T09:39:38.200-07:002015-07-31T09:39:38.200-07:00Thanks campanari, for your comment. Very astute, ...Thanks campanari, for your comment. Very astute, as usual, Affeldt has not been himself, so yeah, he could be a DL candidate to open up a spot for Hudson to be a reliever. But the Giants, or that is, Bochy, seems to need at least two lefties in the bullpen for him to do his magic, so while that can be done for now just to get things moving, Osich will need to be brought up at some point soon for Bochy to have his two lefty bullpen (and remember, he actually liked having three a few years back). So DLing Affeldt will buy time but not much as they will need to do something to bring Osich back up.<br /><br />Yes, they could DFA Petit. But I would think he has some value to a contender somewhere, so hence why I suggested trading him above. But perhaps I overvalue him, his K/9 is very depressed, now that I look at it, so, seeing that, I have to agree with you, DFAing Petit seems the most likely option right now if no other moves are made.<br /><br />Now Evans was on KNBR this morning and when asked about what 25-man move might happen, played coy and noted that while no deal is likely to be done today by the Giants, he noted that should they make any moves, then they will deal with the 25-man consequences. I read that to mean that the Giants are working on trading someone off the 25-man in order to open a spot for Hudson in the bullpen. <br /><br />And that's why I noted Vogelsong above and before as a trade candidate, as he was a valuable pitcher for us while in the rotation, and a good guy overall, and one would think that there is one cheap playoff contender out there who would flip a low level prospect whom the Giants are interested in, in order to add Vogelsong to their rotation and improve their rotation. <br /><br />Most people (I don't consider you most people :^) don't realize that every team struggles with their 5th starter, even the Giants, with their stability and the great pitching from 2009-2012, usually had one spot in their rotation where nobody could take and hold the spot, and so the team rotates a number of starters in there to find a good pitcher. <br /><br />Vogelsong could help stabilize another team's rotation by providing good starts where he keeps his team in the game. People undervalue that, but from my study of PQS and DOM/MID/DIS, even MID starts are valuable because the team is not out of the game as they would be in DIS starts. And Vogie, actually, this season, has been either DOM or DIS, few MID, but he has been DOM a lot more than DIS, and that is valuable to a contender who is on the edge, improving their question mark rotation slot into a a pitcher like Vogelsong. Could be the difference between contender and pretender. <br /><br />Or maybe a team is hurting. Like the Yankees, didn't they lose a starter recently? Lots of ways the Giants can play it, I think.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-88616400572685623412015-07-31T09:17:57.419-07:002015-07-31T09:17:57.419-07:00Hey El, long time no see, thanks for the comment! ...Hey El, long time no see, thanks for the comment! And for the BP snippet!<br /><br />Timmy is on the 40-man, so he is not the guy to go to make space on the 25-man. Though, brilliant minds and all that, I was wondering at first, when first writing, before I counted and realized that we had 40-man roster spots open, if the Giants might just push him out to the 60-day DL, which would end his season probably, but allow them to place Leake on the 40. But then I counted and it wasn't needed.<br /><br />Never can say goodbye, no no no no...<br /><br />I don't know, while the writing appears to be on the wall, screaming really, with the bullpen crunch and all that (clearly, his SP days are over), there is something in my gut that says that the Giants will keep Lincecum around. Part of that is that I think he still wants to be in the majors, part of that is that I think nobody will want him except maybe the Giants. Minor league contract perhaps?<br /><br />I mean, the guy seems to have no ego, but he does love the game. And as good as Petit was last two seasons, he's been pretty meh this season, so maybe Tim and Petit end up battling for the long relief spot in the rotation. And Tim might win it, he's been good in short spurts, and maybe he needed two years to get back the mechanics his father taught him (I mean, his dad in his 50's was throwing high 80's heat, so why can't Timmy with enough rest and continued conditioning?). And Timmy has stuff that don't go away, even with his diminished velocity, he was still striking out people, more than his velocity would suggest. <br /><br />A guy can dream, no?<br /><br />Thanks again.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-14880749845290589912015-07-31T09:06:48.333-07:002015-07-31T09:06:48.333-07:00Thanks for your comment.
Yeah, that sounds about ...Thanks for your comment.<br /><br />Yeah, that sounds about right with the 3 of 10. El Lefty Malo noted long ago someone else's comment that in any system at any time, on average, you got two future starters and two valuable bench/relief players, so that fits in with what you say as well, including the one outlier who pops up for some teams (for many years, it wasn't the Giants though).<br /><br />I view prospects more like financial options, where while there is little value now, based on expected appreciation, you expect your option to be in the money. Mella was one such option, and he was considered a top option based on rankings, and thus a high price to pay for a rental.<br /><br />But you and I are really not that far apart. Long ago I got the scorn of a lot of Giants fans to saying that the Giants punting of the draft pick for Michael Tucker is a rational and OK move because the vast majority of 29th picks never become a good player, roughly 10% (based on my draft study, a link to which is on the side somewhere, look for crapshoot). Which is the same notion as you are stating regarding Mella: any particular random prospect is not very likely to amount to anything. <br /><br />So I agree, there is a lot of ways that Mella can go sideways. I noted above both that he's only in Advanced A and that some prospect followers don't even think he's going to be a starter. And while he has potential for three plus pitches, he's not there yet, and may never get there. I would also add that Sabean and gang has been pretty good during his reign in not trading away a good pitcher (Wheeler has been an average pitcher so far, and now injured, and Liriano, while a good pitcher when healthy, hasn't always been healthy, for the most part). <br /><br />I also don't put much faith in rankings, so again, alike. Particularly Giants rankings, as the Giants go their own way and the rest of baseball does not seem to like or appreciate that. Almost every draft year, there will be at least one pick that has the rest of baseball scratching their head and wondering what the heck are the Giants doing. Sanchez, Sandoval, Romo, Belt, Crawford, Panik, Duffy, Heston all were/are good major leaguers, providing good production, and yet were not thought of much by the prospect followers at some point while under Giants control. Belt everybody jumped on once he started hitting the snot out of the ball, but it was the Giants who drafted him in the 5th round who saw something in an underpowered firstbaseman who used to be a pitcher. Everyone was scratching their heads when he was selected, nobody remembers that they didn't think much of him when the Giants drafted him, even Law, who has made it his business to bad mouth the Giants over their handling of Belt, he didn't talk about the Giants steal when they drafted Belt.<br /><br />So, yeah, you and I are very alike.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-24186638186899610572015-07-31T08:40:54.405-07:002015-07-31T08:40:54.405-07:00I believe that Affeldt has appeared twice since he...I believe that Affeldt has appeared twice since he came off the DL, and that he was pulled both times because he was so startlingly ineffective. He may well need August back on the DL before rosters expand in September. For the Giants to carry fourteen pitchers is not tenable, so the addition of a pitcher means the departure of a pitcher. This is the more so in that Leake typically goes deep into games, so that the bullpen will get more rest. DFA Petit, with the supposition that his role as long man now can be filled by both Vogelsong and Hudson?campanarinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-71435161657483159712015-07-31T07:18:24.823-07:002015-07-31T07:18:24.823-07:00From BP:
Leake is an excellent fit for the Giants...From BP:<br /><br />Leake is an excellent fit for the Giants’ pitching philosophy in that he can use and command all five pitches, and can get by when one or two of them aren’t working. <br /><br />• Leake - sinker, cutter, curve, change, slider,<br />• Heston - sinker, four-seamer, curve, change, slider <br />• Hudson - sinker, four-seamer, curve, change, cutter <br />• Peavy - sinker, four-seamer, curve, change, cutter<br /> <br /><b>This isn’t by accident.</b> The Giants and Righetti prefer pitchers who are comfortable mixing their pitches. A <i>lot</i>.<br /> <br />Leake is a good, durable, athlete who approaches hitters the way the Giants want their pitchers to.<br /> ----------<br /><br />btw...hate to say it, but if a player can be dropped off the 25 while on the DL, Timmy's the most likely candidate. Time to say goodbye....Elnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-21813616767120463702015-07-31T04:38:11.600-07:002015-07-31T04:38:11.600-07:00At Dr B's I pointed out that only 3 in 10 &quo...At Dr B's I pointed out that only 3 in 10 "Top-10" prospects make it to the show. So I chose MLB's 2011 prospect list because it was the oldest.<br /><br />Three in ten made it to any significant time so far: Adrihanza, Sanchez, Gillespie. The other seven, including Gary Brown (#1 in 2011 & 2012) have either failed, are stuck in the minors, or are completely out the farm club system.<br /><br />If you go to 2012 -- Panik is an All Star. The rest are perhaps even worse off than 2011's crew. 2013 -- Crick is #1, Kickham #3. Not much success there. Panik the future All-Star is still in the Top-10. 2014 -- Nobody in the Top-10 has made to the show with Duffy at #17 and Strickland at #13 are the cream of that Top-20 ranking. <br /><br />So, yeah, he was #1. And my reaction is 'so?' I don't put a lot of faith in prospect rankings, especially for a guy who hasn't even made to AA, because I know most of them are going to flat-out fail... MosesZDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12702323080585738748noreply@blogger.com