tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post4539119310473126732..comments2024-02-23T20:49:09.057-08:00Comments on obsessivegiantscompulsive: And the Beat Goes On: Giants Sign Posey, Kieschnick, Crawfordobsessivegiantscompulsivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-47303034359672921732008-08-14T23:58:00.000-07:002008-08-14T23:58:00.000-07:00Thanks allfrank. I did not intend to say that you...Thanks allfrank. I did not intend to say that you were quibbling over a $mil, I was only trying to show how I would justify going with $7.5M as the bonus, whether from Posey's agent viewpoint or the Giants viewpoint.<BR/><BR/>Yes, I figured you would be glad he was on board and wanting to get the rebuild up and running. Again, I was just trying to run through the logic of how the Giants should be approaching this.<BR/><BR/>Lastly, I wasn't trying to refer to next year's draft having lower caliber; I haven't heard much about next year's class yet. Reading over my comments, I don't see it, so you will have to point it out to me, and I'll let you know what I was thinking at that point.<BR/><BR/>I wasn't trying to say that we should get him now because next year we might get a lesser talent for the same price. Given this statement, I would not use that as a reason to pay out more this year, you just don't know how next year's draft is going to turn out, you have some rough estimates, but as I tried to point out with my references to where BA ranked the four draftees, Posey raised his status greatly (much like how Longoria did) while Kieschnick and Crawford plummeted, so you never know how things will turn out next year, you can only know what is this year.<BR/><BR/>Ultimately, as I noted throughout, it is not in the best economic interest of any of our draft picks to not sign for slot or above, they should take the money and work to get to the majors that much faster if you believe you can do better next year.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-16344611028813795002008-08-14T23:45:00.000-07:002008-08-14T23:45:00.000-07:00Thanks wayne2490, that makes a lot of sense, that ...Thanks wayne2490, that makes a lot of sense, that would explain why Sabean said right off that the Giants would be amenable to a major league contract if that is so desired.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-34268230475555367242008-08-14T23:25:00.000-07:002008-08-14T23:25:00.000-07:00I think Posey's bonus can be spread out because he...I think Posey's bonus can be spread out because he signed a major league contract.wayne2490https://www.blogger.com/profile/06232605647875698538noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-6618727522574095492008-08-14T18:46:00.000-07:002008-08-14T18:46:00.000-07:00Interesting comments, thanks, Martin, particularly...Interesting comments, thanks, Martin, particularly about the present value. yes, present value is the real value. And, honestly, for Posey, I wouldn't quibble over a $mil. I just thought he would come in at about $6 mil. All things considered, I am glad he is on board. I do think it is important to get the rebuild up and running. And of course, it is possible we will pay more next year for a player not quite the same caliber (I understand the class is a little thinner - butg we might be picking higher. ie, I understand only the top 3 picks are true blue chippers, and if we are picking 4 or 5, we're going to be paying for a number, not a player.allfrankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03603053163603458876noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-53611970020099820662008-08-14T18:34:00.000-07:002008-08-14T18:34:00.000-07:00Oh, forgot to mention that while Lincecum was cons...Oh, forgot to mention that while Lincecum was considered for #1, he fell all the way to #10. That makes it harder to argue that you were worth what a #1 got, as there was a lot of debate on what his actual worth was, in the market. That Porcello got a lot more probably didn't feel good to him, but hard to compare a HS to a junior in college, lots of factors that make it harder for his side to say it is a comparable situation. Plus, Porcello didn't sign until very near the end, making it harder to bring up in negotiations, things should be winding down by then.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-18136733757607542512008-08-14T18:29:00.000-07:002008-08-14T18:29:00.000-07:00I have no problem criticizing when actual insider ...I have no problem criticizing when actual insider details are not available - else there would be no need to express our opinions on a situation. I think if we know enough of a situation and can work out the logic, that it is valid to make some sort of commentary.<BR/><BR/>Here is how I viewed it, you can have at it if you disagree.<BR/><BR/>The reason I think that Weiters and Posey are comparable is because their bonuses have to make sense in the situation they were in. I won't justify Weiters, as I think he was above in my mind, but once he signs, that becomes a market pricing point that draftees will use going forward, for better or worse.<BR/><BR/>So once that becomes a pricing point - and in a broad sense, they are very comparable, top 5 pick material, both good offensively as well defensively, both good enough to be considered for #1 pick, both also happen to be #5 picks - that became a starting point for Posey's negotiation team, because they were very comparable.<BR/><BR/>This year, the "slots" were increased 20%, hence my reference to that, but which I probably should have explained. So if I were negotiating for Posey, I would tack on 20% to Weiter's $6M and start with $7.2M as my goal in negotiating.<BR/><BR/>However, in any negotiation, you don't start from your ideal, you start out high, which is probably what that $12M figure was, a starting point, which eventually got "whittled" down to the reported $7.5M.<BR/><BR/>From the Giants side, obviously you want to start somewhere around the slot figure, which should be $2.70M, based on last year's slot plus the signings right behind Posey, though Skipworth and G-Beck's are out of whack relative to each other since Skipworth signed for under slot it appears.<BR/><BR/>Now, they probably were willing to go up to a certain figure, which obviously would be at least $7.5M, but you have to start low and make the other side justify raising it.<BR/><BR/>Then it is a matter of each side making their points and going back and worth as neither side knows the upper and lower bounds of what each side is willing to live with or can't live without.<BR/><BR/>And that's my layman's understanding of negotiations, I'm sure there are nuances I'm missing but I think that captures it on a very rough and high level.<BR/><BR/>And sometimes, you just want to do it but then you work backwards and justify it by finding reasons why it is reasonable.<BR/><BR/>That's what I tried to do as well, we will never know how the Giants or Posey's team approached it. <BR/><BR/>Beckham getting $6.15M set a price point for the #1 pick. It was widely acknowledged that it was either Posey or Beckham. So you can make the point that Posey should make at least that much, though typically High Schoolers have more leverage than college juniors, though the degree is debatable since the junior can return to school.<BR/><BR/>We also don't know how Posey's bonus is spread out. Beckham's $6.15M is spread out and has a present value slightly below $5M from what I remember from somewhere, in the high $4M. It could be that Posey's bonus is more backloaded than Beckham's bringing their present value to be nearly equal or even less, for all we know. <BR/><BR/>Not sure why Posey's bonus is spread out, I forgot to mention that surprised me, I thought that was only allowed for legit two sports stars. But it was allowed according to Baggarly's report.<BR/><BR/>In any case, it is the total figure that gets released, so maybe the present value is below Beckham's and maybe even Weiters's, but because it is backloaded, it looks like Posey got what Weiters got and more, saving face for his agents, but leaving the Giants happy that the present value is lower than whichever benchmark they are happy with.<BR/><BR/>Now, this is all conjecture on my part, but are legit ways of valuing Posey relative to the market.<BR/><BR/>And that's why I'm OK with it, it is in the ballpark of how people in the real world might do the valuation and not grossly higher. Sure, I would rather sign him at $2.7M, but the thing is the Giants need him more than he needs them, as much as he might want to start his career, in any case. That means the Giants will have to give more in the negotiations and there are valid reasons why he could get more, and at the end of the day, they had to sign him or risk setting back the rebuilding greatly.<BR/><BR/>I don't think this bothers or should bother Lincecum. I don't think that he will compare, though he probably wouldn't have minded getting the money. If it was that important to him to get that much money, he would have not signed with the Giants and went back for his senior year and prove he deserved that high of an amount.<BR/><BR/>That's also why they are "gambling" by going year to year with his contract instead of signing a cheap but security-laden contract with the Giants, I believe. If he can pitch this well every year - and it appears he can as long as he is healthy - he is going to break records in arbitration. That is the big prize, the signing bonus is history, the bigger prize is right before him in his grasp and it is in arbitration.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-39841702712614316612008-08-14T16:47:00.000-07:002008-08-14T16:47:00.000-07:00Martin, I absolutely hate it when posters, who kno...Martin, I absolutely hate it when posters, who know nothing about the actual insider details of a situation, criticize any particular move. So, I am not doing that. I will say I am surprised at the $7.5 mil for Posey. One of my worries is that he gets almost 4 times what Lincecum got - and I would worry about that dynamic in the future. Next, and I don't pretend to know the leverage he had, I just don't understand how/why he is worth so much more than Weiters - or anyone else drafted this year. I very much DO understand the Giants wanting him and wanting him now and not waiting until next year to draft someone else. But my take is that given what Weiters and all the other top 7 guys got this year and last, that $6 mil was waaaaaay above slot - and that going back into the draft to get maybe another $2 mil, max, would be really foolsih - as the goal should be to get to the bigs soon and start the clock so you are past arbitration and able to negotiate big FA money before you are apporaching end of career age numbers.allfrankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03603053163603458876noreply@blogger.com