tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post445722851202297131..comments2024-02-23T20:49:09.057-08:00Comments on obsessivegiantscompulsive: Your 2011 Giants Offense: Together, They Are Giantsobsessivegiantscompulsivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-73610281919664506962011-03-06T14:31:28.260-08:002011-03-06T14:31:28.260-08:00thank you for your extensive reply, OGC.
I think ...thank you for your extensive reply, OGC.<br /><br />I think my actual point (which I didn't quite express correctly) is that the Giants are forced with a personnel decision re: Rowand, Ishi, and Nate that potentially has quite an impact on the offense and the defense. You let the latter two go, and Rowand hits as expected, then mid-season you may have one hitting badly only, or none of the three. As you say, the outfield situation is tenuous, so it is a conundrum that could affect the season. The team might really need Nate and Ishi for both offense and defense.<br /><br />Then again, I also believe long-run Rowand is worth far more in July than now, and, as seems to be the theme of your post, these are all good problems to have. Having too many good/valuable in trade players is not awful. I'm alright with having 6 good hitting first baseman. I just hope Sabean gets value in return as opposed to just letting players go.marcnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-41563300399620283092011-03-06T07:01:17.321-08:002011-03-06T07:01:17.321-08:00Well, Loney just had an MRI of his knee, results p...Well, Loney just had an MRI of his knee, results pending, but it sounds like it's most likely a minor problem.DrBGiantsfanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10699322384438591979noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-32358630192069065282011-03-05T23:53:50.903-08:002011-03-05T23:53:50.903-08:00Oh, and now the Phillies Ben Francisco would have ...Oh, and now the Phillies Ben Francisco would have to perform lousily or get injured for them to really need Aaron Rowand.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-7254140236843958072011-03-05T23:53:10.649-08:002011-03-05T23:53:10.649-08:00I know, weird, huh DrB!
Let's see, who else c...I know, weird, huh DrB!<br /><br />Let's see, who else can I jinx? D-gers rotation is just as prone to injury as the Giants, they have young guys as well as older guys. Right now Ethier is their best hitter, Kemp and Loney has disappointed the past two seasons, so if Ethier has any problems, their offense will make the 2009 Giants offense look like a great offense.<br /><br />Carlos Quentin has been having physical problems and poor seasons and Juan Pierre is prime for some troubles given how his only value is his ability to not strikeout and thus get a nice batting average plus his ability to steal a lot of bases, and he's not getting any younger, speed guys start having leg problems in their 30's, don't they?<br /><br />:^Dobsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-21543505323625525572011-03-05T20:02:24.347-08:002011-03-05T20:02:24.347-08:00Domonic Brown had a fractured bone in his hand!Domonic Brown had a fractured bone in his hand!DrBGiantsfanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10699322384438591979noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-36317306586663241102011-03-05T19:11:47.029-08:002011-03-05T19:11:47.029-08:00Thank you Anon for pointing out Rowand. Yeah, pro...Thank you Anon for pointing out Rowand. Yeah, probably should have given him more thought, but as you can see, I was concerned more about other things in my post.<br /><br />Still, I am with you, I would rather have either than Rowand, but it is not just the contract, the thing is that we haven't seen Torres through a full season as a starter yet. He's also at an age that most people start declining and he's not even played a full season as a starter yet. Found money, but lousy half life remaining. <br /><br />So the Giants will be holding onto him at least to mid-season, just in case they need him in CF.<br /><br />Now, Ross could play there, but I was looking at his defensive numbers and, for example, in Bill James Handbook, in about same innings, he was -1 runs saved in CF while Rowand was +3, almost half a win better. Now, if Rowand is crappy again, Ross's offense probably worth more than that, but if Ross is Marlin's crappy, then he might not be. We have a lot of bad that can happen in the outfield.<br /><br />If I had to bet, both Ishi and Nate make the opening day but Ishi will be gone when they need another bullpen guy (they will probably also need a 40-man spot for Suppan or Kroon or whoever else they bring up, most probably). Nate depends on when Belt comes up.<br /><br />If in May like Posey, I have to think Nate is gone, too soon for anyone to take Rowand off our hands.<br /><br />However, if they leave Belt in AAA until after ASG, there is the chance that another team might take Rowand off our hands and not require us to hand over the whole contract amount too. We might even get an OK prospect in exchange if, say, we pay all of 2011 and the other team splits 2012 with us. I think we did that with Molina and Texas.<br /><br />I would really rather have Nate because I think he still has a good chance of being an above average value player in RF for us as low cost, relatively, starter there, and we will need that after 2011, with big raises probably due Lincecum, Sanchez, Cain, and maybe Wilson, plus that would be Sandoval's first arb year as well, so big raise there too.<br /><br />Ideally, we keep Nate to start RF in 2012, Torres can stay relatively good in CF for 2012-3 until Brown ready to take over, Burrell/Huff shares LF, that is, whoever is still hitting well in 2011-2, and Neal or Peguero is ready to start in LF by 2013. <br /><br />Kieschnick is a possibility too, Parker as well, RafRod a dark horse candidate, he could suddenly figure it out (or just physically mature or both) and rise fast, kind of like Panda once he got it.<br /><br />But I guess if Rowand isn't doing well at all again by mid-season, the whole Zito brouhaha about not coming into spring training in shape and serious and all that could come to roost in Rowand's cage and he's the one jettisoned instead of Nate, I think at that point they would give Nate the benefit of the doubt.<br /><br />But it's hard to capture all that in a post devoted to other thematic points. I probably should post this separately at some point later in spring or even in the season.<br /><br />I guess one reason I didn't tackle is that it all depends on how Rowand and Nate do in spring, then regular season, and hard to really say anything definitive until all that happens.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-31747648595400442652011-03-05T13:12:03.117-08:002011-03-05T13:12:03.117-08:00Thank you OGC -
I think an overriding theme acro...Thank you OGC - <br /><br />I think an overriding theme across the board is a bit of a pessimistic outlook. Ergo, 90 wins feels like the absolute worst-case scenario (Lincecum or Cain's arm falling off excepted).<br /><br />One thing I don't quite get though that you let go by a little is Rowand. His contract is a sunk cost too (as with Zito), and I'd take Ishi or Nate in a second over Rowand to fill a roster spot. I guess it is a matter of "now" vs "mid-season" in terms of return, but that's relative. Either way, it's a case of you got what you got, and I'm not sure that Rowand taking up space is worth even half his contract.<br /><br />Then again... I keep having this bad dream where he gets released and has a 1.000 OPS for the Dodgers for free. Could happen.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-12277551667261422752011-03-05T10:13:51.122-08:002011-03-05T10:13:51.122-08:00Well, not that I'm hoping for someone to do ba...Well, not that I'm hoping for someone to do bad, but rather that is the only way in hell the Giants can trade off Rowand.<br /><br />Chicago White Sox is probably another interested team/manager, but I don't know their OF situation as well as I do the Phillies.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-60616280010110955172011-03-05T10:12:33.761-08:002011-03-05T10:12:33.761-08:00I also forgot to mention Nate Schiertholtz, I'...I also forgot to mention Nate Schiertholtz, I'm hoping the Giants can somehow keep him around, though right now it is looking less and less a likelihood unless Rowand is somehow magically traded for someone else's albatross.<br /><br />Given the Phillies love for him, I'm hoping Domonic Brown isn't all dat and they have no good replacement in the OF, so they have to trade for an OF, like Rowand, with only 1.5 years left on contract mid-season. At this point, I would take a split of the contract plus a list of prospects from which the Giants can chose 1 or 2 players from. Perhaps an old prospect they have given up on, not sure who that might be.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-5205109683682224852011-03-05T00:23:35.298-08:002011-03-05T00:23:35.298-08:00I agree DrB, we have a number of young OF like Nea...I agree DrB, we have a number of young OF like Neal, Peguero, Brown, Parker, Kieschnick, who could be ready in a year or two. We milk Burrell and Torres as long as we can, we need that money for our young pitching and hitters, not Ross.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-41412692982917112992011-03-04T16:35:17.618-08:002011-03-04T16:35:17.618-08:00OGC,
I'm happy we have Ross for 2011, but he ...OGC,<br /><br />I'm happy we have Ross for 2011, but he wants a long term contract with the Giants. As charming as that is, I hope Sabes is smart enough not to go for it. It would be Randy Winn all over again, maybe not as good. The Giants have a whole raft of OF prospects coming along and they don't need an aging, average OF blocking the way in future years.DrBGiantsfanhttp://www.whenthegiantscometotown.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-68561499337258542462011-03-04T13:57:32.646-08:002011-03-04T13:57:32.646-08:00Thanks, did not realize where Hawpe moved on to. ...Thanks, did not realize where Hawpe moved on to. And Thanks DrB. Thanks and totally agree, Billiam.<br /><br />Jewy, thanks for pointing that out, as you can see with the "," I forgot to finish my thought, much appreciated.<br /><br />What I meant to finish there is that adding Belt does not necessarily push out Burrell. <br /><br />It could push Huff to RF and force out Ross, since Burrell is so much a better hitter than Ross, though obviously not his equal defensively. Depends on how the Giants want to roll on that, perhaps go with offense/Burrell against better pitchers and defense/Ross against worse pitchers, just for the offense.<br /><br />Plus, most projections have Ross declining than returning to his previous level of the two prior years, and there are sabermetric reasons for that - high strikeout rate, below average walk rate, declining SLG vs. RHP, his power took a real hit last season, post-season performance notwithstanding.<br /><br />As a Giants fan, we got to hope that his decline of previous years were due to being with Marlins' sorry ownership situation, though of course that means he's not the gamer everybody would want him to be.<br /><br />But based on his splits, he's below average against RHP, so he's prime for a platoon situation unless he can return to 2008-2009's level, and even that is not that good, just good for where he'll be in the lineup, near bottom.<br /><br />Key to improvement is him being able to start out hot, he's had poor Aprils in the past before igniting in May, then cooling off in July and August.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-58850076561735536372011-03-04T13:16:08.206-08:002011-03-04T13:16:08.206-08:00OGC, you wrote:
And remember, these projections i...OGC, you wrote:<br /><br />And remember, these projections include the projected drops for the older players, so if the players do not drop in performance as the projections assumes older players will, those will be improvements as well. Plus, if Belt crushes AAA, that could even force Cody Ross out of the starting lineup, as someone (between Huff and Belt) would move into LF, pushing out Burrell, <br /><br />I'm not following -- how would Belt mashing push out BOTH Burrell and Ross?Jewy McBaggerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11165730211679578854noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-39227282517037988242011-03-04T06:07:28.421-08:002011-03-04T06:07:28.421-08:00Great analysis, OGC. Nothing to add here.Great analysis, OGC. Nothing to add here.DrBGiantsfanhttp://www.whenthegiantscometotown.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-18603160260557465242011-03-04T05:19:53.577-08:002011-03-04T05:19:53.577-08:00Very good stuff. Hawpe is now on the Padres.Very good stuff. Hawpe is now on the Padres.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-82985858053229060882011-03-03T23:20:05.041-08:002011-03-03T23:20:05.041-08:00Excellent analysis, great read. Even if some of t...Excellent analysis, great read. Even if some of the "suspect" 2010 performers like Huff and Burrell regress, I'd be inclined to say that an improvement from Pablo, and full seasons from Posey and Ross (as opposed to their predecessors) should outweigh those prospects.BilliamFloydnoreply@blogger.com