tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post4147542236065378570..comments2024-02-23T20:49:09.057-08:00Comments on obsessivegiantscompulsive: Your 2011 Giants: Neukomium Blast Aftermathobsessivegiantscompulsivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-51728929579973326672011-09-19T23:37:32.542-07:002011-09-19T23:37:32.542-07:00I hope with the amounts of money the team is makin...I hope with the amounts of money the team is making that the home grown talent is retained. Its my biggest fear that they let Cain go and resign Wilson (more fake beards for the kids!) Wilson is the one smart GMs let go.<br /><br />Don't have a problem with Beltran's comments. You need someone to get on base and disrupt the pitcher. Torres was that guy in 2010. Reyes was that guy with the Mets, although the past 3 years are pretty checkered. Beltran is pretty detached, some people are bothered by that. Meanwhile, he has just been straight raking. THAT'S a professional hitter Bochy, not Orlando Cabrera.<br /><br />I'm not saying Reyes is without risk, but if he signs somewhere for a reasonable deal and the Gints claim poverty - like Vlad and the Angels - that will be a big blow. He fills leadoff, speed and short. Its the perfect fit, except for the money and years. If that risk can be brought to a reasonable level, its the one move to do. The baller move is to bring in Beltran and Reyes. So Beltran is pretty much right. Good for Sabean.<br /><br />I didn't realize the years left on Span in Minny - he's got 3 years for 14MM total and then a team option. Maybe not such a hot idea.<br />His first two years he had great OBP - close to 400, that has fallen off the past 2. <br /><br />always been a Coco Crisp fan, but he's getting old and expensive. Career obp of 333 doesn't really scream leadoff to me. His arm is below average but he has good range. The health thing scares me and his power has gone from occasional to non existent. I think he'll get a multiyear deal in this market at above Cody Ross arb money, and that would be a mistake for the Giants.<br /><br />Dirty will be interesting. I've read some places he is a Boras client, just switched, but haven't been able to confirm. Its really hard to trade that arm, even with his 10 cent head. When he is right, he is amazing. Most frustrating Giant by a long shot. I think a lot of teams will be trying to low ball Sabean this offseason for him. If a couple nice pieces could be had, great. I think that ship has sailed though. He is going to cost about 6.5MM, so you have to juggle him versus the bullpen, or the OF.<br /><br />Thats what makes it fun though - you don't have unlimited resources like in roto. This is the complete opposite of last season. Oh, and its not quite over yet either, this season of ours...Shankbonenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-35875380150660642832011-09-19T16:44:38.933-07:002011-09-19T16:44:38.933-07:00I'm pretty sure Beltran's point was that t...I'm pretty sure Beltran's point was that the Giant's needs on offense are not necessarily middle-of-the-oreder power hitters, but rather guys that can consistently get on base, so that he and others in the middle of the lineup have RBI opportunities. Adding Reyes would fit that bill. Yes, there are serious concerns about his durability, but if you're looking for a OBP guy who can be a game changer, this is the guy. Add in the fact that he plays plus defense at SS, a real need for the Giants, it would be a no-brainer.............absent the huge contract & injury concerns. Given his age, I think it's a risk worth taking.<br /><br />Re Neukom: the word is that the disagreement with the investors revolves around what he should be compensated for his services, no communication and all that other non-speak that we've all heard.Boofnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-37234844200477165442011-09-19T12:11:25.897-07:002011-09-19T12:11:25.897-07:00All in all, I think the 2012 Giants are very close...All in all, I think the 2012 Giants are very close to fielding a league average offense, which is all we need to achieve 90-95 wins.<br /><br />More if Posey hits as well as 2010, same for Huff, or if Belt acclimates to majors and be more comfortable, and hit like we think he can hit.<br /><br />Plus, I've been very impressed with Crawford's changes this season, he could also surprise, though not like the above.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-49738850753356800962011-09-19T12:07:50.410-07:002011-09-19T12:07:50.410-07:00Oh, Anon, nothing to be sorry about, a mistake is ...Oh, Anon, nothing to be sorry about, a mistake is a mistake, thanks again for pointing it out.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-71138172375810499782011-09-19T12:07:16.063-07:002011-09-19T12:07:16.063-07:00I think Beltran is still missing the point. Don&#...I think Beltran is still missing the point. Don't need a great offense to win with our pitching. Our team would be a 92 win caliber team with Cub's offense (4.08 RS).<br /><br />They had a below average C and 2B, much above average 3B, above average 1B, and slightly above average rest of the team. They cobbled together a decent leadoff solution by platooning, Starlin and Fukdome, for the most part. Neither really stole that much (20 SB).<br /><br />We could probably do that platooning, say, Belt vs. RHP leadoff (good baserunning instincts, good OBP if hitting like he can, sees a lot of pitches) and find a RHB to leadoff against LHP. Heck, Schierholtz historically has hit better vs. LHP and is a good baserunner too. Think out of the box.<br /><br />Let's see, Crawford can be one of our below average hitters, batting 8th. We got Sandoval as the above average 3B, and Posey should hit as well as their 1B did (if not better), so there are the two good hitters.<br /><br />Franchez at 2B and Schierholtz in RF would be slightly above average hitters there. I think Belt could fit that role in LF. <br /><br />That leaves CF and 1B for league average and below average. Huff has been below average but if he can deliver mid-700 OPS, he would be similar to the Cubs lineup for average (since we have Posey). <br /><br />FYI, Huff since ASB: .270/.342/.399/.740, .299 BABIP, 4 HR in 178 AB, 20 BB, 30 K's.<br /><br />Coco Crisp would be actually good for the offense, a final piece, if not for one salient fact: He hasn't really put in a full season since 2005, really (though 591 PA in 2007, but I view 600+ as full). Out of his last 6 seasons, he has exceeded 500 AB only twice, 2007 and 2011. He could not even put together one season's worth of games in 2009-2010 (124 games).<br /><br />Pass.<br /><br />Plus, given how well Pill has played so far, I suspect that he'll be playing a similar role to Torres in 2009 and 2010, backup with good bat and good defense, who can maybe step up if necessary. <br /><br />Among CF, I can see the Giants taking a flier a la Uribe and Huff previously, on David DeJesus, who has been a good career OBP (plus the Giants nearly picked him up last season, got Guillen instead because of DeJesus' injury), and usually good defensively. Nate McLouth probably won't get his option picked up, so he could be another that Sabean will kick tires on. <br /><br />Cody Ross I would throw in here too, he's more of a platoon player really, he's never hit RHP that well, so we might be able to get him for a $2-4M deal this off-season. And, looking at his 2011 splits, the real reason for his poor season is that he's been hitting horribly against LHP, which he normally killed (career .912 OPS despite poor 2011).<br /><br />Changing his 2011 v.LHP line to match his relative poor (for career) 2010 line, he would have batted .253/.334/.448/.782 this season, which would be great for us in CF, heck, anywhere. And LHP batting lines are very volatile due to relatively few ABs.<br /><br />I think all three would be viable transition year 2012 before Gary Brown is ready to make the majors. <br /><br />Speaking of which, his play in the AFL could influence decision making here. If he has a great showing, they might be willing to hang with Torres as the starting CF, with the thought that if Torres fizzle out again, Brown might be ready to come up to majors by mid-season. Torres should not expect much of a raise, if any, for his play in 2011, so I don't anticipate him being refused arbitration and DFAed. Or maybe he might do a deal like Fontenot, DFA then signed to pre-negotiated deal perhaps.<br /><br />Also, I would think that Francisco Peguero might be ready by mid-season, he'll be in AAA next season, 24 YO, could get a trial by fire opportunity if Torres flames out again.<br /><br />Still, Sabean don't operate this way, I think he'll be signing some vets as backup options and/or competition for CF, and the vets above look like the best options.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-7505197989610099802011-09-19T11:14:47.928-07:002011-09-19T11:14:47.928-07:00Thank you to Anon, again, for correcting my Reyes ...Thank you to Anon, again, for correcting my Reyes mistake. I really thought he was, I should have checked, but took a shortcut because of time constraints.<br /><br />Ugh, Peter Greenberg. Wasn't he Edgardo Alfonzo's agent too? Bad memories there!<br /><br />I just hope the Giants don't sign Reyes, and I have no reason to think they would. He wants a huge long-term contract but hasn't even put in a full season in the last 3 seasons now. He has been terribly injury prone.<br /><br />Besides which, committing huge money to him would result in losing one of our young homegrown talents to free agency eventually, particularly now that Neukom is not around to maybe step up and invest more money into the team.<br /><br />Could Beltran and Reyes be good friends? Maybe this is his way of trying to make them a package deal.<br /><br />Either way, this statement signals hard that the Giants will have pony up, not just for Beltran, but for a leadoff type, and isn't Reyes the only free agent like that available this off-season? I am assuming a good leadoff option.<br /><br />It was a slim chance that we could even think of signing Beltran, but him and a leadoff solution that he would have to be happy with (and again, I think that means Reyes)? Not even the most Pollyanna-ish Giants fan would think that would ever happen.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-26143919811100876762011-09-19T11:05:52.621-07:002011-09-19T11:05:52.621-07:00Marc, very good point about very little grand stat...Marc, very good point about very little grand statements, thanks for pointing that out, yes, another sign that this was a forced retirement (heck, he has a whole litany of things lined up to do, some retirement, huh?).<br /><br />I disagree about the other point though about good investment. Neukom never appeared to be doing this out of investment gains, he seemed to be doing it out of love for the team. He could have pursued a greater share for another team long ago, he has the financial wherewithal to find another partner (like the A's been doing with tandem owners) who would let him be the lead guy.<br /><br />I still think he is still selling out everything now to spite the remaining owners, to show his protest of this move, else why make the point that he'll be keeping his season tickets, but not his ownership, after spending 17 years building up his ownership share from a little to a lot. And talking about getting shares when he was a kid?<br /><br />I still think Beltran set up a situation that tells the Giants that he ain't coming back unless the money is big. That is, you buy out his fear that the team needs a leadoff guy. If there was a lot of interest in him returning, he would not have put such a clear and definitive line in the ground, to me.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-10166839142855297012011-09-19T10:55:25.756-07:002011-09-19T10:55:25.756-07:00Yes, Shankbone, contrary to all the lies and misun...Yes, Shankbone, contrary to all the lies and misunderstanding out there, the Giants have always been committed to the farm system. It is just hard to produce a lot out of the system when you are winning and stuck with poor draft picks. Look at the A's, Braves and Yankees, late 90's, early 2000's. Very hard to do.<br /><br />Today, it is easier, though still hard, as more amateurs fall in the draft due to signability issues.<br /><br />But the Giants have tried to build within, it was just that we had really bad luck with Ainsworth, Williams, and Foppert. And Lowry.<br /><br />I agree that Baer has to realize the big hit, but fiscal conservatism and keeping our young stars in Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Posey, Sandoval, are mutually exclusive. I thought that Neukom would find a way, i.e. invest more money into the team, but now that he's gone, I don't know who would do that now among the investors.<br /><br />Yeah, good point, with those two bad contracts, Sabean has basically been moneyballing since Zito was signed.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-26162916451434418752011-09-19T10:48:42.662-07:002011-09-19T10:48:42.662-07:00Thanks for the great comments Shankbone!
Forgot a...Thanks for the great comments Shankbone!<br /><br />Forgot about the Beltran-Torres connection. I still think that Beltran, Posey, Sandoval, Belt in the middle of the lineup would be good enough to win a lot of games in 2012 with our pitching. And if Huff is back, Belt would be our 7th hitter. Too bad Beltran don't think so.<br /><br />What is wrong with Coco Crisp? Besides his injury problems, that is. I thought that he might be a good signing for that leadoff/CF spot, his OBP is league average, and with our pitching, we don't need more than league average to be a dominating team. But if you think he's not that good, then I could change my mind.<br /><br />Yes, thanks, hit the nail on the head with Sabean on Beltran, don't lose anything. <br /><br />And yes, Sabean does hold grudges, that is one thing I worry about him sometimes, but so far haven't seen anything detrimental happen from that.<br /><br />Though I don't know that he blames Boras as much as he would blame Magowan for foisting that horrible deal on him.<br /><br />But I agree, no love lost there. Boras and Maddux hung the Giants out to dry when Maddux got that deal he wanted from the Cubs and left the Giants high and dry.<br /><br />I agree that Dirty is the guy to trade this off-season, if possible. A young leadoff guy would be good, though Span would be even worse offensively than Crisp, wouldn't he? He's been horrible for two seasons now, and only gets us an additional season of contract control.<br /><br />I want a good prospect or young hitter for Dirty, I'm not willing to settle and trade just to trade, though. At worse, Zito could be our long relief out of bullpen, and rotation of Lincecum, Bumgarner, Cain, Dirty, and Vogie to start the season, and trade Dirty midway for good prospect, if possible, somebody will be desperate enough for a good pitcher to do that, I believe. <br /><br />If Minn gives up Span and another OK prospect, I would be OK with that trade.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-51735980674057469662011-09-19T08:30:27.504-07:002011-09-19T08:30:27.504-07:00So much for Beltran getting Torres square with his...So much for Beltran getting Torres square with his sage advice not to try and hit home runs anymore eh? <br /><br />The Giants are going to have to muddle through for a year hoping that Gary Brown is the real deal for 2013. So its Coco Crisp (who really isn't a leadoff guy), or Torres, or Torres/Ross.<br /><br />I think Sabean realizes you don't lose anything with positive comments for Beltran. The good quotes will come out once Boras fires broadsides at him regarding our record low offense. The last time they had to lock horns Sabean had a good one about Boras having enough money to buy a team that I liked - I think that was Matt Holliday.<br /><br />Beyond that, Sabes does hold grudges, and I think the Zito contract still sticks in his craw. No way he's doing business with Boras. I don't see any Beltran move unless we pull a miracle and make the postseason and then he pulls a Weaver on Boras. Both of those are less than 3%.<br /><br />I'm wondering if there is a trade for a cheap leadoff guy through Dirty Sanchez. Longshot, but Span on Minny has his concussion issues, and they have another guy in the wings, as well as pitching woes. So he's a slightly tarnished guy (that they shopped hard this year) who could play center and hit leadoff. As long as the concussion is OK, which is a big big question mark.Shankbonenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-45918606215197820732011-09-18T16:29:19.756-07:002011-09-18T16:29:19.756-07:00I see your point DrB, but the way I see it, Beltra...I see your point DrB, but the way I see it, Beltran's statement clearly signaled that there is almost no way the Giants can sign him, and that saves Sabean from having to explain to the media going forward why he wasn't able to sign Beltran. He can just point to this statement.<br /><br />If I were Sabes, this is the response he should give, agree with the statement, praise his acumen, as that frees him from having to answer the media about why he didn't sign Beltran.<br /><br />If he wants Beltran, he first needs to get a leadoff guy.<br /><br />No way to get leadoff guy because they need to take care of the pitchers first, Beltran was a wish anyway, as it would require increasing the payroll again to sign him, let alone raise again to sign leadoff guy, which in this market, is basically only Reyes.<br /><br />Thus, Beltran's statement = no way to get Beltran. <br /><br />Still, I agree with you, Sabean never says more than he needs to, and he certainly never kiss up to anyone, and he certainly hates ultimatums, as Beck and Baker learned to their sorrow.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-49525672886339158352011-09-18T16:08:33.185-07:002011-09-18T16:08:33.185-07:00I don't know, OGC. Sabes was surprisingly con...I don't know, OGC. Sabes was surprisingly conciliatory in his response to Beltran's comments, almost going out of he way to enthusiastically agree with him and praise his baseball acumen. Not saying the Giants are going to sign Beltran, but Sabes was obviously trying to build bridges rather than burn them, and Sabes has never been one to kiss up to anybody or cotton to criticism or ultimatums.DrBGiantsfanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10699322384438591979noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-23879078186382716022011-09-18T11:30:06.011-07:002011-09-18T11:30:06.011-07:00Thank you for the comments everyone! Especially w...Thank you for the comments everyone! Especially with the correction. I think the main point still holds, that the odds of Beltran coming back too a huge blow with these comments of his and assertions of what the Giants need to do in order to measure up to his standards. He clearly underestimates the power of a great rotation, his loss, hope he enjoys counting his money to the bank while the Giants compete for the championship every season.<br /><br />You would think that at this stage of his career, he would do all he can to be associated with a team that can get him to the dance every season. Obviously the money is more important to him.<br /><br />Unless, of course, he expects to sign with the Phillies, in which case, game on!<br /><br />Been busy with work, will comment soon hopefully.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-62522025780369722332011-09-18T08:15:58.923-07:002011-09-18T08:15:58.923-07:00Nice commentary there OGC. Some thoughts in respo...Nice commentary there OGC. Some thoughts in response:<br /><br />1. One thing I've been struck by in all this is what decade are these people living in anyway? Modern technology allows for instant communication with multiple people at any time. We keep getting visualizations of Neukom having to round up all 10 members of the Executive Committee into a cherry paneled boardroom with black leather chairs around a huge wooden table. The world doesn't work that way anymore! If an opportunity for a trade comes up, that's going to add payroll, you can poll the board members in a matter of seconds.<br /><br />2. In Bruce Jenkins' discussion of what he's gleaned from his contacts, the problem may well have nothing at all to do with player payroll, trades or any of that. There were hints that maybe the the front office was spending lavishly on non-baseball related stuff and maybe the the lady who was caught embezzling was a symptom of a deeper laissez-faire management style in regards to non-baseball personnel.<br /><br />3. I don't see it as an imperative that all homegrown players need to be kept at all costs. While the A's have taken it to an extreme, there is a role for trading homegrown talent that is on the verge of becoming expensive to leverage even more talent that is on the verge of breaking into the majors and is still inexpensive.DrBGiantsfanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10699322384438591979noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-63235841186361471312011-09-17T12:13:58.941-07:002011-09-17T12:13:58.941-07:00yeah, exactly my thought - the payroll, considerin...yeah, exactly my thought - the payroll, considering, is actually pretty low. The benefits of home-grown players.<br /><br />People get weird, $18M for Ross and Huff, while maybe a bit high, isn't THAT high. That's what players cost. Ownership should have a reality check, there's a bunch of very good players that are (now) on the cheap. That won't last, now is the time to take advantage.<br /><br />But you're right, the evil twins (I know nothing about them actually) seem very risk-averse. The ultimate expression of that is the Marlins. Who are a shame, and widely seen as one. I really do hope the Giants don't go that route.marcnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-26735504125100180142011-09-17T08:19:14.687-07:002011-09-17T08:19:14.687-07:00Positive: John Barr was hired in 2007 a full year ...Positive: John Barr was hired in 2007 a full year before Bow Tie. Timmy, MadBum and Posey drafted back to back to back. There is still a commitment to the farm system.<br /><br />Negative: These Burns sisters apparently have no interest in baseball at all. Rainy Day Fund is code for slow down that spending, we are perfectly happy to be a big fish in a small pond of regional bezball. Trust funders are into maintaining, not building.<br /><br />Positive: I completely agree with your assessment of Baer - and as a marketer first he must realize the huge hit they will take if they don't hold onto home grown talent.<br /><br />Negative: no way they can go after any good free agent on that budget. No Reyes/Beltran and definitely no Fielder. With amount of money/years those guys are going to get, most likely end result positive. <br /><br />I think Neukom was talking of a 140MM budget and beyond, ruling the west coast. Already smarting about having to raise payroll to 120MM, with front man getting too much credit anyways, egos came out. Still, with Zito/Rowand, Sabean has been operating on a 70MM budget in 2010, 90MM budget this year and next. That's practically Moneyball territory baby!Shankbonenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-80507345604678267542011-09-16T23:25:22.950-07:002011-09-16T23:25:22.950-07:00a couple of quick thoughts - sorry if you mentione...a couple of quick thoughts - sorry if you mentioned it already, OGC, I read none of the press conference as I figured it was blather - may have missed a comment.<br /><br />One is that, if Neukom was really retiring, the "proper" PR move would be grand statements as to his fabulousness, how sad it is he'll be going, all that. The lack of that public/corporate cliche is telling.<br /><br />The other is I have to think that Neukom is not stupid - what he previously saw as a good investment he no longer does. I do get that the Giants are only part of his wealth, but do you dump stock if you think it's going to do well? And an MLB franchise has historically been a hell of a good investment.<br /><br />Maybe it is just an F-U because he can, but you also gotta wonder if someone like Beltran sees the writing on the wall too, and what he's said recently is just a gentler way of saying "I really doubt it". Note that Beltran wasn't talking about his contract, he was talking about the Giants adding offense, i.e., payroll. That wasn't a shot at his teammates, manager, the city - it was at the ownership.<br /><br />No doubt more anon....<br /><br />More importantly, is anyone really noticing that the Giants are one game closer to the Braves than they are the D-backs? I sure am.marcnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-45688934410098657002011-09-16T20:13:24.172-07:002011-09-16T20:13:24.172-07:00Jose Reyes is not a Scott Boras client. Sorry.Jose Reyes is not a Scott Boras client. Sorry.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com